Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 11 March 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 March 2019, Arsenal 2 0 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         30   74  +58       3.45    68.98     3.73    92.94     3.04    72.78    68.66    99.96   100.00   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        30   73  +51       8.65    89.57    11.40    91.19     3.21    63.18    31.34    99.85    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        30   61  +25       2.06    59.79    -3.68    76.42     3.29    32.26     0.00     0.14    42.26    72.50   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          30   60  +24       5.29    75.46     1.20    75.54     3.72    31.23     0.00     0.02    33.09    61.81   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          30   58  +18       2.29    61.02    -4.83    73.41     3.53    25.00     0.00     0.01    12.02    33.06    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          29   57  +19       3.88    69.41    -1.65    73.33     3.78    25.16     0.00     0.02    12.65    32.64    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    30   44   +2       5.67    76.59     7.56    54.12     3.59     0.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00  
Watford          30   43   -2       7.00    82.00     8.25    53.76     3.62    -2.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         30   39   -6       2.02    60.65     2.55    48.58     3.50    -8.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        30   38   -4      -1.78    41.38    -0.51    48.37     3.65    -5.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          30   37   -1      -4.32    28.98     0.44    47.07     3.68    -2.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth      30   37  -13       2.61    63.88     1.43    47.66     3.74   -13.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Newcastle        30   34   -9      -2.56    37.24    -1.34    43.57     3.59   -11.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   33   -5      -4.44    28.77     1.91    42.67     3.45    -7.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.78R    0.00  
Brighton         29   33  -10       0.51    53.67     2.03    42.21     3.57   -15.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.61R    0.00  
Southampton      30   30  -16      -3.97    30.70    -2.93    40.21     3.61   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.17R    0.00  
Burnley          30   30  -23      -2.63    36.87    -7.92    38.19     3.44   -27.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.03R    0.00  
Cardiff          30   28  -30       1.45    59.65    -4.26    33.64     3.05   -40.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.98R    0.00  
Fulham           30   17  -40      -7.52    14.46    -6.60    23.53     3.25   -48.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.94R   16.13  
Huddersfield     30   14  -38      -8.25     9.72    -6.77    18.87     2.87   -48.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   83.87  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 March 2019, Birmingham 0 1 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         36   72  +27      13.11    92.47    12.50    89.03     4.23    32.30    58.48    85.52   100.00    88.74P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    36   70  +22      13.17    92.79    10.78    86.07     4.30    25.46    23.63    59.30    99.94    68.30P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       36   68  +27       8.56    82.66    11.91    84.39     4.23    31.03    16.36    45.90    99.82    59.35P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       36   61  +20      -1.12    44.84     0.41    78.55     4.28    25.99     1.13     6.81    94.39    33.39P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   35   58  +13       1.02    54.99     0.09    76.42     4.39    17.71     0.40     2.35    85.27    25.55P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           36   55   +2       1.01    54.49    -4.78    70.50     4.21     4.69     0.00     0.04    34.67     7.33P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    35   54   +7       3.10    63.83     2.81    69.28     4.41     7.32     0.00     0.05    26.85     5.09P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   36   53  +10       3.37    64.76     9.74    67.56     4.24    11.28     0.00     0.01    16.13     2.71P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     36   51   +9      -5.95    25.84    -2.41    67.22     4.28    12.74     0.00     0.00    15.41     3.74P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         36   51   +6      -2.08    41.28     0.61    65.17     4.20     6.59     0.00     0.00     5.92     1.17P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      36   50   +7       4.45    69.71    12.85    62.95     4.21     5.80     0.00     0.00     2.37     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            36   50   -1      -0.12    49.92    -1.63    63.38     4.18    -1.76     0.00     0.00     2.38     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       35   49  +13      -5.69    26.39     2.96    66.10     4.52    15.96     0.00     0.02    11.63     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       36   49   -7       1.45    57.08    -4.27    62.18     4.22    -7.88     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         35   47   +2      -5.40    27.57    -4.49    63.68     4.49     4.35     0.00     0.00     3.87     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke           36   45   -5      -5.76    26.66    -7.18    59.02     4.18    -4.32     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       36   44   -9      -1.60    43.52    -2.79    56.70     4.20   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.03R    0.00  
QPR             36   43  -13       0.96    54.94    -1.25    55.62     4.13   -14.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Reading         36   36  -13      -5.96    25.10    -1.22    46.18     4.01   -18.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.26R    0.06  
