Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 25 March 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 March 2019, Everton 2 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        31   76  +52       9.42    90.90    10.81    91.60     3.05    61.97    34.20    99.94   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         30   74  +58       3.53    69.43     3.72    92.88     3.05    72.64    65.80    99.97   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   61  +25       1.98    59.44    -3.86    76.45     3.29    32.41     0.00     0.08    46.59    77.40   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          30   60  +24       5.24    74.97     1.06    75.49     3.70    31.14     0.00     0.01    35.01    66.47    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          30   58  +18       2.25    61.03    -4.97    73.47     3.54    25.13     0.00     0.00    13.45    37.58    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          30   57  +17       3.01    64.63    -2.86    71.54     3.49    22.47     0.00     0.00     4.96    18.55    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    30   44   +2       5.59    76.20     7.42    54.14     3.60     0.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00  
Watford          30   43   -2       6.85    81.36     8.01    53.82     3.62    -2.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         31   42   -5       2.92    64.68     2.75    49.42     3.25    -9.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        31   41   -3      -0.52    47.99    -0.06    50.09     3.34    -4.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          31   40   +1      -3.15    34.77     1.61    49.12     3.43     0.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      31   38  -13       2.18    61.89     1.40    47.09     3.46   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Newcastle        31   35   -9      -2.81    36.22    -1.07    43.37     3.32   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   33   -5      -4.45    28.92     1.92    42.69     3.47    -7.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.68R    0.00  
Brighton         29   33  -10       0.49    53.64     2.00    42.21     3.56   -15.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.22R    0.00  
Southampton      30   30  -16      -3.92    30.79    -2.86    40.19     3.62   -17.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.37R    0.00  
Burnley          31   30  -24      -3.59    32.20    -8.25    36.80     3.14   -28.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.47R    0.00  
Cardiff          30   28  -30       1.28    58.18    -4.63    33.73     3.09   -39.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.17R    0.00  
Fulham           31   17  -41      -8.13    12.45    -6.17    23.22     3.15   -47.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.94R   12.67  
Huddersfield     31   14  -39      -8.86     8.52    -5.98    18.19     2.64   -48.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   87.33  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Aston_Villa 3 0 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         38   78  +29      15.32    94.93    12.77    91.33     3.71    32.80    65.65    89.48   100.00    91.87P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       38   74  +30      10.51    87.22    13.00    87.69     3.71    34.05    23.10    64.71   100.00    74.00P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    38   73  +24      12.67    91.17    11.73    85.94     3.78    26.86     9.94    36.47   100.00    51.06P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       38   67  +24       0.08    49.95     1.23    81.76     3.72    29.95     1.31     9.30    99.57    38.56P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   37   58   +9      -0.35    48.50    -2.10    73.13     3.94    12.96     0.00     0.03    66.66    16.72P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     38   57  +14      -4.60    31.43    -0.42    70.78     3.80    18.23     0.00     0.00    46.87    11.40P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         38   57   +8       0.50    52.15     1.50    68.45     3.75     8.61     0.00     0.00    19.84     3.84P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   56   +2       0.68    53.04    -4.73    69.89     3.94     4.36     0.00     0.00    30.49     6.20P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    36   55   +7       2.46    60.85     2.36    68.07     4.19     6.09     0.00     0.00    19.98     3.50P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       38   55   -3       2.89    62.56    -2.89    65.12     3.68    -4.34     0.00     0.00     4.34     0.67P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   38   54   +8       2.23    59.87     8.67    65.56     3.71     8.87     0.00     0.00     6.39     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            38   51   -2      -1.35    44.85    -1.61    61.60     3.71    -2.72     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.11P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      38   50   +4       2.84    62.90    11.48    60.06     3.73     2.61     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   49  +10      -7.41    21.28     1.63    63.48     4.04    13.19     0.00     0.00     3.18     0.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         36   47   -1      -5.28    28.58    -5.28    62.51     4.29     1.70     0.00     0.00     1.92     0.39P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke           38   47   -5      -6.53    24.68    -7.36    57.99     3.70    -4.74     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       38   47   -8      -2.04    42.00    -2.74    57.20     3.69    -9.48     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
QPR             38   44  -14      -0.39    48.97    -1.51    53.79     3.66   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19R    0.00  
Wigan           38   39  -16      -8.92    16.87    -9.70    48.55     3.73   -18.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.05R    0.00  
