Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 21 March 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 March 2019, Everton 2 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        31   76  +52       9.29    90.87    10.66    91.62     3.05    62.02    34.06    99.93   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         30   74  +58       3.52    69.53     3.69    92.91     3.06    72.68    65.93    99.94   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   61  +25       1.98    59.38    -3.82    76.46     3.30    32.38     0.00     0.10    47.15    77.77   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          30   60  +24       5.36    75.69     1.27    75.47     3.68    31.08     0.00     0.02    34.38    66.36   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          30   58  +18       2.32    61.25    -4.81    73.42     3.52    25.05     0.00     0.00    13.38    37.31    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          30   57  +17       3.09    65.09    -2.74    71.49     3.52    22.43     0.00     0.00     5.09    18.55    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    30   44   +2       5.70    77.13     7.60    54.09     3.60     0.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00  
Watford          30   43   -2       6.94    81.73     8.10    53.83     3.60    -2.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         31   42   -5       2.96    64.79     2.80    49.40     3.25    -9.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        31   41   -3      -0.60    47.41    -0.20    50.08     3.36    -4.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          31   40   +1      -3.19    34.73     1.47    49.14     3.44     0.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      31   38  -13       2.16    61.52     1.41    47.08     3.45   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        31   35   -9      -2.89    36.02    -1.17    43.36     3.33   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   33   -5      -4.44    28.44     1.95    42.66     3.47    -7.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.72R    0.00  
Brighton         29   33  -10       0.48    53.31     1.92    42.24     3.56   -15.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.26R    0.00  
Southampton      30   30  -16      -3.93    30.69    -2.95    40.21     3.62   -17.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.48R    0.00  
Burnley          31   30  -24      -3.52    32.72    -8.15    36.80     3.15   -28.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.32R    0.00  
Cardiff          30   28  -30       1.37    58.90    -4.44    33.73     3.07   -39.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.06R    0.00  
Fulham           31   17  -41      -8.30    11.91    -6.45    23.26     3.15   -47.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   12.70  
Huddersfield     31   14  -39      -8.95     8.18    -6.15    18.20     2.65   -48.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   87.30  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Aston_Villa 3 0 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         38   78  +29      15.08    94.63    12.43    91.37     3.73    32.88    65.54    89.63   100.00    92.09P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       38   74  +30      10.40    86.65    12.78    87.73     3.73    34.11    23.15    65.14   100.00    74.42P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    38   73  +24      12.69    91.27    11.71    85.92     3.79    26.85     9.89    36.21    99.99    50.81P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       38   67  +24       0.01    49.60     1.24    81.77     3.71    29.97     1.42     8.99    99.51    38.23P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   37   58   +9      -0.26    49.04    -1.96    73.13     3.94    12.95     0.00     0.03    66.54    16.80P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     38   57  +14      -4.45    31.85    -0.25    70.76     3.77    18.21     0.00     0.00    46.41    11.16P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         38   57   +8       0.35    51.50     1.26    68.51     3.76     8.68     0.00     0.00    20.38     3.79P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   56   +2       0.77    53.53    -4.56    69.87     3.95     4.32     0.00     0.00    29.93     6.01P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    36   55   +7       2.59    61.35     2.56    68.07     4.19     6.09     0.00     0.00    20.06     3.69P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       38   55   -3       2.83    62.19    -3.02    65.14     3.71    -4.30     0.00     0.00     4.46     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   38   54   +8       2.03    58.92     8.34    65.58     3.72     8.91     0.00     0.00     6.62     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            38   51   -2      -1.21    45.07    -1.41    61.57     3.69    -2.77     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      38   50   +4       2.91    63.16    11.52    60.00     3.71     2.51     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   49  +10      -7.37    21.61     1.64    63.49     4.06    13.18     0.00     0.00     3.34     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         36   47   -1      -5.45    27.95    -5.55    62.54     4.29     1.74     0.00     0.00     1.98     0.42P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke           38   47   -5      -6.41    24.88    -7.19    57.99     3.69    -4.76     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       38   47   -8      -1.88    42.51    -2.52    57.17     3.68    -9.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
QPR             38   44  -14      -0.27    49.56    -1.35    53.76     3.65   -16.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.00  
Wigan           38   39  -16      -8.75    17.45    -9.45    48.55     3.73   -18.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.46R    0.00  
