Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 5 April 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 5 April 2019, Southampton 1 3 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        33   82  +55      11.21    93.92    11.29    93.66     2.43    63.20    48.73   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         32   80  +62       4.43    74.08     3.47    93.34     2.85    70.49    51.27   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        32   64  +26       2.01    59.52    -3.12    76.24     2.77    32.66     0.00     0.00    42.72    77.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          31   63  +26       5.81    77.21     1.38    76.24     3.47    31.75     0.00     0.00    43.70    73.35   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          32   63  +21       4.29    69.64    -1.95    73.24     3.01    24.15     0.00     0.00     8.43    28.24   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          32   61  +18       1.96    59.19    -5.80    72.35     3.00    23.01     0.00     0.00     5.14    20.45   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    32   47   +1       6.37    78.27     7.14    54.72     3.04    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          32   46   +0       6.72    80.12     9.49    54.36     3.17    -0.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        32   44   -1       0.21    51.23     0.45    51.38     3.04    -3.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          32   43   +3      -2.22    39.68     2.38    50.97     3.14     2.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   42   -7       2.06    60.35     1.59    47.83     2.90   -11.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      32   38  -15       1.63    59.00     0.71    46.02     3.17   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   36   -5      -4.20    30.42     2.04    43.05     3.04    -7.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20R    0.00  
Newcastle        32   35  -11      -3.22    34.82    -1.57    42.70     3.11   -11.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19R    0.00  
Brighton         31   33  -14      -0.76    46.88     0.31    40.04     3.06   -18.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.38R    0.00  
Southampton      32   33  -17      -2.87    36.52    -2.67    41.37     3.18   -16.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.85R    0.00  
Burnley          32   33  -22      -2.59    37.74    -7.34    38.53     2.83   -26.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.03R    0.00  
Cardiff          32   28  -33       0.11    51.92    -4.17    32.99     2.81   -38.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.34R    0.00  
Fulham           33   17  -46      -8.80    10.93    -6.76    22.18     2.79   -48.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   11.99  
Huddersfield     32   14  -41      -9.40     7.39    -6.88    17.49     2.38   -49.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   88.01  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 April 2019, Middlesbrough 0 1 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         39   81  +30      16.73    96.02    13.39    93.24     3.47    34.20    83.95    96.28   100.00    97.16P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    39   76  +25      13.50    92.51    11.40    87.09     3.52    27.14     9.19    52.30   100.00    63.57P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       39   74  +29       9.49    84.27    12.47    85.76     3.45    32.23     5.92    39.30   100.00    54.98P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       39   70  +25       0.80    52.84     0.77    82.67     3.45    29.91     0.94    12.10    99.86    41.52P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    38   61   +9       5.36    71.71     3.81    72.33     3.75     9.47     0.00     0.01    53.28     9.49P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     39   60  +15      -3.72    34.77    -0.64    71.82     3.51    18.33     0.00     0.00    56.40    13.93P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           38   59   +7       0.11    50.70    -2.98    71.05     3.75     8.65     0.00     0.00    40.72     8.84P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   39   58   +7      -2.51    39.32    -3.35    69.55     3.39     9.81     0.00     0.00    24.91     6.20P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   39   57   +9       3.44    64.51     8.98    67.21     3.47     9.91     0.00     0.00    10.52     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         39   57   +7      -0.78    46.73     0.68    66.96     3.49     7.43     0.00     0.00     8.76     1.61P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       39   56   -3       2.74    61.78    -2.68    65.02     3.45    -3.96     0.00     0.00     2.91     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            39   54   +0      -0.53    48.19    -0.92    63.21     3.44    -0.76     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.16P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       39   50   +7      -7.78    20.78     0.72    61.56     3.55     9.92     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      39   50   +3       2.13    59.84    11.67    59.40     3.54     2.75     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         38   50   +1      -6.06    26.03    -4.84    62.98     3.78     3.99     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke           39   48   -5      -6.99    23.26    -7.55    57.45     3.43    -4.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       39   47   -9      -2.79    39.22    -2.65    56.31     3.46    -9.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
QPR             39   44  -15      -1.55    44.08    -2.06    51.59     3.37   -18.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.49R    0.00  
Reading         39   40  -15      -4.78    30.78    -1.47    46.81     3.25   -19.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.92R    0.00  
