Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 22 March 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 March 2019, Everton 2 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        31   76  +52       9.35    90.75    10.69    91.61     3.06    61.97    33.85    99.91   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         30   74  +58       3.52    69.46     3.72    92.94     3.04    72.71    66.15    99.98   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   61  +25       2.23    60.69    -3.41    76.39     3.32    32.25     0.00     0.09    46.02    77.01   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          30   60  +24       5.26    75.03     1.03    75.48     3.71    31.15     0.00     0.02    35.34    66.39   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          30   58  +18       2.15    60.35    -5.06    73.46     3.51    25.14     0.00     0.00    13.33    37.70    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          30   57  +17       3.02    64.61    -2.79    71.54     3.52    22.48     0.00     0.00     5.32    18.90    99.93     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    30   44   +2       5.61    76.45     7.44    54.11     3.60     0.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00  
Watford          30   43   -2       7.03    82.00     8.24    53.80     3.60    -2.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         31   42   -5       3.04    65.26     2.96    49.39     3.24    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        31   41   -3      -0.51    48.11    -0.04    50.02     3.36    -4.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          31   40   +1      -3.21    34.64     1.48    49.15     3.42     0.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      31   38  -13       2.11    61.40     1.26    47.13     3.43   -13.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Newcastle        31   35   -9      -3.00    35.48    -1.35    43.40     3.33   -10.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   33   -5      -4.46    29.02     1.91    42.66     3.48    -7.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.73R    0.00  
Brighton         29   33  -10       0.41    52.93     1.88    42.23     3.58   -15.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.21R    0.00  
Southampton      30   30  -16      -3.84    31.03    -2.73    40.19     3.62   -17.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.38R    0.00  
Burnley          31   30  -24      -3.48    32.96    -8.03    36.77     3.13   -28.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.43R    0.00  
Cardiff          30   28  -30       1.29    58.49    -4.52    33.73     3.09   -40.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.08R    0.00  
Fulham           31   17  -41      -8.20    12.25    -6.41    23.22     3.13   -47.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   13.02  
Huddersfield     31   14  -39      -9.02     8.16    -6.26    18.22     2.64   -48.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   86.98  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Aston_Villa 3 0 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         38   78  +29      15.18    94.67    12.62    91.32     3.71    32.80    65.55    89.58   100.00    91.98P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       38   74  +30      10.69    87.67    13.25    87.67     3.72    34.00    23.05    64.63   100.00    73.68P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    38   73  +24      12.57    91.17    11.53    85.97     3.79    26.92    10.06    36.60    99.99    51.10P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       38   67  +24       0.03    49.81     1.18    81.77     3.70    29.96     1.33     9.17    99.53    38.83P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   37   58   +9      -0.15    49.17    -1.84    73.08     3.94    12.91     0.00     0.02    65.99    16.27P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     38   57  +14      -4.80    30.28    -0.75    70.81     3.76    18.29     0.00     0.00    47.21    11.75P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         38   57   +8       0.42    51.88     1.36    68.51     3.74     8.69     0.00     0.00    20.20     3.89P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   56   +2       0.61    52.85    -4.80    69.86     3.95     4.32     0.00     0.00    30.14     5.86P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    36   55   +7       2.31    60.29     2.18    68.12     4.17     6.17     0.00     0.00    20.28     3.61P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       38   55   -3       2.78    62.01    -3.07    65.16     3.67    -4.28     0.00     0.00     4.37     0.70P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   38   54   +8       2.25    59.92     8.74    65.52     3.72     8.82     0.00     0.00     6.37     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            38   51   -2      -1.36    44.74    -1.66    61.67     3.70    -2.63     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      38   50   +4       2.75    62.38    11.35    60.08     3.72     2.62     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   49  +10      -7.14    22.15     2.00    63.41     4.07    13.06     0.00     0.00     3.17     0.69P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         36   47   -1      -5.33    28.42    -5.36    62.50     4.30     1.70     0.00     0.00     1.98     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke           38   47   -5      -6.61    24.02    -7.45    57.99     3.70    -4.74     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       38   47   -8      -2.13    41.52    -2.81    57.25     3.67    -9.40     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             38   44  -14      -0.19    49.92    -1.13    53.72     3.65   -16.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.00  
Wigan           38   39  -16      -8.69    17.37    -9.42    48.51     3.72   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.44R    0.00  
