Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 10 May 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 6 May 2019, Man_City 1 0 Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         37   95  +69       8.39    87.98     4.51    97.41     1.05    70.65    80.77   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        37   94  +65      12.86    95.72    12.53    96.44     1.03    66.77    19.23   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          37   71  +24       3.47    65.33    -2.02    72.59     1.32    24.32     0.00     0.00    59.16   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        37   70  +28      -0.93    44.95    -3.95    72.08     1.22    29.06     0.00     0.00    40.84    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          37   67  +20       2.20    59.35    -2.59    68.79     1.31    20.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          37   66  +13       0.70    52.87    -9.40    68.46     1.01    14.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    37   57   +3       8.59    83.19     7.50    57.41     0.87     1.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          37   53   +8      -0.91    45.70     4.32    53.71     1.09     6.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        37   51   +3      -0.77    46.81     3.05    52.15     1.27     2.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          37   50   -4       5.20    72.92     7.68    51.59     1.32    -3.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         37   49   -6       2.89    63.27     3.69    50.16     1.28    -6.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   37   46   -4      -0.78    46.96     3.64    47.71     1.32    -3.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      37   45  -12       0.74    54.04     1.97    46.05     1.25   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Newcastle        37   42  -10      -3.11    36.30    -0.78    43.54     1.31    -9.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Burnley          37   40  -21      -1.63    43.09    -5.16    40.98     1.23   -21.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southampton      37   38  -20      -3.58    34.44    -3.58    40.11     1.19   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brighton         37   36  -22      -2.52    38.87    -2.32    36.43     0.88   -23.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          37   31  -37      -1.31    44.66    -4.67    31.39     0.84   -38.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Fulham           37   26  -43      -5.25    26.17    -5.69    27.19     1.27   -43.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     37   15  -54      -9.67     7.77    -8.73    15.66     1.05   -55.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 5 May 2019, Aston_Villa 1 2 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         46   94  +36      16.53    94.45    13.58    94.00     0.00    36.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       46   89  +37      10.76    85.03    14.26    89.00     0.00    37.00     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    46   83  +23      11.22    85.80    10.09    83.00     0.00    23.00     0.00     0.00   100.00    21.81P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       46   80  +25       0.58    51.68    -0.34    80.00     0.00    25.00     0.00     0.00   100.00    29.57P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     46   76  +21      -0.37    48.40     0.79    76.00     0.00    21.00     0.00     0.00   100.00    24.14P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           46   74  +15       0.34    51.31    -0.73    74.00     0.00    15.00     0.00     0.00   100.00    24.48P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   46   73   +8       1.85    57.47    -3.90    73.00     0.00     8.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    46   70   +6       4.28    66.40     2.23    70.00     0.00     6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   46   66   +7       3.49    63.56     7.98    66.00     0.00     7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swansea         46   65   +3      -3.64    36.54    -5.13    65.00     0.00     3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brentford       46   64  +14      -6.91    25.39     2.36    64.00     0.00    14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       46   64   -2       0.70    53.14    -2.06    64.00     0.00    -2.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hull            46   62   -2      -1.29    45.48    -1.28    62.00     0.00    -2.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      46   61   +6       2.49    60.15    12.95    61.00     0.00     6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Preston         46   61   +0      -3.48    36.95    -1.73    61.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       46   60   -5      -1.11    46.27    -1.25    60.00     0.00    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           46   55   -7      -8.71    20.05    -8.42    55.00     0.00    -7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           46   52  -13      -7.57    23.43    -7.83    52.00     0.00   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR             46   51  -18      -2.40    41.29    -2.25    51.00     0.00   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Reading         46   47  -17      -5.65    29.23    -0.82    47.00     0.00   -17.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Millwall        46   44  -16     -12.07    11.29    -5.87    44.00     0.00   -16.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rotherham       46   40  -31      -4.83    31.97     0.07    40.00     0.00   -31.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Bolton          46   32  -49      -4.72    30.36    -8.56    32.00     0.00   -49.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Ipswich         46   31  -41     -14.53     5.80   -14.15    31.00     0.00   -41.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 May 2019, Blackpool 0 3 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                46   94  +48       9.21    81.23    14.88    94.00     0.00    48.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             46   91  +41       4.77    67.34     6.42    91.00     0.00    41.00     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             46   88  +33       9.53    82.24    10.52    88.00     0.00    33.00     0.00     0.00   100.00    30.06P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           46   88  +32      11.79    86.74    12.42    88.00     0.00    32.00     0.00     0.00   100.00    21.12P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           46   85  +33       1.63    55.58     2.30    85.00     0.00    33.00     0.00     0.00   100.00    32.34P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            46   73  +18       2.97    61.18     7.88    73.00     0.00    18.00     0.00     0.00   100.00    16.48P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         46   72   +9       3.42    62.57     1.21    72.00     0.00     9.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Coventry             46   65   +0       5.96    71.92     5.34    65.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        46   63   +9      -4.75    33.09     2.25    63.00     0.00     9.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            46   62   -2       0.63    52.74     0.02    62.00     0.00    -2.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       46   61   +6      -4.03    34.95     3.07    61.00     0.00     6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           46   60   -6      -0.61    48.25    -1.92    60.00     0.00    -6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           46   55  -11      -2.46    41.07    -1.78    55.00     0.00   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   46   55  -16       2.14    58.83    -0.60    55.00     0.00   -16.