Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 18 March 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 March 2019, Everton 2 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        31   76  +52       9.45    91.09    10.90    91.62     3.05    62.01    34.48    99.95   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         30   74  +58       3.48    69.11     3.70    92.89     3.05    72.69    65.52    99.98   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   61  +25       2.19    60.50    -3.52    76.40     3.30    32.27     0.00     0.06    46.20    76.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          30   60  +24       5.15    74.63     0.93    75.49     3.69    31.16     0.00     0.01    35.16    66.61   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          30   58  +18       2.20    60.54    -5.02    73.43     3.52    25.09     0.00     0.00    13.48    37.66    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          30   57  +17       3.08    65.08    -2.75    71.52     3.54    22.46     0.00     0.00     5.17    18.75    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    30   44   +2       5.65    76.48     7.51    54.13     3.60     0.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00  
Watford          30   43   -2       6.99    81.91     8.19    53.79     3.60    -2.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         31   42   -5       2.81    64.54     2.54    49.45     3.26    -8.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        31   41   -3      -0.52    47.77    -0.11    50.07     3.35    -4.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          31   40   +1      -3.24    34.30     1.44    49.12     3.45     0.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      31   38  -13       2.29    62.07     1.62    47.07     3.45   -13.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Newcastle        31   35   -9      -2.93    36.02    -1.23    43.35     3.34   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   33   -5      -4.48    28.70     1.85    42.70     3.46    -7.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.69R    0.00  
Brighton         29   33  -10       0.38    52.94     1.82    42.26     3.57   -15.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.14R    0.00  
Southampton      30   30  -16      -3.86    31.18    -2.74    40.19     3.64   -17.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.40R    0.00  
Burnley          31   30  -24      -3.53    32.94    -8.12    36.79     3.12   -28.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.09R    0.00  
Cardiff          30   28  -30       1.49    59.40    -4.22    33.70     3.07   -40.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.51R    0.00  
Fulham           31   17  -41      -8.26    11.98    -6.52    23.28     3.15   -47.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   12.78  
Huddersfield     31   14  -39      -9.01     8.09    -6.27    18.22     2.65   -48.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   87.22  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Aston_Villa 3 0 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         38   78  +29      15.40    95.01    12.90    91.33     3.72    32.77    65.36    89.17   100.00    91.58P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       38   74  +30      10.45    86.87    12.89    87.71     3.72    34.10    23.31    64.62   100.00    73.98P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    38   73  +24      12.59    91.00    11.61    85.98     3.78    26.92    10.01    36.76    99.99    51.20P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       38   67  +24      -0.09    49.17     1.01    81.81     3.71    30.03     1.31     9.42    99.55    38.53P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   37   58   +9      -0.33    48.34    -2.11    73.18     3.91    13.03     0.00     0.02    67.11    16.92P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     38   57  +14      -4.69    30.98    -0.58    70.82     3.77    18.30     0.00     0.01    47.18    11.32P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         38   57   +8       0.35    51.66     1.31    68.49     3.74     8.65     0.00     0.00    19.86     3.79P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   56   +2       0.60    52.76    -4.77    69.88     3.96     4.33     0.00     0.00    29.86     6.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    36   55   +7       2.54    61.18     2.51    68.07     4.18     6.07     0.00     0.00    19.73     3.66P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       38   55   -3       2.71    61.91    -3.21    65.19     3.70    -4.26     0.00     0.00     4.39     0.71P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   38   54   +8       2.31    60.12     8.79    65.52     3.72     8.80     0.00     0.00     6.34     1.03P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            38   51   -2      -1.33    44.68    -1.64    61.62     3.69    -2.68     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      38   50   +4       2.95    63.20    11.65    60.01     3.70     2.53     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   49  +10      -7.18    22.05     1.96    63.42     4.05    13.09     0.00     0.00     3.12     0.61P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         36   47   -1      -5.30    28.43    -5.33    62.50     4.31     1.70     0.00     0.00     2.07     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke           38   47   -5      -6.32    25.21    -7.10    57.94     3.70    -4.81     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       38   47   -8      -1.81    42.80    -2.40    57.17     3.70    -9.51     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
QPR             38   44  -14      -0.29    49.37    -1.32    53.77     3.63   -16.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.00  
Wigan           38   39  -16      -8.75    17.23    -9.48    48.53     3.70   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.24R    0.00  
