Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 22 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.43    57.64     4.44    91.75     3.50    76.07    53.65    94.79    99.91    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.55    93.22    10.45    91.52     4.08    60.94    43.90    92.11    99.79    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.46    82.61    -0.21    83.45     4.27    40.41     2.45    12.92    89.97    97.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.60    58.41    -4.49    73.17     4.49    25.91     0.00     0.10     4.00    41.60    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.74    69.46    -1.30    72.06     4.63    24.91     0.00     0.04     3.47    31.24    99.43     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.66    63.86    -1.95    71.98     4.48    24.55     0.00     0.04     2.85    29.29    99.43     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.55    81.46     7.31    54.83     4.57    -0.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.25    76.91     7.03    51.18     4.33    -5.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.81    30.31    -0.79    46.51     4.38    -5.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       1.94    61.18     1.77    47.69     4.35   -11.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.87    66.06     1.89    47.83     4.52   -13.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.17R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.85    40.46     1.04    49.68     4.60    -1.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.47    26.95     0.48    41.30     4.42   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.91R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.26    43.75     1.22    39.92     4.22   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.91R    0.01  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.32    37.49    -7.06    38.62     4.22   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.05R    0.01  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.62    25.49    -2.17    40.65     4.55   -13.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.21R    0.01  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       1.05    57.42    -2.39    35.51     4.17   -33.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.79R    0.14  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.23    22.85    -4.26    37.74     4.39   -20.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.97R    0.05  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.31    21.32    -5.53    26.64     4.14   -45.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.61R   11.49  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -7.99     8.13    -5.47    19.51     3.81   -46.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.94R   88.29  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 February 2019, Derby 0 1 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         33   63  +23      10.20    87.81    11.67    84.74     4.95    29.10    31.16    57.32    98.80    66.97P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   61  +24       6.92    78.59    10.75    82.01     4.91    28.81    15.55    34.68    96.41    49.99P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   61  +17      11.93    91.88     9.28    83.17     5.17    21.33    20.47    40.77    96.97    52.50P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       33   60  +25      -0.06    49.08     2.13    83.87     4.90    34.55    28.44    52.40    98.13    67.61P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   54  +12       2.23    60.48     0.66    77.78     5.05    18.53     3.07     9.80    81.93    31.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   53  +10       6.64    78.81     4.30    73.93     5.34    10.52     0.93     3.33    52.28    13.12P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           32   51   +6       1.19    55.44    -2.70    73.14     5.11    10.39     0.36     1.59    46.70    12.58P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   47   +8       2.15    59.99     8.79    65.57     4.93     9.12     0.01     0.02     6.44     1.24P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   46   +9       5.06    73.01    13.49    63.89     5.11     6.90     0.00     0.02     4.01     0.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     33   44   +4      -7.02    20.98    -4.51    64.06     5.00     7.32     0.00     0.01     3.88     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         33   44   +3      -3.76    33.47    -0.53    62.16     4.93     3.39     0.00     0.00     1.55     0.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull            32   44   +3      -1.61    42.87     0.68    63.35     5.10     2.90     0.00     0.01     2.83     0.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         32   44   +3      -4.50    30.50    -3.87    65.39     5.16     6.23     0.00     0.04     6.36     1.59P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   43   -7       0.56    53.15    -2.35    60.14     4.94    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   41  -11       0.00    50.66    -6.52    58.62     5.09   -13.43     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    0.05R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   +7      -6.87    20.68     0.75    62.49     5.40     9.80     0.00     0.01     2.76     0.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Stoke           33   40   -7      -5.76    25.62    -7.82    58.15     4.93    -6.33     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    0.09R    0.00  
QPR             32   39   -9       0.51    53.17     0.04    56.00     5.04   -12.69     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.37R    0.00  
Millwall        32   34  -10      -6.30    22.49    -4.81    50.79     5.04   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.44R    0.02  
Wigan           32   34  -14      -6.19    23.34    -8.71    51.92     5.06   -15.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.64R    0.03  
Reading         33   29  -15      -7.85    17.09    -1.88    43.42     4.71   -20.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.94R    1.97  
