Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 23 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.44    57.52     4.54    91.72     3.50    76.01    53.40    94.56    99.92    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.39    92.98    10.08    91.52     4.09    60.99    44.10    92.02    99.81    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.42    82.45    -0.25    83.46     4.26    40.40     2.49    13.27    89.99    97.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.64    58.75    -4.55    73.19     4.45    25.91     0.00     0.08     3.89    41.80    99.73     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.68    69.47    -1.37    72.08     4.62    24.95     0.00     0.03     3.52    31.34    99.44     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.77    64.70    -1.76    71.98     4.47    24.53     0.00     0.04     2.88    29.00    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.74    82.60     7.63    54.73     4.54    -0.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.08     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.37    77.25     7.26    51.13     4.33    -5.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.81    30.30    -0.86    46.52     4.39    -5.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.25R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       2.02    61.68     1.94    47.63     4.33   -11.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.12R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.85    66.32     1.85    47.85     4.52   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.17R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.81    40.52     1.11    49.62     4.60    -1.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.60    25.97     0.34    41.34     4.39   -10.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.02R    0.01  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.27    43.78     1.25    39.91     4.22   -17.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.06R    0.00  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.38    37.51    -7.06    38.62     4.22   -26.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.15R    0.01  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.67    25.35    -2.24    40.69     4.53   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.04R    0.00  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       1.01    57.25    -2.43    35.54     4.18   -33.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.68R    0.13  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.14    23.34    -4.11    37.75     4.38   -20.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.05R    0.06  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.43    21.08    -5.78    26.71     4.15   -45.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.45R   11.22  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -8.03     8.08    -5.59    19.56     3.81   -46.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   88.58  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 February 2019, Derby 0 1 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         33   63  +23      10.15    87.52    11.56    84.67     4.99    29.02    31.14    56.65    98.73    66.35P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   61  +24       6.80    78.22    10.58    82.09     4.92    28.90    16.25    35.82    96.49    50.86P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   61  +17      11.94    91.92     9.31    83.16     5.18    21.34    20.57    41.25    96.80    52.87P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       33   60  +25       0.36    51.07     2.73    83.72     4.91    34.27    27.47    51.35    98.10    66.61P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   54  +12       2.09    60.17     0.44    77.81     5.04    18.54     3.16     9.86    82.08    31.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   53  +10       6.46    78.09     4.04    74.02     5.32    10.66     1.07     3.44    52.75    13.32P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           32   51   +6       1.48    57.08    -2.28    73.10     5.09    10.31     0.33     1.51    46.02    12.11P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   47   +8       2.04    59.79     8.60    65.67     4.92     9.25     0.00     0.03     6.79     1.33P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   46   +9       5.00    72.79    13.47    63.94     5.12     6.97     0.00     0.02     4.17     0.62P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     33   44   +4      -7.00    20.99    -4.48    64.09     4.98     7.34     0.00     0.01     3.70     0.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         33   44   +3      -3.77    33.46    -0.58    62.17     4.92     3.44     0.00     0.00     1.43     0.32P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            32   44   +3      -1.78    41.88     0.48    63.36     5.11     2.92     0.00     0.01     3.07     0.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         32   44   +3      -4.42    30.62    -3.71    65.39     5.13     6.23     0.01     0.03     6.11     1.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       33   43   -7       0.69    53.83    -2.14    60.10     4.97    -8.34     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   41  -11      -0.01    50.76    -6.56    58.63     5.10   -13.40     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    0.04R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   +7      -6.96    20.58     0.61    62.49     5.40     9.84     0.00     0.01     2.79     0.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Stoke           33   40   -7      -5.81    25.51    -7.86    58.18     4.93    -6.29     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P    0.06R    0.00  
QPR             32   39   -9       0.64    53.55     0.11    55.93     4.98   -12.79     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.31R    0.00  
Millwall        32   34  -10      -6.26    22.72    -4.75    50.78     5.04   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.37R    0.03  
Wigan           32   34  -14      -6.18    23.58    -8.70    51.95     5.08   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.73R    0.04  