Millwall        37   37  -14      -8.47    17.25    -6.18    47.10     3.84   -17.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.20R    0.00  
Reading         38   37  -16      -6.24    24.68    -2.22    44.95     3.51   -20.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.13R    0.02  
Rotherham       38   36  -21      -2.96    37.91     0.32    43.24     3.40   -26.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.72R    0.13  
Bolton          38   29  -37      -2.98    36.76    -6.24    35.69     3.29   -43.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.65R   28.03  
Ipswich         38   24  -32     -15.06     3.42   -12.36    32.15     3.48   -36.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.84R   71.82  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Bristol_Rovers 0 0 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                38   80  +41      10.51    87.19    14.74    94.62     3.72    46.37    71.33    91.73   100.00    94.57P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             38   75  +36       3.74    65.21     7.49    90.19     3.68    42.05    16.36    58.68   100.00    75.23P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           37   73  +30       5.09    70.93     4.02    89.37     4.01    35.98    11.50    42.81   100.00    63.73P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           38   71  +25       9.67    84.69    11.31    84.24     3.78    28.42     0.75     6.17    99.99    27.89P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             38   67  +18       6.75    76.31     6.07    80.57     3.77    21.88     0.06     0.61    99.79    23.21P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            37   57  +15       1.41    56.30     7.75    70.77     3.99    16.99     0.00     0.00    68.34    11.02P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             38   56   +1       6.90    77.07     4.60    65.39     3.58    -1.23     0.00     0.00     9.43     1.07P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         38   55   +4      -0.61    47.55    -0.90    66.26     3.82     4.37     0.00     0.00    14.10     2.02P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            38   53   -1       1.91    58.47    -0.18    63.25     3.67    -1.96     0.00     0.00     3.48     0.46P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       38   52   +8      -2.94    37.99     3.76    63.06     3.72     8.17     0.00     0.00     3.96     0.63P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion        38   50   +4      -4.83    31.04    -0.19    59.97     3.74     2.55     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.14P    0.09R    0.00  
Plymouth             38   45  -12      -1.59    43.95    -3.36    54.36     3.70   -14.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   11.70R    0.31  
Bristol_Rovers       37   44   +0      -5.32    28.11     1.77    55.73     3.93    -0.72     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    5.69R    0.28  
Wycombe              38   44  -11       0.81    54.34     3.15    53.66     3.76   -12.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.90R    0.91  
Accrington_Stanley   36   44  -11       2.28    60.60     0.10    55.58     4.11   -14.12     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    9.23R    0.47  
Gillingham           38   44  -12      -2.08    41.59    -2.36    54.58     3.78   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   11.23R    0.69  
Scunthorpe           38   44  -18      -5.06    29.85   -12.92    55.22     3.78   -17.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    10.00R    0.57  
Shrewsbury           38   43   -8      -7.51    20.73    -6.06    53.64     3.72    -8.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.88R    0.66  
Oxford_Utd           38   43  -10      -5.14    29.34    -3.90    53.24     3.74   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.37R    0.95  
Southend             38   42   -8      -7.25    22.08    -3.51    52.56     3.77    -8.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.49R    1.66  
Walsall              38   42  -18      -1.62    43.65    -4.96    51.17     3.69   -20.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.39R    4.26  
AFC_Wimbledon        38   39  -21      -1.65    43.46    -5.18    48.23     3.61   -23.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.74R   18.75  
Rochdale             37   38  -31      -1.41    44.59   -12.04    47.36     3.86   -36.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.04R   29.04  
Bradford             38   36  -21      -8.50    17.63    -9.21    45.74     3.69   -22.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.24R   41.44  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 18 March 2019, Mansfield 1 1 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     38   76  +30      11.19    88.59    11.25    89.83     3.71    34.34    68.49    99.44   100.00    99.64P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             37   70  +30       3.70    65.29     5.83    86.48     4.02    36.23    29.41    96.71   100.00    97.79P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        38   66  +24       2.00    58.32     6.81    78.93     3.68    26.89     0.69    44.52    99.42    62.25P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          38   66  +22      -0.46    47.70     0.57    79.52     3.76    25.76     1.38    50.98    99.38    67.61P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         37   61  +12       7.22    77.99     7.61    72.31     4.00    10.46     0.02     3.37    70.24    15.96P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     38   58  +16       4.63    69.49    14.24    69.66     3.77    17.08     0.00     0.78    51.63    10.44P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   58  +13      -0.23    49.05     1.98    72.61     4.01    16.29     0.01     3.68    76.99    23.53P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       38   57  +11      -1.22    44.82     1.91    68.38     3.75    11.53     0.00     0.24    35.23     8.46P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         