Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 18 April 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 16 April 2019, Brighton 0 2 Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        34   85  +57      11.83    94.47    11.82    94.74     2.04    64.48    52.61   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         33   83  +64       5.11    76.98     3.70    94.13     2.55    71.20    47.39   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        33   67  +30       1.67    57.36    -2.66    76.80     2.60    34.79     0.00     0.00    54.78    83.85   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          33   66  +26       5.76    75.84     1.21    75.90     2.84    30.85     0.00     0.00    34.33    71.70   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          34   66  +21       4.28    69.48    -2.34    73.17     2.50    23.60     0.00     0.00     5.07    21.68   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          33   64  +19       2.96    63.65    -5.74    73.11     2.73    22.56     0.00     0.00     5.81    22.76   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        34   47   +1      -0.67    46.87     0.79    50.85     2.41    -2.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    33   47   -1       5.85    76.08     6.58    53.42     2.72    -2.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          34   46   +2      -1.63    42.69     1.88    50.84     2.49     0.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          33   46   -1       5.92    76.77     9.31    53.33     2.87    -0.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         34   42  -10       0.94    55.10     1.38    46.64     2.49   -11.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      34   41  -12       0.73    54.26     1.97    46.08     2.52   -12.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   34   39   -6      -3.21    35.22     2.30    44.32     2.53    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          34   39  -18      -0.74    47.34    -5.53    41.80     2.17   -22.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Newcastle        34   38  -11      -2.69    37.55    -1.45    43.18     2.50   -11.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Southampton      33   36  -15      -1.88    41.35    -1.68    43.06     2.88   -14.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10R    0.00  
Brighton         33   33  -21      -1.43    43.73    -3.07    36.48     2.32   -26.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.90R    0.00  
Cardiff          34   31  -33       0.91    56.16    -3.64    34.11     2.20   -37.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.91R    0.00  
Fulham           34   20  -44      -7.66    15.41    -6.20    24.29     2.47   -46.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.66  
Huddersfield     34   14  -48      -9.62     6.97    -8.62    16.24     1.93   -53.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.34  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 14 April 2019, Wigan 1 1 Norwich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         42   86  +34      15.25    93.90    13.49    92.43     2.59    35.47    85.16    98.00   100.00    98.45P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    42   82  +27      14.58    93.12    12.30    88.50     2.63    28.46    11.94    71.11   100.00    78.02P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       42   79  +30       9.51    83.21    12.21    85.91     2.56    32.14     2.90    30.40   100.00    48.67P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       42   73  +25      -0.40    48.16     0.60    80.48     2.51    28.30     0.00     0.49    99.93    31.43P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     42   69  +19      -0.64    47.31     0.55    75.84     2.61    21.03     0.00     0.00    94.93    22.50P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    41   65   +9       5.11    70.21     3.69    72.22     2.94     9.53     0.00     0.00    49.45     8.39P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   42   64   +8      -1.41    44.11    -3.50    70.78     2.55     9.82     0.00     0.00    26.88     6.42P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           41   63   +9      -1.13    45.31    -2.64    70.27     2.96     9.66     0.00     0.00    27.63     5.92P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            42   60   +2       0.42    52.02    -0.40    64.69     2.56     0.58     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       42   59   -3       1.38    56.01    -2.96    64.26     2.56    -3.41     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   42   57   +4       1.02    54.68     6.64    62.55     2.49     4.10     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         42   57   +1      -2.41    40.85    -1.44    63.04     2.59     1.77     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         41   56   +1      -4.34    33.35    -5.00    64.33     2.95     3.22     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      42   55   +4       2.86    61.89    12.32    60.56     2.64     4.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Brentford       42   54   +8      -8.45    19.95     0.97    60.42     2.66     9.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       42   53   -7      -1.52    44.40    -1.66    58.57     2.53    -7.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Stoke           42   52   -6      -6.76    24.68    -8.05    56.97     2.55    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR             42   48  -15      -1.36    45.15    -1.44    52.68     2.54   -16.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Reading         42   44  -16      -3.96    34.25    -0.66    48.06     2.43   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.11R    0.00  