Wigan           39   40  -16      -9.04    17.05    -9.47    48.13     3.42   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.74R    0.00  
Millwall        38   37  -15      -9.25    15.50    -6.16    46.35     3.64   -17.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.53R    0.00  
Rotherham       39   36  -26      -2.06    41.98    -0.42    42.26     3.17   -31.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.69R    0.19  
Bolton          39   32  -36      -1.46    44.31    -5.41    38.04     3.08   -41.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.64R    8.02  
Ipswich         39   24  -34     -15.76     3.08   -13.30    30.82     3.20   -38.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   91.79  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 April 2019, Accrington_Stanley 0 3 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                40   86  +46      11.25    88.06    15.72    97.31     3.15    50.61    88.55    98.10   100.00    98.84P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             40   79  +37       3.86    65.28     6.87    90.15     3.18    41.18     4.12    44.69   100.00    66.42P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           38   76  +33       5.12    70.46     4.48    90.67     3.78    38.49     7.10    49.64   100.00    68.05P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           39   74  +27      10.56    86.62    12.31    85.83     3.48    30.33     0.23     7.20   100.00    28.92P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             39   70  +19       7.67    79.25     6.13    81.62     3.50    22.00     0.00     0.37    99.91    22.20P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            40   63  +16       2.45    59.82     7.56    72.47     3.21    17.77     0.00     0.00    80.45    12.73P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         39   58   +6       0.10    50.59    -0.26    67.59     3.55     5.92     0.00     0.00    12.15     1.87P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            40   57   +2       1.45    56.39     0.52    64.45     3.14     0.89     0.00     0.00     1.78     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             40   57   +0       5.78    73.07     4.44    64.15     3.09    -1.52     0.00     0.00     1.85     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       39   55   +9      -1.62    43.37     4.30    64.56     3.45     8.98     0.00     0.00     3.38     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        39   53   +7      -4.54    32.26     0.94    61.36     3.47     5.18     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           40   49   -8      -2.74    39.44    -3.26    56.42     3.16    -9.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.88R    0.00  
Gillingham           40   48  -10      -1.80    43.32    -1.59    55.55     3.23   -11.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.96R    0.00  
Plymouth             40   47  -12      -2.24    41.30    -2.98    53.98     3.18   -13.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.70R    0.06  
Shrewsbury           40   46   -8      -7.12    22.81    -5.90    54.17     3.16    -8.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.36R    0.05  
Bristol_Rovers       40   45   -4      -6.78    24.06     0.33    53.18     3.17    -3.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.52R    0.35  
Wycombe              39   44  -12       0.01    50.96     3.16    52.48     3.48   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.58R    0.74  
Accrington_Stanley   39   44  -18       1.49    57.27    -1.63    51.98     3.40   -20.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.06R    1.43  
Scunthorpe           40   44  -21      -6.89    23.97   -14.31    51.75     3.23   -21.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.04R    1.70  
Southend             40   42  -12      -8.37    19.23    -5.02    49.76     3.22   -12.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.24R    3.35  
Walsall              40   42  -21      -2.85    38.84    -5.64    49.49     3.25   -22.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.01R    5.49  
AFC_Wimbledon        40   42  -22      -0.81    47.36    -5.01    48.93     3.09   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.50R    8.71  
Rochdale             39   42  -29      -0.70    47.76   -10.92    49.29     3.37   -32.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.36R    7.68  
Bradford             40   36  -25      -9.39    15.71   -10.22    43.44     3.19   -26.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.79R   70.43  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 April 2019, Bury 0 3 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     40   80  +33      10.89    87.13    11.90    89.85     3.25    35.40    91.68    99.84   100.00    99.88P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          40   72  +25       1.22    54.75     1.27    81.88     3.26    27.38     4.98    75.73    99.99    84.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             40   71  +25       2.14    58.41     3.59    81.12     3.28    27.80     2.65    71.96    99.95    80.93P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        40   69  +26       1.04    54.13     7.00    78.91     3.13    28.47     0.65    43.36    99.81    62.23P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         40   67  +15       8.22    79.88     9.23    74.96     3.26    14.62     0.03     7.44    92.08    24.16P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     40   61  +17       4.45    67.81    14.59    70.11     3.22    18.31     0.00     0.28    54.34    10.87P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           39   61  +11       0.44    51.84     0.60    72.37     3.50    13.57     0.00     1.32    73.96    20.54P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       40   60  +10      -0.76    46.87     1.31    68.20     3.19     9.90     0.00     