Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 4 April 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 April 2019, Chelsea 3 0 Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         32   80  +62       4.51    74.31     3.46    93.34     2.83    70.48    60.02   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        32   79  +53      10.49    92.96    10.89    92.79     2.74    62.31    39.98   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        32   64  +26       1.92    59.06    -3.31    76.30     2.77    32.77     0.00     0.00    43.27    78.19   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          31   63  +26       5.80    76.88     1.28    76.24     3.47    31.76     0.00     0.00    43.37    73.25   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          32   63  +21       4.17    69.29    -2.14    73.24     3.01    24.17     0.00     0.00     8.36    28.14   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          32   61  +18       1.90    58.77    -5.83    72.40     2.99    23.07     0.00     0.00     5.00    20.43   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    32   47   +1       6.45    78.37     7.28    54.74     3.03    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          32   46   +0       6.57    80.01     9.20    54.37     3.16    -0.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        32   44   -1       0.15    50.94     0.39    51.40     3.06    -2.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          32   43   +3      -2.30    39.12     2.26    50.97     3.15     2.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   42   -7       2.23    61.55     1.87    47.77     2.90   -11.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      32   38  -15       1.55    58.70     0.57    46.04     3.17   -15.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   32   36   -5      -4.07    30.96     2.27    43.00     3.03    -7.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Newcastle        32   35  -11      -3.27    34.18    -1.67    42.71     3.11   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25R    0.00  
Brighton         31   33  -14      -0.68    47.50     0.41    40.04     3.08   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.27R    0.00  
Southampton      31   33  -15      -2.45    38.03    -2.26    42.06     3.35   -15.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.61R    0.00  
Burnley          32   33  -22      -2.43    38.40    -7.09    38.49     2.83   -26.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.47R    0.00  
Cardiff          32   28  -33       0.25    52.77    -3.99    33.02     2.81   -38.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.22R    0.00  
Fulham           33   17  -46      -8.82    10.89    -6.87    22.18     2.79   -48.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   12.12  
Huddersfield     32   14  -41      -9.38     7.33    -6.71    17.46     2.39   -49.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   87.88  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 April 2019, Middlesbrough 0 1 Bristol_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         39   81  +30      16.46    95.92    12.96    93.32     3.46    34.30    84.07    96.44   100.00    97.31P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    39   76  +25      13.53    92.33    11.49    87.07     3.54    27.14     9.14    51.79   100.00    63.17P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       39   74  +29       9.17    83.45    12.03    85.80     3.46    32.29     5.87    39.62   100.00    55.98P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       39   70  +25       0.88    53.43     0.90    82.65     3.49    29.88     0.92    12.13    99.86    41.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    38   61   +9       5.39    71.99     3.86    72.38     3.77     9.55     0.00     0.01    53.84     9.44P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     39   60  +15      -3.58    35.19    -0.35    71.76     3.54    18.23     0.00     0.00    55.73    13.77P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           38   59   +7       0.18    50.71    -2.96    71.05     3.73     8.64     0.00     0.00    40.42     8.77P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   39   58   +7      -2.45    39.63    -3.23    69.57     3.42     9.82     0.00     0.00    25.55     6.21P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   39   57   +9       3.53    64.66     9.13    67.18     3.46     9.87     0.00     0.00    10.48     1.69P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         39   57   +7      -0.47    48.48     1.09    66.93     3.48     7.36     0.00     0.00     8.36     1.63P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       39   56   -3       2.60    61.18    -2.88    65.02     3.45    -3.96     0.00     0.00     3.06     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            39   54   +0      -0.44    48.54    -0.75    63.19     3.40    -0.76     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       39   50   +7      -7.66    21.06     0.91    61.56     3.54     9.91     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      39   50   +3       2.03    59.26    11.59    59.41     3.54     2.77     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         38   50   +1      -6.40    25.34    -5.32    63.02     3.80     4.06     0.00     0.00     1.42     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke           39   48   -5      -6.69    24.27    -7.13    57.36     3.42    -5.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       39   47   -9      -2.88    38.62    -2.78    56.28     3.46    -9.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
QPR             39   44  -15      -1.65    43.65    -2.18    51.62     3.35   -18.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.49R    0.00  
Reading         39   40  -15      -4.81    30.37    -1.49    46.80     3.26   -19.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.01R    0.00  