Millwall        41   42  -13      -8.76    17.88    -4.86    48.04     2.86   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.47R    0.00  
Wigan           42   42  -17     -10.26    14.77    -9.06    46.96     2.54   -17.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.59R    0.00  
Rotherham       42   40  -26      -2.16    42.09    -0.35    43.53     2.32   -29.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.81R    0.00  
Bolton          42   32  -43      -2.76    38.57    -7.50    35.03     2.24   -46.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   17.59  
Ipswich         42   28  -35     -15.27     4.29   -13.25    31.53     2.35   -37.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   82.41  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 April 2019, Accrington_Stanley 2 1 Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                42   87  +44       9.94    84.23    14.41    94.71     2.54    47.33    87.96    97.30   100.00    98.18P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             42   82  +37       4.02    65.39     6.58    89.53     2.57    39.94     5.53    46.76   100.00    65.54P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           41   80  +33       4.30    66.16     3.31    88.56     3.00    35.53     4.01    30.19   100.00    53.33P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           41   80  +31      11.51    87.98    12.72    87.99     2.92    32.67     2.36    21.16   100.00    39.85P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             42   79  +24      10.55    85.68     8.30    86.23     2.59    26.59     0.14     4.59   100.00    27.01P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            42   69  +19       4.42    66.82     8.72    75.05     2.57    19.77     0.00     0.00    88.20    14.26P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         41   64   +9       2.13    58.63     0.77    70.60     2.97     8.56     0.00     0.00    10.88     1.69P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             42   61   +1       6.50    74.37     4.98    66.02     2.54     0.36     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        42   60  +12      -3.67    35.84     3.01    65.33     2.66    11.76     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            42   58   +1       0.68    53.18     0.96    63.24     2.56     0.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       41   56   +7      -2.67    39.43     3.41    63.00     2.96     7.21     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           42   53   -6      -2.68    39.82    -2.98    57.37     2.50    -7.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           42   50   -6      -6.88    24.03    -5.34    55.35     2.53    -6.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers       42   49   -3      -5.63    28.61     1.16    54.27     2.56    -3.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.69R    0.00  
Gillingham           42   48  -14      -2.69    39.80    -2.73    52.98     2.60   -14.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.32R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   42   48  -18       1.50    56.92    -1.61    51.79     2.41   -20.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.26R    0.00  
Wycombe              42   47  -12      -0.61    48.27     3.86    52.39     2.65   -12.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.02R    0.00  
Plymouth             42   47  -16      -3.22    37.63    -4.43    51.92     2.59   -16.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.45R    0.01  
Scunthorpe           42   45  -24      -7.44    22.97   -15.52    50.16     2.59   -24.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.04R    0.69  
Rochdale             42   45  -32      -0.12    50.67   -11.00    49.53     2.54   -33.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.78R    0.67  
AFC_Wimbledon        42   44  -22      -1.51    44.40    -5.17    48.47     2.48   -23.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.51R    2.28  
Southend             42   43  -14      -9.35    16.98    -5.86    47.98     2.61   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.97R    1.73  
Walsall              42   42  -24      -4.35    33.07    -6.55    46.73     2.59   -25.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.41R    7.13  
Bradford             42   36  -27     -11.34    11.47   -11.01    41.19     2.61   -27.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.49R   87.49  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 April 2019, Bury 2 0 Colchester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     42   84  +35      11.27    87.69    12.62    90.71     2.63    36.77    99.59   100.00   100.00   100.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             42   74  +26       1.76    56.59     3.71    80.89     2.63    28.08     0.32    80.51   100.00    86.73P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        42   73  +27       1.84    57.23     7.39    79.38     2.54    28.33     0.07    60.94   100.00    73.65P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          42   72  +22      -0.48    47.72    -0.13    78.75     2.62    23.84     0.01    44.73   100.00    63.84P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         42   71  +16       9.06    81.63     9.57    76.35     2.61    15.81     0.00    12.55    99.54    30.98P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     42   67  +20       6.38    73.95    15.57    72.72     2.62    20.33     0.00     1.20    89.40    18.82P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           42   65  +12      -0.26    48.67     0.79    71.15     2.60    13.00     0.00     0.07    71.52    17.76P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         42   61   +3       0.39    51.69    -1.22    67.19     2.63     4.04     