Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 21 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.47    57.74     4.55    91.73     3.48    76.02    53.63    94.66    99.91   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.49    92.91    10.31    91.50     4.09    60.97    43.75    92.03    99.78    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.57    83.13     0.02    83.41     4.30    40.31     2.61    13.17    89.56    97.58   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.62    58.27    -4.48    73.21     4.49    25.96     0.01     0.06     4.03    42.22    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.75    69.71    -1.32    72.06     4.63    24.94     0.00     0.05     3.71    31.26    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.81    64.71    -1.73    71.93     4.51    24.42     0.00     0.03     3.02    28.95    99.41     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.53    81.63     7.32    54.84     4.56    -0.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.20     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.36    77.46     7.21    51.14     4.35    -5.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.00     0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.76    30.77    -0.72    46.51     4.36    -5.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.22R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       1.95    61.32     1.83    47.65     4.36   -11.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.15R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.82    66.10     1.69    47.85     4.55   -13.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.20R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.77    40.75     1.16    49.61     4.62    -1.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.56    26.32     0.40    41.32     4.43   -10.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.15R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.41    43.03     1.04    39.92     4.24   -17.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.16R    0.00  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.47    36.85    -7.24    38.71     4.25   -26.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.06R    0.00  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.53    26.02    -2.03    40.61     4.56   -13.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.31R    0.00  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       0.97    57.10    -2.56    35.55     4.17   -33.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.37R    0.11  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.13    23.36    -4.10    37.74     4.37   -20.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.77R    0.05  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.34    21.25    -5.57    26.69     4.16   -45.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.63R   11.47  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -8.12     7.88    -5.79    19.58     3.80   -46.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   88.36  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 20 February 2019, Derby 0 1 Millwall; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         33   63  +23       9.91    86.87    11.19    84.79     4.98    29.21    31.43    57.49    98.78    67.13P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   61  +24       6.87    78.49    10.71    82.06     4.93    28.86    15.81    35.44    96.46    50.39P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   61  +17      12.00    91.83     9.40    83.11     5.21    21.26    20.32    40.44    96.78    52.14P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       33   60  +25       0.06    49.63     2.34    83.85     4.92    34.49    28.14    52.34    98.00    67.56P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   54  +12       2.20    60.31     0.64    77.72     5.03    18.45     3.00     9.41    81.81    30.77P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   53  +10       6.41    77.77     4.04    74.00     5.29    10.59     0.93     3.27    52.71    13.38P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           32   51   +6       1.31    55.98    -2.48    73.09     5.14    10.31     0.35     1.53    46.34    12.29P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   47   +8       2.05    59.70     8.65    65.61     4.93     9.19     0.00     0.02     6.48     1.28P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   46   +9       5.05    73.23    13.44    63.90     5.09     6.96     0.00     0.02     3.90     0.63P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     33   44   +4      -7.18    20.70    -4.77    64.12     4.98     7.41     0.00     0.01     3.96     1.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         33   44   +3      -3.65    33.90    -0.40    62.17     4.90     3.43     0.00     0.00     1.62     0.33P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            32   44   +3      -1.67    42.54     0.62    63.33     5.11     2.87     0.00     0.01     2.91     0.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         32   44   +3      -4.61    29.84    -4.00    65.51     5.16     6.36     0.00     0.02     6.58     1.63P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   43   -7       0.59    53.42    -2.26    60.16     4.97    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   41  -11       0.24    51.81    -6.15    58.52     5.10   -13.58     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    0.04R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   +7      -6.83    20.95     0.80    62.45     5.39     9.81     0.00     0.01     2.75     0.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Stoke           33   40   -7      -5.60    26.10    -7.61    58.11     4.93    -6.38     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P    0.10R    0.00  
QPR             32   39   -9       0.59    53.58     0.11    55.97     4.99   -12.76     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.35R    0.00  
Millwall        32   34  -10      -6.14    23.26    -4.61    50.73     5.01   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.58R    0.03  