Reading         33   29  -15      -7.89    17.22    -1.91    43.36     4.70   -20.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.52R    1.85  
Rotherham       33   29  -20      -4.16    31.24    -0.57    40.71     4.53   -30.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.35R    5.51  
Bolton          33   26  -30      -2.66    37.43    -5.20    37.22     4.32   -39.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.84R   24.19  
Ipswich         33   20  -31     -13.44     3.96   -13.17    32.78     4.52   -38.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.75R   68.38  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, Accrington_Stanley 4 2 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                33   71  +38      10.71    89.44    15.20    96.13     4.84    49.19    77.17    94.70   100.00    96.46P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             33   66  +31       4.16    68.19     5.99    89.62     4.92    39.47    14.74    60.45    99.90    74.55P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           32   62  +25       3.70    65.90     3.14    87.27     5.17    34.19     7.29    36.15    99.45    57.87P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   61  +19       9.05    85.02     9.23    81.57     4.95    23.07     0.63     6.53    94.78    25.68P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             33   56  +15       4.05    68.02     5.26    77.17     4.96    19.89     0.06     0.93    79.96    19.44P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   53  +19       4.25    69.19     9.75    76.05     5.36    22.55     0.11     1.18    73.19    16.33P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   52   +7       2.90    62.91     1.56    72.07     5.01    10.28     0.00     0.05    36.09     6.60P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            32   48   +6       2.50    61.99     3.25    67.51     5.08     6.59     0.00     0.00    11.24     2.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             33   46   -1       4.07    68.55     3.06    60.83     4.72    -5.21     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.12P    0.37R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       33   45   +8      -2.83    37.57     4.26    63.84     4.95     9.53     0.00     0.00     3.33     0.63P    0.07R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   43   +2      -4.00    32.83    -0.62    59.77     4.90     0.51     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.10P    0.75R    0.00  
Wycombe              33   43   -5       3.97    68.18     4.76    59.14     4.94    -7.62     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.03P    1.68R    0.04  
Southend             33   40   -1      -5.00    28.36    -0.45    57.84     4.98    -1.01     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    2.72R    0.10  
Accrington_Stanley   31   40   -9       4.05    69.31     0.55    57.37     5.22   -13.75     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    4.87R    0.16  
Scunthorpe           33   40  -17      -2.70    38.53   -12.59    57.78     4.99   -17.14     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    4.22R    0.15  
Plymouth             33   38  -13      -1.97    41.49    -4.73    52.67     4.80   -17.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.94R    1.37  
Gillingham           33   36  -13      -3.33    35.43    -3.24    52.18     4.90   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    23.97R    2.39  
Walsall              33   35  -19      -2.12    40.66    -6.57    48.93     4.71   -25.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.01R    7.88  
Bristol_Rovers       32   34   -4      -7.25    19.58    -0.30    51.33     5.01    -6.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.84R    3.17  
Rochdale             33   34  -26      -2.24    40.54   -10.80    47.93     4.79   -32.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.66R   12.99  
Shrewsbury           32   33  -10      -8.30    16.22    -6.50    52.17     5.16   -10.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.55R    2.65  
Oxford_Utd           33   33  -12      -7.75    18.23    -4.69    50.04     4.94   -13.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.69R    5.62  
Bradford             33   33  -16      -6.93    20.77    -7.84    48.60     4.87   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.07R    9.52  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   29  -24      -4.85    27.94    -7.67    42.69     4.68   -29.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.58R   53.95  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, Cheltenham 2 0 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     32   62  +24       8.25    83.38     9.40    85.04     5.14    29.78    44.15    84.78    99.48    88.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             33   60  +24       2.53    61.07     5.17    83.52     4.97    32.75    32.32    81.06    99.15    86.50P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        33   58  +22       2.56    61.39     7.26    79.70     4.83    27.65    10.65    51.53    96.30    64.94P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   56  +19      -1.23    44.01     1.14    79.55     4.90    27.49    10.33    51.03    95.62    65.75P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   54  +18       6.45    77.27    14.80    72.07     4.92    18.42     0.52     6.91    58.54    16.29P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   53  +17      -0.30    48.42     5.06    72.74     4.96    19.80     0.80     9.06    64.04    23.58P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         33   52  +11       1.08    55.10     2.66    72.04     5.02    14.29     0.46     6.03    56.79    17.63P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           32   51  +11       0.62    53.07     1.44    72.60     5.18    14.53     0.73     7.92    60.65    21.04P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   49   +6       3.49    65.72     5.73    65.64     4.91     4.16     0.01     0.37    12.90     2.62P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        33   48   -4       4.21    69.20    -1.77    64.90     4.84    -5.36     0.00     0.19     8.86     1.