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       46   54   -3      -5.71    29.34     1.57    54.00     0.00    -3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             46   54  -33       4.11    66.58   -11.18    54.00     0.00   -33.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              46   53  -12       0.00    50.84     3.72    53.00     0.00   -12.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           46   52   -8      -9.24    18.26    -5.74    52.00     0.00    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Southend             46   50  -13      -7.97    22.23    -4.94    50.00     0.00   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        46   50  -21      -1.10    46.63    -4.28    50.00     0.00   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Plymouth             46   50  -24      -2.35    41.48    -6.63    50.00     0.00   -24.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Walsall              46   47  -22      -5.65    29.25    -6.12    47.00     0.00   -22.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe           46   46  -30      -9.60    17.73   -17.68    46.00     0.00   -30.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Bradford             46   41  -28     -10.97    13.67   -10.75    41.00     0.00   -28.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 4 May 2019, Bury 1 1 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     46   85  +30       8.38    79.20    10.18    85.00     0.00    30.00   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             46   79  +26       0.85    52.88     3.17    79.00     0.00    26.00     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          46   79  +22       0.56    51.97    -0.71    79.00     0.00    22.00     0.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        46   76  +28      -1.53    44.15     7.00    76.00     0.00    28.00     0.00     0.00   100.00    39.80P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     46   74  +21       7.35    76.01    15.78    74.00     0.00    21.00     0.00     0.00   100.00    23.05P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         46   73  +13       7.06    74.71     8.61    73.00     0.00    13.00     0.00     0.00   100.00    22.40P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   46   71   +0       9.93    83.41     2.84    71.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00    14.75P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       46   70  +12       0.27    51.12     2.21    70.00     0.00    12.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Exeter           46   70  +11      -0.51    48.12     0.05    70.00     0.00    11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        46   70   +4       5.51    70.27     1.87    70.00     0.00     4.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         46   68   +5       0.99    53.87    -0.62    68.00     0.00     5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crewe            46   65   +1       3.19    62.31     3.15    65.00     0.00     1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swindon          46   64   +3      -3.05    38.83    -2.79    64.00     0.00     3.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           46   62   +7      -8.80    20.51    -4.36    62.00     0.00     7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Northampton      46   61   +1      -5.57    30.37    -3.90    61.00     0.00     1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       46   57  -11      -0.11    50.12    -1.45    57.00     0.00   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          46   56  -11       2.24    59.72     1.54    56.00     0.00   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe        46   54  -16       1.01    54.79    -0.90    54.00     0.00   -16.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     46   53  -17      -0.79    47.88    -2.98    53.00     0.00   -17.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        46   49  -16      -5.86    28.26    -5.29    49.00     0.00   -16.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    46   47  -26      -5.65    28.77   -11.33    47.00     0.00   -26.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Macclesfield     46   44  -26      -1.40    45.65     1.11    44.00     0.00   -26.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Notts_County     46   41  -36     -10.49    14.72   -17.46    41.00     0.00   -36.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Yeovil           46   40  -25      -9.84    15.93    -5.71    40.00     0.00   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 27 April 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 2 Halifax; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      46   89  +38       8.29    79.18    12.19    89.00     0.00    38.00   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     46   86  +30      14.54    91.68    17.42    86.00     0.00    30.00     0.00   100.00    20.73P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       46   85  +32      10.27    82.96    14.49    85.00     0.00    32.00     0.00   100.00    25.83P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            46   84  +19      13.07    90.12     7.20    84.00     0.00    19.00     0.00   100.00    23.27P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          46   81  +31       2.41    58.99     7.81    81.00     0.00    31.00     0.00   100.00    30.18P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     46   74  +21       4.34    65.43    11.09    74.00     0.00    21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          46   74   -1      12.84    88.82     1.92    74.00     0.00    -1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   46   67  +14      -2.01    42.51     4.91    67.00     0.00    14.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          46   66   +4       0.69    53.06     0.05    66.00     0.00     4.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      46   65   -5       3.36    63.03    -3.37    65.00     0.00    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow             46   64   +1       2.93    61.67     3.05    64.00     0.00     1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bromley            46   60   -1      -4.22    34.77    -2.50    60.00     0.00    -1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet             46   60   -5      -7.39    24.05   -11.97    60.00     0.00    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     46   60   -6      -4.65    33.02    -8.59    60.00     0.00    -6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield       46   59   +2     -10.92    14.82    -8.40    59.00     0.00     2.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Halifax            46   59   +1       0.91    54.24     6.26    59.00     0.00     1.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         46   59   -6      -1.38    45.12    -2.44    59.00     0.00    -6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          46   56   -6      -7.44    23.88    -7.05    56.00     0.00    -6.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Maidenhead         46   54  -25       3.45    64.32    -6.46    54.00     0.00   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       46   52  -12      -7.73    22.62    -7.88    52.00     0.00   -12.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Aldershot          46   44  -29      -9.89    16.20   -16.81    44.00     0.00   -29.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Braintree_Town     46   41  -30      -3.22    38.03    -0.75    41.00     0.00   -30.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    46   40  -22      -8.88    19.50     1.71    40.00     0.00   -22.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.00  
Maidstone_United   46   34  -45      -7.32    22.14   -11.88    34.00     0.00   -45.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R  100.00