Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 24 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.29    56.62     4.11    91.77     3.49    76.17    54.06    94.75    99.90    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.46    93.01    10.23    91.51     4.13    61.01    43.57    92.00    99.80    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.52    82.64    -0.14    83.44     4.27    40.41     2.37    13.08    89.82    97.75   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.58    58.09    -4.51    73.17     4.51    25.93     0.00     0.09     4.04    41.68    99.68     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.68    69.56    -1.36    72.07     4.62    24.93     0.00     0.02     3.53    31.39    99.34     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.68    64.28    -1.94    72.02     4.47    24.59     0.00     0.05     2.91    29.18    99.45     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.53    81.45     7.32    54.80     4.58    -0.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.25     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.38    77.58     7.22    51.10     4.32    -5.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.66    31.15    -0.52    46.46     4.35    -5.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       2.03    61.64     1.95    47.68     4.32   -11.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.81    66.01     1.70    47.85     4.53   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.17R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.86    40.19     1.05    49.69     4.59    -1.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.56    26.38     0.39    41.31     4.41   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.03R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.33    43.29     1.17    39.95     4.25   -17.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.02R    0.00  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.47    36.80    -7.20    38.68     4.22   -26.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.87R    0.01  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.49    26.10    -1.97    40.62     4.53   -13.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.11R    0.01  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       1.17    58.23    -2.13    35.48     4.17   -33.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.27R    0.11  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.25    22.99    -4.31    37.80     4.38   -20.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.61R    0.04  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.34    21.27    -5.64    26.69     4.15   -45.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.60R   10.92  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -7.94     8.38    -5.41    19.45     3.77   -46.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   88.92  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 February 2019, Derby 0 1 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         33   63  +23      10.14    87.79    11.55    84.74     4.96    29.07    31.32    57.35    98.81    66.97P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   61  +24       6.86    78.41    10.67    81.98     4.93    28.79    15.97    34.97    96.41    50.38P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   61  +17      12.00    92.13     9.35    83.15     5.21    21.27    20.44    41.11    96.85    52.81P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       33   60  +25       0.21    50.42     2.56    83.79     4.93    34.38    27.87    51.81    98.05    67.06P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   54  +12       2.24    60.34     0.65    77.78     5.02    18.50     3.07     9.85    82.03    30.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   53  +10       6.58    78.36     4.25    73.94     5.31    10.53     0.97     3.24    52.51    13.20P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           32   51   +6       1.42    56.67    -2.32    73.09     5.09    10.29     0.35     1.57    46.03    12.21P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   47   +8       2.10    59.99     8.74    65.62     4.95     9.18     0.00     0.03     6.67     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   46   +9       4.86    72.25    13.18    64.00     5.10     7.07     0.00     0.02     4.17     0.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     33   44   +4      -7.10    20.86    -4.62    64.09     5.00     7.35     0.00     0.00     3.99     1.00P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   44   +3      -3.88    33.17    -0.70    62.25     4.89     3.53     0.00     0.00     1.46     0.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull            32   44   +3      -1.79    42.24     0.44    63.41     5.11     3.01     0.00     0.01     3.06     0.65P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         32   44   +3      -4.48    30.42    -3.83    65.41     5.18     6.23     0.00     0.02     6.39     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   43   -7       0.58    53.38    -2.30    60.05     4.93    -8.35     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   41  -11      -0.01    50.53    -6.57    58.65     5.07   -13.37     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    0.06R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   +7      -6.59    21.77     1.13    62.37     5.42     9.68     0.00     0.01     2.68     0.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           33   40   -7      -5.91    25.10    -7.99    58.24     4.91    -6.20     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.09R    0.00  
QPR             32   39   -9       0.66    53.84     0.21    55.94     4.99   -12.76     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.31R    0.00  
Millwall        32   34  -10      -6.24    22.80    -4.76    50.77     5.04   -13.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.42R    0.03  
Wigan           32   34  -14      -6.21    23.51    -8.79    51.98     5.08   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.62R    0.04  