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           33   46  +10      -7.90    18.52    -2.92    65.77     5.01    12.81     0.01     0.42    15.55     4.82P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   46   -2       5.27    73.87     4.18    61.85     4.78    -4.69     0.00     0.01     2.79     0.42P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            33   46   -3       3.58    66.71     1.48    64.05     4.91    -2.58     0.00     0.11     6.81     1.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          32   46   -3       1.02    55.15    -4.67    66.59     5.13    -1.10     0.02     0.50    16.70     3.79P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   32   46   -7       5.68    75.37    -1.25    63.21     5.09   -10.16     0.00     0.09     5.41     0.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton      33   39   -4      -6.89    21.85    -4.85    57.44     4.98    -3.20     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P    0.26R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     33   38  -10      -1.34    44.54    -1.14    53.88     4.77   -12.90     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.65R    0.31  
Cheltenham       33   38  -11      -2.14    40.69    -2.83    53.42     4.84   -14.76     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    2.00R    0.33  
Cambridge_Utd    33   36  -23      -1.68    42.72   -12.00    50.60     4.71   -27.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.62R    1.98  
Morecambe        33   35  -16      -1.13    45.78    -2.45    50.48     4.79   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.74R    2.14  
Port_Vale        33   33  -13      -6.57    21.66    -5.40    48.26     4.67   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.89R    4.60  
Yeovil           33   30  -14      -7.19    19.57    -2.16    45.50     4.75   -17.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.92R   12.30  
Macclesfield     33   29  -21      -2.44    39.32     0.30    41.36     4.52   -29.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.37R   44.04  
Notts_County     33   28  -31      -8.89    14.25   -17.19    42.64     4.80   -36.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.52R   34.26  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, AFC_Fylde 6 2 Havant_&_Wville; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            34   65  +19      11.58    91.18     9.07    83.69     4.54    22.39    25.39    91.02    41.82P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   64  +23      12.91    92.77    16.23    82.95     4.69    26.78    22.65    88.73    36.27P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      33   61  +29       3.71    66.38    11.38    83.30     4.89    35.63    29.60    89.44    48.18P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          34   60  +28       1.09    54.59     9.53    81.09     4.66    34.87    14.46    81.85    35.48P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       33   57  +22       5.51    72.87    12.47    77.44     5.09    25.89     4.30    52.74    15.45P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      33   56   +7       7.87    82.09     2.57    75.51     4.87     9.69     1.43    32.40     7.81P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          34   55  +11       3.33    64.96     3.31    72.31     4.70    12.36     0.22    14.09     3.45P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          33   55   +0      11.09    89.77     1.73    72.12     4.84    -1.10     0.24    12.26     2.15P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     32   53  +17       4.96    70.62    10.86    74.58     5.31    20.73     1.65    30.49     7.62P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   51  +13      -0.27    48.84     5.84    69.93     4.71    16.67     0.05     6.24     1.57P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             33   45   -1       1.79    58.91     1.20    61.64     4.82    -2.32     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.16R    0.00  
Bromley            33   44   +0      -2.73    37.84    -2.29    61.78     4.97    -0.17     0.00     0.15     0.04P    0.16R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   44   -4      -1.21    44.85    -2.37    59.14     4.63    -5.73     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.51R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          33   39   -4      -7.41    19.36    -6.04    57.34     4.98    -3.26     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.27R    0.00  
Halifax            33   39   -5      -0.42    48.64     1.79    53.84     4.62    -8.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.86R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       34   39  -10      -5.68    25.55    -8.13    53.72     4.60   -12.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.30R    0.01  
Barnet             29   37   -7      -5.65    24.23   -11.67    62.20     5.79    -4.10     0.00     0.45     0.13P    0.61R    0.00  
Maidenhead         33   37  -20       0.38    52.67    -6.84    50.94     4.73   -26.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.07R    0.09  
Chesterfield       32   36   -6     -10.34    11.31   -10.01    57.06     5.22    -3.09     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.28R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     34   36  -16      -8.18    17.75   -12.69    52.56     4.68   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.32R    0.04  
Havant_&_Wville    34   34  -14      -2.93    37.77     2.34    47.07     4.69   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.67R    0.96  
Aldershot          33   29  -28      -8.69    14.86   -17.53    44.07     4.78   -31.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.13R    6.16  
Maidstone_United   34   26  -29      -6.88    20.02    -8.63    37.70     4.35   -36.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.65R   39.00  
Braintree_Town     33   25  -25      -5.47    25.68    -2.11    36.30     4.50   -35.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.02R   53.74