Millwall        37   37  -14      -8.44    17.47    -6.07    47.11     3.84   -17.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.12R    0.01  
Reading         38   37  -16      -6.07    25.27    -1.88    44.97     3.53   -20.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.83R    0.05  
Rotherham       38   36  -21      -2.74    39.15     0.68    43.22     3.40   -26.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.89R    0.19  
Bolton          38   29  -37      -2.97    36.62    -6.19    35.68     3.27   -43.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.69R   28.43  
Ipswich         38   24  -32     -15.33     3.39   -12.75    32.21     3.51   -36.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.78R   71.32  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Bristol_Rovers 0 0 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                38   80  +41      10.53    87.14    14.77    94.58     3.70    46.35    71.18    91.84   100.00    94.70P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             38   75  +36       3.69    65.03     7.38    90.17     3.66    42.00    16.49    58.18   100.00    74.41P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           37   73  +30       5.00    70.51     3.86    89.39     4.03    36.00    11.60    43.14   100.00    63.79P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           38   71  +25       9.60    84.53    11.21    84.27     3.75    28.47     0.69     6.25    99.99    28.19P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             38   67  +18       6.68    76.08     6.04    80.62     3.77    21.92     0.04     0.60    99.75    23.25P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            37   57  +15       1.48    56.31     7.89    70.75     3.99    16.98     0.00     0.00    68.52    11.24P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             38   56   +1       6.81    76.81     4.43    65.39     3.58    -1.23     0.00     0.00     9.27     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         38   55   +4      -0.45    48.20    -0.59    66.25     3.83     4.33     0.00     0.00    14.08     2.11P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            38   53   -1       1.82    58.30    -0.30    63.28     3.68    -1.94     0.00     0.00     3.36     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       38   52   +8      -2.99    37.64     3.66    63.06     3.74     8.18     0.00     0.00     4.10     0.63P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        38   50   +4      -4.80    30.89    -0.13    59.95     3.73     2.53     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.12P    0.09R    0.00  
Plymouth             38   45  -12      -1.77    43.01    -3.65    54.41     3.71   -14.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.51R    0.31  
Bristol_Rovers       37   44   +0      -5.04    29.45     2.11    55.66     3.93    -0.82     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    5.86R    0.26  
Wycombe              38   44  -11       1.00    55.38     3.48    53.58     3.77   -13.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   17.39R    1.01  
Accrington_Stanley   36   44  -11       2.48    61.75     0.38    55.54     4.12   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    9.43R    0.50  
Gillingham           38   44  -12      -1.98    42.54    -2.18    54.57     3.79   -12.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   11.34R    0.68  
Scunthorpe           38   44  -18      -5.06    29.88   -12.92    55.22     3.80   -17.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   10.13R    0.60  
Shrewsbury           38   43   -8      -7.72    20.30    -6.38    53.65     3.71    -8.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.84R    0.64  
Oxford_Utd           38   43  -10      -5.35    28.78    -4.19    53.28     3.70   -11.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.67R    1.00  
Southend             38   42   -8      -7.23    22.01    -3.42    52.58     3.78    -8.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.39R    1.79  
Walsall              38   42  -18      -1.72    43.41    -5.13    51.19     3.68   -20.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   41.00R    4.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        38   39  -21      -1.64    43.38    -5.20    48.26     3.61   -23.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.44R   18.60  
Rochdale             37   38  -31      -1.30    44.98   -11.88    47.34     3.85   -36.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.58R   29.25  
Bradford             38   36  -21      -8.53    17.63    -9.24    45.78     3.68   -22.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.35R   41.33  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 March 2019, Mansfield 1 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     38   76  +30      11.22    88.70    11.30    89.81     3.72    34.31    68.83    99.56   100.00    99.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             37   70  +30       3.87    65.70     6.11    86.43     3.98    36.15    29.10    96.87   100.00    97.83P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        38   66  +24       2.06    58.73     6.92    78.95     3.67    26.89     0.71    44.77    99.43    62.57P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          38   66  +22      -0.19    48.95     0.92    79.46     3.78    25.65     1.34    50.69    99.35    67.37P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         37   61  +12       7.38    78.44     7.80    72.26     4.01    10.39     0.02     3.25    69.65    15.43P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     38   58  +16       4.59    68.96    14.24    69.69     3.73    17.11     0.00     0.75    51.72    10.52P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   58  +13      -0.19    49.28     2.03    72.59     4.02    16.25     0.00     3.64    76.72    23.53P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       38   57  +11      -1.24    44.73     1.86    68.45     3.70    11.62     0.00     0.23    35.97     8.56P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         