Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 26 August 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2019, Bournemouth 1 3 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool         3    9   +6       2.01    81.21     0.61    84.79     8.74    53.31    31.28    78.25    91.84    96.97    99.54     0.00     0.00  
Man_City          3    7   +7       0.03    50.13     1.88    89.87     7.87    71.29    63.99    92.39    97.88    99.36    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal           3    6   +0       1.49    72.11    -0.46    66.45     9.93    19.90     1.23     7.08    26.23    46.43    75.50     0.13R    0.01  
Leicester         3    5   +1       0.82    64.43     0.92    53.41     9.64     0.56     0.04     0.42     2.63     7.41    24.91     2.87R    0.41  
Man_Utd           3    4   +3      -1.16    32.61     1.44    64.92     9.69    23.06     0.88     5.43    21.35    40.54    72.14     0.14R    0.02  
Burnley           3    4   +2       0.60    63.74     3.16    43.95     9.31   -11.74     0.00     0.04     0.28     0.97     5.16    16.65R    4.24  
Tottenham         3    4   +1      -1.15    30.91    -0.65    69.79     9.53    29.02     2.04    12.37    40.12    61.37    85.81     0.04R    0.00  
Brighton          3    4   +1       0.18    55.85     1.37    38.57     8.71   -20.49     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.19     1.32    33.98R   10.57  
Sheff_Utd         3    4   +0       0.59    62.88     1.04    39.24     9.57   -22.19     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.45     2.31    33.70R   11.58  
Crystal_Palace    3    4   +0       0.28    57.83     0.59    48.62     9.39    -6.21     0.00     0.07     0.72     2.64    11.76     7.36R    1.39  
Bournemouth       3    4   -1       0.49    62.38     0.56    44.74     9.57   -15.39     0.00     0.03     0.33     1.24     6.42    15.78R    3.91  
Everton           3    4   -1      -0.84    38.06    -2.07    50.99     9.42    -3.26     0.02     0.19     1.41     4.44    17.44     4.33R    0.75  
Chelsea           3    4   -3      -1.02    35.09    -4.47    63.08     9.62    13.71     0.50     3.51    15.35    31.51    64.35     0.24R    0.02  
West_Ham          3    4   -3       0.65    64.62    -1.35    46.96     9.68   -12.93     0.01     0.09     0.60     2.20     9.50    10.81R    2.49  
Wolverhampton     3    3   +0      -0.75    37.51     0.49    47.05     9.27    -6.60     0.00     0.07     0.49     1.71     8.90     9.48R    1.98  
Aston_Villa       3    3   -1       0.19    53.73     1.33    36.87     9.63   -27.48     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.23     1.47    43.83R   18.12  
Norwich           3    3   -2       0.71    63.53     2.00    38.10    10.04   -28.67     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.41     2.30    39.62R   16.09  
Southampton       3    3   -2      -0.08    48.92    -0.21    41.77     9.28   -18.15     0.00     0.02     0.12     0.54     3.22    23.50R    6.69  
Newcastle         3    3   -2      -0.26    45.47    -0.71    46.04     9.20    -9.71     0.00     0.03     0.31     1.29     7.17    11.19R    2.44  
Watford           3    0   -6      -3.78     3.45    -5.47    36.02     9.13   -28.03     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.84    46.35R   19.27  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 25 August 2019, Swansea 3 0 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United     5   13   +8       4.78    94.53     5.97    81.99    11.06    27.41    27.30    44.91    79.12    54.68P    0.11R    0.01  
Swansea          5   13   +7       4.67    94.31     4.74    77.66    11.18    19.66    15.69    29.43    66.28    38.87P    0.29R    0.04  
Charlton         5   11   +4       4.08    90.53     3.89    63.65    11.41    -1.44     1.82     4.58    20.48     7.76P    6.74R    1.49  
Bristol_City     5   10   +3       2.90    82.97     2.61    70.43    11.00     9.21     4.80    11.34    40.70    18.30P    1.68R    0.27  
Fulham           5    9   +5       0.44    54.34     2.45    72.50    12.07    15.99     9.15    18.03    48.87    26.37P    1.68R    0.32  
Preston          5    9   +4       1.27    65.06     2.74    68.58    11.23     8.75     3.82     9.21    35.06    15.23P    2.59R    0.50  