Rotherham       33   29  -20      -4.04    32.06    -0.36    40.65     4.51   -30.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.94R    5.76  
Bolton          33   26  -30      -2.58    37.68    -5.21    37.25     4.32   -39.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.67R   24.25  
Ipswich         33   20  -31     -13.56     3.98   -13.27    32.84     4.52   -38.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.81R   67.97  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, Accrington_Stanley 4 2 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                33   71  +38      10.83    89.35    15.40    96.07     4.83    49.11    76.69    94.64   100.00    96.43P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             33   66  +31       4.20    68.48     6.06    89.63     4.92    39.49    14.93    60.15    99.91    74.68P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           32   62  +25       3.48    65.27     2.74    87.36     5.15    34.35     7.56    36.62    99.45    58.78P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   61  +19       9.23    85.60     9.47    81.48     4.97    22.92     0.63     6.40    94.56    25.41P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             33   56  +15       3.98    67.59     5.18    77.21     4.98    19.96     0.07     0.88    79.94    19.16P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   53  +19       4.36    69.35     9.91    76.03     5.43    22.53     0.13     1.24    72.58    15.74P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   52   +7       2.82    62.48     1.42    72.18     5.03    10.46     0.00     0.07    37.02     6.76P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            32   48   +6       2.60    62.24     3.39    67.50     5.08     6.58     0.00     0.00    11.29     2.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             33   46   -1       4.08    68.54     3.08    60.86     4.75    -5.21     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.10P    0.40R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       33   45   +8      -2.63    38.42     4.56    63.71     4.93     9.35     0.00     0.00     3.02     0.60P    0.08R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   43   +2      -3.99    32.88    -0.57    59.75     4.91     0.45     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.09P    0.79R    0.01  
Wycombe              33   43   -5       4.02    68.46     4.81    59.12     4.95    -7.65     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.05P    1.71R    0.03  
Southend             33   40   -1      -4.79    29.46    -0.15    57.77     4.94    -1.13     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    2.75R    0.08  
Accrington_Stanley   31   40   -9       3.91    68.65     0.32    57.46     5.22   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    4.58R    0.15  
Scunthorpe           33   40  -17      -2.90    37.59   -12.91    57.83     5.00   -17.11     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    4.14R    0.18  
Plymouth             33   38  -13      -2.06    41.20    -4.80    52.71     4.78   -17.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.77R    1.35  
Gillingham           33   36  -13      -3.27    35.61    -3.13    52.11     4.89   -15.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   24.51R    2.47  
Walsall              33   35  -19      -2.16    40.60    -6.62    48.97     4.72   -24.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.68R    7.85  
Bristol_Rovers       32   34   -4      -7.46    18.98    -0.56    51.40     5.05    -6.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   27.02R    3.00  
Rochdale             33   34  -26      -2.20    40.56   -10.77    47.93     4.81   -32.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.34R   13.07  
Shrewsbury           32   33  -10      -8.47    15.39    -6.83    52.23     5.14    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    23.02R    2.51  
Oxford_Utd           33   33  -12      -7.67    18.73    -4.57    49.99     4.96   -13.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.85R    5.81  
Bradford             33   33  -16      -6.95    20.64    -7.80    48.55     4.88   -19.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.70R    9.76  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   29  -24      -4.83    27.88    -7.63    42.70     4.67   -29.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.66R   53.72  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, Cheltenham 2 0 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     32   62  +24       8.21    83.18     9.36    85.03     5.13    29.78    43.69    84.58    99.50    88.46P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             33   60  +24       2.40    60.31     4.90    83.58     4.94    32.88    32.87    81.15    99.24    86.58P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        33   58  +22       2.44    61.32     7.11    79.77     4.82    27.71    10.48    52.25    96.29    65.92P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   56  +19      -1.38    43.67     0.96    79.59     4.90    27.53    10.44    50.88    95.80    65.91P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   54  +18       6.51    77.25    14.91    72.06     4.93    18.45     0.55     7.02    58.33    16.57P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   53  +17      -0.19    49.11     5.30    72.66     4.93    19.66     0.81     8.55    63.80    22.40P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         33   52  +11       1.01    54.88     2.54    72.06     4.96    14.34     0.48     5.84    57.20    17.67P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           32   51  +11       0.56    52.75     1.31    72.64     5.19    14.60     0.66     7.90    60.81    21.09P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   49   +6       3.69    66.60     6.05    65.58     4.91     4.08     0.01     0.39    12.75     2.66P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        33   48   -4       4.19    69.04    -1.83    64.92     4.85    -5.30     0.01     0.23     8.77     1.72P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           33   46  +10      -7.99    18.30    -3.02    65.77     5.00    12.78     0.01     0.47    15.62     4.71P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   46   -2       5.17    73.60     4.07    61.94     4.83    -4.62     0.00     0.03     2.96     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            33   46   -3       3.85    67.93     1.91    63.93     4.91    -2.74     0.00     0.07     6.42     1.08P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          32   46   -3       0.83    54.36    -4.94    66.62     5.13    -1.06     0.01     0.52    16.68     3.