Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 1 April 2019 at 21:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 April 2019, Arsenal 2 0 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        32   79  +53      10.46    92.92    10.88    92.83     2.72    62.43    41.62   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         31   77  +60       3.91    71.47     3.50    93.21     2.93    71.87    58.38   100.00   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          31   63  +26       5.91    77.61     1.58    76.31     3.47    31.86     0.00     0.00    44.73    71.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        31   61  +24       1.35    56.13    -3.62    75.50     3.04    32.07     0.00     0.00    32.26    65.25   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          31   61  +19       3.06    64.94    -5.21    74.25     3.28    24.82     0.00     0.00    16.63    41.90   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          31   60  +18       3.92    68.57    -2.93    72.38     3.27    22.31     0.00     0.00     6.39    21.02   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    31   44   +0       5.02    73.91     6.63    52.57     3.31    -1.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        32   44   -1       0.22    51.29     0.44    51.40     3.04    -3.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          32   43   +3      -2.15    40.03     2.48    50.93     3.16     2.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Watford          31   43   -3       6.30    79.18     8.40    53.28     3.43    -2.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         32   42   -7       2.24    61.47     1.89    47.80     2.92   -11.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      32   38  -15       1.48    58.28     0.51    46.01     3.16   -15.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   36   -3      -3.80    31.94     2.48    43.58     3.22    -6.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Newcastle        32   35  -11      -3.25    34.55    -1.55    42.63     3.11   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27R    0.00  
Brighton         30   33  -11      -0.57    47.86     1.36    40.71     3.28   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.57R    0.00  
Southampton      31   33  -15      -2.50    37.87    -2.34    42.10     3.36   -15.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64R    0.00  
Burnley          32   33  -22      -2.58    37.76    -7.34    38.54     2.83   -26.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.55R    0.00  
Cardiff          31   28  -31       0.66    54.99    -4.26    33.01     2.86   -39.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.81R    0.00  
Fulham           32   17  -43      -8.54    11.48    -6.11    23.03     3.04   -46.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R    8.99  
Huddersfield     32   14  -41      -9.43     7.20    -6.79    17.49     2.41   -49.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   91.01  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 March 2019, Aston_Villa 2 1 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         39   81  +30      16.63    96.00    13.28    93.27     3.45    34.25    84.20    96.43   100.00    97.22P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    39   76  +25      13.70    92.77    11.74    87.01     3.54    27.05     8.78    51.08   100.00    62.33P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       39   74  +29       9.18    83.36    12.02    85.79     3.46    32.29     6.05    40.31   100.00    55.87P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       39   70  +25       0.94    53.56     1.00    82.65     3.48    29.87     0.97    12.18    99.87    40.92P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     39   60  +15      -3.64    35.29    -0.48    71.81     3.52    18.31     0.00     0.00    55.90    13.68P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           38   59   +7       0.10    50.71    -2.97    71.08     3.73     8.71     0.00     0.00    40.19     8.52P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    37   58   +8       3.79    66.35     2.95    70.27     3.98     7.93     0.00     0.00    33.33     5.90P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   38   58   +8      -1.28    44.44    -2.55    71.38     3.68    11.44     0.00     0.00    45.48    11.10P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   39   57   +9       3.27    63.98     8.83    67.21     3.46     9.92     0.00     0.00    10.66     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         39   57   +7      -0.72    47.02     0.75    66.97     3.48     7.45     0.00     0.00     8.55     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       39   56   -3       2.84    62.18    -2.55    65.00     3.47    -4.01     0.00     0.00     2.93     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            39   54   +0      -0.45    48.55    -0.76    63.22     3.44    -0.71     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       38   50  +10      -7.53    21.37     1.95    62.93     3.80    12.89     0.00     0.00     1.49     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      39   50   +3       2.11    59.68    11.66    59.38     3.52     2.72     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke           39   48   -5      -6.84    23.78    -7.36    57.42     3.43    -5.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Swansea         37   47   -2      -6.43    24.37    -5.95    61.26     4.08     0.88     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       39   47   -9      -2.73    39.15    -2.62    56.30     3.46    -9.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
QPR             39   44  -15      -1.59    43.88    -2.08    51.68     3.37   -18.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.54R    0.00  
Reading         39   40  -15      -4.74    30.87    -1.44    46.79     3.26   -19.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.29R    0.00  
