Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 8 March 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 3 March 2019, Everton 0 0 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         29   71  +56       2.99    66.75     3.99    92.57     3.17    73.30    68.77    99.74    99.98   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        29   70  +49       8.29    88.47    11.91    90.75     3.36    63.18    31.21    99.03    99.94    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   61  +26       3.50    67.48    -2.69    78.47     3.58    34.29     0.03     1.00    57.03    82.79   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   58  +20       2.88    64.51    -4.23    74.82     3.77    27.13     0.00     0.07    15.81    42.92    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          29   57  +22       4.43    72.11     0.54    73.86     3.99    29.08     0.00     0.03    12.52    35.21    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          28   56  +19       4.60    72.87    -1.25    74.60     3.99    26.53     0.00     0.13    14.71    39.09    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +2       5.67    76.87     7.05    53.76     3.79    -0.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00     0.00  
Watford          29   43   +0       7.37    83.28     7.95    53.95     3.68    -3.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         29   39   -4       2.92    65.55     3.72    50.32     3.76    -6.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton          29   37   +0      -3.29    33.74     0.81    48.37     3.94    -1.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Leicester        29   35   -6      -2.54    37.53    -1.04    47.45     3.86    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth      29   34  -15       1.76    60.13     0.77    46.26     3.96   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   33   -4      -3.32    33.67     2.41    44.58     3.73    -5.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   31  -10      -3.74    31.07    -1.75    41.89     3.85   -12.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.71R    0.00  
Brighton         28   30  -11      -1.11    44.71     1.04    40.16     3.76   -17.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.85R    0.00  
Burnley          29   30  -21      -1.96    40.40    -7.67    38.46     3.53   -27.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.31R    0.00  
Southampton      29   27  -17      -5.54    22.93    -3.81    37.82     3.83   -19.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.38R    0.00  
Cardiff          29   25  -32       0.18    52.69    -5.44    31.63     3.32   -42.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.01R    0.23  
Fulham           29   17  -38      -6.95    15.87    -6.20    24.30     3.48   -47.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.54R   20.09  
Huddersfield     29   14  -36      -7.72    10.79    -6.11    20.01     3.16   -46.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   79.67  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 8 March 2019, Norwich 1 0 Swansea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         36   72  +27      13.24    92.84    12.71    88.95     4.23    32.19    63.78    86.60    99.99    89.69P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    35   67  +21      12.02    91.08    10.56    84.20     4.55    24.07    15.94    45.43    99.51    56.70P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       35   65  +25       7.95    81.06    11.55    83.60     4.45    30.35    14.85    44.15    99.39    57.79P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       35   60  +20      -0.69    46.57     0.50    80.01     4.43    27.79     3.67    15.55    96.04    40.51P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   34   58  +14       2.34    60.68     1.01    78.35     4.60    19.50     1.73     7.73    90.93    32.14P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    34   54   +8       4.01    67.44     3.13    70.88     4.65     8.63     0.02     0.32    37.09     7.29P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           35   54   +2       1.74    57.87    -4.26    71.28     4.45     5.28     0.01     0.19    38.78     8.21P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      35   50   +8       5.27    72.91    13.08    64.40     4.48     6.86     0.00     0.00     4.63     0.63P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   35   50   +7       2.90    63.16     8.47    65.95     4.49     8.28     0.00     0.01     8.16     1.41P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            35   50   +2       0.13    50.95    -0.40    64.80     4.41     1.32     0.00     0.00     4.72     0.86P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     35   48   +8      -7.36    20.41    -3.07    65.61     4.54    11.77     0.00     0.01     8.07     1.97P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         35   48   +5      -3.36    35.57     0.17    63.38     4.45     5.38     0.00     0.00     2.71     0.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       35   48   -7       1.59    57.97    -4.53    62.17     4.38    -8.45     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.19P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         35   47   +2      -5.50    27.34    -4.66    63.68     4.50     4.37     0.00     0.00     3.26     0.82P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       34   46  +12      -7.10    21.51     2.34    63.96     4.74    14.25     0.00     0.00     4.98     1.20P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke           35   44   -5      -5.65    26.81    -7.47    59.41     4.43    -4.33     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackburn       35   44   -8      -0.65    47.46    -2.37    58.29     4.47    -9.50     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.04R    0.00  
QPR             35   42  -13       1.47    57.51    -0.88    55.93     4.38   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.20R    0.00  
Wigan           35   36  -15      -7.84    18.57    -9.20    49.92     4.41   -16.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.72R    0.00  