Millwall        37   37  -14      -8.58    16.98    -6.34    47.14     3.83   -17.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.66R    0.00  
Reading         38   37  -16      -6.04    25.47    -1.91    44.96     3.52   -20.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.95R    0.03  
Rotherham       38   36  -21      -2.67    39.16     0.81    43.18     3.40   -27.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.68R    0.18  
Bolton          38   29  -37      -2.95    36.72    -6.20    35.71     3.30   -43.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.68R   28.18  
Ipswich         38   24  -32     -15.08     3.43   -12.39    32.16     3.51   -36.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.79R   71.60  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 March 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 2 4 Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                39   83  +45      10.20    86.06    15.61    96.02     3.44    50.08    79.60    95.35   100.00    97.03P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             39   78  +37       4.49    67.87     7.38    91.23     3.42    42.15    12.87    62.49   100.00    77.47P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           39   74  +27      10.49    86.20    12.13    85.81     3.49    30.36     0.59     7.40   100.00    30.17P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           37   73  +30       4.90    70.16     3.68    89.46     4.00    36.10     6.93    34.50   100.00    58.39P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             38   67  +18       6.61    75.97     5.87    80.54     3.76    21.82     0.01     0.27    99.79    22.34P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         39   58   +6       0.40    51.59     0.16    67.55     3.55     5.86     0.00     0.00    24.52     3.45P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            38   57  +11       1.86    58.16     6.56    69.66     3.78    13.40     0.00     0.00    56.27     8.45P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            39   56   +2       1.98    58.84     0.72    65.09     3.40     1.30     0.00     0.00     8.48     1.16P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             39   56   +0       6.10    74.31     4.30    63.86     3.28    -2.44     0.00     0.00     4.29     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        39   53   +7      -4.58    31.79     0.89    61.33     3.47     5.15     0.00     0.00     1.62     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       38   52   +8      -2.81    38.54     3.91    63.00     3.73     8.11     0.00     0.00     4.96     0.78P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           39   47  -10      -1.31    45.08    -1.43    56.37     3.53   -10.38     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.73R    0.03  
Oxford_Utd           39   46   -9      -3.87    34.34    -3.51    55.13     3.45    -9.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.59R    0.07  
Plymouth             39   46  -12      -2.09    41.85    -3.41    54.03     3.44   -14.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.79R    0.14  
Bristol_Rovers       38   45   +0      -5.72    27.01     1.78    55.43     3.69    -0.64     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    4.53R    0.10  
Wycombe              38   44  -11       0.90    54.66     3.38    53.61     3.79   -13.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.41R    0.60  
Accrington_Stanley   37   44  -14       2.25    60.46    -0.57    54.33     3.89   -17.09     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    12.98R    0.50  
Scunthorpe           39   44  -20      -5.89    27.12   -13.99    53.59     3.51   -20.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.49R    0.82  
Shrewsbury           39   43  -10      -8.06    19.43    -6.91    52.32     3.46   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.63R    0.77  
Southend             39   42  -10      -7.76    20.74    -4.17    51.34     3.51   -10.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.83R    1.65  
Walsall              39   42  -19      -2.35    40.80    -5.10    50.44     3.50   -20.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.89R    3.71  
Rochdale             38   41  -29      -0.51    48.60   -11.15    49.24     3.60   -33.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.95R    9.64  
AFC_Wimbledon        39   39  -23      -2.41    40.18    -6.02    46.85     3.33   -25.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.10R   25.76  
Bradford             39   36  -24      -8.58    17.53   -10.11    44.27     3.41   -25.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.07R   56.20  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 March 2019, Carlisle 2 2 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     39   79  +33      11.63    89.14    12.41    91.29     3.42    37.10    83.73    99.95   100.00    99.96P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             38   71  +30       3.32    63.21     6.00    85.65     3.76    35.56    15.19    96.55    99.99    97.70P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          39   69  +24       0.13    50.16     0.88    80.43     3.52    26.65     1.02    65.69    99.79    77.48P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        39   66  +23       1.09    54.37     6.42    76.90     3.42    24.93     0.04    22.75    98.07    46.30P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         38   64  +14       8.30    80.93     8.76    74.38     3.79    13.12     0.03     7.44    85.62    22.93P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     39   61  +18       5.63    72.52    15.28    71.40     3.47    19.22     0.00     1.76    68.96    14.44P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           38   61  +14       1.04    54.41     2.40    74.04     3.78    17.01     0.00     5.75    85.95    27.93P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         39   58   +8      -0.72    47.06     0.36    68.13     3.53     8.78     0.00     0.09    26.06     