Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 4 March 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 3 March 2019, Everton 0 0 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         29   71  +56       3.01    66.99     4.05    92.61     3.16    73.38    68.87    99.74    99.99   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        29   70  +49       8.07    87.91    11.59    90.74     3.37    63.20    31.11    99.02    99.90    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        29   61  +26       3.62    67.93    -2.50    78.48     3.56    34.30     0.03     1.01    57.10    82.63   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          29   58  +20       2.96    64.97    -4.04    74.80     3.79    27.09     0.00     0.06    15.75    42.64    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          29   57  +22       4.22    71.15     0.20    73.98     3.97    29.29     0.00     0.03    13.06    36.32    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          28   56  +19       4.74    73.66    -1.08    74.56     3.97    26.45     0.00     0.14    14.19    38.42    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    29   43   +2       5.69    77.02     7.09    53.74     3.79    -0.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00  
Watford          29   43   +0       7.46    83.61     8.05    53.94     3.68    -3.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         29   39   -4       2.81    64.84     3.54    50.36     3.78    -6.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.00  
Everton          29   37   +0      -3.32    33.42     0.82    48.37     3.95    -1.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Leicester        29   35   -6      -2.48    37.59    -0.94    47.44     3.85    -6.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth      29   34  -15       1.83    60.34     0.88    46.22     3.96   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   33   -4      -3.30    33.66     2.50    44.55     3.73    -5.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Newcastle        29   31  -10      -3.88    30.38    -2.01    41.94     3.84   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.67R    0.00  
Brighton         28   30  -11      -0.99    45.38     1.26    40.11     3.77   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.85R    0.00  
Burnley          29   30  -21      -2.08    39.70    -7.91    38.48     3.53   -27.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.16R    0.00  
Southampton      29   27  -17      -5.56    22.64    -3.80    37.82     3.80   -19.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.11R    0.00  
Cardiff          29   25  -32       0.19    52.56    -5.41    31.61     3.31   -42.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.48R    0.23  
Fulham           29   17  -38      -7.08    15.38    -6.46    24.34     3.48   -47.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.58R   19.41  
Huddersfield     29   14  -36      -7.59    11.33    -5.83    19.94     3.14   -46.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   80.36  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 4 March 2019, Sheff_Wed 0 0 Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         35   69  +26      11.91    90.77    12.17    87.69     4.44    31.77    54.78    80.17    99.97    84.70P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    35   67  +21      11.95    91.01    10.46    84.23     4.54    24.09    19.66    47.73    99.59    58.83P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       35   65  +25       7.84    80.75    11.41    83.62     4.46    30.39    18.78    46.25    99.40    59.73P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       35   60  +20      -0.63    47.05     0.62    80.00     4.45    27.74     4.55    16.85    96.21    41.16P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   34   58  +14       2.48    61.58     1.19    78.29     4.61    19.43     2.18     8.54    91.26    32.17P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    34   54   +8       4.00    67.65     3.11    70.89     4.64     8.68     0.04     0.30    38.98     7.61P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           34   51   +1       0.73    53.50    -4.38    70.03     4.65     4.78     0.01     0.13    30.40     6.68P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      35   50   +8       5.35    73.39    13.23    64.40     4.46     6.85     0.00     0.00     4.89     0.70P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   35   50   +7       2.87    63.20     8.39    65.95     4.46     8.28     0.00     0.01     9.00     1.55P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            35   50   +2       0.23    51.26    -0.24    64.70     4.43     1.16     0.00     0.00     5.15     0.90P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     35   48   +8      -7.18    21.36    -2.78    65.57     4.54    11.71     0.00     0.01     8.80     2.19P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         35   48   +5      -3.39    35.40     0.15    63.35     4.45     5.34     0.00     0.00     3.04     0.70P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       35   48   -7       1.58    57.49    -4.60    62.16     4.38    -8.45     0.00     0.00     1.28     0.20P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         34   47   +3      -4.70    29.98    -4.54    64.78     4.71     4.96     0.00     0.01     6.34     1.49P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford       34   46  +12      -7.13    21.05     2.37    63.97     4.71    14.25     0.00     0.00     5.26     1.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           35   44   -5      -5.40    27.64    -7.08    59.37     4.46    -4.39     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.06P    0.03R    0.00  
Blackburn       35   44   -8      -0.95    46.38    -2.85    58.36     4.46    -9.39     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.03R    0.00  
QPR             35   42  -13       1.43    57.26    -0.94    55.91     4.39   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.23R    0.00  
Wigan           34   36  -14      -6.99    21.04    -9.01    50.89     4.62   -16.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.67R    0.00  
