Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 15 March 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 March 2019, Arsenal 2 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         30   74  +58       3.54    69.60     3.93    92.91     3.05    72.69    68.60    99.97   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        30   73  +51       8.56    88.92    11.21    91.18     3.22    63.21    31.40    99.86    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   61  +25       2.19    60.67    -3.50    76.41     3.32    32.24     0.00     0.11    42.63    72.41   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          30   60  +24       5.27    75.31     1.19    75.52     3.70    31.20     0.00     0.04    32.90    61.71   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          30   58  +18       2.29    61.01    -4.77    73.39     3.49    25.00     0.00     0.01    11.85    33.15    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   57  +19       3.95    69.58    -1.56    73.35     3.76    25.16     0.00     0.02    12.64    32.72    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    30   44   +2       5.70    76.78     7.61    54.09     3.60     0.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00  
Watford          30   43   -2       7.04    82.00     8.34    53.77     3.60    -2.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         30   39   -6       2.04    60.81     2.61    48.59     3.48    -8.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        30   38   -4      -1.95    40.56    -0.71    48.40     3.64    -5.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          30   37   -1      -4.22    29.57     0.65    47.02     3.69    -2.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth      30   37  -13       2.61    64.08     1.33    47.68     3.70   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        30   34   -9      -2.59    36.97    -1.33    43.55     3.59   -11.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   33   -5      -4.52    28.39     1.77    42.71     3.48    -7.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.90R    0.00  
Brighton         29   33  -10       0.36    52.84     1.82    42.23     3.54   -15.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.55R    0.00  
Southampton      30   30  -16      -3.80    31.04    -2.68    40.18     3.65   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.20R    0.00  
Burnley          30   30  -23      -2.58    37.10    -7.91    38.20     3.43   -27.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.22R    0.00  
Cardiff          30   28  -30       1.40    59.13    -4.40    33.67     3.05   -40.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.78R    0.00  
Fulham           30   17  -40      -7.63    13.61    -6.88    23.55     3.25   -48.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R   16.20  
Huddersfield     30   14  -38      -8.22     9.58    -6.72    18.85     2.85   -48.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   83.80  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 13 March 2019, Birmingham 0 2 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         37   75  +28      14.23    93.75    12.74    90.16     4.00    32.48    56.28    84.87   100.00    88.30P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    37   73  +25      13.35    92.50    11.65    87.69     4.07    28.41    26.55    62.82   100.00    71.47P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       37   71  +29       9.32    84.56    12.63    85.78     3.98    32.64    16.13    45.85    99.97    59.66P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   64  +23      -1.24    44.61     0.70    80.12     3.99    28.92     1.03     6.21    98.46    34.77P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   36   58  +12      -0.17    49.18    -0.68    74.63     4.17    16.12     0.01     0.25    78.84    20.88P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   56   +2       0.54    52.65    -4.89    69.85     3.95     4.27     0.00     0.00    31.69     6.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    36   55   +7       2.34    60.27     2.22    68.22     4.20     6.31     0.00     0.00    21.55     3.86P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     37   54  +11      -5.10    29.20    -1.62    68.97     4.03    14.91     0.00     0.01    29.94     7.10P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   54   +7      -0.53    47.81     1.42    67.30     4.03     8.29     0.00     0.00    15.04     2.93P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   53   +8       2.63    61.53     8.78    66.03     3.97     8.99     0.00     0.00     9.29     1.45P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   52   -5       2.28    60.28    -3.46    63.61     3.96    -6.16     0.00     0.00     2.62     0.41P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      37   50   +5       3.63    66.20    11.71    61.06     3.95     3.01     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull            37   50   -2      -0.68    47.30    -1.19    62.56     3.96    -1.82     0.00     0.00     1.45     0.27P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       36   49  +11      -6.26    25.01     2.22    64.92     4.31    14.27     0.00     0.00     8.11     1.77P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         36   47   -1      -5.23    28.60    -5.19    62.39     4.30     1.57     0.00     0.00     2.12     0.43P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   47   -6      -1.55    44.03    -2.24    58.44     3.96    -7.59     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           37   46   -5      -5.84    26.83    -6.82    58.88     3.94    -4.02     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   43  -14      -0.06    50.44    -1.68    53.63     3.86   -16.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42R    0.00  
Millwall        37   37  -14      -8.38    17.60    -6.06    47.19     3.85   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.63R    0.02  
