Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 1 March 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 27 February 2019, Arsenal 5 1 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        28   69  +49       8.94    91.02    11.94    91.81     3.62    64.39    44.34    98.81    99.94   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   68  +55       2.18    62.24     4.00    92.09     3.35    74.61    55.52    99.19    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   60  +26       4.23    71.34    -2.26    79.42     3.84    35.22     0.14     1.87    65.28    86.89   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   56  +22       4.50    72.57     0.04    73.86     4.23    28.43     0.00     0.03    13.23    37.73    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   55  +19       2.16    60.88    -3.69    74.13     3.97    27.55     0.00     0.03    11.07    39.31    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          27   53  +18       3.77    69.37    -0.98    73.91     4.19    27.03     0.00     0.06    10.51    36.07    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    28   40   +0       5.23    75.97     6.92    52.54     4.02    -2.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00     0.00  
Watford          28   40   -1       6.17    79.67     7.66    52.40     3.95    -4.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00  
Everton          28   36   +0      -3.35    33.00     0.28    47.98     4.14    -2.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         28   36   -6       1.78    59.84     2.64    48.78     4.05    -8.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        28   35   -5      -1.46    42.57    -0.45    48.78     4.12    -5.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth      28   34  -14       2.33    63.27     0.29    46.62     4.12   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10R    0.00  
Newcastle        28   31   -8      -3.20    33.48    -0.90    43.32     4.10   -10.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.67R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   30   -6      -4.35    28.42     1.43    42.66     3.98    -8.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.17R    0.00  
Burnley          28   30  -19      -1.24    44.04    -6.81    40.04     3.82   -25.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.86R    0.00  
Brighton         27   27  -12      -2.20    38.64     0.96    39.03     3.99   -17.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.73R    0.00  
Southampton      28   27  -16      -4.77    25.86    -3.95    38.30     3.97   -19.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.77R    0.00  
Cardiff          28   25  -30       0.53    54.48    -4.96    32.50     3.55   -41.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.37R    0.34  
Fulham           28   17  -37      -6.35    17.62    -6.47    24.82     3.65   -48.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.33R   23.67  
Huddersfield     28   14  -35      -6.93    13.12    -5.69    20.84     3.37   -46.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   75.99  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Friday 1 March 2019, Leeds_United 4 0 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    35   67  +21      11.89    90.89    10.35    84.33     4.54    24.28    23.32    49.09    99.36    59.85P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         34   66  +24      11.25    89.88    11.65    86.13     4.73    29.77    41.09    67.57    99.75    74.79P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       34   64  +25       8.30    82.80    11.44    84.17     4.70    30.64    25.84    51.73    99.17    63.40P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       35   60  +20      -0.82    46.02     0.31    80.04     4.45    27.80     5.44    17.83    95.32    41.94P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   33   57  +14       2.68    62.46     0.98    79.02     4.84    19.95     4.15    12.73    90.98    35.51P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    33   53   +8       4.41    69.66     3.20    70.92     4.87     8.11     0.07     0.50    34.04     6.89P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           33   51   +5       0.46    52.27    -2.81    71.66     4.89     9.17     0.08     0.49    41.20     9.79P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      34   50  +10       5.95    75.65    14.03    65.61     4.73     8.56     0.01     0.02     7.63     1.19P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   34   50   +9       3.26    65.03     8.96    67.38     4.70    10.39     0.01     0.02    13.17     2.48P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   47   +5      -2.93    37.26     0.27    64.07     4.69     5.84     0.00     0.01     3.85     0.81P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            34   47   +0      -0.74    47.04    -1.11    63.26     4.66    -0.54     0.00     0.00     2.57     0.41P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       34   47   -7       1.93    59.16    -4.54    62.34     4.66    -8.75     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     34   45   +4      -7.45    20.06    -4.66    63.73     4.77     7.34     0.00     0.00     4.04     0.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         33   44   +1      -5.21    27.86    -4.86    63.81     4.96     3.91     0.00     0.00     4.09     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       34   44   -7       0.33    52.07    -2.11    59.94     4.69    -8.04     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       33   43   +9      -7.39    19.89     1.54    62.58     4.94    11.62     0.00     0.00     2.65     0.61P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             34   42  -10       1.67    58.53     0.20    56.94     4.59   -12.70     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.09R    0.00  
Stoke           34   41   -7      -6.07    24.83    -7.68    57.63     4.64    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    0.06R    0.00  
Wigan           33   35  -14      -6.71    21.98    -8.92    50.96     4.81   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.88R    0.01  