Wigan           36   36  -16      -8.93    15.89    -9.66    48.63     4.20   -17.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.00R    0.03  
Millwall        36   34  -16      -9.45    13.91    -7.15    45.09     4.08   -19.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.77R    0.23  
Rotherham       36   33  -21      -3.52    35.14    -0.12    42.01     3.89   -28.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.64R    1.61  
Bolton          36   29  -32      -2.36    39.64    -5.01    37.87     3.79   -38.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.77R   16.88  
Ipswich         36   22  -32     -14.64     3.57   -12.72    31.95     3.95   -37.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.39R   81.18  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 March 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 2 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                36   76  +40       9.94    86.17    14.73    94.85     4.20    47.71    65.05    91.28   100.00    94.30P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             36   73  +36       4.45    68.97     7.23    91.48     4.20    42.90    24.68    69.30   100.00    81.13P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           35   69  +29       4.25    67.64     3.59    88.79     4.48    36.10    10.00    36.43    99.98    60.02P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           36   65  +22       7.99    80.79    10.72    81.60     4.28    26.28     0.23     2.21    99.09    23.79P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             36   63  +17       6.02    74.62     5.91    79.76     4.28    21.49     0.05     0.77    97.92    23.64P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            35   55  +15       2.00    58.73     7.65    71.22     4.44    16.55     0.00     0.01    55.19     9.47P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         36   55   +6       1.70    57.48     0.43    69.81     4.33     7.54     0.00     0.00    34.53     5.59P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            36   52   +2       2.26    60.34     0.98    65.07     4.16     1.19     0.00     0.00     7.43     1.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry             36   50   -1       4.50    69.62     3.75    61.46     4.04    -4.19     0.00     0.00     1.38     0.16P    0.10R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       36   49   +7      -2.82    37.99     3.35    63.05     4.25     7.54     0.00     0.00     3.79     0.62P    0.04R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        36   47   +2      -4.30    32.43    -1.07    59.23     4.18    -0.09     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.08P    0.75R    0.00  
Wycombe              36   44   -8       2.41    61.33     4.25    56.50     4.27    -9.80     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    6.17R    0.16  
Gillingham           36   43  -11      -0.73    47.32    -1.92    55.55     4.21   -12.92     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    9.39R    0.41  
Southend             36   42   -4      -5.72    26.72    -1.36    55.89     4.30    -3.83     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    7.21R    0.27  
Plymouth             36   42  -11      -2.48    39.68    -3.23    53.90     4.19   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   17.05R    0.65  
Walsall              36   42  -16      -0.12    50.27    -5.07    52.86     4.12   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.51R    1.37  
Accrington_Stanley   35   41  -13       1.57    57.92    -0.54    53.50     4.34   -16.76     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.12R    1.55  
Scunthorpe           36   41  -19      -5.09    29.04   -13.58    54.50     4.25   -19.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    15.96R    1.06  
Bristol_Rovers       35   40   -1      -6.15    24.43     1.57    54.13     4.41    -2.22     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   14.63R    1.05  
Shrewsbury           36   40   -8      -7.72    19.33    -6.01    53.68     4.23    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.30R    0.74  
Oxford_Utd           36   39  -11      -6.13    25.33    -4.30    52.33     4.25   -11.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.55R    2.58  
Rochdale             36   37  -31      -1.12    45.83   -11.92    47.72     4.13   -36.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.39R   19.61  
Bradford             36   36  -19      -6.83    22.50    -8.59    47.97     4.21   -21.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.02R   16.65  
AFC_Wimbledon        36   33  -23      -4.71    29.45    -6.56    44.14     4.06   -26.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.79R   53.90  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 March 2019, Cambridge_Utd 1 1 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     36   72  +28      10.62    88.22    10.24    88.46     4.20    32.20    53.67    94.95   100.00    96.49P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             37   70  +30       3.89    65.78     6.17    86.32     4.00    35.98    32.71    92.56    99.99    94.98P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          36   65  +24       0.98    53.80     2.11    82.62     4.23    29.73     9.84    67.07    99.79    78.68P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        36   64  +24       3.01    62.89     7.13    80.27     4.21    27.75     3.73    40.53    99.20    59.22P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         36   58   +9       7.22    78.14     6.88    70.59     4.24     7.35     0.02     0.90    49.56     9.37P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       36   57  +17      -0.63    47.09     4.73    71.70     4.24    18.39     0.02     1.75    65.71    18.41P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         36   56  +10       1.16    55.17     1.97    71.62     4.29    12.87     0.02     1.16    62.28    15.25P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           36   55  +10      -0.47    47.99     0.97    70.96     4.27    13.26     0.00     0.84    56.65    14.73P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     36   54  +13       4.29    68.31    12.70    67.95     4.24    13.42     0.00     0.19    30.97     5.57P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          35   50   -1       0.28    51.43    -3.65    66.56     4.47     1.09     0.00     0.05    17.47     3.71P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        36   49   -6       2.12    59.78    -2.27    62.25     4.20    -6.60     0.00     0.00     2.68     0.42P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   35   49  -10       6.29    76.68    -1.56    62.95     4.51   -11.72     0.00     0.00     4.63     0.