0.03    26.69     6.11P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         40   58   +5      -0.82    47.05    -0.67    66.92     3.27     6.01     0.00     0.00    14.45     3.05P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          39   57   +3       0.06    50.28    -2.07    67.93     3.51     4.96     0.00     0.03    22.95     4.97P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   38   55   -8       7.60    79.77    -0.66    65.17     3.78    -9.16     0.00     0.02     7.71     1.13P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           39   54  +10      -8.37    19.45    -3.15    64.22     3.56    10.94     0.00     0.00     7.00     1.87P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        40   54   -7       1.93    58.71    -2.82    61.65     3.18    -7.75     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            40   53   -3       1.31    56.01     1.93    61.56     3.22    -2.47     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      40   52   -2      -4.34    33.13    -4.13    60.53     3.19    -1.63     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       40   51   -6      -0.35    48.99    -0.18    58.10     3.18    -7.77     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          40   49  -10       2.50    61.24     1.48    56.41     3.19   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Morecambe        40   45  -17       0.41    52.75    -1.66    52.56     3.15   -17.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27R    0.02  
Cambridge_Utd    40   45  -20      -2.25    41.05    -9.28    52.46     3.12   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41R    0.03  
Port_Vale        40   44  -11      -5.16    29.35    -3.86    51.10     3.02   -12.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.58R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     40   43  -19      -2.28    40.91    -4.74    49.97     3.13   -20.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.22R    0.46  
Yeovil           40   36  -22      -7.44    20.90    -4.96    42.49     3.08   -24.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.41R   30.27  
Notts_County     40   36  -31      -9.62    15.04   -16.22    42.85     3.16   -33.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.77R   33.79  
Macclesfield     39   35  -24      -2.10    41.75     1.47    42.40     3.32   -27.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.33R   35.38  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 April 2019, AFC_Fylde 1 1 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      40   77  +34       7.27    77.67    12.26    88.06     3.13    38.21    76.57    99.95    84.09P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       41   76  +28      10.27    84.53    13.77    84.30     2.95    30.14    14.53    99.20    35.78P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     41   75  +26      12.23    89.67    16.13    82.44     2.93    26.95     6.87    96.78    25.78P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            41   72  +15      10.26    85.96     6.51    79.98     2.84    16.70     0.56    81.96    19.08P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          40   69  +29       0.34    51.08     8.27    79.33     3.21    32.12     1.43    79.85    26.34P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     41   68  +22       4.97    68.55    11.67    75.09     2.97    22.36     0.02    21.62     4.82P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          40   67   +1      12.86    90.97     1.85    74.23     3.13    -0.51     0.02    12.26     2.02P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   41   65  +20       0.51    52.12     7.61    72.95     2.96    21.63     0.00     6.39     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          40   62   +9       2.55    60.76     1.80    70.32     3.24     9.18     0.00     1.95     0.42P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      41   61   -1       4.34    67.16    -1.99    67.70     2.86    -1.10     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             41   56   -1       2.37    60.47     2.03    62.67     2.92    -1.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bromley            41   54   -3      -2.65    39.78    -3.38    60.87     2.94    -2.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet             40   53   -5      -5.85    27.62   -11.38    62.01     3.22    -3.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield       41   52   +1      -9.91    15.82    -7.63    60.04     2.92     2.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         41   52   -6      -1.72    43.33    -2.66    58.70     2.92    -6.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Halifax            41   51   -1      -0.06    50.36     4.40    56.31     2.71    -2.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Maidenhead         41   50  -21       3.77    66.07    -6.05    55.38     2.80   -23.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          41   48   -7      -7.99    20.54    -7.03    55.22     2.94    -6.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       41   48  -10      -5.85    27.39    -7.51    54.19     2.87   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     41   47  -12      -8.32    19.75   -10.87    53.77     2.93   -12.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.34R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    41   39  -16      -6.00    27.41     2.53    44.25     2.84   -18.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.63R    0.02  
Aldershot          41   36  -32      -9.91    14.18   -18.11    42.30     2.87   -32.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.66R    1.00  
Braintree_Town     41   31  -33      -5.80    27.02    -2.25    35.12     2.59   -37.38     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   55.25  
Maidstone_United   40   30  -37      -6.83    22.20    -9.96    36.17     3.01   -40.04     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   43.73