Millwall        35   34  -15      -8.36    16.76    -6.56    46.72     4.34   -18.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.71R    0.06  
Reading         35   33  -14      -7.01    20.55    -1.49    44.42     4.25   -19.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.33R    0.19  
Rotherham       35   33  -19      -3.11    36.78     0.33    42.62     4.05   -27.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.02R    0.78  
Bolton          35   26  -33      -3.60    33.13    -5.33    35.99     3.99   -40.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.57R   24.45  
Ipswich         35   21  -32     -14.84     3.05   -13.62    31.45     4.09   -39.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.41R   74.52  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 March 2019, Accrington_Stanley 0 1 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                35   75  +40      10.50    87.86    14.78    95.87     4.42    48.74    71.25    92.51   100.00    95.10P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             35   70  +34       4.08    66.93     7.10    90.46     4.44    41.79    15.81    56.57   100.00    73.41P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           34   68  +29       4.79    70.02     3.78    89.76     4.72    37.04    12.41    45.70    99.95    64.95P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           35   65  +23       8.83    83.63    10.98    82.90     4.47    27.19     0.50     4.72    98.68    26.21P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             35   60  +16       4.82    70.30     5.52    78.21     4.53    20.64     0.03     0.45    90.93    20.93P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            34   55  +17       2.83    62.32     8.73    73.24     4.68    19.51     0.00     0.05    60.73    11.06P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         35   55   +8       2.43    60.57     1.37    71.67     4.55    10.29     0.00     0.01    39.06     6.73P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             35   50   +0       5.23    72.45     3.90    62.95     4.34    -2.96     0.00     0.00     1.88     0.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       35   49   +9      -1.91    41.86     4.67    64.75     4.50    10.00     0.00     0.00     4.96     0.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            34   48   +1       1.40    56.77     0.48    63.95     4.64     0.44     0.00     0.00     3.51     0.55P    0.03R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        35   44   +1      -5.21    28.86    -1.02    57.32     4.39    -1.45     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    2.17R    0.01  
Wycombe              35   43   -8       2.56    62.19     4.03    56.27     4.46   -10.77     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     5.53R    0.08  
Southend             35   41   -4      -5.56    27.13    -1.60    56.17     4.51    -3.91     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    5.46R    0.10  
Accrington_Stanley   33   41  -10       2.74    63.37    -0.01    55.71     4.73   -14.58     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00     8.72R    0.20  
Plymouth             35   41  -11      -2.40    40.12    -3.56    53.67     4.38   -14.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.41R    0.22  
Scunthorpe           35   41  -18      -3.98    33.10   -12.84    56.18     4.51   -17.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.25R    0.20  
Shrewsbury           35   40   -7      -6.71    22.54    -5.46    55.39     4.48    -6.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.69R    0.13  
Gillingham           35   40  -12      -2.12    41.28    -2.51    54.02     4.48   -13.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.42R    0.44  
Oxford_Utd           35   39  -10      -5.03    29.03    -3.57    53.74     4.49   -10.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.22R    0.58  
Walsall              35   39  -18      -1.09    45.74    -5.99    50.70     4.30   -23.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.36R    1.96  
Bristol_Rovers       34   37   -2      -7.73    18.86     0.69    52.47     4.65    -3.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.50R    1.23  
Rochdale             35   34  -32      -2.44    39.70   -12.32    45.72     4.36   -37.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.79R   20.06  
Bradford             35   33  -21      -7.79    18.58    -9.57    45.85     4.38   -24.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.18R   17.76  
AFC_Wimbledon        35   30  -25      -5.70    24.80    -7.58    41.80     4.28   -29.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.23R   57.03  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 March 2019, Bury 3 0 Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     35   69  +27       9.71    86.19    10.35    87.54     4.43    32.25    47.82    91.67   100.00    94.14P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             35   66  +29       3.27    63.73     6.10    85.82     4.55    36.16    33.91    88.20    99.94    92.17P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        35   64  +25       4.15    68.03     7.84    82.14     4.37    29.45     9.96    60.05    99.62    72.94P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          35   62  +22       0.19    50.44     1.51    81.55     4.48    28.53     8.20    54.28    99.24    69.95P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           35   55  +11       0.37    51.64     1.25    72.36     4.49    14.31     0.04     2.21    66.91    19.01P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         35   55   +8       6.10    74.87     6.62    69.16     4.50     6.63     0.02     0.56    36.94     7.11P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     35   54  +16       4.85    70.88    14.47    69.72     4.52    16.99     0.01     0.81    46.18     9.29P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       35   54  +14      -1.00    45.63     3.63    70.32     4.46    15.77     0.03     1.15    51.10    13.28P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         35   53   +9       0.12    50.72     1.91    70.09     4.53    11.98     0.01     0.78    47.24    