Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 16 March 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Bournemouth 2 2 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         30   74  +58       3.58    69.81     3.99    92.89     3.04    72.70    67.98    99.98   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        30   73  +51       8.58    89.04    11.15    91.20     3.23    63.25    32.02    99.82    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   61  +25       2.08    60.10    -3.64    76.43     3.32    32.32     0.00     0.15    42.49    72.51   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          30   60  +24       5.40    76.29     1.30    75.51     3.70    31.16     0.00     0.02    32.64    61.51    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          30   58  +18       2.20    60.88    -5.00    73.43     3.53    25.11     0.00     0.01    12.10    33.32    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   57  +19       3.98    69.81    -1.60    73.36     3.77    25.21     0.00     0.02    12.78    32.66    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    30   44   +2       5.65    76.73     7.49    54.11     3.60     0.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00  
Watford          30   43   -2       6.96    81.80     8.10    53.74     3.60    -2.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         31   42   -5       2.78    63.87     2.53    49.44     3.25    -8.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        31   41   -3      -0.70    46.85    -0.33    50.06     3.35    -4.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Bournemouth      31   38  -13       2.14    61.42     1.30    47.13     3.44   -13.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          30   37   -1      -4.35    29.02     0.34    47.10     3.68    -2.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Newcastle        31   35   -9      -2.88    36.15    -1.18    43.38     3.31   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   33   -5      -4.52    28.50     1.89    42.72     3.49    -7.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.70R    0.00  
Brighton         29   33  -10       0.42    53.01     1.88    42.22     3.56   -15.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.21R    0.00  
Southampton      30   30  -16      -4.03    30.19    -3.08    40.21     3.63   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.29R    0.00  
Burnley          31   30  -24      -3.46    33.01    -8.01    36.76     3.13   -28.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.12R    0.00  
Cardiff          30   28  -30       1.58    59.91    -4.07    33.66     3.04   -40.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.59R    0.00  
Fulham           30   17  -40      -7.53    14.23    -6.75    23.54     3.26   -48.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   11.91  
Huddersfield     31   14  -39      -9.02     8.08    -6.30    18.19     2.64   -48.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   88.09  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Aston_Villa 3 0 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         38   78  +29      15.10    94.77    12.42    91.33     3.73    32.82    65.29    89.32   100.00    91.81P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       38   74  +30      10.42    86.75    12.89    87.70     3.74    34.08    23.31    64.58   100.00    73.77P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    38   73  +24      12.57    91.11    11.55    85.98     3.79    26.92    10.12    36.94    99.98    51.45P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       38   67  +24      -0.03    49.32     1.07    81.78     3.68    30.01     1.28     9.13    99.58    39.00P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   37   58   +9      -0.37    48.41    -2.15    73.17     3.93    13.02     0.00     0.02    66.96    16.84P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     38   57  +14      -4.55    31.37    -0.31    70.74     3.79    18.18     0.00     0.01    46.40    10.93P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         38   57   +8       0.44    51.92     1.42    68.46     3.75     8.61     0.00     0.00    20.13     3.72P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   56   +2       0.89    53.90    -4.42    69.82     3.95     4.25     0.00     0.00    29.62     5.98P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    36   55   +7       2.53    61.15     2.46    68.11     4.18     6.12     0.00     0.00    20.29     3.56P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       38   55   -3       2.88    62.57    -2.89    65.14     3.69    -4.30     0.00     0.00     4.44     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   38   54   +8       2.29    59.89     8.76    65.49     3.74     8.80     0.00     0.00     6.60     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            38   51   -2      -1.30    44.83    -1.57    61.64     3.71    -2.67     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.08P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      38   50   +4       2.75    62.41    11.34    60.05     3.72     2.58     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       37   49  +10      -7.04    22.34     2.16    63.41     4.04    13.08     0.00     0.00     3.13     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         36   47   -1      -5.51    27.49    -5.61    62.56     4.30     1.77     0.00     0.00     2.04     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke           38   47   -5      -6.35    24.71    -7.17    57.98     3.70    -4.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       38   47   -8      -2.05    42.22    -2.73    57.23     3.71    -9.45     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             38   44  -14      -0.45    48.89    -1.56    53.78     3.63   -16.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23R    0.00  
Wigan           38   39  -16      -8.73    17.63    -9.42    48.52     3.70   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.56R    0.00  