Wigan           39   40  -16      -8.99    17.00    -9.43    48.16     3.41   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.68R    0.00  
Millwall        38   37  -15      -9.34    15.35    -6.26    46.35     3.64   -17.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.66R    0.01  
Rotherham       39   36  -26      -2.27    41.00    -0.81    42.31     3.16   -31.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.09R    0.24  
Bolton          39   32  -36      -1.50    43.82    -5.56    38.01     3.07   -41.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.77R    8.26  
Ipswich         39   24  -34     -15.78     3.00   -13.35    30.83     3.20   -38.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   91.48  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 March 2019, Accrington_Stanley 0 1 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                40   86  +46      11.26    87.99    15.78    97.28     3.16    50.55    90.71    98.60   100.00    99.11P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             40   79  +37       3.86    65.28     6.92    90.16     3.17    41.20     4.27    52.72   100.00    71.00P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           39   74  +27      10.52    86.53    12.16    85.81     3.47    30.32     0.28     8.61   100.00    30.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           37   73  +30       4.90    69.85     3.72    89.43     4.05    36.07     4.74    39.53   100.00    61.02P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             39   70  +19       7.67    79.20     6.04    81.59     3.53    21.97     0.01     0.55    99.89    22.78P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            40   63  +16       2.56    60.23     7.83    72.43     3.22    17.74     0.00     0.00    80.11    12.68P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         39   58   +6       0.13    50.64    -0.23    67.59     3.53     5.92     0.00     0.00    12.09     1.83P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            40   57   +2       1.71    57.39     0.89    64.42     3.13     0.83     0.00     0.00     1.92     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             40   57   +0       5.85    73.18     4.61    64.17     3.10    -1.50     0.00     0.00     1.94     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       39   55   +9      -1.72    42.97     4.20    64.66     3.47     9.13     0.00     0.00     3.57     0.60P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        39   53   +7      -4.60    32.05     0.87    61.38     3.48     5.24     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.12P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           40   49   -8      -2.90    38.70    -3.46    56.46     3.14    -9.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.92R    0.00  
Gillingham           40   48  -10      -1.82    43.09    -1.72    55.54     3.23   -11.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.10R    0.00  
Plymouth             40   47  -12      -2.40    40.52    -3.24    53.97     3.17   -13.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.19R    0.03  
Shrewsbury           40   46   -8      -7.10    23.05    -5.90    54.17     3.18    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.80R    0.03  
Bristol_Rovers       40   45   -4      -6.68    24.21     0.50    53.14     3.17    -4.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.04R    0.30  
Wycombe              39   44  -12       0.15    51.44     3.28    52.45     3.47   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.45R    0.81  
Accrington_Stanley   38   44  -15       1.39    56.90    -0.94    52.98     3.61   -18.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.94R    0.82  
Scunthorpe           40   44  -21      -6.85    24.04   -14.32    51.78     3.22   -21.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.98R    1.60  
Southend             40   42  -12      -8.23    19.38    -4.86    49.76     3.22   -12.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.12R    3.53  
Walsall              40   42  -21      -3.01    37.82    -5.82    49.46     3.22   -22.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.34R    5.53  
AFC_Wimbledon        40   42  -22      -0.95    46.77    -5.29    48.94     3.07   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.49R    8.78  
Rochdale             39   42  -29      -0.62    48.35   -10.78    49.31     3.33   -32.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.78R    7.84  
Bradford             40   36  -25      -9.39    15.57   -10.26    43.44     3.21   -26.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.86R   70.71  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 March 2019, Bury 1 3 Swindon; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     40   80  +33      10.85    87.28    11.91    89.81     3.22    35.34    85.14    99.73   100.00    99.82P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          40   72  +25       1.12    54.00     1.14    81.87     3.27    27.38     4.26    69.46    99.99    80.11P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             39   71  +28       2.40    59.32     4.87    83.52     3.49    32.36     9.93    86.19    99.99    90.79P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        40   69  +26       1.26    55.14     7.33    78.95     3.14    28.51     0.52    33.95    99.83    55.98P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         39   67  +17       8.50    81.18     9.66    76.12     3.51    16.28     0.16     9.89    95.30    27.49P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     40   61  +17       4.79    69.15    15.05    70.09     3.23    18.30     0.00     0.13    54.51    10.45P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           39   61  +11       0.82    53.53     1.17    72.30     3.51    13.44     0.00     0.63    73.57    19.06P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       40   60  +10      -0.60    47.49     1.47    68.15     3.19     9.83     0.00     0.02    26.46     