Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 25 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 24 February 2019, Arsenal 2 0 Southampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        27   66  +44       9.08    91.53    10.44    91.01     3.84    60.67    40.27    95.98    99.88    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         27   65  +54       1.45    57.63     4.42    91.77     3.50    76.27    59.03    97.71    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        27   60  +28       4.94    75.64    -1.32    81.06     4.10    37.77     0.70     6.16    81.22    94.71   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          27   53  +18       4.52    73.26    -0.75    72.74     4.43    25.31     0.00     0.05     7.53    36.61    99.66     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          27   52  +17       1.37    56.99    -4.27    72.84     4.23    25.94     0.00     0.05     5.90    38.50    99.73     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.65    63.95    -2.04    72.04     4.49    24.66     0.00     0.06     5.52    30.18    99.53     0.00     0.00  
Watford          27   40   +4       5.45    77.08     8.85    53.18     4.11    -0.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    27   40   +1       6.27    80.17     7.36    54.57     4.32    -0.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.70     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham         27   36   -5       2.67    64.84     2.30    48.84     4.10   -10.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.03R    0.00  
Bournemouth      27   34  -10       2.42    63.63     1.55    47.36     4.26   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.75    30.78    -0.81    46.52     4.37    -5.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25R    0.00  
Leicester        27   32   -6      -2.63    36.49    -0.85    47.52     4.37    -6.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.07R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   30   -4      -3.63    31.55     2.27    43.68     4.22    -6.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.17R    0.00  
Burnley          27   30  -17      -0.67    47.17    -5.98    41.26     4.09   -23.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.35R    0.00  
Newcastle        27   28  -10      -3.82    29.80    -1.50    41.84     4.32   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.10R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.33    43.33     1.11    39.99     4.24   -17.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.91R    0.00  
Cardiff          27   25  -27       0.83    56.22    -4.02    33.84     3.87   -38.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.27R    0.09  
Southampton      27   24  -18      -5.52    21.85    -4.56    37.07     4.19   -21.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.80R    0.01  
Fulham           27   17  -35      -5.81    19.55    -6.00    25.74     3.91   -47.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.97R    9.95  
Huddersfield     27   11  -36      -8.50     7.00    -6.23    18.63     3.57   -48.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   89.95  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 February 2019, Birmingham 2 2 Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         34   66  +24      11.05    89.24    11.49    86.24     4.75    29.94    40.03    65.77    99.69    73.29P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       34   64  +25       8.49    83.16    11.71    84.13     4.70    30.59    23.60    48.50    98.87    60.89P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    33   64  +18      12.91    93.28     9.35    83.80     5.01    20.82    19.89    41.31    98.01    52.53P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       34   60  +24      -0.96    45.36     1.99    81.86     4.65    32.50    12.27    30.31    96.80    52.15P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   33   57  +14       2.86    63.15     1.23    78.93     4.85    19.82     3.56    11.34    88.61    33.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    32   53   +9       5.53    74.26     3.76    72.92     5.08    10.09     0.37     1.48    45.02    10.00P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           32   51   +6       1.42    56.49    -2.34    73.12     5.10    10.32     0.27     1.24    47.32    12.04P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      33   47   +9       4.46    70.47    13.21    63.42     4.86     6.73     0.00     0.00     2.86     0.48P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   47   +8       2.03    59.64     8.67    65.61     4.97     9.19     0.00     0.02     6.75     1.19P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         34   47   +5      -2.97    36.85     0.15    64.05     4.69     5.80     0.00     0.00     3.11     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     34   45   +4      -7.43    19.95    -4.60    63.81     4.79     7.47     0.00     0.00     3.03     0.71P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         33   44   +1      -5.07    28.64    -4.68    63.73     4.92     3.76     0.00     0.01     3.02     0.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull            33   44   -1      -1.58    43.15    -1.01    61.87     4.89    -1.23     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       34   44   -7       0.42    52.42    -1.95    59.95     4.72    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       33   44   -9       0.97    55.01    -5.50    60.51     4.86   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Brentford       32   43  +11      -6.91    21.25     2.12    64.27     5.17    14.13     0.00     0.01     4.72     1.18P    0.00     0.00  
Stoke           34   41   -7      -6.28    24.21    -8.03    57.76     4.67    -6.39     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.06R    0.00  
QPR             33   39  -11       0.07    50.88    -0.61    55.15     4.85   -13.99     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.35R    0.00  
Wigan           33   35  -14      -6.77    21.84    -9.03    51.09     4.86   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.67R    0.01  
