Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 28 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 27 February 2019, Arsenal 5 1 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        28   69  +49       8.88    90.83    11.85    91.84     3.59    64.42    44.45    98.86    99.94    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   68  +55       2.26    62.87     4.14    92.08     3.37    74.53    55.43    99.19    99.97   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   60  +26       4.21    71.35    -2.26    79.40     3.83    35.22     0.12     1.79    65.31    86.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   56  +22       4.47    72.60    -0.01    73.82     4.21    28.38     0.00     0.04    12.93    37.26    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   55  +19       2.04    60.51    -3.89    74.16     3.98    27.60     0.00     0.05    11.36    39.87    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          27   53  +18       3.82    69.61    -0.90    73.87     4.19    27.01     0.00     0.07    10.50    35.89    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    28   40   +0       5.02    74.86     6.58    52.62     4.02    -2.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00     0.00  
Watford          28   40   -1       6.03    79.54     7.48    52.36     3.97    -4.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00  
Everton          28   36   +0      -3.21    33.75     0.51    48.02     4.12    -2.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham         28   36   -6       1.95    60.92     2.89    48.77     4.01    -8.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        28   35   -5      -1.60    41.96    -0.71    48.80     4.10    -5.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth      28   34  -14       2.36    63.37     0.35    46.61     4.12   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Newcastle        28   31   -8      -3.10    34.03    -0.79    43.29     4.10   -10.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.70R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   30   -6      -4.17    28.88     1.62    42.63     3.99    -8.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.22R    0.00  
Burnley          28   30  -19      -1.31    43.52    -6.97    40.08     3.84   -25.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.76R    0.00  
Brighton         27   27  -12      -2.19    38.69     0.93    39.07     4.00   -17.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.60R    0.00  
Southampton      28   27  -16      -4.87    25.56    -4.05    38.33     3.98   -19.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.84R    0.00  
Cardiff          28   25  -30       0.63    54.96    -4.81    32.48     3.55   -41.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.49R    0.36  
Fulham           28   17  -37      -6.36    17.67    -6.44    24.79     3.66   -48.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.33R   23.36  
Huddersfield     28   14  -35      -6.86    13.14    -5.53    20.82     3.39   -46.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   76.28  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 February 2019, Bristol_City 1 2 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         34   66  +24      11.19    89.33    11.61    86.13     4.75    29.77    42.27    67.84    99.75    75.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       34   64  +25       8.34    82.66    11.46    84.20     4.68    30.68    26.39    52.66    99.24    64.42P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    34   64  +17      11.92    91.37     8.96    82.14     4.77    19.38    12.73    30.97    97.45    44.08P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       34   60  +24      -1.12    44.46     1.78    81.94     4.67    32.63    14.16    34.56    97.68    55.57P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   33   57  +14       2.72    62.45     1.05    79.00     4.84    19.94     4.28    12.80    91.03    36.10P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    33   53   +8       4.52    70.24     3.33    70.89     4.86     8.09     0.08     0.53    34.18     6.86P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           33   51   +5       0.48    52.10    -2.72    71.56     4.88     9.05     0.09     0.56    40.65     9.86P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      34   50  +10       5.99    75.68    14.06    65.59     4.69     8.54     0.00     0.02     7.53     1.16P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   34   50   +9       3.31    65.05     9.13    67.30     4.71    10.28     0.00     0.03    12.92     2.34P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   47   +5      -3.06    36.78     0.06    64.08     4.69     5.85     0.00     0.01     4.05     0.86P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            34   47   +0      -0.70    47.28    -1.13    63.20     4.65    -0.69     0.00     0.01     2.43     0.42P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed       34   47   -7       1.89    58.84    -4.61    62.44     4.66    -8.57     0.00     0.00     1.66     0.26P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     34   45   +4      -7.33    20.41    -4.45    63.84     4.78     7.49     0.00     0.01     4.28     1.03P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         33   44   +1      -5.09    28.32    -4.75    63.76     4.91     3.80     0.00     0.00     3.79     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       34   44   -7       0.45    52.81    -1.88    59.87     4.71    -8.12     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       33   43   +9      -7.43    19.97     1.45    62.61     4.94    11.63     0.00     0.00     2.71     0.61P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             34   42  -10       1.47    57.56    -0.12    57.00     4.60   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.07R    0.00  
Stoke           34   41   -7      -6.16    24.66    -7.86    57.67     4.67    -6.48     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.04P    0.05R    0.00  
Wigan           33   35  -14      -6.91    21.22    -9.16    51.14     4.86   -16.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.52R    0.03  