Millwall        35   34  -15      -8.24    17.16    -6.38    46.64     4.32   -18.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.75R    0.05  
Reading         35   33  -14      -7.30    20.11    -1.84    44.49     4.23   -19.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.44R    0.23  
Rotherham       35   33  -19      -3.08    36.90     0.32    42.62     4.07   -27.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.91R    0.75  
Bolton          35   26  -33      -3.58    33.24    -5.30    36.00     3.98   -40.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.46R   23.97  
Ipswich         35   21  -32     -14.75     3.07   -13.50    31.38     4.05   -39.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.44R   75.00  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 8 March 2019, Coventry 1 2 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                35   75  +40      10.51    88.29    14.88    95.89     4.43    48.77    71.05    92.36   100.00    94.99P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             35   70  +34       3.69    65.58     6.40    90.61     4.40    42.03    16.13    57.34    99.99    73.92P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           34   68  +29       4.76    69.94     3.74    89.78     4.69    37.06    12.33    45.40    99.96    65.04P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   65  +23       9.10    84.31    11.36    82.84     4.49    27.08     0.48     4.47    98.61    25.48P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             35   60  +16       4.74    70.15     5.42    78.21     4.50    20.62     0.01     0.37    90.81    20.82P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   55  +17       2.73    61.96     8.61    73.26     4.70    19.56     0.00     0.05    60.24    11.08P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   55   +8       2.49    61.00     1.46    71.69     4.57    10.31     0.00     0.00    38.86     6.76P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            35   51   +2       2.66    62.09     0.95    65.54     4.39     1.36     0.00     0.00     5.59     0.88P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             36   50   -1       4.43    69.27     3.66    61.44     4.07    -4.19     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.09P    0.04R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   49   +9      -2.11    41.04     4.45    64.78     4.49    10.04     0.00     0.00     4.82     0.87P    0.02R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        36   47   +2      -4.19    32.70    -0.89    59.16     4.19    -0.20     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P    0.45R    0.00  
Wycombe              35   43   -8       2.56    62.00     3.96    56.30     4.44   -10.73     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    5.43R    0.09  
Southend             35   41   -4      -5.56    26.95    -1.65    56.10     4.50    -4.01     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    5.35R    0.09  
Plymouth             35   41  -11      -2.44    39.76    -3.57    53.66     4.40   -14.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.15R    0.27  
Accrington_Stanley   34   41  -11       1.53    57.67    -0.68    54.33     4.52   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    13.04R    0.34  
Scunthorpe           35   41  -18      -3.91    33.64   -12.80    56.18     4.52   -17.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.04R    0.17  
Shrewsbury           35   40   -7      -6.44    23.43    -5.09    55.42     4.46    -6.44     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.48R    0.13  
Gillingham           35   40  -12      -1.97    41.63    -2.20    53.99     4.46   -13.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.08R    0.48  
Oxford_Utd           35   39  -10      -4.94    29.50    -3.46    53.74     4.50   -10.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.81R    0.49  
Walsall              35   39  -18      -1.14    45.31    -6.05    50.68     4.30   -23.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.05R    1.86  
Bristol_Rovers       34   37   -2      -7.65    19.06     0.84    52.43     4.66    -3.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.51R    1.22  
Rochdale             35   34  -32      -2.47    39.87   -12.39    45.72     4.37   -37.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.57R   20.17  
Bradford             35   33  -21      -7.60    19.12    -9.30    45.81     4.39   -24.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.00R   18.16  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   30  -25      -5.72    25.08    -7.63    41.87     4.27   -29.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.99R   56.53  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 8 March 2019, Lincoln_City 1 0 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     36   72  +28      10.75    88.38    10.54    88.41     4.20    32.12    57.66    94.69   100.00    96.16P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             36   67  +29       2.55    60.30     5.57    84.96     4.28    35.43    24.56    85.60    99.94    90.36P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        35   64  +25       4.06    67.69     7.73    82.10     4.40    29.41     9.73    59.29    99.60    72.29P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          35   62  +22       0.20    50.27     1.51    81.55     4.44    28.51     7.94    54.09    99.22    70.35P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         36   58   +9       7.25    78.51     6.95    70.59     4.23     7.36     0.02     0.90    47.19     9.04P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           35   55  +11       0.32    51.39     1.15    72.38     4.51    14.35     0.05     2.27    65.73    18.75P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   54  +16       4.90    71.20    14.55    69.70     4.47    17.00     0.01     0.83    44.65     8.82P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       35   54  +14      -0.99    45.84     3.68    70.33     4.52    15.76     0.03     1.26    49.78    13.34P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         35   53   +9       0.25    50.98     2.07    70.05     4.53    11.94     0.01     0.74    45.81    10.87P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          