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           36   48   +8      -9.16    16.18    -3.53    62.82     4.32     9.62     0.00     0.00     5.93     1.56P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      36   48   +0      -3.62    35.36    -3.24    63.03     4.23     1.88     0.00     0.00     4.08     0.82P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          36   47   -5       3.36    65.42     2.91    58.77     4.12    -7.73     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe            36   46   -7       1.26    56.16     0.12    59.71     4.23    -6.92     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Cheltenham       37   45   -9      -1.36    44.73    -1.72    55.69     3.99   -11.58     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.05R    0.01  
Crawley_Town     36   42  -10      -1.62    43.50    -1.30    53.95     4.14   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.45R    0.02  
Cambridge_Utd    36   40  -22      -1.91    42.09   -11.44    51.57     4.08   -25.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.31R    0.24  
Morecambe        36   38  -16      -1.82    42.46    -1.77    50.15     4.13   -18.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.61R    0.67  
Port_Vale        36   37  -13      -6.27    23.67    -5.10    48.85     4.01   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.66R    0.96  
Yeovil           36   36  -13      -5.62    26.42    -1.55    47.87     4.09   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.98R    1.80  
Macclesfield     36   30  -26      -2.81    38.02    -0.03    39.86     3.94   -31.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.84R   45.03  
Notts_County     36   29  -35     -10.38    11.18   -18.76    39.82     4.07   -39.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.11R   51.27  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 March 2019, Barrow 2 1 Aldershot; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      36   70  +32       6.90    77.97    11.88    87.49     4.20    37.58    57.11    97.79    69.58P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            37   69  +19      11.65    90.51     9.16    83.80     3.86    22.57    13.25    89.37    32.51P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     36   67  +26      11.60    89.84    17.00    82.98     4.21    29.52    13.74    85.41    29.14P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       37   66  +25       7.57    78.51    13.30    80.54     4.12    28.23     4.58    68.20    18.99P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          36   64  +29       1.53    56.23     9.20    81.20     4.20    34.16     8.28    75.66    29.38P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     36   63  +23       6.60    75.50    12.25    78.68     4.28    26.11     2.73    50.23    13.33P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          37   62  +14       5.01    70.92     4.47    75.16     4.02    15.27     0.14    17.52     4.19P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          36   61   +2      12.28    91.12     2.71    74.67     4.20     1.92     0.16    13.66     2.41P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      37   57   +3       4.77    70.00     0.45    70.46     3.91     4.88     0.00     1.57     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   36   52  +12      -1.76    42.61     5.20    67.80     4.24    15.09     0.00     0.59     0.13P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             37   49   -3       1.05    55.26     0.29    60.29     3.94    -4.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Hartlepool         37   48   -4      -1.25    45.02    -2.20    59.10     3.94    -5.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          37   47   +0      -6.39    24.78    -4.27    60.11     4.01     1.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07R    0.00  
Bromley            37   47   -5      -3.27    36.61    -4.31    59.11     4.00    -5.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Halifax            36   46   -1       1.33    56.65     4.00    57.38     3.99    -3.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35R    0.00  
Maidenhead         37   44  -19       2.15    60.11    -5.58    53.88     3.84   -22.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.41R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       36   43   -8      -4.90    29.14    -6.79    55.65     4.17    -9.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.17R    0.00  
Chesterfield       37   42   -5     -11.69    10.41    -9.84    55.81     4.04    -2.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.81R    0.00  
Barnet             33   40  -11      -6.76    21.88   -13.83    58.70     4.99    -9.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.29R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     37   39  -15      -9.78    14.18   -12.43    50.85     3.97   -15.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.88R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    37   35  -17      -4.45    32.25     1.69    44.38     3.94   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.16R    0.22  
Aldershot          36   32  -30      -8.92    14.95   -18.41    43.35     4.08   -33.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.53R    1.01  
Maidstone_United   36   29  -32      -5.16    27.45    -9.23    38.49     3.87   -38.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.10R   12.16  
Braintree_Town     37   25  -35      -6.52    22.70    -4.72    31.79     3.44   -43.90     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   86.61