Sheff_Wed        5    9   +3       1.66    69.94     2.28    66.52    10.96     4.90     2.58     6.41    27.85    11.17P    3.49R    0.62  
West_Brom        5    9   +2       0.63    56.70    -0.33    78.95    11.20    23.17    18.78    34.17    70.56    45.31P    0.23R    0.03  
Nott'm_Forest    5    8   +3       1.62    71.17     3.77    67.40    10.96     7.79     2.65     6.97    30.57    12.29P    3.01R    0.61  
Millwall         5    8   -2       2.74    83.44     0.36    58.49    10.56   -10.00     0.38     1.13     8.67     2.59P   13.47R    3.59  
Reading          5    7   +2       1.24    67.24     3.75    56.89    10.82    -7.82     0.30     0.96     7.64     2.25P   17.03R    4.92  
QPR              5    7   -1       0.73    60.82    -0.01    53.69    10.74   -16.73     0.14     0.51     4.43     1.16P   26.26R    8.10  
Blackburn        5    7   -1       0.53    57.94    -0.37    60.58    10.95    -5.19     0.70     2.05    13.11     4.43P   10.39R    2.66  
Cardiff          5    7   -2      -0.64    42.33    -3.19    65.16    11.81     0.89     2.61     6.26    25.41    11.08P    5.84R    1.32  
Birmingham       5    7   -3       1.25    67.56    -1.33    57.93    10.65   -10.83     0.39     1.16     8.11     2.45P   14.95R    3.96  
Derby            5    6   +0      -1.71    29.37    -1.27    69.63    11.07    11.08     4.30    10.20    38.64    17.98P    2.01R    0.34  
Middlesbrough    5    5   -1      -2.91    17.47    -2.52    65.29    10.47     5.48     1.55     4.35    23.46     9.65P    3.63R    0.66  
Luton            5    4   -1      -1.89    28.99     0.61    57.63    12.01    -6.07     0.76     1.89    10.69     3.94P   18.12R    6.04  
Brentford        5    4   -2      -2.96    16.85    -2.22    64.12    11.04     3.68     1.55     4.21    21.58     8.69P    5.54R    1.19  
Hull             5    4   -3      -2.61    20.52    -2.44    57.14    11.09    -8.68     0.40     1.16     8.17     2.67P   17.37R    5.19  
Barnsley         5    4   -5      -2.29    23.89    -4.17    52.66    11.32   -16.71     0.17     0.54     4.14     1.32P   30.49R   11.61  
Wigan            5    3   -7      -2.41    20.98    -4.86    51.68    10.66   -18.55     0.06     0.23     2.72     0.69P   32.45R   11.77  
Huddersfield     5    1   -5      -4.85     4.24    -3.59    47.26    10.86   -19.12     0.03     0.11     1.33     0.40P   48.39R   22.21  
Stoke            5    1   -8      -5.06     3.64    -6.87    51.07    10.55   -16.88     0.06     0.22     2.42     0.71P   34.22R   12.59  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 August 2019, Bolton 0 5 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Ipswich               5   11   +7       2.84    82.17     5.08    78.88    11.27    29.17    21.10    38.59    75.87    49.64P    0.16R    0.00  
Blackpool             5   11   +5       3.24    85.28     3.68    68.09    10.38    10.53     3.50     8.70    38.55    15.37P    1.05R    0.02  
Wycombe               5   11   +4       3.65    88.72     3.29    60.05    10.57    -3.72     0.69     2.13    15.14     4.34P    6.65R    0.28  
Sunderland            5   11   +4       1.76    71.74     0.22    83.72    10.47    34.33    36.40    56.52    88.00    66.95P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry              5   11   +4       3.43    87.17     2.96    65.16    10.40     5.29     1.83     5.28    27.74     9.89P    2.12R    0.06  
Fleetwood_Town        5   10   +4       2.00    74.50     2.35    69.28    10.72    12.73     4.35    10.87    43.28    18.67P    0.93R    0.02  
Lincoln_City          5    9   +6       1.94    72.62     5.75    62.10    11.29     5.26     1.46     4.14    21.66     7.89P    5.30R    0.29  
Shrewsbury            5    9   +2       1.64    69.71     1.22    63.29    10.27     3.66     1.09     3.59    21.95     7.62P    3.19R    0.11  
Doncaster             4    8   +2       1.24    66.26     0.05    70.52    11.10    13.65     6.01    14.05    47.79    22.50P    0.99R    0.03  
Peterborough          5    7   +3      -0.77    41.26     1.65    68.87    10.94    15.91     4.36    10.98    42.73    18.98P    1.31R    0.03  
Burton_Albion         5    7   +1      -0.14    48.91     0.55    67.95    10.71    12.19     3.36     9.00    38.69    16.48P    1.50R    0.04  
Bristol_Rovers        5    7   +0      -0.22    47.65    -0.65    58.90    10.41    -2.23     0.44     1.48    12.34     3.83P    7.78R    0.37  
