Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 27 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 27 February 2019, Arsenal 5 1 Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        28   69  +49       8.95    91.15    11.93    91.81     3.62    64.41    44.46    98.70    99.94    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         28   68  +55       2.23    62.18     4.05    92.08     3.36    74.55    55.43    99.13    99.96   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        28   60  +26       4.08    70.92    -2.43    79.46     3.83    35.28     0.12     2.00    65.67    87.18   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          28   56  +22       4.40    72.32    -0.07    73.83     4.21    28.41     0.00     0.06    12.73    37.24    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          28   55  +19       2.06    60.35    -3.86    74.17     3.97    27.62     0.00     0.05    11.38    39.82    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          27   53  +18       3.89    70.07    -0.81    73.90     4.20    27.05     0.00     0.05    10.32    35.76    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    28   40   +0       5.14    75.24     6.74    52.57     4.04    -2.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     0.00  
Watford          28   40   -1       6.07    79.37     7.55    52.38     3.95    -4.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00     0.00  
Everton          28   36   +0      -3.40    32.72     0.26    48.04     4.14    -2.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham         28   36   -6       1.88    60.48     2.79    48.73     4.01    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        28   35   -5      -1.44    42.95    -0.48    48.75     4.12    -5.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00R    0.00  
Bournemouth      28   34  -14       2.37    63.16     0.40    46.62     4.11   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08R    0.00  
Newcastle        28   31   -8      -3.12    33.85    -0.79    43.29     4.12   -10.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.66R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   30   -6      -4.24    28.80     1.59    42.66     3.98    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.30R    0.00  
Burnley          28   30  -19      -1.27    43.92    -6.88    40.04     3.83   -25.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.86R    0.00  
Brighton         27   27  -12      -2.15    38.71     1.02    39.00     4.03   -17.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.24R    0.00  
Southampton      28   27  -16      -4.90    25.50    -4.14    38.35     3.97   -19.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.76R    0.00  
Cardiff          28   25  -30       0.53    54.49    -4.93    32.55     3.57   -41.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.80R    0.31  
Fulham           28   17  -37      -6.34    17.59    -6.44    24.79     3.64   -48.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.34R   23.43  
Huddersfield     28   14  -35      -6.84    13.37    -5.51    20.84     3.36   -46.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.94R   76.26  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 February 2019, Bristol_City 1 2 Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         34   66  +24      11.27    89.68    11.72    86.08     4.74    29.70    41.90    67.69    99.76    75.10P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       34   64  +25       8.39    82.92    11.58    84.17     4.70    30.66    26.22    52.33    99.28    64.14P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    34   64  +17      11.92    91.30     8.94    82.17     4.79    19.43    13.14    31.03    97.32    44.18P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       34   60  +24      -1.07    44.74     1.77    81.96     4.64    32.66    14.14    34.41    97.79    55.70P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   33   57  +14       2.62    62.31     0.95    79.08     4.82    20.01     4.40    13.29    91.27    36.63P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    33   53   +8       4.46    69.76     3.32    70.91     4.85     8.09     0.11     0.64    33.81     6.84P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           33   51   +5       0.41    52.15    -2.87    71.60     4.89     9.11     0.09     0.54    40.65     9.65P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      34   50  +10       5.93    75.62    13.95    65.64     4.73     8.61     0.00     0.02     7.61     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   34   50   +9       3.26    64.76     9.04    67.34     4.69    10.32     0.00     0.05    13.16     2.34P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   47   +5      -2.99    36.55     0.15    64.03     4.73     5.79     0.00     0.01     4.02     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            34   47   +0      -0.59    47.91    -0.98    63.24     4.68    -0.64     0.00     0.00     2.53     0.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       34   47   -7       1.91    59.12    -4.56    62.44     4.66    -8.57     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.28P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     34   45   +4      -7.19    21.08    -4.21    63.70     4.80     7.34     0.00     0.01     4.03     0.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         33   44   +1      -5.17    28.29    -4.78    63.70     4.93     3.74     0.00     0.00     3.93     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       34   44   -7       0.31    52.04    -2.14    59.90     4.74    -8.10     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       33   43   +9      -7.54    19.48     1.25    62.58     4.91    11.63     0.00     0.00     2.62     0.65P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             34   42  -10       1.40    57.10    -0.22    57.04     4.59   -12.54     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00     0.06R    0.00  
Stoke           34   41   -7      -6.12    24.53    -7.77    57.67     4.64    -6.50     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.07R    0.00  
Wigan           33   35  -14      -6.74    22.09    -8.94    51.05     4.90   -16.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.77R    0.01  