Wigan           39   40  -16      -8.91    17.15    -9.28    48.13     3.41   -18.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.71R    0.00  
Millwall        38   37  -15      -9.25    15.41    -6.18    46.36     3.65   -17.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.50R    0.01  
Rotherham       39   36  -26      -1.99    42.35    -0.41    42.26     3.16   -31.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.75R    0.25  
Bolton          39   32  -36      -1.43    44.50    -5.48    38.05     3.09   -41.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.58R    8.25  
Ipswich         39   24  -34     -15.89     2.86   -13.52    30.86     3.21   -38.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   91.49  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 3 April 2019, Accrington_Stanley 0 3 Sunderland; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                40   86  +46      11.17    87.72    15.59    97.33     3.14    50.63    88.92    98.32   100.00    98.92P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             40   79  +37       3.87    65.34     6.90    90.13     3.18    41.14     3.92    44.53   100.00    66.24P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           38   76  +33       5.13    70.55     4.58    90.67     3.78    38.50     6.93    49.58   100.00    68.11P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           39   74  +27      10.63    86.53    12.32    85.80     3.48    30.32     0.22     7.16   100.00    28.78P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             39   70  +19       7.63    78.98     6.02    81.68     3.52    22.09     0.01     0.41    99.89    22.59P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            40   63  +16       2.47    60.09     7.63    72.44     3.21    17.72     0.00     0.00    80.13    12.36P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         39   58   +6       0.18    50.99    -0.16    67.56     3.54     5.88     0.00     0.00    12.06     1.86P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            40   57   +2       1.71    57.41     0.92    64.41     3.14     0.83     0.00     0.00     1.93     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             40   57   +0       5.82    73.19     4.53    64.13     3.09    -1.56     0.00     0.00     1.89     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       39   55   +9      -1.85    42.75     3.94    64.62     3.47     9.07     0.00     0.00     3.60     0.59P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        39   53   +7      -4.74    31.46     0.72    61.35     3.48     5.17     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           40   49   -8      -2.71    39.28    -3.20    56.41     3.16    -9.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.89R    0.00  
Gillingham           40   48  -10      -1.64    43.92    -1.39    55.54     3.24   -11.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.95R    0.01  
Plymouth             40   47  -12      -2.19    41.32    -3.03    54.00     3.17   -13.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.43R    0.04  
Shrewsbury           40   46   -8      -7.49    21.65    -6.45    54.24     3.19    -7.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.33R    0.03  
Bristol_Rovers       40   45   -4      -6.52    24.85     0.73    53.13     3.18    -4.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.67R    0.29  
Wycombe              39   44  -12       0.03    51.05     3.15    52.47     3.51   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.97R    0.79  
Accrington_Stanley   39   44  -18       1.74    58.31    -1.27    51.94     3.39   -20.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.47R    1.44  
Scunthorpe           40   44  -21      -7.00    23.40   -14.51    51.76     3.23   -21.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.11R    1.81  
Southend             40   42  -12      -8.44    18.90    -5.09    49.75     3.22   -12.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.42R    3.44  
Walsall              40   42  -21      -2.96    38.11    -5.81    49.52     3.23   -22.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.50R    5.35  
AFC_Wimbledon        40   42  -22      -0.91    46.74    -5.08    48.95     3.09   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.46R    8.65  
Rochdale             39   42  -29      -0.69    48.12   -10.82    49.32     3.34   -32.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.86R    7.55  
Bradford             40   36  -25      -9.41    15.55   -10.22    43.41     3.20   -26.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.94R   70.60  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 April 2019, Bury 0 3 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     40   80  +33      10.80    87.26    11.83    89.83     3.23    35.37    91.63    99.91   100.00    99.93P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          40   72  +25       1.15    53.96     1.17    81.91     3.26    27.45     5.11    76.56    99.99    84.71P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             40   71  +25       2.27    58.82     3.83    81.07     3.27    27.75     2.59    71.45    99.94    80.50P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        40   69  +26       1.53    56.09     7.70    78.85     3.15    28.36     0.65    42.85    99.81    61.66P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         40   67  +15       8.13    79.51     9.13    74.99     3.25    14.64     0.03     7.65    92.54    24.82P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     40   61  +17       4.62    68.44    14.80    70.12     3.23    18.32     0.00     0.26    54.47    10.70P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           39   61  +11       0.70    52.97     0.92    72.30     3.53    13.49     0.00     1.26    73.23    20.11P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       40   60  +10      -0.81    46.80     1.15    68.17     3.19     9.86     0.00     0.05    26.24     