Millwall        37   37  -14      -8.45    17.00    -6.10    47.09     3.85   -17.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.23R    0.01  
Reading         38   37  -16      -6.17    24.89    -2.08    44.98     3.52   -20.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.80R    0.03  
Rotherham       38   36  -21      -2.76    39.08     0.63    43.22     3.40   -27.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.78R    0.17  
Bolton          38   29  -37      -2.95    36.97    -6.18    35.73     3.30   -43.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.62R   27.98  
Ipswich         38   24  -32     -15.15     3.42   -12.52    32.17     3.50   -36.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.78R   71.82  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Bristol_Rovers 0 0 Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                38   80  +41      10.49    86.86    14.72    94.63     3.73    46.41    71.27    91.77   100.00    94.63P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             38   75  +36       3.45    63.90     7.12    90.19     3.67    42.04    16.12    58.10   100.00    75.15P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           37   73  +30       4.87    69.88     3.68    89.46     4.02    36.12    11.85    43.50   100.00    63.94P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           38   71  +25       9.68    84.59    11.35    84.23     3.77    28.40     0.70     6.07    99.99    27.67P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             38   67  +18       6.63    75.98     6.00    80.59     3.77    21.90     0.06     0.56    99.80    22.70P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            37   57  +15       1.43    55.95     7.80    70.77     3.99    17.00     0.00     0.00    68.56    11.37P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             38   56   +1       6.87    76.74     4.53    65.37     3.59    -1.25     0.00     0.00     9.41     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         38   55   +4      -0.53    47.94    -0.75    66.21     3.80     4.32     0.00     0.00    13.93     2.08P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            38   53   -1       1.66    57.50    -0.54    63.32     3.67    -1.90     0.00     0.00     3.48     0.51P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       38   52   +8      -2.69    39.06     4.09    63.00     3.74     8.08     0.00     0.00     3.93     0.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        38   50   +4      -4.63    31.50     0.06    59.91     3.73     2.48     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.11P    0.09R    0.00  
Plymouth             38   45  -12      -1.65    43.71    -3.46    54.40     3.70   -14.33     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.57R    0.35  
Bristol_Rovers       37   44   +0      -5.33    27.98     1.79    55.73     3.94    -0.72     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P    5.59R    0.24  
Wycombe              38   44  -11       0.94    54.99     3.35    53.64     3.75   -13.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.92R    0.94  
Accrington_Stanley   36   44  -11       2.51    61.82     0.44    55.53     4.13   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    9.49R    0.46  
Gillingham           38   44  -12      -1.89    42.55    -2.06    54.57     3.78   -12.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.39R    0.66  
Scunthorpe           38   44  -18      -5.11    29.64   -13.02    55.22     3.78   -17.66     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    10.05R    0.59  
Shrewsbury           38   43   -8      -7.51    21.09    -6.10    53.65     3.71    -8.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.78R    0.66  
Oxford_Utd           38   43  -10      -5.32    28.91    -4.14    53.26     3.71   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.88R    0.96  
Southend             38   42   -8      -7.23    22.03    -3.48    52.59     3.79    -8.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.45R    1.62  
Walsall              38   42  -18      -1.71    43.12    -5.09    51.19     3.68   -20.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.31R    3.93  
AFC_Wimbledon        38   39  -21      -1.68    43.21    -5.30    48.26     3.62   -23.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.50R   18.23  
Rochdale             37   38  -31      -1.43    44.51   -12.04    47.34     3.86   -36.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.64R   29.48  
Bradford             38   36  -21      -8.38    17.98    -8.96    45.72     3.71   -22.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.33R   41.88  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Crewe 6 1 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     37   75  +30      11.64    89.98    11.35    89.93     3.94    33.95    68.58    99.09   100.00    99.37P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             37   70  +30       3.90    66.08     6.22    86.42     3.97    36.11    28.27    96.29   100.00    97.53P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          38   66  +22      -0.54    47.18     0.38    79.54     3.74    25.78     1.38    48.42    99.41    66.37P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        37   65  +24       2.53    60.95     7.03    79.53     3.93    27.20     1.75    48.80    99.42    64.93P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         37   61  +12       7.38    78.47     7.81    72.27     4.02    10.42     0.02     2.89    69.70    15.33P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     38   58  +16       4.52    68.64    14.11    69.72     3.76    17.15     0.00     0.78    52.05    10.43P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           37   58  +13      -0.07    49.67     2.17    72.53     4.02    16.19     0.01     3.27    75.98    23.04P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       38   57  +11      -1.34    44.46     1.74    68.47     3.75    11.65     0.00     0.20    36.27     8.70P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         38   57   +8       0.04    50.23     0.94    69.07     3.80     