11.46P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          34   50   +0       1.09    55.13    -3.40    67.80     4.68     1.85     0.00     0.23    25.93     5.47P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        35   49   -5       2.98    63.66    -1.99    63.42     4.39    -5.95     0.00     0.03     5.17     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   34   49   -7       6.45    77.47    -0.52    64.19     4.72    -8.95     0.00     0.02     8.37     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           35   47   +8      -8.81    16.65    -3.58    63.50     4.55    10.03     0.00     0.02     8.07     2.12P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          35   47   -4       4.23    69.42     3.21    60.10     4.38    -6.74     0.00     0.00     1.25     0.18P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            35   46   -6       2.10    59.85     0.42    60.83     4.45    -6.33     0.00     0.00     1.69     0.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton      35   45   -1      -4.94    29.52    -3.83    61.40     4.50     0.86     0.00     0.00     2.32     0.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Cheltenham       35   41  -12      -1.40    44.52    -2.99    54.03     4.43   -15.25     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.75R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     35   39  -11      -2.66    38.46    -1.49    52.34     4.37   -13.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.82R    0.26  
Cambridge_Utd    35   39  -22      -1.42    44.27   -11.25    51.57     4.29   -25.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.98R    0.51  
Yeovil           35   36  -12      -4.85    29.18    -1.48    48.61     4.30   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.95R    2.13  
Morecambe        35   35  -19      -2.55    38.95    -3.33    48.04     4.35   -21.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.73R    3.70  
Port_Vale        35   34  -14      -7.58    18.62    -5.66    46.62     4.19   -17.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.31R    4.92  
Macclesfield     35   30  -24      -2.50    39.37     0.11    40.76     4.15   -30.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.00R   44.49  
Notts_County     35   29  -32     -10.24    11.60   -17.87    41.18     4.35   -36.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.46R   43.92  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 March 2019, AFC_Fylde 2 1 Maidenhead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            36   69  +20      12.60    92.23     9.64    84.95     4.09    23.33    26.51    95.82    43.64P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     35   67  +28      12.31    91.60    18.04    84.36     4.50    31.50    26.26    93.93    40.90P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      34   64  +30       4.61    70.18    11.26    84.46     4.64    35.86    30.49    93.88    50.24P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          35   63  +29       2.01    58.65     9.40    81.95     4.47    34.70    13.23    86.32    35.92P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       35   60  +21       6.12    74.50    11.99    77.23     4.64    24.17     1.92    48.85    12.14P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          36   59  +13       3.66    65.83     3.94    73.62     4.24    14.38     0.15    16.96     3.86P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          35   58   +1      11.06    89.05     2.30    72.55     4.43     0.28     0.09    10.75     1.67P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     34   57  +18       6.06    74.31    11.59    75.79     4.83    21.70     1.19    36.65     8.14P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      35   57   +6       6.27    76.08     1.77    73.42     4.41     8.24     0.16    15.31     3.10P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   36   52  +12      -1.71    42.58     5.28    67.80     4.23    15.12     0.00     1.22     0.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            35   47   -1      -2.12    40.92    -2.76    61.71     4.48    -1.60     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.07R    0.00  
Barrow             35   46   -3       0.94    54.67     0.30    59.98     4.39    -4.23     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.29R    0.00  
Hartlepool         36   45   -5      -2.58    39.03    -2.88    57.54     4.18    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.95R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          35   43   -3      -6.25    24.34    -5.18    58.85     4.53    -1.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.82R    0.00  
Halifax            35   43   -4       0.68    53.81     2.32    55.22     4.18    -7.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.21R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       35   42   -8      -4.80    29.18    -7.20    55.85     4.39    -9.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.18R    0.00  
Barnet             31   40   -7      -5.48    26.03   -11.86    62.06     5.39    -4.70     0.00     0.26     0.07P    0.46R    0.00  
Maidenhead         35   40  -20       0.93    55.01    -6.42    52.20     4.35   -24.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.82R    0.00  
Chesterfield       35   39   -6     -11.33    10.35    -9.99    56.30     4.53    -2.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.10R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     36   39  -14      -8.88    16.24   -12.18    52.19     4.21   -14.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.61R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    36   35  -15      -3.91    34.11     2.31    45.97     4.24   -19.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.58R    0.33  
Aldershot          35   32  -29      -7.97    17.48   -18.12    44.45     4.32   -32.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.42R    1.40  
Maidstone_United   35   26  -34      -6.16    22.70   -10.19    36.64     4.10   -40.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.55R   33.66  
Braintree_Town     35   25  -29      -6.36    22.98    -3.36    33.85     3.99   -38.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.94R   64.61