6.05P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         40   58   +5      -0.68    47.38    -0.44    66.89     3.28     5.98     0.00     0.00    14.53     3.05P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          39   57   +3      -0.29    49.22    -2.60    67.94     3.50     4.97     0.00     0.02    23.01     5.06P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   38   55   -8       7.41    79.26    -0.99    65.22     3.78    -9.09     0.00     0.01     8.02     1.20P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           39   54  +10      -8.29    19.70    -2.99    64.24     3.56    10.94     0.00     0.00     7.05     1.98P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        40   54   -7       2.05    59.33    -2.67    61.66     3.18    -7.73     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            40   53   -3       1.35    56.25     2.04    61.57     3.24    -2.46     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      40   52   -2      -4.65    32.03    -4.60    60.59     3.19    -1.54     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       40   51   -6      -0.49    48.53    -0.40    58.12     3.18    -7.72     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          40   49  -10       2.48    61.35     1.45    56.40     3.18   -11.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe        40   45  -17       0.46    53.04    -1.64    52.54     3.14   -17.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34R    0.02  
Cambridge_Utd    40   45  -20      -2.16    41.54    -9.13    52.47     3.14   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.39R    0.02  
Port_Vale        40   44  -11      -5.32    28.69    -4.03    51.11     3.02   -12.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.60R    0.06  
Crawley_Town     40   43  -19      -2.09    41.89    -4.35    49.92     3.13   -20.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.51R    0.53  
Yeovil           40   36  -22      -7.39    20.97    -4.95    42.50     3.09   -24.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.51R   30.77  
Notts_County     40   36  -31      -9.54    15.27   -16.20    42.83     3.14   -33.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.37R   33.80  
Macclesfield     39   35  -24      -2.43    40.46     0.96    42.47     3.35   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.27R   34.79  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 April 2019, AFC_Fylde 1 1 Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      40   77  +34       7.36    78.06    12.42    88.02     3.12    38.15    75.91    99.92    83.58P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       41   76  +28      10.09    84.10    13.48    84.35     2.95    30.24    15.09    99.14    36.84P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     41   75  +26      12.45    89.91    16.44    82.44     2.95    26.94     6.92    96.79    25.58P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            41   72  +15      10.36    86.03     6.64    79.95     2.85    16.67     0.64    81.65    19.27P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          40   69  +29       0.54    51.73     8.49    79.33     3.21    32.08     1.41    79.97    25.78P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     41   68  +22       4.74    67.92    11.36    75.13     2.96    22.41     0.02    22.14     4.94P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          40   67   +1      13.15    91.27     2.35    74.20     3.12    -0.55     0.02    11.73     1.87P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   41   65  +20       0.72    53.00     7.92    72.94     2.95    21.59     0.00     6.56     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          40   62   +9       2.60    60.77     1.87    70.33     3.26     9.18     0.00     2.05     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      41   61   -1       4.43    67.73    -1.89    67.69     2.86    -1.10     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             41   56   -1       2.23    59.64     1.77    62.65     2.92    -1.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bromley            41   54   -3      -2.45    40.61    -3.19    60.87     2.94    -2.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Barnet             40   53   -5      -6.03    26.76   -11.69    62.05     3.21    -3.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield       41   52   +1     -10.22    15.51    -8.10    60.09     2.92     2.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         41   52   -6      -1.75    43.27    -2.69    58.67     2.90    -6.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Halifax            41   51   -1       0.04    50.71     4.48    56.35     2.72    -2.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Maidenhead         41   50  -21       3.81    66.38    -5.95    55.35     2.80   -23.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          41   48   -7      -8.08    20.71    -7.16    55.25     2.95    -6.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       41   48  -10      -5.91    26.93    -7.62    54.20     2.88   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.78R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     41   47  -12      -8.38    19.77   -10.93    53.76     2.92   -12.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.47R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    41   39  -16      -6.00    27.38     2.57    44.21     2.86   -18.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.57R    0.01  
Aldershot          41   36  -32      -9.83    14.19   -17.95    42.32     2.89   -32.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.61R    1.09  
Braintree_Town     41   31  -33      -5.95    26.37    -2.47    35.10     2.57   -37.40     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   55.44  
Maidstone_United   40   30  -37      -6.93    21.59   -10.14    36.18     3.00   -40.01     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   43.45