9.63     0.00     0.22    40.71     9.14P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        38   53   -4       2.93    62.88    -0.97    64.21     3.74    -3.54     0.00     0.00     5.91     1.01P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      38   52   +1      -2.83    38.49    -3.01    63.84     3.73     2.19     0.00     0.00     4.68     1.03P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   37   52  -10       6.60    77.03    -1.71    63.46     4.02   -11.27     0.00     0.00     4.80     0.69P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          37   51   -3      -0.99    46.05    -4.86    64.21     3.99    -1.81     0.00     0.01     6.45     1.30P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            38   50   -2       0.53    52.73     2.21    61.22     3.73    -1.59     0.00     0.00     1.13     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   48   +6      -9.52    15.35    -4.04    61.71     4.08     8.03     0.00     0.00     3.41     0.93P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          38   48   -8       2.93    63.69     1.79    57.21     3.63   -10.49     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Cheltenham       38   45  -10      -2.19    41.15    -2.02    54.34     3.73   -12.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     38   43  -15      -1.37    44.73    -3.28    52.40     3.67   -17.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.27R    0.13  
Morecambe        38   42  -14      -1.16    45.69    -0.62    52.31     3.66   -14.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.11R    0.13  
Port_Vale        38   41  -10      -6.06    25.59    -3.62    50.41     3.52   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.70R    0.35  
Cambridge_Utd    37   41  -22      -2.03    41.60   -11.19    51.02     3.78   -25.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.61R    0.62  
Yeovil           38   36  -18      -6.52    23.29    -3.80    44.64     3.57   -21.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.91R   12.19  
Macclesfield     37   33  -24      -1.89    42.24     0.75    42.02     3.73   -29.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.96R   38.53  
Notts_County     38   33  -33      -9.52    14.32   -17.40    41.73     3.65   -36.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.31R   48.05  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 March 2019, Aldershot 0 1 Salford_City; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      37   73  +33       7.97    80.90    12.02    88.66     3.98    37.93    60.91    98.88    72.31P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     38   73  +28      13.95    93.17    17.62    85.29     3.79    30.01    19.36    94.62    35.59P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            39   72  +18      11.67    89.74     7.86    82.89     3.42    19.96     4.34    83.37    23.50P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       38   69  +26       8.53    80.83    13.37    81.98     3.81    28.98     4.54    76.95    21.26P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          37   67  +31       2.18    58.88     9.75    82.44     3.99    35.59     8.70    82.39    31.78P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     37   66  +24       7.43    77.76    12.16    79.64     4.05    26.02     2.13    53.06    13.47P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          38   64   +3      12.02    90.15     2.96    74.26     3.68     1.93     0.03     6.75     1.14P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          39   62  +11       3.19    63.51     2.86    72.33     3.52    12.08     0.00     2.57     0.60P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      39   60   +2       5.01    70.53    -0.47    69.83     3.43     2.54     0.00     0.30     0.06P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   38   58  +16      -0.31    48.58     6.63    70.50     3.77    18.29     0.00     1.10     0.29P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             39   55   +0       3.68    65.71     2.35    64.46     3.51    -0.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Hartlepool         39   49   -6      -1.98    42.20    -2.56    58.04     3.49    -6.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Bromley            38   48   -5      -3.57    35.65    -4.09    58.71     3.74    -5.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Halifax            38   47   -2       0.46    52.73     4.18    56.14     3.54    -4.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.44R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          38   47   -3      -6.77    23.50    -5.76    58.07     3.76    -2.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17R    0.00  
Chesterfield       39   46   -4     -11.17    12.38    -9.81    56.99     3.54    -1.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       38   44   -9      -6.10    25.27    -6.97    54.36     3.70    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.17R    0.00  
Maidenhead         39   44  -23       1.31    56.35    -6.64    52.01     3.40   -25.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.13R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     39   43  -14      -8.98    17.12   -11.99    51.85     3.46   -15.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.54R    0.00  
Barnet             35   42  -11      -7.59    19.81   -13.95    57.36     4.47   -10.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.32R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    39   38  -15      -5.22    29.80     2.00    45.50     3.45   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.76R    0.02  
Aldershot          38   32  -32     -10.34    11.99   -18.48    41.22     3.64   -34.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.10R    3.60  
Maidstone_United   38   29  -35      -6.42    22.90   -10.16    36.86     3.46   -39.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.90R   29.00  
Braintree_Town     39   28  -33      -6.37    23.92    -2.90    33.85     3.13   -38.94     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   67.37