34   50   +0       1.28    56.16    -3.16    67.75     4.69     1.78     0.00     0.26    24.50     5.35P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        35   49   -5       3.02    63.69    -1.94    63.41     4.41    -5.95     0.00     0.01     4.88     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   34   49   -7       6.47    77.65    -0.51    64.17     4.71    -8.98     0.00     0.04     7.72     1.13P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           35   47   +8      -8.78    16.76    -3.50    63.44     4.53     9.99     0.00     0.02     7.28     1.96P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          35   47   -4       4.28    69.43     3.26    60.12     4.36    -6.73     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.18P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe            36   46   -7       1.07    55.53    -0.23    59.70     4.21    -6.97     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Northampton      35   45   -1      -5.02    29.46    -3.94    61.39     4.48     0.86     0.00     0.00     2.13     0.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Cheltenham       36   42  -12      -1.57    43.78    -2.66    54.11     4.22   -14.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.51R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     35   39  -11      -2.79    38.18    -1.70    52.40     4.39   -13.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.74R    0.24  
Cambridge_Utd    35   39  -22      -1.43    44.45   -11.25    51.61     4.29   -25.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.95R    0.51  
Yeovil           36   36  -13      -5.59    26.61    -1.66    47.91     4.10   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.67R    2.43  
Morecambe        35   35  -19      -2.41    39.65    -3.19    48.01     4.36   -21.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.49R    3.77  
Port_Vale        35   34  -14      -7.77    18.02    -5.95    46.71     4.21   -17.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.42R    4.75  
Macclesfield     35   30  -24      -2.40    39.84     0.28    40.72     4.16   -30.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.04R   44.22  
Notts_County     35   29  -32     -10.09    12.02   -17.60    41.13     4.37   -36.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.16R   44.02  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 March 2019, Barrow 2 3 Leyton_Orient; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            36   69  +20      12.51    92.32     9.55    85.02     4.10    23.42    22.96    94.65    40.80P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      35   67  +31       5.68    74.04    11.43    85.91     4.41    36.67    38.73    96.22    56.36P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     35   67  +28      12.41    91.79    18.20    84.31     4.45    31.42    22.40    92.60    37.45P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          35   63  +29       1.82    57.85     9.08    82.00     4.46    34.75    11.50    83.98    33.93P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       36   63  +23       6.90    76.37    12.74    78.90     4.37    26.25     2.70    59.29    15.22P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     35   60  +19       6.93    76.78    11.45    77.30     4.55    22.48     1.51    43.33    10.05P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          36   59  +13       3.87    66.44     4.21    73.61     4.26    14.37     0.10    13.80     3.26P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          35   58   +1      11.14    89.52     2.43    72.63     4.40     0.39     0.07     8.75     1.39P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      36   57   +4       5.72    73.66     0.86    72.12     4.19     6.28     0.02     6.39     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   36   52  +12      -1.89    41.82     5.00    67.81     4.25    15.10     0.00     0.94     0.24P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            36   47   -2      -3.00    37.36    -2.98    60.51     4.24    -2.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13R    0.00  
Halifax            36   46   -1       1.59    57.88     4.32    57.27     3.99    -3.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.79R    0.00  
Barrow             36   46   -4      -0.01    50.37     0.02    58.91     4.18    -4.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.51R    0.00  
Hartlepool         36   45   -5      -2.69    38.65    -3.00    57.55     4.17    -6.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.03R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          36   44   -3      -6.69    23.26    -5.31    58.27     4.25    -2.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.80R    0.00  
Chesterfield       36   42   -4     -10.80    11.68    -9.48    57.64     4.29    -1.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.35R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       35   42   -8      -4.67    29.71    -7.00    55.77     4.38    -9.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.44R    0.00  
Maidenhead         36   41  -20       0.72    54.13    -6.25    52.01     4.11   -24.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.44R    0.00  
Barnet             32   40  -10      -5.69    25.63   -13.23    59.89     5.19    -8.82     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.28R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     36   39  -14      -8.83    16.11   -12.11    52.13     4.20   -14.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.26R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    36   35  -15      -3.91    34.06     2.28    46.04     4.22   -19.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.19R    0.18  
Aldershot          35   32  -29      -7.92    17.55   -17.99    44.45     4.30   -32.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.20R    1.01  
Maidstone_United   35   26  -34      -6.29    22.09   -10.40    36.71     4.13   -40.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.61R   27.28  
Braintree_Town     36   25  -31      -6.83    21.33    -3.78    32.84     3.74   -40.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   71.52