Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 14 March 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 March 2019, Arsenal 2 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         30   74  +58       3.44    69.11     3.73    92.94     3.01    72.77    68.86    99.96   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        30   73  +51       8.47    88.89    11.05    91.20     3.22    63.22    31.14    99.82    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   61  +25       2.15    60.39    -3.51    76.40     3.29    32.22     0.00     0.14    41.93    71.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          30   60  +24       5.22    75.33     1.10    75.57     3.69    31.26     0.00     0.05    33.18    62.33    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          30   58  +18       2.23    61.06    -4.95    73.43     3.51    25.09     0.00     0.00    12.25    33.01    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   57  +19       3.90    69.39    -1.70    73.33     3.77    25.15     0.00     0.04    12.64    32.71    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    30   44   +2       5.82    77.37     7.78    54.08     3.61     0.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00  
Watford          30   43   -2       7.09    82.26     8.44    53.75     3.61    -2.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         30   39   -6       2.18    61.78     2.80    48.54     3.48    -8.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        30   38   -4      -1.84    41.30    -0.53    48.37     3.61    -5.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          30   37   -1      -4.39    28.77     0.38    47.06     3.70    -2.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth      30   37  -13       2.70    64.59     1.56    47.62     3.74   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Newcastle        30   34   -9      -2.64    36.55    -1.41    43.58     3.58   -11.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   33   -5      -4.43    29.08     1.98    42.67     3.45    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.96R    0.00  
Brighton         29   33  -10       0.37    52.69     1.80    42.24     3.56   -15.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.70R    0.00  
Southampton      30   30  -16      -3.85    30.69    -2.72    40.20     3.63   -17.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.30R    0.00  
Burnley          30   30  -23      -2.50    37.79    -7.77    38.16     3.43   -27.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.40R    0.00  
Cardiff          30   28  -30       1.37    58.91    -4.39    33.68     3.07   -40.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.31R    0.01  
Fulham           30   17  -40      -7.66    13.81    -6.91    23.56     3.25   -48.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.92R   16.08  
Huddersfield     30   14  -38      -8.23     9.57    -6.72    18.88     2.86   -48.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   83.91  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 13 March 2019, Birmingham 0 2 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         37   75  +28      14.09    93.65    12.46    90.20     3.98    32.58    56.82    85.43   100.00    88.80P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    37   73  +25      13.65    93.39    12.07    87.66     4.02    28.37    25.70    62.35    99.99    71.22P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       37   71  +29       9.01    83.48    12.17    85.85     3.99    32.73    16.54    46.09    99.98    59.97P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       37   64  +23      -0.92    45.76     1.29    80.00     3.99    28.75     0.92     5.88    98.36    34.37P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   36   58  +12      -0.17    49.23    -0.67    74.58     4.18    16.08     0.02     0.25    78.27    20.92P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           37   56   +2       0.71    53.27    -4.66    69.84     3.95     4.25     0.00     0.00    31.38     6.34P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    36   55   +7       2.55    61.00     2.56    68.20     4.19     6.26     0.00     0.00    21.52     3.76P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     37   54  +11      -5.11    29.07    -1.67    68.98     4.05    14.93     0.00     0.00    30.33     7.18P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         37   54   +7      -0.57    47.72     1.41    67.30     4.01     8.29     0.00     0.00    15.11     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   37   53   +8       2.53    61.41     8.55    66.01     3.99     8.99     0.00     0.00     9.37     1.54P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       37   52   -5       2.03    59.09    -3.79    63.71     3.99    -6.02     0.00     0.00     2.89     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      37   50   +5       3.61    66.11    11.64    61.10     3.94     3.08     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.10P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            37   50   -2      -0.72    47.29    -1.22    62.52     3.98    -1.87     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.23P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       36   49  +11      -6.17    25.19     2.41    64.94     4.30    14.30     0.00     0.00     8.15     1.73P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         36   47   -1      -5.43    27.81    -5.53    62.47     4.30     1.66     0.00     0.00     2.17     0.47P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       37   47   -6      -1.36    44.74    -1.96    58.39     3.94    -7.69     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           37   46   -5      -6.16    25.55    -7.24    58.92     3.94    -3.98     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             37   43  -14      -0.11    50.25    -1.75    53.62     3.89   -16.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40R    0.00  
Millwall        37   37  -14      -8.65    16.64    -6.43    47.23     3.87   -17.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.31R    0.02  