Millwall        33   34  -12      -6.81    21.01    -5.45    49.11     4.79   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.01R    0.05  
Reading         34   30  -15      -8.46    15.88    -2.25    42.60     4.49   -20.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.66R    2.13  
Rotherham       34   30  -20      -4.20    31.73    -0.01    40.66     4.31   -29.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.90R    4.58  
Bolton          34   26  -31      -3.19    34.85    -4.80    36.59     4.17   -39.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.17R   28.33  
Ipswich         34   21  -31     -13.91     3.72   -13.43    33.04     4.37   -37.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.15R   64.90  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 24 February 2019, Luton 1 1 Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                34   72  +38      10.16    87.44    14.97    95.02     4.64    48.09    72.53    92.65   100.00    95.17P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             34   67  +31       3.86    66.40     6.26    88.95     4.67    38.98    13.59    52.65    99.95    70.16P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           33   65  +27       4.30    68.40     3.58    88.70     4.97    35.95    13.14    47.91    99.86    66.08P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           34   62  +19       8.92    84.43     9.58    81.39     4.70    23.35     0.56     4.73    96.36    24.68P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             34   59  +16       5.08    72.07     5.35    78.52     4.76    20.50     0.13     1.30    89.83    21.64P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            32   54  +19       3.90    67.30     9.72    75.46     5.16    22.23     0.06     0.76    75.08    15.47P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         34   52   +6       1.78    58.17     0.92    70.25     4.77     8.62     0.00     0.00    24.55     4.35P    0.00     0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       34   48   +9      -1.43    43.83     4.83    65.56     4.74    10.69     0.00     0.00     6.17     1.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackpool            33   48   +5       1.39    56.83     2.55    65.70     4.87     5.02     0.00     0.00     6.74     1.12P    0.02R    0.00  
Coventry             34   47   -1       4.23    69.10     3.86    61.16     4.56    -4.16     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.09P    0.32R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        34   43   +1      -5.00    29.12    -1.20    58.24     4.67    -0.71     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    1.77R    0.01  
Wycombe              34   43   -6       2.89    63.72     4.14    57.47     4.74    -9.03     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    3.70R    0.06  
Southend             34   41   -1      -5.46    27.05    -0.60    57.39     4.74    -1.12     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    3.36R    0.06  
Plymouth             34   41   -9      -1.91    42.01    -3.04    54.46     4.58   -13.75     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    11.64R    0.24  
Accrington_Stanley   32   41   -9       3.69    67.70     0.47    57.15     4.98   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P    5.32R    0.13  
Scunthorpe           34   41  -17      -3.12    36.78   -12.71    57.58     4.77   -16.87     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    4.67R    0.10  
Gillingham           34   39  -12      -1.88    42.17    -2.68    54.03     4.71   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    15.11R    0.71  
Walsall              34   38  -18      -0.99    46.23    -6.27    50.70     4.53   -23.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.43R    2.54  
Shrewsbury           33   36   -9      -7.00    20.83    -6.06    54.22     4.93    -8.34     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   14.07R    0.73  
Oxford_Utd           34   36  -11      -6.36    23.71    -4.23    52.09     4.76   -11.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.33R    1.86  
Bristol_Rovers       33   34   -6      -7.80    17.89    -1.09    50.18     4.82    -8.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.32R    4.01  
Rochdale             34   34  -30      -2.03    41.59   -12.08    46.36     4.53   -37.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.16R   17.60  
Bradford             34   33  -17      -8.00    17.53    -8.31    47.15     4.60   -20.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.79R   12.30  
AFC_Wimbledon        34   29  -25      -5.77    24.52    -7.95    41.79     4.50   -30.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.99R   59.65  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 February 2019, Bury 3 1 Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     33   65  +26       9.26    85.96    10.52    86.41     4.86    31.42    45.04    88.01    99.86    91.24P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             34   63  +26       2.97    62.49     5.31    85.08     4.72    34.73    35.13    85.94    99.80    90.30P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        34   61  +23       3.51    65.43     7.35    80.97     4.61    28.10     9.73    54.29    98.52    67.72P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          34   59  +21      -0.68    46.62     1.57    80.61     4.70    28.60     9.01    51.88    97.89    67.39P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       34   54  +17      -0.55    47.30     5.29    72.04     4.69    19.29     0.21     4.25    61.34    18.69P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     34   54  +17       5.84    74.66    14.88    71.04     4.70    17.94     0.10     2.78    52.07    11.58P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           33   54  +12       1.93    58.82     1.97    74.27     4.95    15.56     0.60     8.76    74.60    25.42P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         34   53  +11       0.80    53.58     2.84    71.96     4.80    14.70     0.17     3.45    58.60    16.21P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         34   52   +7       4.54    69.75     5.83    66.91     4.72     4.65     0.01     0.34    18.72     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        34   48   -5       3.15    64.62    -2.34    63.23     4.61    -6.82     0.00     0.03     4.37     0.73P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          34   47   -2       5.08    72.93     4.45    61.91     4.61    -4.11     0.00     0.00     2.78     0.