Wigan           32   34  -14      -6.14    23.55    -8.64    51.95     5.06   -15.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.51R    0.03  
Reading         33   29  -15      -7.76    17.46    -1.75    43.34     4.72   -20.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.84R    2.03  
Rotherham       33   29  -20      -4.19    31.28    -0.57    40.70     4.53   -30.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.36R    5.78  
Bolton          33   26  -30      -2.61    37.84    -5.15    37.22     4.32   -39.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.60R   24.33  
Ipswich         33   20  -31     -13.66     3.65   -13.54    32.91     4.56   -38.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.58R   67.81  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, Accrington_Stanley 4 2 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                33   71  +38      10.62    89.06    15.03    96.11     4.84    49.22    77.31    94.61   100.00    96.35P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             33   66  +31       4.15    68.10     6.06    89.63     4.91    39.48    14.56    60.42    99.91    74.70P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           32   62  +25       3.53    65.62     2.93    87.32     5.14    34.26     7.32    36.42    99.49    58.25P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   61  +19       9.17    85.07     9.34    81.55     4.95    23.02     0.62     6.30    94.61    25.25P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             33   56  +15       4.00    67.97     5.22    77.18     5.00    19.92     0.07     0.90    79.72    19.13P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   53  +19       4.31    69.31     9.86    76.06     5.38    22.57     0.12     1.29    72.88    16.38P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   52   +7       2.76    62.54     1.31    72.16     5.02    10.39     0.00     0.06    36.63     6.88P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            32   48   +6       2.53    62.08     3.33    67.47     5.13     6.57     0.00     0.00    11.40     2.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Coventry             33   46   -1       4.34    69.53     3.39    60.76     4.74    -5.35     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.09P    0.32R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       33   45   +8      -2.91    37.28     4.15    63.86     4.97     9.56     0.00     0.00     3.32     0.66P    0.07R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   43   +2      -4.04    32.64    -0.68    59.77     4.90     0.51     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.13P    0.71R    0.01  
Wycombe              33   43   -5       4.15    68.96     5.08    59.06     4.93    -7.75     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P    1.73R    0.03  
Southend             33   40   -1      -4.96    28.64    -0.34    57.76     4.96    -1.14     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    2.83R    0.08  
Accrington_Stanley   31   40   -9       3.94    68.89     0.35    57.40     5.22   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    4.83R    0.18  
Scunthorpe           33   40  -17      -2.58    39.04   -12.42    57.71     4.98   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.00P    4.38R    0.18  
Plymouth             33   38  -13      -1.94    41.78    -4.62    52.66     4.77   -17.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.10R    1.49  
Gillingham           33   36  -13      -3.30    35.72    -3.19    52.15     4.90   -15.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   24.13R    2.41  
Walsall              33   35  -19      -2.22    40.38    -6.75    48.97     4.73   -24.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.78R    8.11  
Bristol_Rovers       32   34   -4      -7.35    18.88    -0.44    51.39     5.04    -6.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.39R    3.16  
Rochdale             33   34  -26      -2.18    40.93   -10.73    48.00     4.80   -32.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.98R   12.85  
Shrewsbury           32   33  -10      -8.29    16.14    -6.56    52.15     5.11   -10.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.57R    2.62  
Oxford_Utd           33   33  -12      -7.80    18.43    -4.81    50.07     4.93   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.56R    5.76  
Bradford             33   33  -16      -6.85    21.22    -7.75    48.58     4.84   -19.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.21R    9.61  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   29  -24      -4.93    27.54    -7.75    42.77     4.68   -29.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.39R   53.52  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, Cheltenham 2 0 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     32   62  +24       8.24    83.45     9.37    85.04     5.12    29.79    43.78    84.66    99.52    88.64P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             33   60  +24       2.28    59.89     4.70    83.63     4.99    32.93    33.14    81.53    99.06    86.76P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        33   58  +22       2.71    62.06     7.42    79.67     4.82    27.60    10.06    51.13    96.18    64.73P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   56  +19      -1.31    43.55     1.01    79.63     4.88    27.58    10.53    51.36    95.80    65.89P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   54  +18       6.29    76.72    14.54    72.17     4.92    18.56     0.59     7.09    59.46    16.68P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   53  +17      -0.24    48.55     5.19    72.70     4.97    19.73     0.82     8.81    63.83    22.91P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         33   52  +11       1.01    54.63     2.62    72.02     5.02    14.29     0.43     5.97    56.73    17.88P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           32   51  +11       0.53    52.60     1.35    72.61     5.17    14.55     0.61     7.81    60.65    21.27P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   49   +6       3.58    66.07     5.86    65.62     4.93     4.15     0.01     0.30    13.01     2.65P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        33   48   -4       4.49    70.30    -1.33    64.78     4.88    -5.53     0.01     0.17     8.48     1.