Millwall        37   37  -14      -8.32    17.61    -5.99    47.11     3.83   -17.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.02R    0.01  
Reading         38   37  -16      -6.08    25.26    -1.97    44.96     3.54   -20.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.21R    0.02  
Rotherham       38   36  -21      -2.77    38.79     0.61    43.22     3.41   -26.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.73R    0.15  
Bolton          38   29  -37      -3.01    36.75    -6.27    35.72     3.29   -43.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.58R   27.81  
Ipswich         38   24  -32     -15.01     3.47   -12.31    32.15     3.51   -36.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.79R   72.01  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Bristol_Rovers 0 0 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                38   80  +41      10.47    86.76    14.69    94.62     3.70    46.40    71.32    91.78   100.00    94.50P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             38   75  +36       3.47    64.23     7.15    90.18     3.68    42.01    16.36    58.61   100.00    75.03P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           37   73  +30       5.06    70.73     3.96    89.42     4.03    36.05    11.56    43.01   100.00    63.78P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           38   71  +25       9.74    84.90    11.43    84.21     3.76    28.38     0.71     6.01    99.99    27.96P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             38   67  +18       6.70    76.38     6.01    80.60     3.78    21.90     0.05     0.59    99.82    23.23P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            37   57  +15       1.56    56.66     8.04    70.73     4.01    16.94     0.00     0.00    68.42    11.01P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             38   56   +1       6.76    76.21     4.43    65.39     3.59    -1.23     0.00     0.00     9.38     1.13P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         38   55   +4      -0.41    48.70    -0.56    66.22     3.81     4.32     0.00     0.00    13.90     2.07P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            38   53   -1       1.79    58.10    -0.37    63.25     3.68    -1.94     0.00     0.00     3.46     0.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       38   52   +8      -3.10    37.20     3.57    63.07     3.74     8.17     0.00     0.00     4.19     0.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        38   50   +4      -4.67    31.30     0.05    59.93     3.71     2.51     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.11P    0.09R    0.00  
Plymouth             38   45  -12      -1.81    42.64    -3.70    54.43     3.73   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.39R    0.30  
Bristol_Rovers       37   44   +0      -5.39    27.92     1.65    55.73     3.94    -0.70     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    5.63R    0.26  
Wycombe              38   44  -11       0.93    54.67     3.31    53.65     3.76   -12.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.00R    0.96  
Accrington_Stanley   36   44  -11       2.55    62.02     0.52    55.52     4.14   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    9.50R    0.48  
Gillingham           38   44  -12      -1.96    42.23    -2.12    54.59     3.79   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.46R    0.66  
Scunthorpe           38   44  -18      -5.14    29.49   -13.07    55.21     3.79   -17.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   10.17R    0.63  
Shrewsbury           38   43   -8      -7.62    20.74    -6.22    53.64     3.70    -8.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.68R    0.66  
Oxford_Utd           38   43  -10      -5.11    29.36    -3.90    53.24     3.73   -11.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.23R    0.94  
Southend             38   42   -8      -7.16    22.03    -3.37    52.59     3.78    -8.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   22.35R    1.68  
Walsall              38   42  -18      -1.63    43.60    -5.04    51.18     3.68   -20.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.57R    4.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        38   39  -21      -1.73    43.20    -5.21    48.25     3.62   -23.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.37R   18.72  
Rochdale             37   38  -31      -1.41    44.69   -12.03    47.34     3.86   -36.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.36R   29.54  
Bradford             38   36  -21      -8.51    17.59    -9.21    45.77     3.69   -22.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.21R   41.15  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 March 2019, Mansfield 1 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     38   76  +30      11.30    88.97    11.43    89.81     3.69    34.29    68.98    99.46   100.00    99.63P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             37   70  +30       3.87    65.63     6.16    86.42     4.01    36.13    28.93    96.67   100.00    97.79P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        38   66  +24       2.03    58.47     6.81    78.93     3.67    26.89     0.69    45.05    99.42    62.56P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          38   66  +22      -0.27    48.53     0.81    79.49     3.77    25.71     1.38    50.80    99.39    67.59P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         37   61  +12       7.54    79.03     8.01    72.29     4.01    10.43     0.02     3.22    70.47    15.63P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     38   58  +16       4.62    69.12    14.25    69.64     3.74    17.04     0.00     0.70    51.28    10.49P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   58  +13      -0.14    49.66     2.00    72.58     4.01    16.24     0.01     3.57    76.56    23.45P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       38   57  +11      -1.10    45.48     2.06    68.40     3.73    11.56     0.00     0.23    35.37     8.33P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         