Millwall        34   34  -13      -7.75    18.30    -5.81    48.08     4.60   -16.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.86R    0.08  
Reading         34   30  -15      -8.32    16.15    -2.04    42.55     4.47   -21.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.53R    2.12  
Rotherham       34   30  -20      -4.21    31.59    -0.08    40.67     4.28   -29.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.14R    4.74  
Bolton          34   26  -31      -3.22    34.53    -4.87    36.63     4.16   -39.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.72R   28.29  
Ipswich         34   21  -31     -13.87     3.76   -13.41    33.08     4.34   -37.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.07R   64.74  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 February 2019, Shrewsbury 2 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                34   72  +38       9.98    87.13    14.68    95.11     4.62    48.25    73.07    92.96   100.00    95.26P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             34   67  +31       3.83    66.45     6.13    88.93     4.68    38.93    13.26    52.31    99.96    70.09P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           33   65  +27       4.37    68.64     3.63    88.76     4.92    36.01    13.04    48.60    99.88    66.57P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           34   62  +19       9.08    84.75     9.78    81.33     4.68    23.27     0.52     4.50    96.84    24.59P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             34   59  +16       5.17    72.05     5.48    78.51     4.75    20.55     0.10     1.35    91.07    22.25P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            33   54  +17       3.03    63.40     8.50    73.75     4.96    19.74     0.02     0.27    65.62    12.87P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         34   52   +6       1.88    58.19     1.10    70.26     4.79     8.63     0.00     0.01    28.66     5.20P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       34   48   +9      -1.52    43.33     4.70    65.57     4.71    10.69     0.00     0.00     7.66     1.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool            33   48   +5       1.38    56.78     2.52    65.73     4.87     5.05     0.00     0.00     8.21     1.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             34   47   -1       4.25    68.92     3.85    61.12     4.56    -4.19     0.00     0.00     1.06     0.14P    0.31R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   43   +1      -4.71    30.23    -0.79    58.18     4.67    -0.78     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P    1.94R    0.01  
Wycombe              34   43   -6       2.97    63.87     4.22    57.40     4.69    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    3.85R    0.05  
Southend             34   41   -1      -5.31    27.59    -0.36    57.34     4.73    -1.20     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    3.56R    0.07  
Plymouth             34   41   -9      -2.04    41.34    -3.22    54.48     4.55   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   11.88R    0.26  
Accrington_Stanley   32   41   -9       3.74    67.58     0.57    57.13     5.02   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P    5.84R    0.12  
Scunthorpe           34   41  -17      -3.11    36.79   -12.71    57.60     4.76   -16.85     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P    4.92R    0.11  
Shrewsbury           34   39   -7      -6.32    23.51    -5.40    56.31     4.72    -5.72     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    6.26R    0.17  
Gillingham           34   39  -12      -1.91    41.94    -2.67    53.97     4.68   -14.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.06R    0.77  
Walsall              34   38  -18      -1.04    45.89    -6.34    50.77     4.53   -23.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.83R    2.36  
Oxford_Utd           34   36  -11      -6.31    23.74    -4.12    52.04     4.75   -11.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.76R    1.89  
Bristol_Rovers       33   34   -6      -7.88    17.81    -1.29    50.23     4.86    -8.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.99R    4.09  
Rochdale             34   34  -30      -2.01    41.88   -12.04    46.30     4.52   -37.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.53R   18.27  
Bradford             34   33  -17      -7.96    17.85    -8.23    47.17     4.61   -20.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.71R   12.09  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   29  -25      -5.77    24.83    -7.99    41.76     4.45   -30.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.54R   59.74  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 February 2019, Lincoln_City 1 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     34   66  +26       8.63    83.93    10.15    85.76     4.68    30.99    40.86    86.75    99.89    90.31P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             34   63  +26       3.11    63.25     5.51    85.09     4.72    34.71    37.87    86.31    99.81    90.44P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        34   61  +23       3.59    65.89     7.48    80.99     4.61    28.12    10.45    54.86    98.58    68.01P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          34   59  +21      -0.57    47.17     1.70    80.62     4.66    28.60     9.79    52.96    98.02    68.17P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           34   55  +12       1.55    56.97     1.92    74.28     4.73    16.11     0.47     7.87    75.58    25.27P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       34   54  +17      -0.55    47.32     5.29    71.97     4.74    19.19     0.25     4.42    61.05    18.45P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   54  +17       5.75    74.52    14.74    71.06     4.72    17.95     0.13     2.77    52.63    11.99P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         34   53  +11       0.88    54.09     2.98    71.89     4.80    14.64     0.17     3.48    58.19    16.02P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         34   52   +7       4.81    70.67     6.23    66.84     4.66     4.57     0.01     0.32    18.21     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        34   48   -5       2.99    63.69    -2.55    63.27     4.62    -6.73     0.00     0.04     4.55     0.83P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          34   47   -2       5.02    72.69     4.36    61.97     4.64    -4.03     0.00     0.00     2.87     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          33   47   -3       0.66    53.36    -4.63    65.81     4.87    -1.71     0.00     0.13    12.68     2.58P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           34   46   +8      -8.26    18.20    -3.34    64.46     4.80    10.93     0.00     0.07    10.04     2.70P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            34   46   -4       2.83    63.38     1.44    62.59     4.68    -3.75     0.00     0.01     3.46     0.