38   57   +8       0.10    50.45     1.04    69.07     3.81     9.59     0.00     0.27    41.01     9.23P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        38   53   -4       2.94    63.17    -0.96    64.24     3.72    -3.50     0.00     0.00     5.83     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      38   52   +1      -2.93    38.05    -3.23    63.89     3.69     2.27     0.00     0.00     4.70     1.03P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   37   52  -10       6.56    77.12    -1.75    63.47     4.02   -11.25     0.00     0.01     4.64     0.67P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          37   51   -3      -0.93    46.36    -4.86    64.23     3.96    -1.79     0.00     0.00     6.39     1.31P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            38   50   -2       0.41    52.18     2.04    61.25     3.74    -1.54     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.21P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   48   +6      -9.53    15.53    -4.04    61.68     4.04     7.97     0.00     0.00     3.38     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          38   48   -8       3.07    64.06     2.02    57.20     3.63   -10.52     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Cheltenham       38   45  -10      -2.17    41.48    -1.98    54.30     3.71   -12.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     38   43  -15      -1.18    45.52    -2.92    52.33     3.64   -17.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.28R    0.15  
Morecambe        38   42  -14      -0.98    46.42    -0.38    52.33     3.67   -14.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.07R    0.14  
Port_Vale        38   41  -10      -5.91    25.91    -3.47    50.35     3.52   -12.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.90R    0.40  
Cambridge_Utd    37   41  -22      -2.08    41.38   -11.29    51.04     3.78   -25.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.59R    0.54  
Yeovil           38   36  -18      -6.51    23.74    -3.83    44.66     3.56   -21.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.74R   11.94  
Macclesfield     37   33  -24      -1.82    42.95     0.83    42.04     3.71   -29.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.71R   38.12  
Notts_County     38   33  -33      -9.54    13.95   -17.41    41.71     3.64   -36.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.54R   48.71  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Aldershot 0 1 Salford_City; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      37   73  +33       8.03    81.23    12.13    88.65     3.95    37.93    60.94    98.90    72.30P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   73  +28      13.95    93.29    17.69    85.25     3.78    29.96    18.95    94.80    35.26P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            39   72  +18      11.81    89.97     8.01    82.81     3.41    19.88     4.08    82.74    22.77P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       38   69  +26       8.67    81.53    13.58    81.98     3.82    28.98     4.70    76.98    21.57P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          37   67  +31       2.05    58.56     9.52    82.52     3.97    35.68     9.05    82.97    32.68P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +24       7.67    78.42    12.50    79.67     4.09    26.06     2.25    52.99    13.38P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          38   64   +3      12.08    90.19     3.14    74.23     3.69     1.87     0.03     6.57     1.12P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          39   62  +11       3.34    64.04     3.07    72.29     3.52    12.04     0.00     2.58     0.62P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      39   60   +2       4.86    69.66    -0.73    69.89     3.45     2.61     0.00     0.36     0.07P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   38   58  +16      -0.66    47.34     6.21    70.58     3.77    18.39     0.00     1.10     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             39   55   +0       3.54    65.12     2.19    64.47     3.49    -0.09     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   49   -6      -1.99    42.09    -2.60    58.04     3.48    -6.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Bromley            38   48   -5      -3.67    35.06    -4.24    58.68     3.76    -5.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Halifax            38   47   -2       0.27    51.76     3.97    56.20     3.53    -4.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          38   47   -3      -6.83    23.26    -5.90    58.05     3.74    -2.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Chesterfield       39   46   -4     -10.96    12.88    -9.49    57.00     3.51    -1.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       38   44   -9      -6.14    25.40    -7.04    54.35     3.73    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.38R    0.00  
Maidenhead         39   44  -23       1.29    56.39    -6.68    52.00     3.38   -25.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.78R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     39   43  -14      -9.15    16.54   -12.29    51.86     3.46   -15.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.49R    0.00  
Barnet             35   42  -11      -7.57    20.08   -13.91    57.33     4.48   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.45R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    39   38  -15      -5.03    30.50     2.24    45.48     3.44   -18.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.90R    0.03  
Aldershot          38   32  -32     -10.48    11.68   -18.73    41.22     3.64   -34.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.04R    3.57  
Maidstone_United   38   29  -35      -6.20    23.78    -9.74    36.80     3.47   -39.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   29.54  
Braintree_Town     39   28  -33      -6.37    24.06    -2.89    33.85     3.10   -38.94     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   66.87