38   57   +8      -0.00    50.11     0.88    69.08     3.79     9.63     0.00     0.29    41.06     9.43P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        38   53   -4       2.82    62.42    -1.11    64.21     3.73    -3.53     0.00     0.01     5.94     1.03P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      38   52   +1      -2.91    38.27    -3.17    63.88     3.72     2.27     0.00     0.00     4.95     1.06P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   37   52  -10       6.60    77.29    -1.70    63.45     3.99   -11.27     0.00     0.00     4.64     0.64P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          37   51   -3      -0.90    46.14    -4.75    64.21     3.96    -1.82     0.00     0.00     6.32     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            38   50   -2       0.44    52.46     2.11    61.27     3.72    -1.52     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.17P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   48   +6      -9.63    15.28    -4.23    61.71     4.08     8.01     0.00     0.00     3.37     0.88P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          38   48   -8       3.00    63.77     1.93    57.19     3.64   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Cheltenham       38   45  -10      -2.21    41.02    -2.00    54.30     3.69   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     38   43  -15      -1.34    44.96    -3.19    52.39     3.65   -17.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.28R    0.14  
Morecambe        38   42  -14      -1.23    45.14    -0.67    52.36     3.69   -14.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.11R    0.11  
Port_Vale        38   41  -10      -6.08    25.27    -3.69    50.40     3.51   -12.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.80R    0.38  
Cambridge_Utd    37   41  -22      -2.04    41.75   -11.29    51.03     3.79   -25.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.69R    0.60  
Yeovil           38   36  -18      -6.49    23.66    -3.81    44.66     3.57   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.75R   11.93  
Macclesfield     37   33  -24      -2.06    41.62     0.51    42.05     3.72   -29.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.41R   37.99  
Notts_County     38   33  -33      -9.48    14.56   -17.36    41.69     3.64   -36.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.82R   48.85  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 March 2019, Barnet 1 0 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      37   73  +33       7.76    80.23    11.77    88.68     3.96    37.99    61.90    99.17    73.16P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   73  +28      13.97    93.55    17.66    85.26     3.77    29.98    19.18    95.78    35.25P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            39   72  +18      11.70    89.68     7.84    82.89     3.42    19.97     4.42    86.08    23.62P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       38   69  +26       8.55    80.95    13.40    81.97     3.85    28.94     4.81    80.11    22.56P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          37   67  +31       1.93    58.11     9.31    82.46     3.97    35.64     8.95    85.11    33.50P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     38   66  +23       6.81    75.49    12.27    78.21     3.80    24.92     0.71    41.49     9.55P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          38   64   +3      12.07    90.16     3.04    74.24     3.67     1.89     0.03     7.54     1.24P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          39   62  +11       3.41    64.22     3.15    72.34     3.52    12.09     0.00     3.05     0.72P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      39   60   +2       4.98    70.21    -0.52    69.84     3.43     2.57     0.00     0.37     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   38   58  +16      -0.40    48.45     6.52    70.50     3.75    18.26     0.00     1.29     0.34P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             39   55   +0       3.66    65.87     2.36    64.45     3.50    -0.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   49   -6      -2.11    41.54    -2.80    58.06     3.47    -6.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Bromley            38   48   -5      -3.65    35.46    -4.19    58.68     3.75    -5.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Halifax            38   47   -2       0.41    52.57     4.11    56.16     3.54    -4.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          38   47   -3      -6.75    23.58    -5.78    58.08     3.76    -2.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Chesterfield       39   46   -4     -10.94    12.94    -9.49    56.95     3.53    -2.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36R    0.00  
Barnet             36   45  -10      -6.42    23.91   -13.63    59.03     4.24    -9.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       38   44   -9      -6.06    25.38    -6.93    54.38     3.71    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.26R    0.00  
Maidenhead         39   44  -23       1.28    56.38    -6.72    51.98     3.39   -25.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.02R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     39   43  -14      -9.16    16.39   -12.28    51.90     3.46   -14.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.48R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    39   38  -15      -4.82    31.62     2.58    45.42     3.45   -18.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.80R    0.03  
Aldershot          38   32  -32     -10.52    11.63   -18.78    41.27     3.65   -34.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.10R    3.55  
Maidstone_United   38   29  -35      -6.29    23.32    -9.92    36.86     3.46   -39.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   28.96  
Braintree_Town     39   28  -33      -6.43    23.84    -2.98    33.83     3.11   -38.94     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   67.47