Reading         37   36  -16      -5.90    25.66    -2.08    44.73     3.74   -21.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.17R    0.11  
Wigan           37   36  -19      -8.77    16.77   -10.38    47.16     3.93   -20.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.86R    0.08  
Rotherham       37   36  -20      -1.92    42.53     0.77    44.15     3.67   -26.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.99R    0.21  
Bolton          37   29  -34      -2.67    38.02    -5.49    36.66     3.53   -40.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.67R   24.61  
Ipswich         37   23  -32     -14.78     3.55   -12.45    32.33     3.79   -36.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.60R   74.96  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 March 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 1 0 Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                37   79  +41      11.11    88.78    15.16    95.88     3.94    47.77    76.02    94.42   100.00    96.35P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             37   74  +36       4.06    66.63     7.36    90.88     3.96    42.54    16.66    65.44   100.00    79.09P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           36   70  +29       3.92    65.84     3.80    88.69     4.25    36.45     6.95    35.33    99.99    59.81P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           37   68  +23       9.06    83.33    10.91    82.94     4.00    26.90     0.29     3.71    99.83    25.07P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             37   66  +18       7.04    77.79     5.98    81.12     4.04    22.13     0.07     1.09    99.54    23.86P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            36   56  +15       1.65    56.97     7.63    70.82     4.25    16.52     0.00     0.01    61.88    10.17P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         37   55   +5       0.65    52.77    -0.07    68.09     4.07     6.05     0.00     0.00    25.19     3.84P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            37   53   +2       1.93    58.61     0.95    64.73     3.92     1.22     0.00     0.00     7.05     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             37   53   +0       5.76    73.76     4.26    63.27     3.81    -2.95     0.00     0.00     3.89     0.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       37   49   +6      -3.58    35.27     3.19    61.50     4.02     6.26     0.00     0.00     2.06     0.34P    0.08R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        37   47   +1      -4.91    29.99    -0.99    58.05     3.93    -0.84     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    1.03R    0.00  
Plymouth             37   45  -10      -1.23    45.14    -2.78    55.53     3.94   -12.70     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    7.12R    0.13  
Wycombe              37   44  -10       1.71    58.34     3.41    54.81     4.01   -12.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    11.52R    0.47  
Accrington_Stanley   36   44  -11       2.16    60.29    -0.08    55.65     4.13   -14.01     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    8.55R    0.36  
Scunthorpe           37   44  -16      -4.71    30.72   -12.47    56.28     4.02   -16.17     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    6.62R    0.29  
Bristol_Rovers       36   43   +0      -4.91    29.79     1.92    55.93     4.18    -0.94     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    5.80R    0.28  
Gillingham           37   43  -12      -1.97    41.98    -2.84    54.08     3.94   -14.02     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.83R    0.96  
Southend             37   42   -7      -6.03    26.06    -2.63    54.45     4.03    -6.92     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   11.88R    0.68  
Walsall              37   42  -17      -0.92    46.81    -5.10    51.77     3.86   -20.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.52R    2.84  
Shrewsbury           37   40   -9      -8.59    17.35    -6.31    52.28     3.98    -9.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.58R    1.78  
Oxford_Utd           37   40  -11      -6.52    24.10    -4.41    51.87     3.96   -11.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.76R    3.13  
Rochdale             37   38  -31      -1.58    43.91   -12.33    47.37     3.85   -35.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.90R   26.03  
Bradford             37   36  -20      -7.48    20.64    -8.57    46.92     3.97   -22.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.18R   27.02  
AFC_Wimbledon        37   36  -22      -3.28    36.16    -6.00    46.14     3.83   -25.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.63R   36.03  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 March 2019, Cambridge_Utd 0 0 Crewe; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     37   75  +30      11.54    89.67    11.19    89.91     3.96    33.95    67.25    98.72   100.00    99.16P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             37   70  +30       3.69    65.38     5.85    86.47     3.98    36.23    28.42    95.50   100.00    96.98P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        37   65  +24       2.52    60.52     7.01    79.61     3.92    27.31     1.62    44.75    99.41    62.61P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          37   65  +22       0.12    50.23     0.87    80.50     4.00    26.68     2.69    55.12    99.46    70.40P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         37   61  +12       7.53    79.05     8.02    72.19     4.01    10.27     0.01     2.46    68.03    14.95P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     37   57  +16       5.22    71.87    14.63    70.24     4.02    17.38     0.00     1.00    55.57    11.42P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       37   57  +14      -1.12    45.00     3.10    69.74     3.97    14.52     0.00     0.73    49.34    12.86P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         37   56   +8       0.36    51.70     0.83    69.21     4.06     9.25     0.00     0.35    41.20     9.44P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           36   55  +10      -0.59    47.45     0.80    70.89     4.25    13.16     0.01     1.33    58.61    16.34P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        37   52   -4       2.88    62.52    -1.62    64.04     3.90    -4.37     0.00     0.01     5.59     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      37   51   +1      -2.63    39.20    -3.28    64.29     3.96     2.33     0.00     0.01     6.57     1.48P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          36   50   -3      -0.43    48.51    -4.60    65.07     4.22    -1.13     0.00     0.02     9.72     2.03P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   36   49  -11       5.49    73.71    -1.80    61.97     4.28   -12.10     0.00     0.00     2.64     0.