Millwall        34   34  -13      -7.87    17.87    -5.94    48.14     4.58   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.44R    0.06  
Reading         34   30  -15      -8.32    16.25    -2.06    42.61     4.47   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.81R    2.16  
Rotherham       34   30  -20      -4.30    31.21    -0.25    40.66     4.29   -29.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.83R    4.61  
Bolton          34   26  -31      -3.26    34.82    -4.96    36.66     4.15   -39.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.86R   27.32  
Ipswich         34   21  -31     -13.63     4.16   -12.99    32.98     4.37   -38.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.14R   65.84  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 February 2019, Shrewsbury 2 0 Doncaster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                34   72  +38      10.07    87.34    14.83    95.04     4.63    48.17    72.48    92.71   100.00    95.06P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             34   67  +31       3.69    65.96     5.97    88.97     4.70    39.01    13.67    52.52    99.96    70.20P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           33   65  +27       4.20    68.19     3.45    88.76     4.91    36.06    13.19    48.46    99.89    66.93P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           34   62  +19       8.92    84.19     9.56    81.36     4.73    23.31     0.52     4.73    96.79    24.63P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             34   59  +16       5.18    72.26     5.55    78.59     4.74    20.64     0.12     1.37    91.21    22.33P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            33   54  +17       3.23    64.16     8.81    73.65     4.92    19.59     0.01     0.21    65.10    12.59P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         34   52   +6       1.74    57.80     0.84    70.32     4.77     8.70     0.00     0.01    29.34     5.28P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       34   48   +9      -1.40    43.84     4.91    65.56     4.72    10.68     0.00     0.00     7.72     1.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool            33   48   +5       1.52    57.39     2.73    65.66     4.85     4.97     0.00     0.00     7.83     1.39P    0.03R    0.00  
Coventry             34   47   -1       4.05    68.00     3.56    61.21     4.58    -4.08     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.14P    0.33R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   43   +1      -5.04    28.99    -1.26    58.26     4.67    -0.68     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.04P    1.79R    0.01  
Wycombe              34   43   -6       3.12    64.55     4.45    57.35     4.68    -9.20     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P    3.92R    0.05  
Southend             34   41   -1      -5.32    27.79    -0.42    57.35     4.72    -1.18     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    3.61R    0.06  
Plymouth             34   41   -9      -2.00    41.48    -3.16    54.46     4.57   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   12.25R    0.23  
Accrington_Stanley   32   41   -9       3.64    67.11     0.41    57.19     5.00   -13.43     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.01P    5.54R    0.10  
Scunthorpe           34   41  -17      -3.04    37.46   -12.67    57.54     4.78   -16.94     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    4.93R    0.15  
Shrewsbury           34   39   -7      -6.19    24.15    -5.22    56.26     4.72    -5.80     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    6.46R    0.17  
Gillingham           34   39  -12      -1.85    42.11    -2.60    53.96     4.65   -14.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.93R    0.71  
Walsall              34   38  -18      -1.10    45.81    -6.44    50.70     4.53   -23.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.35R    2.46  
Oxford_Utd           34   36  -11      -6.28    23.74    -4.15    52.06     4.74   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.15R    1.89  
Bristol_Rovers       33   34   -6      -7.85    17.76    -1.23    50.31     4.85    -8.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.46R    3.93  
Rochdale             34   34  -30      -2.05    41.55   -12.14    46.30     4.49   -37.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.46R   17.90  
Bradford             34   33  -17      -7.85    18.05    -8.11    47.11     4.61   -20.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.27R   12.47  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   29  -25      -5.57    25.18    -7.67    41.74     4.49   -30.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.50R   59.90  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 February 2019, Lincoln_City 1 1 Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     34   66  +26       8.47    83.19     9.94    85.78     4.67    31.04    41.58    86.91    99.87    90.39P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             34   63  +26       3.10    63.19     5.51    85.02     4.70    34.63    37.10    86.21    99.77    90.35P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        34   61  +23       3.73    66.91     7.68    80.95     4.57    28.08    10.37    54.73    98.57    68.14P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          34   59  +21      -0.74    46.22     1.50    80.63     4.67    28.60    10.00    52.88    97.98    68.34P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           34   55  +12       1.59    57.09     2.01    74.25     4.74    16.08     0.41     7.89    75.59    25.32P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       34   54  +17      -0.60    47.48     5.23    72.01     4.71    19.24     0.23     4.50    61.06    18.60P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   54  +17       5.81    74.70    14.79    71.04     4.70    17.93     0.13     2.83    52.38    11.94P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         34   53  +11       0.89    54.24     2.94    71.93     4.78    14.67     0.18     3.52    58.47    15.69P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         34   52   +7       4.55    69.84     5.82    66.91     4.67     4.68     0.01     0.28    18.33     3.46P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        34   48   -5       2.97    63.80    -2.60    63.30     4.63    -6.68     0.00     0.03     4.42     0.75P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          34   47   -2       5.22    73.74     4.57    61.88     4.61    -4.18     0.00     0.01     2.57     0.