Rochdale              5    6   +0       0.33    55.31     1.88    52.46    10.57   -12.16     0.12     0.43     4.55     1.01P   21.93R    1.86  
Rotherham             3    6   +0       1.44    70.11    -0.64    70.11    12.31    12.05     7.50    15.56    46.55    23.42P    1.89R    0.07  
Portsmouth            4    4   +0      -2.43    19.33    -1.48    71.37    11.19    19.49     7.01    16.25    51.77    26.88P    0.95R    0.03  
Oxford_Utd            5    4   -4      -1.58    31.90    -1.91    56.76    10.82    -5.78     0.35     1.10     9.61     2.85P   12.27R    0.86  
MK_Dons               4    4   -4      -0.70    42.79    -2.75    48.95    11.36   -20.66     0.08     0.33     3.08     0.85P   34.54R    5.07  
Tranmere              4    3   +0      -1.45    29.52     1.83    43.50    10.98   -24.11     0.02     0.07     1.03     0.21P   53.53R   10.26  
Gillingham            4    2   -2      -2.64    17.12    -0.63    53.84    11.06    -7.52     0.26     0.74     6.46     1.91P   18.95R    1.70  
AFC_Wimbledon         5    1   -5      -3.79     8.19    -1.67    45.59    10.12   -18.14     0.01     0.05     0.91     0.20P   44.39R    6.25  
Accrington_Stanley    4    1   -5      -3.29    10.78    -3.19    46.25    10.53   -20.70     0.04     0.11     1.30     0.31P   42.20R    6.39  
Southend              5    0  -10      -5.32     1.55    -7.53    44.86    10.46   -25.05     0.01     0.05     0.97     0.20P   48.67R    8.12  
Bolton                4  -11  -12      -3.16    11.66   -10.04    29.64    10.73   -34.18     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   89.67R   58.13  

Adjustments:
Bolton               -12
Bury                 -12



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 August 2019, Bradford 0 1 Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Exeter            5   11   +3       3.13    85.02     1.51    74.43    10.67    13.86    10.86    33.18    65.34    41.46P    0.27R    0.08  
Plymouth          5   10   +6       1.09    63.22     2.84    81.99    11.63    29.87    33.83    61.89    84.34    68.96P    0.07R    0.01  
Forest_Green      5   10   +2       3.09    84.53     1.83    70.87    10.86     9.21     6.36    22.48    52.01    29.42P    0.70R    0.21  
Macclesfield      5    9   +3       3.18    85.45     4.47    53.05    10.20   -14.21     0.13     0.84     5.35     1.56P   18.26R    8.93  
Newport_County    5    9   +2       2.59    80.43     2.49    66.00    10.55     3.85     2.36    10.85    34.43    16.03P    1.78R    0.64  
Crewe             5    9   -1       2.94    82.77     0.11    64.83    10.82    -1.31     2.01     9.59    30.48    13.86P    2.83R    1.08  
Grimsby           5    8   +4       1.62    71.67     4.55    59.95    10.52    -1.41     0.71     4.14    17.07     6.75P    5.98R    2.52  
Cheltenham        5    8   +4       0.89    62.14     3.62    61.62    10.73     0.31     1.16     6.14    21.80     9.28P    4.48R    1.76  
Bradford          5    8   +3      -0.41    45.11     0.77    75.46    11.45    19.67    14.70    38.84    68.09    47.79P    0.29R    0.10  
Swindon           5    8   +2       0.94    62.94     1.68    69.38    10.86     9.88     5.09    19.14    47.25    26.24P    0.98R    0.32  
Cambridge_Utd     5    8   +1       2.33    79.37     2.58    57.72    10.32    -7.40     0.41     2.54    11.75     4.16P    8.95R    3.86  
Crawley_Town      5    7   +1       0.48    57.35     1.58    56.11    10.62    -9.51     0.32     2.08     9.97     3.48P   12.03R    5.51  
Leyton_Orient     5    7   -2       1.25    67.24    -0.41    49.90    10.70   -21.59     0.12     0.68     3.55     1.10P   29.83R   16.89  
Mansfield         5    6   +1      -2.81    17.45    -1.85    72.55    10.83    16.29     8.83    28.42    59.02    38.00P    0.42R    0.13  
Salford_City      5    6   +0       0.96    63.94     3.00    47.88    10.92   -22.01     0.05     0.48     2.77     0.87P   36.87R   22.45  
Port_Vale         5    6   -2       0.03    51.59    -0.89    54.38    10.29   -12.33     0.15     1.25     6.73     2.27P   15.04R    7.01  
Colchester        5    5   -1      -2.46    21.48    -1.85    64.90    10.86     4.88     2.24    10.42    31.79    15.93P    2.56R    1.00  