Reading         37   36  -16      -5.95    25.56    -2.05    44.74     3.72   -21.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.58R    0.14  
Wigan           37   36  -19      -8.79    16.58   -10.41    47.17     3.91   -20.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.82R    0.05  
Rotherham       37   36  -20      -2.07    41.75     0.51    44.21     3.67   -26.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.19R    0.19  
Bolton          37   29  -34      -2.85    37.15    -5.69    36.67     3.52   -40.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.74R   24.31  
Ipswich         37   23  -32     -14.91     3.37   -12.62    32.33     3.76   -36.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.61R   75.28  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 15 March 2019, Doncaster 0 0 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                37   79  +41      11.26    88.88    15.37    95.84     3.94    47.68    79.29    94.94   100.00    96.66P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             38   75  +36       3.68    64.79     7.44    90.19     3.68    42.04    12.69    61.29   100.00    76.86P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   70  +29       3.96    66.40     3.80    88.69     4.20    36.45     7.55    38.09   100.00    60.83P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           37   68  +23       8.94    83.06    10.71    82.97     4.02    26.96     0.33     4.36    99.86    25.71P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             37   66  +18       6.95    77.21     5.90    81.12     4.04    22.11     0.14     1.31    99.58    24.08P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            37   57  +15       1.14    55.01     7.43    70.82     3.99    17.09     0.00     0.00    62.48    10.24P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         37   55   +5       0.63    52.99    -0.12    68.07     4.06     6.04     0.00     0.00    24.71     3.77P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            37   53   +2       1.68    57.70     0.59    64.76     3.92     1.28     0.00     0.00     7.04     1.00P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             37   53   +0       5.66    73.32     4.10    63.30     3.82    -2.88     0.00     0.00     3.81     0.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       37   49   +6      -3.66    34.63     3.05    61.50     4.00     6.29     0.00     0.00     1.96     0.30P    0.09R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        37   47   +1      -4.86    30.65    -0.93    58.10     3.96    -0.78     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P    1.03R    0.00  
Plymouth             37   45  -10      -1.30    44.98    -2.95    55.52     3.96   -12.70     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    7.30R    0.14  
Wycombe              37   44  -10       1.82    58.77     3.61    54.77     4.02   -12.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   11.70R    0.46  
Accrington_Stanley   36   44  -11       2.47    61.51     0.34    55.60     4.13   -14.12     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    8.79R    0.38  
Scunthorpe           37   44  -16      -4.61    31.36   -12.38    56.28     4.03   -16.16     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    6.67R    0.30  
Bristol_Rovers       36   43   +0      -5.08    28.93     1.67    55.97     4.17    -0.93     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    5.67R    0.24  
Gillingham           37   43  -12      -1.89    42.20    -2.75    54.13     3.93   -13.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.53R    0.82  
Southend             37   42   -7      -6.04    25.89    -2.70    54.48     4.05    -6.88     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   11.65R    0.73  
Walsall              37   42  -17      -0.89    46.88    -5.07    51.76     3.85   -21.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.53R    2.77  
Shrewsbury           37   40   -9      -8.62    17.02    -6.28    52.27     3.97    -9.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.43R    1.82  
Oxford_Utd           37   40  -11      -6.35    24.49    -4.23    51.85     3.96   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.68R    3.19  
Rochdale             37   38  -31      -1.42    44.69   -12.07    47.34     3.87   -36.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.92R   26.23  
Bradford             37   36  -20      -7.59    20.11    -8.75    46.94     3.94   -22.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.25R   26.58  
AFC_Wimbledon        37   36  -22      -3.11    36.60    -5.81    46.10     3.81   -25.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.76R   36.34  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 15 March 2019, Newport_County 1 0 Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     37   75  +30      11.70    90.05    11.45    89.84     3.93    33.87    66.83    98.80   100.00    99.18P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             37   70  +30       3.64    64.73     5.72    86.45     4.02    36.23    28.85    95.44   100.00    96.98P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        37   65  +24       2.65    61.34     7.20    79.61     3.92    27.29     1.70    44.67    99.33    62.55P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          37   65  +22       0.07    50.05     0.74    80.52     3.99    26.72     2.61    55.24    99.41    70.79P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         37   61  +12       7.36    78.38     7.76    72.19     3.99    10.28     0.01     2.39    67.73    14.85P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     37   57  +16       5.18    71.23    14.59    70.22     4.02    17.36     0.00     0.97    54.83    11.30P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   57  +14      -1.09    45.28     3.11    69.77     4.01    14.56     0.00     0.75    49.24    12.87P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         37   56   +8       0.29    51.33     0.73    69.24     4.06     9.28     0.00     0.34    41.30     9.42P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           