Reading         33   29  -15      -7.72    17.70    -1.68    43.34     4.71   -20.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.60R    2.04  
Rotherham       33   29  -20      -4.14    31.63    -0.49    40.65     4.52   -30.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.54R    5.53  
Bolton          33   26  -30      -2.62    37.71    -5.22    37.25     4.32   -39.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.58R   23.98  
Ipswich         33   20  -31     -13.61     3.75   -13.45    32.81     4.53   -38.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.75R   68.37  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, Accrington_Stanley 4 2 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                33   71  +38      10.69    89.16    15.14    96.13     4.83    49.17    77.27    94.78   100.00    96.48P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             33   66  +31       4.18    68.04     6.05    89.62     4.90    39.45    14.55    60.62    99.92    74.74P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           32   62  +25       3.42    65.08     2.70    87.35     5.17    34.30     7.37    36.33    99.48    58.46P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   61  +19       9.48    86.10     9.85    81.42     4.93    22.86     0.60     6.03    94.56    24.76P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             33   56  +15       4.01    67.91     5.17    77.24     4.94    20.00     0.07     0.86    80.28    19.62P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   53  +19       4.12    68.35     9.52    76.13     5.41    22.67     0.14     1.29    73.31    16.04P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   52   +7       2.84    62.73     1.42    72.11     5.02    10.38     0.00     0.08    36.45     7.00P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            32   48   +6       2.52    62.06     3.38    67.44     5.08     6.56     0.00     0.00    10.83     1.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry             33   46   -1       4.35    69.71     3.41    60.77     4.71    -5.32     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.09P    0.32R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       33   45   +8      -2.67    38.16     4.47    63.80     4.93     9.47     0.00     0.00     3.08     0.57P    0.08R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   43   +2      -4.10    32.42    -0.76    59.82     4.89     0.61     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.14P    0.71R    0.00  
Wycombe              33   43   -5       4.17    69.35     5.11    59.01     4.95    -7.79     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.03P    1.78R    0.03  
Southend             33   40   -1      -4.99    28.34    -0.38    57.80     4.95    -1.11     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P    2.80R    0.07  
Accrington_Stanley   31   40   -9       4.00    69.06     0.43    57.45     5.24   -13.65     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    4.63R    0.18  
Scunthorpe           33   40  -17      -2.83    37.73   -12.77    57.83     4.99   -17.09     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    4.09R    0.15  
Plymouth             33   38  -13      -2.04    41.40    -4.83    52.66     4.78   -17.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   21.03R    1.35  
Gillingham           33   36  -13      -3.28    35.92    -3.16    52.15     4.89   -15.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.13R    2.40  
Walsall              33   35  -19      -2.20    40.61    -6.71    48.96     4.70   -24.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.56R    7.77  
Bristol_Rovers       32   34   -4      -7.42    18.86    -0.51    51.36     5.05    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.20R    3.21  
Rochdale             33   34  -26      -2.23    40.49   -10.84    48.02     4.78   -32.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.72R   12.57  
Shrewsbury           32   33  -10      -8.42    15.36    -6.69    52.21     5.13    -9.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   23.11R    2.57  
Oxford_Utd           33   33  -12      -7.87    18.02    -4.91    50.00     4.94   -13.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.12R    5.89  
Bradford             33   33  -16      -6.71    21.46    -7.46    48.50     4.87   -19.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.11R    9.87  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   29  -24      -4.92    27.61    -7.64    42.72     4.68   -29.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.61R   53.92  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, Cheltenham 2 0 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     32   62  +24       8.15    83.16     9.27    85.06     5.10    29.85    43.80    84.88    99.54    88.73P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             33   60  +24       2.15    59.31     4.50    83.70     4.95    33.06    33.16    82.28    99.21    87.58P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        33   58  +22       2.43    60.99     7.06    79.80     4.84    27.75    10.65    52.04    96.34    65.49P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   56  +19      -1.03    45.09     1.44    79.48     4.92    27.33     9.98    49.97    95.48    64.96P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   54  +18       6.56    77.47    14.98    72.06     4.91    18.43     0.54     6.89    58.63    16.50P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   53  +17      -0.07    49.55     5.45    72.69     4.91    19.67     0.75     8.61    63.83    22.49P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         33   52  +11       1.03    55.05     2.57    72.03     4.99    14.29     0.42     5.85    56.71    17.70P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           32   51  +11       0.59    52.84     1.39    72.66     5.18    14.57     0.66     7.65    61.06    20.89P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   49   +6       3.54    65.79     5.86    65.66     4.95     4.22     0.01     0.40    13.35     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        33   48   -4       4.20    69.04    -1.80    64.91     4.87    -5.35     0.01     0.24     8.83     1.75P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           33   46  +10      -7.69    19.17    -2.61    65.66     5.00    12.66     0.02     0.44    15.14     4.52P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   46   -2       5.33    74.09     4.26    61.85     4.80    -4.74     0.00     0.02     2.80     0.