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           33   46  +10      -7.64    19.47    -2.55    65.67     5.00    12.65     0.01     0.41    15.00     4.56P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   46   -2       5.22    73.82     4.16    61.87     4.82    -4.70     0.00     0.02     2.86     0.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe            33   46   -3       3.65    66.71     1.67    64.00     4.92    -2.68     0.00     0.09     6.79     1.27P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          32   46   -3       0.86    54.29    -4.91    66.67     5.11    -0.94     0.02     0.54    16.87     3.81P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   32   46   -7       5.73    75.64    -1.23    63.12     5.10   -10.26     0.00     0.10     5.36     0.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton      33   39   -4      -6.97    21.62    -4.96    57.52     4.96    -3.09     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.07P    0.23R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     33   38  -10      -1.52    43.45    -1.37    53.96     4.78   -12.79     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00     1.53R    0.29  
Cheltenham       33   38  -11      -2.15    40.64    -2.85    53.46     4.85   -14.70     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.85R    0.31  
Cambridge_Utd    33   36  -23      -1.78    42.45   -12.12    50.60     4.67   -27.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.31R    1.81  
Morecambe        33   35  -16      -0.90    46.69    -2.11    50.38     4.80   -19.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.13R    2.27  
Port_Vale        33   33  -13      -6.55    21.47    -5.35    48.19     4.65   -16.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.91R    4.68  
Yeovil           33   30  -14      -7.16    19.68    -2.12    45.51     4.74   -17.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.27R   12.22  
Macclesfield     33   29  -21      -2.55    38.97     0.18    41.41     4.53   -29.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.95R   43.70  
Notts_County     33   28  -31      -8.88    14.25   -17.18    42.63     4.80   -36.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.80R   34.68  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, AFC_Fylde 6 2 Havant_&_Wville; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            34   65  +19      11.65    91.31     9.12    83.70     4.52    22.39    25.44    91.24    41.87P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   64  +23      12.92    92.86    16.27    82.90     4.68    26.73    22.27    88.55    35.93P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      33   61  +29       3.55    65.87    11.14    83.35     4.88    35.71    30.13    90.04    48.85P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          34   60  +28       1.03    54.21     9.42    81.06     4.63    34.85    14.13    81.88    35.19P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       33   57  +22       5.67    73.30    12.72    77.38     5.10    25.77     4.46    52.51    15.50P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      33   56   +7       7.82    81.75     2.50    75.55     4.88     9.75     1.44    32.47     7.85P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          34   55  +11       3.41    65.38     3.43    72.26     4.70    12.31     0.26    13.85     3.27P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          33   55   +0      11.04    89.93     1.70    72.08     4.86    -1.13     0.28    12.07     2.13P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     32   53  +17       5.25    72.04    11.31    74.48     5.32    20.61     1.56    30.19     7.61P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   51  +13      -0.52    47.66     5.53    70.02     4.73    16.82     0.05     6.52     1.67P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             33   45   -1       1.81    59.06     1.31    61.56     4.81    -2.41     0.00     0.07     0.00P    0.16R    0.00  
Bromley            33   44   +0      -2.68    38.30    -2.21    61.75     4.99    -0.22     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.17R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   44   -4      -1.23    44.76    -2.42    59.16     4.62    -5.70     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.50R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          33   39   -4      -7.45    19.48    -6.09    57.35     5.00    -3.25     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.27R    0.00  
Halifax            33   39   -5      -0.33    49.10     1.92    53.85     4.64    -8.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.08R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       34   39  -10      -5.71    25.51    -8.22    53.76     4.61   -12.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.18R    0.01  
Barnet             29   37   -7      -5.71    24.15   -11.79    62.25     5.79    -4.03     0.00     0.45     0.10P    0.62R    0.00  
Maidenhead         33   37  -20       0.43    52.87    -6.78    50.95     4.75   -26.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.01R    0.11  
Chesterfield       32   36   -6     -10.39    11.41   -10.02    57.11     5.22    -3.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.10R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     34   36  -16      -8.08    17.79   -12.56    52.51     4.67   -15.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.49R    0.04  
Havant_&_Wville    34   34  -14      -2.86    37.98     2.47    46.97     4.66   -19.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.33R    0.98  
Aldershot          33   29  -28      -8.80    14.27   -17.72    44.17     4.78   -31.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.61R    6.07  
Maidstone_United   34   26  -29      -6.87    20.31    -8.61    37.71     4.34   -36.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.50R   39.87  
Braintree_Town     33   25  -25      -5.64    24.87    -2.42    36.38     4.49   -35.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.98R   52.91