36   55  +10      -0.47    47.98     0.93    70.88     4.27    13.14     0.00     1.37    58.16    16.13P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        37   52   -4       3.15    64.01    -1.23    63.98     3.94    -4.47     0.00     0.00     5.72     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   37   52  -10       6.53    76.87    -1.75    63.44     4.00   -11.29     0.00     0.01     4.21     0.59P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   51   +1      -2.64    39.17    -3.27    64.30     4.00     2.35     0.00     0.01     6.66     1.46P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   50   -3      -0.46    48.21    -4.69    65.07     4.23    -1.10     0.00     0.01     9.77     2.03P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           37   48   +6      -9.58    15.16    -4.08    61.71     4.05     8.03     0.00     0.00     3.15     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            37   47   -7       0.93    54.72     0.01    59.45     3.94    -6.79     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -8       3.06    64.35     1.63    57.55     3.89   -10.56     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.02R    0.00  
Cheltenham       38   45  -10      -2.19    41.06    -1.94    54.37     3.70   -12.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   43  -10      -1.79    42.42    -1.22    53.80     3.92   -12.19     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    0.87R    0.05  
Morecambe        37   41  -14      -0.85    47.00    -0.54    52.48     3.95   -15.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.92R    0.22  
Cambridge_Utd    37   41  -22      -2.02    41.74   -11.13    51.05     3.79   -25.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.67R    0.45  
Port_Vale        37   40  -10      -5.94    25.67    -3.89    50.43     3.78   -12.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.82R    0.48  
Yeovil           37   36  -16      -5.71    26.52    -2.70    46.58     3.85   -18.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.52R    5.26  
Notts_County     37   32  -33      -9.20    14.73   -17.28    42.36     3.93   -36.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.12R   32.28  
Macclesfield     36   30  -26      -2.94    37.55    -0.13    39.84     3.96   -31.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.85R   61.26  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 March 2019, AFC_Fylde 4 2 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      37   73  +33       8.17    81.55    12.32    88.60     3.95    37.86    64.02    99.07    75.05P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     37   70  +27      13.05    92.08    17.70    84.47     3.99    30.24    17.22    92.81    33.62P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            38   69  +17      10.84    88.45     7.88    81.89     3.64    19.84     3.51    78.19    21.19P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          37   67  +31       2.19    59.19     9.72    82.43     3.96    35.56     9.59    84.22    33.36P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       37   66  +25       7.51    78.29    13.23    80.61     4.09    28.33     3.44    68.43    18.82P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          37   64   +4      13.03    92.10     3.42    75.88     3.96     3.30     0.24    18.14     3.11P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     36   63  +23       6.64    75.51    12.43    78.65     4.33    26.04     1.97    49.08    12.57P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          38   62  +13       4.14    67.43     4.25    73.82     3.77    14.26     0.01     8.84     2.01P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      38   57   +0       4.01    67.05    -1.66    68.10     3.69     0.45     0.00     0.25     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   55  +15      -1.54    43.39     6.22    69.10     4.00    17.61     0.00     0.98     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             38   52   -1       2.25    60.20     1.69    62.55     3.74    -1.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   48   -5      -3.59    35.47    -4.13    58.68     3.74    -5.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Hartlepool         38   48   -6      -1.79    42.74    -2.81    58.15     3.72    -7.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19R    0.00  
Halifax            37   47   -1       1.12    56.03     4.26    57.40     3.78    -3.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          38   47   -3      -6.65    23.73    -5.56    58.05     3.75    -2.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   44   -8      -5.30    28.05    -6.88    55.46     3.93    -9.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.12R    0.00  
Maidenhead         38   44  -22       2.05    59.86    -6.58    52.75     3.62   -25.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.74R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   43   -5     -12.27     9.96   -10.02    55.57     3.80    -2.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.19R    0.00  
Barnet             34   41  -11      -7.33    20.30   -14.03    58.01     4.74   -10.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.72R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   40  -15     -10.31    13.16   -12.61    50.44     3.70   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.84R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    38   38  -14      -4.04    34.19     2.62    46.63     3.70   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.05R    0.05  
Aldershot          37   32  -31      -9.63    13.28   -18.43    42.35     3.87   -33.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.80R    3.45  
Maidstone_United   37   29  -34      -5.72    25.44    -9.99    37.61     3.67   -39.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.66R   28.63  
Braintree_Town     38   28  -32      -5.66    26.56    -3.04    34.44     3.31   -39.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   67.87