5.82P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         40   58   +5      -0.59    47.80    -0.33    66.82     3.27     5.91     0.00     0.00    13.88     2.80P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          39   57   +3       0.16    50.62    -1.89    67.89     3.50     4.93     0.00     0.01    22.96     5.18P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   38   55   -8       7.37    79.24    -0.97    65.24     3.77    -9.08     0.00     0.00     8.16     1.17P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        40   54   -7       1.98    58.75    -2.76    61.67     3.20    -7.71     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            40   53   -3       1.29    55.81     1.99    61.59     3.21    -2.43     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      40   52   -2      -4.57    32.52    -4.38    60.50     3.16    -1.68     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           38   51   +8      -9.05    17.15    -3.69    62.77     3.82     9.21     0.00     0.00     4.15     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       40   51   -6      -0.35    48.96    -0.16    58.19     3.18    -7.64     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          40   49  -10       2.46    61.37     1.40    56.44     3.18   -11.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe        40   45  -17       0.39    52.49    -1.73    52.58     3.15   -17.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25R    0.02  
Port_Vale        40   44  -11      -5.17    29.12    -3.83    51.07     3.01   -12.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.55R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     40   43  -19      -2.45    40.33    -4.89    50.00     3.13   -20.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.92R    0.43  
Cambridge_Utd    39   42  -23      -3.06    37.55   -11.17    49.91     3.32   -25.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.70R    0.62  
Yeovil           40   36  -22      -7.54    20.58    -5.18    42.52     3.09   -24.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.37R   30.18  
Notts_County     40   36  -31      -9.64    14.88   -16.27    42.81     3.15   -33.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.39R   34.02  
Macclesfield     39   35  -24      -2.27    41.08     1.23    42.45     3.33   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.82R   34.69  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 30 March 2019, Aldershot 0 0 AFC_Fylde; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      39   77  +35       8.58    82.05    13.11    89.70     3.42    39.61    84.66    99.96    89.60P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       41   76  +28      10.32    84.81    13.85    84.34     2.96    30.19     9.04    98.62    31.86P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     41   75  +26      12.37    89.75    16.33    82.47     2.96    26.99     4.07    95.42    23.45P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            41   72  +15      10.20    85.67     6.42    80.02     2.85    16.75     0.32    78.39    18.74P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          39   68  +29       1.10    54.50     8.81    80.22     3.47    32.87     1.85    81.36    27.05P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     41   68  +22       4.95    68.75    11.68    75.08     2.95    22.34     0.01    18.35     4.10P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          39   67   +4      13.37    92.09     3.60    75.73     3.44     2.71     0.05    21.19     3.51P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   41   65  +20       0.60    52.43     7.79    72.97     2.96    21.64     0.00     5.19     1.34P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          40   62   +9       2.64    60.97     1.95    70.27     3.25     9.10     0.00     1.49     0.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      41   61   -1       4.25    67.15    -2.11    67.68     2.87    -1.10     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             41   56   -1       2.41    60.37     2.11    62.64     2.90    -1.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield       41   52   +1     -10.24    14.92    -8.11    60.12     2.92     2.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         41   52   -6      -1.79    43.12    -2.77    58.70     2.92    -6.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Halifax            41   51   -1       0.01    50.84     4.48    56.34     2.71    -2.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Bromley            40   51   -4      -3.85    34.69    -3.78    58.94     3.23    -4.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Barnet             39   50   -8      -6.15    25.85   -12.58    60.12     3.49    -7.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Maidenhead         41   50  -21       3.76    66.02    -6.05    55.35     2.82   -23.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       41   48  -10      -5.83    27.36    -7.52    54.15     2.88   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.87R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          40   47   -7      -7.89    20.54    -7.43    55.08     3.21    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     41   47  -12      -8.47    19.21   -11.05    53.78     2.92   -12.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.52R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    41   39  -16      -6.23    27.15     2.18    44.29     2.87   -18.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.16R    0.01  
Aldershot          41   36  -32     -10.01    13.69   -18.19    42.33     2.89   -32.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.50R    1.05  
Braintree_Town     41   31  -33      -6.00    26.20    -2.63    35.12     2.57   -37.40     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   55.91  
Maidstone_United   40   30  -37      -6.91    21.82   -10.09    36.23     3.00   -39.94     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   43.03