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          33   47   -3       0.46    52.28    -4.95    65.90     4.92    -1.57     0.00     0.15    13.28     2.72P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           34   46   +8      -8.35    17.88    -3.45    64.51     4.79    10.99     0.00     0.08    10.18     2.84P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            34   46   -4       2.65    62.58     1.19    62.59     4.70    -3.73     0.00     0.02     3.44     0.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   33   46   -9       5.63    75.31    -1.23    62.24     4.95   -11.49     0.00     0.02     3.78     0.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton      34   42   -3      -5.86    26.09    -4.69    59.39     4.75    -1.72     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.16P    0.04R    0.00  
Cheltenham       34   41  -10      -1.04    46.06    -2.65    54.99     4.60   -13.82     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.53R    0.08  
Crawley_Town     34   39  -10      -2.26    40.02    -1.98    53.05     4.54   -13.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.52R    0.25  
Cambridge_Utd    34   36  -24      -2.49    39.40   -12.31    49.36     4.47   -28.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.91R    2.65  
Morecambe        34   35  -18      -1.60    43.22    -3.11    49.28     4.55   -21.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.91R    2.74  
Yeovil           34   33  -13      -5.99    24.17    -1.87    47.07     4.49   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.99R    5.69  
Port_Vale        34   33  -14      -7.41    18.84    -5.78    46.94     4.45   -17.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.27R    6.38  
Macclesfield     34   30  -21      -2.39    39.57     0.88    41.45     4.31   -28.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.11R   39.90  
Notts_County     34   28  -32      -9.85    11.96   -17.70    41.64     4.58   -36.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.70R   42.32  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 23 February 2019, Barrow 0 0 Ebbsfleet_United; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            35   66  +19      11.21    90.04     9.01    83.37     4.33    22.40    23.65    91.70    40.93P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   64  +23      12.92    92.93    16.29    83.05     4.67    26.89    24.11    89.76    37.92P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      33   61  +29       3.55    65.95    11.22    83.25     4.84    35.52    30.75    90.45    49.90P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          34   60  +28       0.95    54.09     9.41    81.15     4.67    34.96    15.41    82.86    36.70P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          34   58   +2      12.31    91.89     3.13    74.32     4.64     1.82     0.69    23.03     4.21P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       34   57  +20       5.09    71.17    11.98    75.13     4.86    22.47     1.47    35.07     8.98P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     33   56  +18       6.34    75.52    11.44    76.44     5.09    22.10     3.19    45.81    11.74P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          35   56  +11       3.11    63.61     3.47    71.89     4.48    12.26     0.12    12.22     2.90P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      34   56   +6       6.89    78.48     2.04    74.13     4.66     8.67     0.59    23.26     5.32P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   35   52  +13      -0.72    47.01     5.78    69.48     4.48    16.53     0.02     4.84     1.16P    0.00     0.00  
Bromley            34   47   +1      -1.42    43.85    -1.76    63.59     4.74     1.14     0.00     0.33     0.05P    0.04R    0.00  
Barrow             34   46   -1       1.59    57.88     1.37    61.28     4.58    -2.30     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.17R    0.00  
Hartlepool         35   44   -5      -2.22    40.23    -2.92    57.65     4.37    -6.89     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.13R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          34   42   -3      -5.97    25.08    -5.37    58.97     4.74    -2.26     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.91R    0.00  
Halifax            34   40   -5      -0.83    47.12     1.57    53.19     4.36    -8.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.56R    0.01  
Maidenhead         34   40  -19       1.74    58.79    -6.42    52.82     4.54   -24.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.73R    0.01  
Boreham_Wood       34   39  -10      -5.71    25.47    -8.18    53.71     4.60   -12.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.59R    0.00  
Barnet             29   37   -7      -5.85    23.66   -11.92    62.33     5.84    -3.91     0.00     0.60     0.16P    0.68R    0.00  
Chesterfield       33   36   -7     -11.30     9.62   -10.44    55.38     4.95    -4.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.75R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     35   36  -17      -9.13    14.69   -13.13    50.95     4.42   -17.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.27R    0.06  
Havant_&_Wville    35   35  -14      -3.34    36.35     1.94    46.92     4.46   -19.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.44R    0.59  
Aldershot          34   32  -27      -7.47    18.90   -17.30    45.75     4.54   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.23R    1.77  
Maidstone_United   34   26  -29      -6.89    19.81    -8.71    37.73     4.31   -36.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.79R   33.39  
Braintree_Town     34   25  -26      -6.27    22.90    -2.49    34.93     4.22   -36.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.71R   64.17