Millwall        34   34  -13      -7.79    18.18    -5.88    48.12     4.57   -16.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.82R    0.07  
Reading         34   30  -15      -8.45    15.87    -2.16    42.66     4.50   -20.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.40R    2.04  
Rotherham       34   30  -20      -4.53    30.46    -0.59    40.79     4.31   -29.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.68R    4.37  
Bolton          34   26  -31      -3.25    34.56    -4.88    36.66     4.16   -39.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.83R   27.36  
Ipswich         34   21  -31     -13.50     4.19   -12.74    32.94     4.36   -38.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.23R   66.16  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 February 2019, Shrewsbury 2 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                34   72  +38       9.98    86.88    14.66    95.08     4.64    48.24    72.61    92.85   100.00    95.27P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             34   67  +31       3.80    66.39     6.18    88.93     4.69    38.93    13.56    52.06    99.96    70.09P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           33   65  +27       4.29    68.75     3.52    88.79     4.92    36.03    13.19    48.79    99.90    67.05P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           34   62  +19       8.92    84.34     9.52    81.33     4.73    23.28     0.50     4.73    96.93    25.01P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             34   59  +16       5.19    72.39     5.51    78.55     4.73    20.55     0.12     1.33    91.20    21.89P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            33   54  +17       3.17    63.94     8.72    73.70     4.94    19.68     0.01     0.23    65.59    12.64P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         34   52   +6       1.93    58.54     1.13    70.22     4.79     8.57     0.00     0.00    28.55     4.95P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       34   48   +9      -1.52    43.56     4.74    65.55     4.71    10.66     0.00     0.00     7.55     1.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Blackpool            33   48   +5       1.33    56.50     2.47    65.73     4.87     5.08     0.00     0.00     8.15     1.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry             34   47   -1       3.82    67.40     3.27    61.27     4.55    -3.97     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.14P    0.23R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   43   +1      -4.96    29.27    -1.08    58.18     4.68    -0.78     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P    1.94R    0.01  
Wycombe              34   43   -6       2.98    63.86     4.28    57.43     4.70    -9.09     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    3.85R    0.04  
Southend             34   41   -1      -5.20    27.94    -0.17    57.31     4.74    -1.24     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    3.62R    0.08  
Plymouth             34   41   -9      -2.02    41.34    -3.19    54.51     4.57   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   12.04R    0.20  
Accrington_Stanley   32   41   -9       3.62    67.27     0.37    57.18     4.99   -13.40     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    5.50R    0.12  
Scunthorpe           34   41  -17      -2.99    37.41   -12.56    57.55     4.77   -16.93     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    4.92R    0.11  
Shrewsbury           34   39   -7      -5.97    24.76    -4.93    56.25     4.71    -5.81     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    6.41R    0.15  
Gillingham           34   39  -12      -1.92    41.89    -2.75    54.01     4.68   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.67R    0.72  
Walsall              34   38  -18      -1.09    45.95    -6.40    50.72     4.54   -23.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.12R    2.72  
Oxford_Utd           34   36  -11      -6.09    24.88    -3.86    52.00     4.74   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.66R    1.86  
Bristol_Rovers       33   34   -6      -7.69    18.09    -0.95    50.19     4.83    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.32R    4.01  
Rochdale             34   34  -30      -2.24    40.56   -12.40    46.39     4.55   -37.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.73R   17.73  
Bradford             34   33  -17      -7.91    18.06    -8.23    47.11     4.62   -20.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.36R   12.54  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   29  -25      -5.66    24.87    -7.85    41.78     4.46   -30.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.59R   59.70  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 February 2019, Lincoln_City 1 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     34   66  +26       8.51    83.35     9.98    85.81     4.66    31.08    41.20    86.91    99.87    90.60P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             34   63  +26       2.91    62.21     5.16    85.11     4.73    34.75    37.45    86.26    99.79    90.52P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        34   61  +23       3.60    66.21     7.53    80.99     4.61    28.12    10.42    55.03    98.55    68.35P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          34   59  +21      -0.67    46.63     1.55    80.63     4.66    28.61     9.96    52.56    98.01    67.87P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           34   55  +12       1.64    57.58     2.07    74.29     4.75    16.12     0.47     8.13    75.77    25.48P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       34   54  +17      -0.50    47.70     5.35    71.95     4.70    19.14     0.22     4.26    60.53    18.04P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   54  +17       5.74    74.42    14.72    71.09     4.69    17.99     0.13     2.81    52.72    11.90P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         34   53  +11       0.87    53.98     2.92    71.88     4.77    14.64     0.14     3.39    58.45    15.98P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         34   52   +7       4.69    70.31     6.05    66.87     4.69     4.62     0.01     0.35    18.27     3.62P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        34   48   -5       3.12    64.30    -2.32    63.23     4.60    -6.79     0.00     0.02     4.35     0.70P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          34   47   -2       5.14    72.93     4.43    61.95     4.64    -4.06     0.00     0.02     2.62     0.40P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          33   47   -3       0.44    52.40    -4.95    65.86     4.91    -1.63     0.00     0.14    13.16     2.