38   57   +8       0.08    50.38     0.93    69.02     3.80     9.56     0.00     0.23    40.66     9.28P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        38   53   -4       2.95    62.89    -0.97    64.20     3.73    -3.52     0.00     0.01     5.90     1.00P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      38   52   +1      -2.93    38.09    -3.23    63.88     3.72     2.26     0.00     0.00     4.78     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   37   52  -10       6.56    77.00    -1.70    63.48     4.02   -11.23     0.00     0.00     4.88     0.74P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          37   51   -3      -0.83    46.85    -4.69    64.20     3.99    -1.81     0.00     0.00     6.48     1.36P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            38   50   -2       0.51    52.64     2.19    61.24     3.71    -1.55     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   48   +6      -9.53    15.32    -4.04    61.66     4.05     7.94     0.00     0.00     3.28     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          38   48   -8       2.77    62.91     1.57    57.27     3.65   -10.41     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Cheltenham       38   45  -10      -2.15    41.39    -1.95    54.29     3.69   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     38   43  -15      -1.39    44.60    -3.28    52.40     3.65   -17.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.29R    0.14  
Morecambe        38   42  -14      -1.11    45.98    -0.58    52.33     3.69   -14.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.20R    0.13  
Port_Vale        38   41  -10      -6.10    25.23    -3.73    50.40     3.54   -12.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.80R    0.43  
Cambridge_Utd    37   41  -22      -2.11    41.43   -11.29    51.06     3.80   -25.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.66R    0.58  
Yeovil           38   36  -18      -6.61    23.27    -3.94    44.68     3.57   -21.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.36R   11.69  
Macclesfield     37   33  -24      -1.76    43.16     0.96    42.02     3.73   -29.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.92R   38.41  
Notts_County     38   33  -33      -9.55    14.24   -17.42    41.70     3.64   -36.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.63R   48.61  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 March 2019, Barnet 1 0 Harrogate_Town; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      37   73  +33       8.20    81.54    12.37    88.58     3.96    37.82    60.89    99.03    72.63P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   73  +28      13.97    93.42    17.62    85.27     3.79    30.00    19.75    95.85    36.20P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            39   72  +18      11.50    89.48     7.62    82.92     3.42    20.01     4.65    86.09    24.00P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       38   69  +26       8.72    81.46    13.64    81.97     3.83    28.93     4.85    80.03    22.21P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          37   67  +31       2.20    59.19     9.73    82.41     3.98    35.55     8.94    84.64    32.66P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     38   66  +23       6.70    74.97    12.09    78.24     3.83    24.97     0.88    41.53     9.86P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          38   64   +3      11.84    89.83     2.74    74.28     3.71     1.99     0.03     7.86     1.31P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          39   62  +11       3.40    64.26     3.12    72.33     3.52    12.09     0.00     3.21     0.70P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      39   60   +2       5.18    70.78    -0.26    69.82     3.44     2.53     0.00     0.40     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   38   58  +16      -0.28    48.86     6.71    70.49     3.76    18.26     0.00     1.36     0.35P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             39   55   +0       3.70    65.66     2.37    64.44     3.50    -0.14     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   49   -6      -2.06    42.20    -2.75    58.01     3.46    -6.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Bromley            38   48   -5      -3.69    35.09    -4.30    58.72     3.76    -5.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11R    0.00  
Halifax            38   47   -2       0.14    51.18     3.78    56.20     3.54    -4.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          38   47   -3      -6.92    23.23    -6.01    58.09     3.74    -2.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Chesterfield       39   46   -4     -10.95    12.65    -9.48    56.99     3.51    -1.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33R    0.00  
Barnet             36   45  -10      -6.30    24.70   -13.47    59.01     4.23    -9.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       38   44   -9      -6.19    25.05    -7.15    54.38     3.71    -9.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.32R    0.00  
Maidenhead         39   44  -23       1.12    55.72    -6.94    52.03     3.40   -25.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.95R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     39   43  -14      -9.00    16.66   -12.10    51.88     3.46   -15.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.52R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    39   38  -15      -5.05    30.22     2.22    45.45     3.41   -18.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.84R    0.02  
Aldershot          38   32  -32     -10.56    11.38   -18.84    41.24     3.66   -34.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.10R    3.73  
Maidstone_United   38   29  -35      -6.30    23.14    -9.92    36.89     3.45   -39.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   28.52  
Braintree_Town     39   28  -33      -6.27    24.51    -2.78    33.82     3.10   -38.97     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   67.73