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            33   46   -3       3.69    67.22     1.73    63.95     4.91    -2.72     0.00     0.11     6.55     1.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          32   46   -3       1.02    54.98    -4.70    66.60     5.16    -1.09     0.01     0.48    16.83     3.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   32   46   -7       5.87    76.03    -0.99    63.16     5.11   -10.24     0.00     0.14     5.32     0.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton      33   39   -4      -6.98    21.79    -4.92    57.49     4.94    -3.13     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.08P    0.24R    0.02  
Crawley_Town     33   38  -10      -1.47    43.89    -1.32    53.91     4.77   -12.83     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.54R    0.32  
Cheltenham       33   38  -11      -2.33    39.80    -3.12    53.45     4.84   -14.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.85R    0.32  
Cambridge_Utd    33   36  -23      -1.53    43.43   -11.81    50.58     4.69   -27.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.36R    1.88  
Morecambe        33   35  -16      -1.28    44.69    -2.67    50.54     4.82   -19.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.52R    1.97  
Port_Vale        33   33  -13      -6.64    21.64    -5.55    48.23     4.69   -16.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.89R    4.49  
Yeovil           33   30  -14      -7.33    19.02    -2.33    45.57     4.71   -17.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.42R   11.64  
Macclesfield     33   29  -21      -2.15    40.64     0.75    41.26     4.53   -29.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.33R   44.88  
Notts_County     33   28  -31      -9.03    13.75   -17.43    42.61     4.81   -36.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.82R   34.50  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, AFC_Fylde 6 2 Havant_&_Wville; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            34   65  +19      11.74    91.48     9.20    83.65     4.56    22.34    25.12    90.67    41.03P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   64  +23      12.86    92.86    16.13    82.98     4.69    26.85    22.71    88.90    36.19P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      33   61  +29       3.55    65.66    11.17    83.37     4.86    35.69    29.85    90.28    48.85P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          34   60  +28       1.09    54.80     9.52    81.13     4.64    34.96    14.26    82.30    35.58P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       33   57  +22       5.48    72.83    12.44    77.46     5.09    25.92     4.49    52.87    15.76P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      33   56   +7       7.74    81.41     2.38    75.53     4.90     9.71     1.48    32.57     8.04P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          34   55  +11       3.43    65.36     3.41    72.29     4.68    12.34     0.23    13.59     3.22P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          33   55   +0      11.15    90.18     1.84    72.05     4.83    -1.17     0.20    11.89     1.92P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     32   53  +17       4.92    70.62    10.81    74.57     5.31    20.74     1.63    30.16     7.75P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   51  +13      -0.32    48.78     5.84    69.91     4.71    16.67     0.03     6.02     1.46P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             33   45   -1       1.81    58.79     1.27    61.60     4.82    -2.36     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.17R    0.00  
Bromley            33   44   +0      -2.70    38.05    -2.22    61.71     4.96    -0.27     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.19R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   44   -4      -1.22    45.11    -2.37    59.11     4.64    -5.76     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.55R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          33   39   -4      -7.37    19.67    -5.99    57.36     4.96    -3.23     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.23R    0.00  
Halifax            33   39   -5      -0.32    49.46     1.94    53.79     4.63    -8.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.21R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       34   39  -10      -5.70    25.22    -8.18    53.72     4.59   -12.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.05R    0.01  
Barnet             29   37   -7      -5.74    24.10   -11.82    62.25     5.78    -4.04     0.00     0.51     0.15P    0.65R    0.00  
Maidenhead         33   37  -20       0.51    53.26    -6.64    50.89     4.72   -26.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.37R    0.08  
Chesterfield       32   36   -6     -10.47    11.35   -10.19    57.10     5.18    -3.03     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.14R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     34   36  -16      -8.14    17.47   -12.65    52.55     4.67   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.47R    0.05  
Havant_&_Wville    34   34  -14      -3.07    37.16     2.15    47.10     4.70   -19.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.05R    0.88  
Aldershot          33   29  -28      -8.67    14.44   -17.56    44.09     4.77   -31.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.18R    5.95  
Maidstone_United   34   26  -29      -6.79    20.32    -8.54    37.71     4.31   -36.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.62R   39.17  
Braintree_Town     33   25  -25      -5.34    26.31    -1.95    36.28     4.46   -35.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.12R   53.86