Morecambe         5    5   -2      -0.89    40.53    -0.68    51.96    10.36   -15.24     0.10     0.75     4.59     1.44P   21.88R   11.35  
Walsall           5    5   -3      -2.03    26.73    -3.30    68.78    11.29     8.41     4.99    18.33    44.87    25.86P    1.37R    0.48  
Northampton       5    4   -2      -2.81    18.14    -2.00    61.05    10.78    -0.45     0.89     5.28    20.24     8.86P    5.41R    2.19  
Carlisle          5    4   -4      -3.12    15.77    -4.42    59.22    11.06    -5.64     0.81     4.24    16.30     6.96P    8.13R    3.66  
Oldham            5    4   -4      -2.65    19.67    -3.77    64.04    10.94     1.89     1.88     9.00    28.89    13.97P    3.40R    1.31  
Stevenage         5    2   -4      -4.37     6.64    -3.46    56.30    10.52    -5.91     0.28     1.99    10.05     3.87P   11.21R    5.05  
Scunthorpe        5    1   -7      -6.78     1.20    -8.39    61.17    11.94    -1.10     1.72     7.45    23.31    11.88P    7.28R    3.45  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 26 August 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 0 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Woking              7   18   +9       8.43    98.67     9.10    73.56    11.91    12.23    11.86    45.19    18.76P    2.24R    0.12  
Bromley             7   17   +6       5.29    92.65     2.67    72.64    10.93     8.80     8.78    41.07    15.43P    1.81R    0.07  
Halifax             7   16   +9       5.94    94.50     8.24    71.76    10.43    12.76     6.77    38.32    13.55P    1.64R    0.07  
Solihull_Moors      7   13   +7       0.60    55.68     2.63    75.68    10.87    20.98    14.05    53.70    24.87P    0.83R    0.03  
Maidenhead          7   13   +5       3.71    84.28     5.51    59.68    10.45    -5.58     0.66     7.94     1.84P   16.75R    1.39  
Dover_Athletic      7   12   +1       2.11    71.17     0.55    67.26    10.85     3.43     3.54    24.00     8.05P    5.31R    0.36  
Stockport           7   11   +3       2.78    77.70     5.17    59.49    11.70    -4.47     1.05    10.31     3.10P   20.09R    2.55  
Torquay             7   11   -1       3.23    80.99     2.11    53.95    11.65   -18.74     0.43     4.43     1.17P   37.11R    6.76  
Sutton_United       7   10   +2      -0.33    46.91     0.87    62.06    10.68    -0.36     1.23    12.15     3.66P   11.75R    0.86  
Barnet              7   10   +1       0.19    52.55     0.61    68.46    10.45     8.55     3.57    27.23     9.59P    3.61R    0.16  
Dag_&_Red           7   10   -2       0.89    60.07    -1.24    63.08    10.78    -3.00     1.39    14.09     3.95P   10.79R    0.92  
Notts_County        7    9   +4      -3.98    14.26    -1.40    79.50    11.43    30.72    25.57    66.81    40.02P    0.51R    0.02  
Wrexham             7    9   -1      -1.14    38.48    -1.84    68.66    10.48     8.37     3.87    27.51    10.06P    3.52R    0.15  
AFC_Fylde           7    9   -4      -2.47    25.23    -6.87    68.58    10.78     5.15     4.13    27.95    10.61P    4.07R    0.21  
Harrogate_Town      7    8   -1      -1.64    34.26    -0.93    66.56    10.93     6.60     2.94    22.80     7.70P    6.24R    0.47  
Hartlepool          7    8   -2      -1.26    37.95    -1.46    57.56    10.73    -8.60     0.47     5.81     1.50P   22.93R    2.46  
Eastleigh           7    8   -3      -0.40    47.36    -1.07    59.28    10.63    -6.55     0.62     7.62     1.98P   18.43R    1.90  
Yeovil              7    7   -1      -4.71    10.63    -4.14    70.81    11.27    14.54     7.25    36.84    16.81P    3.01R    0.17  
Barrow              7    7   -3      -1.73    32.83    -1.76    57.96    10.60    -6.90     0.43     6.13     1.69P   21.38R    2.35  
Boreham_Wood        7    5   -1      -4.09    13.41    -0.24    55.10    10.48    -6.10     0.19     3.60     0.92P   29.41R    3.89  
Aldershot           7    5   -4      -2.69    23.19    -1.26    49.24    10.00   -17.17     0.03     0.84     0.20P   51.81R    9.99  
Chesterfield        7    4   -4      -6.13     4.71    -4.79    59.32    10.83    -1.49     0.67     8.29     2.62P   17.92R    2.04  
Ebbsfleet_United    7    4   -8      -4.40    10.94    -6.05    58.69    10.84    -6.39     0.47     7.30     1.89P   20.12R    2.29  
Chorley             7    4  -12      -1.31    37.80    -4.40    36.59    10.41   -46.78     0.01     0.07     0.02P   88.74R   60.78