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   33   46   -9       5.29    73.65    -1.76    62.31     4.94   -11.36     0.00     0.01     3.65     0.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton      34   42   -3      -5.71    26.58    -4.54    59.35     4.73    -1.76     0.00     0.01     0.76     0.17P    0.03R    0.01  
Cheltenham       34   41  -10      -1.06    45.98    -2.74    55.01     4.62   -13.78     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.49R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     34   39  -10      -2.31    40.23    -1.99    53.08     4.52   -13.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.52R    0.21  
Cambridge_Utd    34   36  -24      -2.51    38.97   -12.31    49.37     4.47   -28.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.60R    2.43  
Morecambe        34   35  -18      -1.70    42.76    -3.30    49.26     4.59   -21.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.27R    2.90  
Yeovil           34   33  -13      -6.15    23.83    -2.13    47.17     4.55   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.73R    5.59  
Port_Vale        34   33  -14      -7.43    19.00    -5.84    46.89     4.43   -17.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.19R    6.45  
Macclesfield     34   30  -21      -2.46    39.49     0.85    41.42     4.32   -28.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.23R   39.87  
Notts_County     34   28  -32      -9.77    12.47   -17.53    41.61     4.59   -36.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.93R   42.49  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 February 2019, Barnet 0 2 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            35   66  +19      11.28    90.37     9.11    83.34     4.35    22.39    23.22    91.24    40.19P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   64  +23      13.09    93.28    16.45    82.99     4.69    26.82    24.18    89.39    37.83P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      33   61  +29       3.58    66.20    11.29    83.31     4.86    35.62    30.92    90.35    49.62P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          34   60  +28       1.11    54.65     9.62    81.15     4.66    34.95    15.43    82.93    36.68P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          34   58   +2      12.13    91.55     2.88    74.37     4.66     1.91     0.72    23.39     4.31P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       34   57  +20       4.86    69.99    11.59    75.29     4.86    22.71     1.62    35.93     9.48P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     33   56  +18       6.28    75.21    11.36    76.51     5.07    22.21     3.12    45.81    12.20P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          35   56  +11       2.99    63.32     3.30    71.94     4.47    12.31     0.15    12.36     2.91P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      34   56   +6       6.84    78.38     2.02    74.13     4.65     8.65     0.62    23.11     5.48P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   52  +13      -0.89    46.15     5.52    69.52     4.50    16.63     0.01     4.91     1.17P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            34   47   +1      -1.43    43.88    -1.78    63.58     4.76     1.10     0.00     0.31     0.06P    0.04R    0.00  
Barrow             34   46   -1       1.45    57.32     1.19    61.37     4.59    -2.18     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.16R    0.00  
Hartlepool         35   44   -5      -2.32    40.23    -3.07    57.67     4.38    -6.85     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.17R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          34   42   -3      -5.89    25.15    -5.23    58.91     4.75    -2.35     0.00     0.01     0.01P    0.99R    0.00  
Halifax            34   40   -5      -0.72    47.26     1.72    53.18     4.36    -8.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.78R    0.00  
Maidenhead         34   40  -19       1.69    58.71    -6.46    52.81     4.51   -24.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.92R    0.00  
Chesterfield       34   39   -5     -10.57    11.73    -9.75    57.53     4.75    -1.87     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.07R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       34   39  -10      -5.53    26.46    -7.93    53.65     4.63   -12.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.18R    0.01  
Barnet             30   37   -9      -6.53    21.38   -13.00    60.39     5.60    -6.71     0.00     0.20     0.05P    1.37R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     35   36  -17      -9.22    14.75   -13.26    50.92     4.42   -17.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.84R    0.07  
Havant_&_Wville    35   35  -14      -3.22    36.83     2.13    46.88     4.45   -19.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.32R    0.55  
Aldershot          34   32  -27      -7.25    19.37   -16.94    45.71     4.53   -30.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.56R    1.67  
Maidstone_United   34   26  -29      -6.69    20.62    -8.46    37.67     4.32   -36.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.88R   33.60  
Braintree_Town     34   25  -26      -6.18    23.02    -2.30    34.88     4.21   -36.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.73R   64.10