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          33   47   -3       0.54    52.80    -4.81    65.82     4.91    -1.68     0.00     0.12    12.95     2.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           34   46   +8      -8.24    17.95    -3.29    64.44     4.75    10.93     0.00     0.07     9.90     2.65P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            34   46   -4       2.72    62.66     1.26    62.57     4.68    -3.75     0.00     0.01     3.44     0.58P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   33   46   -9       5.27    73.66    -1.84    62.34     4.93   -11.29     0.00     0.02     3.89     0.58P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      34   42   -3      -5.55    26.94    -4.27    59.31     4.73    -1.86     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.16P    0.04R    0.00  
Cheltenham       34   41  -10      -0.86    46.67    -2.40    54.95     4.61   -13.87     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.47R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     34   39  -10      -2.27    40.05    -1.97    53.08     4.56   -13.48     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.50R    0.23  
Cambridge_Utd    34   36  -24      -2.61    38.62   -12.51    49.43     4.47   -28.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.47R    2.38  
Morecambe        34   35  -18      -1.69    43.16    -3.22    49.30     4.56   -21.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.75R    2.76  
Yeovil           34   33  -13      -6.03    24.30    -1.93    47.09     4.49   -16.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.72R    5.45  
Port_Vale        34   33  -14      -7.47    18.69    -5.84    46.94     4.44   -17.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.15R    6.40  
Macclesfield     34   30  -21      -2.48    39.38     0.76    41.43     4.31   -28.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.49R   40.29  
Notts_County     34   28  -32      -9.62    12.71   -17.32    41.59     4.58   -36.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.41R   42.42  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 26 February 2019, Barnet 0 2 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            35   66  +19      11.28    90.27     9.11    83.35     4.34    22.41    23.28    91.22    40.18P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   64  +23      12.94    92.88    16.29    83.01     4.70    26.87    24.07    89.56    37.70P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      33   61  +29       3.55    65.60    11.21    83.35     4.84    35.65    31.38    90.56    50.09P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          34   60  +28       1.05    54.40     9.46    81.17     4.66    34.99    15.17    82.87    36.62P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          34   58   +2      12.20    91.64     3.00    74.33     4.63     1.81     0.60    22.94     4.12P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       34   57  +20       4.83    69.91    11.60    75.28     4.86    22.69     1.64    35.92     9.48P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     33   56  +18       6.36    75.73    11.53    76.54     5.07    22.23     3.14    45.94    12.14P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          35   56  +11       3.06    63.44     3.38    71.93     4.47    12.30     0.13    12.33     3.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      34   56   +6       6.83    78.27     2.01    74.17     4.64     8.74     0.58    23.26     5.39P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   52  +13      -0.80    46.73     5.65    69.52     4.47    16.59     0.02     4.83     1.16P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            34   47   +1      -1.50    43.63    -1.91    63.60     4.76     1.13     0.00     0.34     0.06P    0.04R    0.00  
Barrow             34   46   -1       1.57    57.90     1.31    61.30     4.59    -2.25     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.16R    0.00  
Hartlepool         35   44   -5      -2.40    39.62    -3.12    57.69     4.39    -6.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.24R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          34   42   -3      -6.06    24.68    -5.48    58.96     4.76    -2.25     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.90R    0.00  
Halifax            34   40   -5      -0.69    47.62     1.71    53.24     4.39    -8.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.48R    0.01  
Maidenhead         34   40  -19       1.82    59.43    -6.25    52.75     4.51   -24.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.06R    0.01  
Chesterfield       34   39   -5     -10.48    11.67    -9.62    57.47     4.72    -1.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.09R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       34   39  -10      -5.63    25.70    -8.09    53.69     4.62   -12.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.91R    0.00  
Barnet             30   37   -9      -6.37    22.11   -12.79    60.30     5.60    -6.85     0.00     0.14     0.03P    1.50R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     35   36  -17      -9.02    15.25   -13.07    50.86     4.41   -17.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.94R    0.06  
Havant_&_Wville    35   35  -14      -3.04    37.33     2.44    46.81     4.41   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.99R    0.59  
Aldershot          34   32  -27      -7.30    19.33   -17.04    45.76     4.56   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.29R    1.65  
Maidstone_United   34   26  -29      -6.81    20.42    -8.65    37.69     4.34   -36.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.71R   33.96  
Braintree_Town     34   25  -26      -6.45    22.35    -2.69    34.94     4.21   -36.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.70R   63.72