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           34   46   +8      -8.08    18.55    -3.02    64.42     4.78    10.87     0.00     0.09     9.86     2.63P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            34   46   -4       2.67    62.49     1.20    62.62     4.67    -3.70     0.00     0.00     3.49     0.58P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   33   46   -9       5.39    74.07    -1.61    62.27     4.92   -11.38     0.00     0.01     3.69     0.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton      34   42   -3      -5.79    26.35    -4.59    59.40     4.74    -1.73     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.19P    0.04R    0.01  
Cheltenham       34   41  -10      -0.88    46.53    -2.41    54.92     4.63   -13.90     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.54R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     34   39  -10      -2.16    40.62    -1.78    53.01     4.55   -13.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.60R    0.24  
Cambridge_Utd    34   36  -24      -2.51    39.10   -12.35    49.40     4.46   -28.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.49R    2.48  
Morecambe        34   35  -18      -1.77    42.27    -3.40    49.26     4.58   -21.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.06R    2.80  
Yeovil           34   33  -13      -6.14    23.80    -2.12    47.12     4.49   -16.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.50R    5.43  
Port_Vale        34   33  -14      -7.38    19.21    -5.71    46.91     4.45   -17.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.27R    6.30  
Macclesfield     34   30  -21      -2.49    39.01     0.82    41.45     4.32   -28.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.45R   40.04  
Notts_County     34   28  -32      -9.73    12.38   -17.49    41.61     4.59   -36.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.05R   42.62  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 February 2019, Barnet 0 2 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            35   66  +19      11.15    90.04     8.90    83.38     4.35    22.43    23.59    91.61    40.83P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   64  +23      13.00    93.12    16.41    82.95     4.68    26.78    23.59    89.44    37.61P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      33   61  +29       3.59    66.22    11.28    83.37     4.88    35.68    31.73    90.55    50.14P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          34   60  +28       1.21    55.11     9.75    81.06     4.65    34.79    14.91    82.55    36.21P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          34   58   +2      12.13    91.27     2.84    74.38     4.67     1.90     0.71    23.45     4.27P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       34   57  +20       4.98    70.51    11.82    75.27     4.86    22.69     1.57    36.38     9.39P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     33   56  +18       6.27    75.20    11.28    76.48     5.07    22.15     3.19    45.90    12.26P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          35   56  +11       3.10    63.55     3.48    71.93     4.46    12.32     0.12    12.19     2.88P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      34   56   +6       7.03    79.03     2.32    74.05     4.64     8.56     0.57    22.62     5.10P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   52  +13      -0.69    46.82     5.81    69.49     4.48    16.54     0.02     4.83     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            34   47   +1      -1.34    44.19    -1.67    63.56     4.74     1.04     0.00     0.27     0.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Barrow             34   46   -1       1.63    58.14     1.42    61.26     4.57    -2.31     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.16R    0.00  
Hartlepool         35   44   -5      -2.27    40.38    -2.99    57.70     4.38    -6.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.25R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          34   42   -3      -6.17    24.21    -5.65    58.99     4.75    -2.23     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.93R    0.00  
Halifax            34   40   -5      -0.73    47.37     1.66    53.23     4.39    -8.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.63R    0.00  
Maidenhead         34   40  -19       1.72    58.67    -6.48    52.86     4.51   -24.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.63R    0.01  
Chesterfield       34   39   -5     -10.44    11.91    -9.58    57.46     4.73    -1.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.13R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       34   39  -10      -5.59    25.90    -8.05    53.72     4.59   -12.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.96R    0.00  
Barnet             30   37   -9      -6.44    21.72   -12.85    60.27     5.56    -6.88     0.00     0.14     0.03P    1.44R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     35   36  -17      -9.10    15.19   -13.09    50.88     4.45   -17.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.32R    0.09  
Havant_&_Wville    35   35  -14      -3.26    36.70     2.08    46.91     4.48   -19.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.19R    0.61  
Aldershot          34   32  -27      -7.25    19.43   -16.97    45.72     4.55   -30.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.78R    1.80  
Maidstone_United   34   26  -29      -6.91    19.89    -8.80    37.75     4.35   -36.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.82R   34.10  
Braintree_Town     34   25  -26      -6.53    21.90    -2.91    35.02     4.22   -36.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.72R   63.39