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           37   48   +6      -9.60    15.68    -4.16    61.73     4.08     8.02     0.00     0.00     3.35     0.93P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            37   47   -7       1.01    55.34     0.17    59.38     3.95    -6.87     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          37   47   -8       3.28    65.20     1.98    57.54     3.89   -10.58     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Cheltenham       37   45   -9      -1.36    44.79    -1.74    55.64     3.99   -11.65     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.09R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     37   43  -10      -1.97    42.11    -1.48    53.86     3.91   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.79R    0.04  
Morecambe        37   41  -14      -0.76    47.48    -0.38    52.46     3.96   -15.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.86R    0.21  
Cambridge_Utd    37   41  -22      -2.04    41.71   -11.17    51.02     3.80   -25.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.01R    0.49  
Port_Vale        37   40  -10      -5.78    26.28    -3.71    50.41     3.77   -12.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.77R    0.48  
Yeovil           37   36  -16      -5.82    25.78    -2.82    46.59     3.83   -18.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.90R    5.01  
Notts_County     37   32  -33      -9.20    14.68   -17.35    42.34     3.89   -36.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.66R   32.44  
Macclesfield     36   30  -26      -3.05    37.03    -0.35    39.85     3.95   -31.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.89R   61.33  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 March 2019, AFC_Fylde 4 2 Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      37   73  +33       8.07    81.45    12.16    88.63     3.96    37.90    64.63    99.02    75.39P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     37   70  +27      13.12    92.25    17.84    84.43     3.98    30.21    16.82    92.91    33.62P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            38   69  +17      10.84    88.08     7.89    81.91     3.64    19.87     3.56    78.61    21.61P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          37   67  +31       2.20    58.93     9.69    82.39     3.97    35.51     9.36    83.79    32.93P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       37   66  +25       7.72    78.75    13.52    80.62     4.11    28.37     3.51    68.80    18.74P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          37   64   +4      13.12    92.10     3.58    75.84     3.96     3.25     0.20    18.09     3.00P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     36   63  +23       6.65    75.78    12.46    78.61     4.31    25.98     1.91    48.67    12.29P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          38   62  +13       4.03    66.68     4.07    73.84     3.77    14.30     0.01     8.99     2.14P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      38   57   +0       4.24    67.90    -1.35    68.09     3.68     0.42     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   37   55  +15      -1.25    44.67     6.58    69.05     4.00    17.52     0.00     0.90     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             38   52   -1       2.31    60.48     1.78    62.53     3.73    -1.52     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bromley            38   48   -5      -3.94    34.17    -4.61    58.75     3.76    -5.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15R    0.00  
Hartlepool         38   48   -6      -1.85    42.74    -2.84    58.18     3.71    -7.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16R    0.00  
Halifax            37   47   -1       1.04    55.38     4.14    57.40     3.78    -3.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          38   47   -3      -6.78    23.69    -5.76    58.10     3.76    -2.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       37   44   -8      -5.15    28.54    -6.66    55.44     3.95    -9.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.11R    0.00  
Maidenhead         38   44  -22       1.89    59.06    -6.91    52.85     3.65   -25.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.23R    0.00  
Chesterfield       38   43   -5     -12.19     9.67    -9.89    55.58     3.79    -2.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.23R    0.00  
Barnet             34   41  -11      -7.08    21.27   -13.69    57.91     4.71   -10.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.80R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     38   40  -15     -10.19    13.45   -12.37    50.38     3.72   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.71R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    38   38  -14      -4.18    33.72     2.45    46.66     3.73   -17.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.62R    0.04  
Aldershot          37   32  -31      -9.69    13.44   -18.42    42.31     3.89   -33.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.70R    3.58  
Maidstone_United   37   29  -34      -5.68    25.53    -9.92    37.61     3.65   -39.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.65R   29.14  
Braintree_Town     38   28  -32      -6.05    25.18    -3.72    34.49     3.31   -39.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   67.24