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   32   46   -7       5.86    75.95    -1.01    63.11     5.10   -10.27     0.00     0.12     5.39     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      33   39   -4      -6.95    21.76    -4.87    57.44     4.95    -3.20     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.05P    0.28R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     33   38  -10      -1.47    43.54    -1.28    54.02     4.81   -12.74     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    1.50R    0.27  
Cheltenham       33   38  -11      -2.14    40.66    -2.83    53.43     4.84   -14.74     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.87R    0.33  
Cambridge_Utd    33   36  -23      -1.76    42.41   -12.13    50.61     4.71   -27.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.57R    1.78  
Morecambe        33   35  -16      -1.13    45.48    -2.44    50.47     4.80   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.81R    2.08  
Port_Vale        33   33  -13      -6.52    21.90    -5.32    48.23     4.71   -16.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.78R    4.73  
Yeovil           33   30  -14      -7.18    19.33    -2.14    45.54     4.74   -17.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.53R   11.95  
Macclesfield     33   29  -21      -2.27    40.19     0.61    41.25     4.49   -29.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.98R   44.30  
Notts_County     33   28  -31      -8.87    14.28   -17.21    42.60     4.80   -36.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.67R   34.52  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, AFC_Fylde 6 2 Havant_&_Wville; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            34   65  +19      11.62    91.27     9.12    83.64     4.53    22.34    25.27    90.69    41.47P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   64  +23      12.90    92.95    16.23    82.90     4.68    26.76    22.30    88.53    35.91P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      33   61  +29       3.69    66.55    11.34    83.39     4.89    35.71    30.35    90.15    49.07P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          34   60  +28       0.99    54.13     9.35    81.14     4.63    34.94    14.06    82.13    35.71P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       33   57  +22       5.56    73.21    12.58    77.38     5.12    25.78     4.38    52.05    15.26P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      33   56   +7       7.86    81.75     2.55    75.49     4.89     9.66     1.47    32.23     7.65P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          34   55  +11       3.21    64.57     3.12    72.39     4.70    12.49     0.26    14.41     3.44P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          33   55   +0      11.11    89.71     1.82    72.07     4.85    -1.12     0.26    12.02     1.96P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     32   53  +17       4.94    70.73    10.83    74.57     5.31    20.72     1.61    30.75     7.75P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   51  +13      -0.48    47.88     5.66    69.95     4.72    16.73     0.03     6.27     1.58P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             33   45   -1       1.77    58.93     1.21    61.61     4.81    -2.37     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.13R    0.00  
Bromley            33   44   +0      -2.68    38.33    -2.21    61.77     4.95    -0.20     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.16R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   44   -4      -1.41    43.72    -2.68    59.19     4.65    -5.63     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.56R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          33   39   -4      -7.46    19.36    -6.14    57.37     5.00    -3.19     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.29R    0.00  
Halifax            33   39   -5      -0.39    48.84     1.79    53.86     4.63    -8.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.90R    0.01  
Boreham_Wood       34   39  -10      -5.52    26.23    -7.92    53.65     4.58   -12.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.31R    0.00  
Barnet             29   37   -7      -5.60    24.91   -11.61    62.19     5.82    -4.11     0.00     0.54     0.16P    0.61R    0.00  
Maidenhead         33   37  -20       0.42    53.21    -6.83    50.94     4.72   -26.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.70R    0.11  
Chesterfield       32   36   -6     -10.32    11.39    -9.92    57.09     5.21    -3.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.08R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     34   36  -16      -8.18    17.40   -12.71    52.57     4.69   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.27R    0.03  
Havant_&_Wville    34   34  -14      -2.80    38.46     2.55    46.99     4.69   -19.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.07R    1.00  
Aldershot          33   29  -28      -8.54    14.82   -17.36    44.06     4.72   -31.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.37R    5.88  
Maidstone_United   34   26  -29      -6.84    20.23    -8.66    37.74     4.36   -36.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.47R   39.27  
Braintree_Town     33   25  -25      -5.46    25.94    -2.12    36.31     4.49   -35.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.08R   53.70