6.01P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       39   57   +9      -1.94    42.00     0.89    66.54     3.45     8.83     0.00     0.02    13.72     2.96P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          38   54   +1      -1.09    45.56    -3.42    65.64     3.74     1.94     0.00     0.01     9.19     2.02P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        39   54   -4       2.40    60.71    -1.11    63.67     3.46    -3.77     0.00     0.00     2.72     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            39   53   -1       2.03    59.14     3.02    63.47     3.50     0.31     0.00     0.00     2.68     0.41P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      39   52   -1      -3.49    36.05    -3.96    62.41     3.45     0.13     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.22P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   37   52  -10       6.56    77.21    -1.72    63.35     4.02   -11.41     0.00     0.00     3.62     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          39   49   -8       2.88    63.17     2.12    57.26     3.38    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   48   +6      -9.54    15.37    -4.03    61.68     4.07     7.96     0.00     0.00     2.56     0.69P    0.00     0.00  
Cheltenham       39   48   -8      -1.26    45.19    -1.02    56.03     3.42   -10.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town     39   43  -18      -1.47    44.16    -4.33    51.18     3.38   -20.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.32R    0.14  
Morecambe        39   42  -18      -0.74    47.57    -1.85    51.15     3.45   -18.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.23R    0.11  
Cambridge_Utd    38   42  -22      -2.29    40.57   -10.91    51.29     3.57   -24.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.62R    0.19  
Port_Vale        39   41  -12      -6.73    23.28    -4.70    48.88     3.24   -14.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.63R    0.45  
Yeovil           39   36  -20      -6.94    22.05    -4.38    44.03     3.38   -22.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.86R   10.87  
Macclesfield     38   34  -24      -2.32    40.96     0.70    41.91     3.47   -28.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.38R   30.91  
Notts_County     39   33  -34     -10.42    12.20   -17.79    40.54     3.38   -37.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.96R   57.33  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 March 2019, Barrow 2 2 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      37   73  +33       7.86    80.43    11.89    88.71     3.95    38.04    70.62    99.42    79.53P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     39   73  +26      13.20    91.56    16.56    83.58     3.53    27.52    11.72    93.46    28.92P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            40   72  +17      10.85    87.61     7.45    81.33     3.11    18.69     1.94    79.94    20.39P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       39   70  +26       8.19    79.85    13.43    81.32     3.55    28.57     3.98    80.48    22.63P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          37   67  +31       2.12    58.72     9.54    82.41     3.97    35.56    11.04    87.34    35.31P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     39   67  +23       6.40    73.89    12.23    77.82     3.52    24.90     0.65    42.77     9.98P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          38   64   +3      12.12    90.32     3.05    74.24     3.70     1.89     0.04     9.53     1.57P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          39   62  +11       3.51    64.44     3.22    72.28     3.52    12.03     0.00     3.93     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   39   61  +18       0.29    51.38     7.18    71.75     3.51    19.75     0.00     3.05     0.74P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      40   60   -1       5.05    70.16    -1.50    68.58     3.18    -0.33     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             40   56   +0       3.27    63.75     2.31    64.16     3.21     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         40   52   -5      -0.98    46.23    -2.63    59.92     3.22    -5.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bromley            39   51   -3      -2.99    38.35    -3.64    59.99     3.48    -3.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Halifax            39   50   +0       1.24    56.18     4.96    58.09     3.29    -1.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Chesterfield       40   49   -1     -10.81    13.42    -8.62    58.68     3.23     1.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          38   47   -3      -6.63    24.30    -5.53    58.04     3.75    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Barnet             37   46  -10      -6.43    24.54   -13.16    58.88     3.99    -9.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       39   44  -11      -6.78    23.41    -8.08    52.57     3.42   -12.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.62R    0.00  
Maidenhead         39   44  -23       1.31    56.28    -6.67    51.95     3.40   -25.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.29R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     39   43  -14      -9.15    16.67   -12.28    51.84     3.46   -15.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.92R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    39   38  -15      -5.14    30.05     2.06    45.53     3.45   -18.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.29R    0.01  
Aldershot          39   35  -30      -9.50    14.66   -17.75    43.33     3.40   -31.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.33R    0.30  
Maidstone_United   39   29  -37      -6.71    21.98   -10.54    35.85     3.22   -41.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   28.66  
Braintree_Town     40   28  -35      -7.10    21.77    -3.48    32.81     2.80   -40.48     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   71.03