0.00     0.00    10.45     2.07P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       42   60   +6      -1.59    43.63     0.09    65.61     2.57     6.17     0.00     0.00     3.90     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          42   60   +3      -1.20    45.54    -2.26    66.48     2.65     4.49     0.00     0.00     6.84     1.54P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        42   60   -2       3.37    63.70    -0.60    65.14     2.55    -2.44     0.00     0.00     2.77     0.49P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   41   60   -5       7.53    78.33     0.63    66.32     2.94    -5.78     0.00     0.00     7.23     1.11P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           41   58  +12      -7.95    21.27    -2.36    65.37     2.99    12.75     0.00     0.00     8.31     2.16P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            42   56   -1       0.47    52.55     2.24    61.66     2.61    -0.74     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      42   54   -2      -5.33    30.17    -4.52    59.81     2.51    -1.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       42   53   -6      -0.85    47.00     0.18    58.07     2.64    -6.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          42   50  -12       1.61    57.37     0.67    54.74     2.55   -13.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Port_Vale        42   47  -12      -4.46    32.61    -4.32    51.71     2.43   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe        42   47  -17      -0.45    48.77    -1.97    51.67     2.52   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     42   46  -19      -1.83    43.12    -4.55    50.51     2.50   -20.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd    42   45  -24      -3.23    37.06   -10.81    50.08     2.57   -24.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.52R    0.02  
Macclesfield     42   39  -25      -1.42    44.95     1.79    43.36     2.48   -26.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.32R   13.47  
Yeovil           42   37  -23      -8.62    17.75    -5.35    41.18     2.49   -24.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.90R   40.59  
Notts_County     42   37  -34     -10.07    14.48   -17.16    41.51     2.53   -35.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.09R   45.93  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 April 2019, Aldershot 1 1 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      43   84  +36       8.65    80.86    11.91    89.60     2.17    38.34    79.58   100.00    85.68P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       43   82  +33      10.63    85.04    14.45    86.57     2.29    33.66    14.50   100.00    36.84P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     43   81  +28      14.65    92.80    16.84    85.03     2.27    27.89     5.73   100.00    25.20P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            43   78  +18      11.93    89.08     7.25    82.69     2.23    18.86     0.18    98.91    23.21P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          43   75  +31       1.07    54.05     8.41    79.87     2.24    32.06     0.00    94.18    27.80P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     43   71  +22       5.25    69.29    11.75    74.65     2.21    21.30     0.00     4.61     0.95P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          43   70   -1      13.03    90.36     1.96    74.18     2.24    -0.88     0.00     2.28     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   43   66  +19      -0.85    46.55     7.16    70.88     2.29    20.12     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      43   64   -1       4.80    68.70    -1.71    68.27     2.19    -0.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          43   63   +7       0.34    51.48     1.08    67.21     2.24     7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barrow             43   57   -2       0.89    54.00     1.37    61.04     2.22    -2.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield       43   56   +4     -10.44    15.35    -7.26    60.70     2.26     4.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bromley            43   56   -3      -3.50    37.01    -3.54    59.78     2.25    -3.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet             43   56   -6      -7.00    24.69   -12.48    60.27     2.24    -5.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Halifax            43   53   -1      -0.58    48.13     4.78    56.20     2.09    -2.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         43   53   -7      -2.87    39.25    -2.92    56.90     2.23    -7.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red          43   52   -6      -6.98    24.22    -6.44    56.67     2.28    -5.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Boreham_Wood       43   51  -10      -5.45    29.05    -7.33    54.68     2.20   -10.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Dover_Athletic     43   51  -11      -7.49    22.91   -10.49    55.24     2.24   -10.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Maidenhead         43   50  -25       3.06    63.38    -7.06    53.35     2.20   -26.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    43   39  -18      -7.53    22.85     2.69    42.34     2.21   -19.18     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.03  
Aldershot          43   38  -32     -10.47    13.46   -17.74    42.03     2.25   -32.09     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    0.57  
Braintree_Town     43   34  -34      -4.90    31.34    -2.10    36.74     2.04   -36.30     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   44.20  
Maidstone_United   43   33  -41      -5.89    26.45   -10.57    36.61     2.19   -41.76     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   55.21