Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 20 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.51    57.87     4.62    91.75     3.50    76.07    54.04    94.74    99.92   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.42    92.98    10.22    91.50     4.11    60.95    43.57    92.05    99.75    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.47    82.84    -0.19    83.44     4.26    40.42     2.38    13.07    89.92    97.83   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.57    58.20    -4.62    73.21     4.49    25.94     0.00     0.07     4.21    41.83    99.71     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.83    70.15    -1.11    72.04     4.61    24.87     0.00     0.04     3.36    30.69    99.39     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.61    64.11    -2.04    72.03     4.49    24.62     0.00     0.03     2.85    29.67    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.56    81.66     7.35    54.83     4.57    -0.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.17     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.36    77.48     7.22    51.09     4.30    -5.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.79    30.51    -0.75    46.50     4.37    -5.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.21R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       1.93    61.30     1.75    47.66     4.32   -11.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.73    65.62     1.62    47.91     4.51   -13.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.79    40.80     1.14    49.67     4.60    -1.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.04R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.48    26.94     0.52    41.25     4.40   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.13R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.32    43.29     1.18    39.94     4.24   -17.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.01R    0.01  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.36    37.30    -7.02    38.64     4.23   -26.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.25R    0.00  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.54    25.80    -2.06    40.66     4.54   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.97R    0.01  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       1.07    57.74    -2.35    35.49     4.16   -33.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.07R    0.10  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.13    23.49    -4.18    37.76     4.37   -20.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.66R    0.05  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.43    21.01    -5.77    26.69     4.17   -45.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.43R   11.44  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -7.96     8.20    -5.53    19.52     3.81   -46.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   88.39  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, QPR 2 3 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         33   63  +23      10.20    87.44    11.59    84.73     4.97    29.11    31.14    56.37    98.42    65.93P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   61  +24       6.95    78.70    10.84    82.01     4.93    28.82    15.56    34.36    95.57    49.52P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   61  +17      12.04    92.20     9.46    83.15     5.16    21.31    20.37    40.43    96.27    51.99P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       33   60  +25       0.14    50.11     2.42    83.79     4.90    34.42    27.54    51.13    97.70    66.66P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   54  +12       2.15    60.19     0.55    77.77     5.08    18.49     3.21     9.77    79.19    30.15P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   53  +10       6.35    77.44     3.93    74.08     5.34    10.70     1.00     3.52    49.09    12.97P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   51   +7       2.71    62.82    -1.48    75.23     5.29    12.44     1.15     4.28    59.62    17.59P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   47   +8       2.05    59.85     8.69    65.59     4.92     9.15     0.00     0.02     5.43     1.02P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   46   +9       4.96    72.75    13.36    63.95     5.12     7.02     0.00     0.02     3.38     0.56P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     33   44   +4      -7.07    20.97    -4.66    64.14     5.00     7.45     0.00     0.01     3.27     0.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         33   44   +3      -3.76    33.28    -0.61    62.22     4.91     3.48     0.00     0.00     1.17     0.25P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            32   44   +3      -1.73    42.16     0.51    63.37     5.15     2.96     0.00     0.01     2.57     0.53P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         32   44   +3      -4.54    29.89    -3.89    65.46     5.15     6.28     0.01     0.05     5.46     1.43P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   43   -7       0.71    53.71    -2.13    60.07     4.98    -8.36     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   41  -11       0.07    51.14    -6.40    58.60     5.07   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P    0.05R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   +7      -6.70    21.54     1.02    62.37     5.38     9.69     0.00     0.01     2.09     0.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           33   40   -7      -5.79    25.64    -7.85    58.15     4.92    -6.35     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.05R    0.00  
QPR             32   39   -9       0.48    53.17     0.01    56.02     4.99   -12.69     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.28R    0.00  
Wigan           32   34  -14      -6.38    22.98    -9.00    51.99     5.08   -15.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.38R    0.03  
Millwall        31   31  -11      -7.75    17.01    -5.48    48.35     5.18   -15.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.59R    0.20  
Reading         33   29  -15      -7.84    17.49    -1.84    43.36     4.72   -20.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.87R    2.06  
Rotherham       33   29  -20      -4.21    31.36    -0.59    40.69     4.51   -30.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.48R    5.50  
Bolton          33   26  -30      -2.50    38.13    -4.96    37.15     4.29   -39.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.87R   24.53  
Ipswich         33   20  -31     -13.68     3.75   -13.49    32.88     4.53   -38.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.40R   67.69  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, Accrington_Stanley 4 2 Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                33   71  +38      10.90    89.32    15.45    96.06     4.85    49.10    76.77    94.63   100.00    96.40P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             33   66  +31       4.12    67.91     5.94    89.64     4.93    39.50    14.76    60.53    99.92    74.70P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           32   62  +25       3.49    65.01     2.82    87.35     5.15    34.28     7.70    36.44    99.52    58.36P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           33   61  +19       9.22    85.44     9.44    81.47     4.95    22.93     0.62     6.23    94.52    25.47P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             33   56  +15       4.02    67.90     5.21    77.25     4.96    20.01     0.06     0.94    80.44    19.43P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   53  +19       4.30    69.32     9.80    76.10     5.38    22.62     0.10     1.17    73.33    15.97P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   52   +7       2.97    63.51     1.62    72.12     5.03    10.36     0.00     0.06    36.24     6.82P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            32   48   +6       2.61    62.17     3.44    67.47     5.08     6.57     0.00     0.00    10.96     1.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             33   46   -1       4.20    69.11     3.28    60.80     4.72    -5.30     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.09P    0.33R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       33   45   +8      -2.85    37.46     4.24    63.81     4.94     9.48     0.00     0.00     3.05     0.60P    0.06R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        33   43   +2      -4.06    32.41    -0.73    59.81     4.88     0.59     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    0.73R    0.00  
Wycombe              33   43   -5       3.78    67.64     4.59    59.19     4.94    -7.56     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P    1.52R    0.03  
Southend             33   40   -1      -4.99    28.74    -0.40    57.82     4.99    -1.07     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    2.84R    0.11  
Accrington_Stanley   31   40   -9       3.93    68.93     0.35    57.38     5.19   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    4.69R    0.17  
Scunthorpe           33   40  -17      -2.73    37.98   -12.64    57.74     4.97   -17.23     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    4.25R    0.17  
Plymouth             33   38  -13      -2.03    41.06    -4.82    52.64     4.76   -17.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.99R    1.38  
Gillingham           33   36  -13      -3.21    35.99    -3.06    52.11     4.93   -15.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.88R    2.54  
Walsall              33   35  -19      -2.18    40.58    -6.70    48.91     4.73   -24.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.14R    8.10  
Bristol_Rovers       32   34   -4      -7.37    18.98    -0.43    51.34     5.07    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   27.32R    3.13  
Rochdale             33   34  -26      -2.18    40.91   -10.72    47.98     4.78   -32.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.88R   12.76  
Shrewsbury           32   33  -10      -8.38    15.53    -6.65    52.21     5.13    -9.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.96R    2.57  
Oxford_Utd           33   33  -12      -7.81    18.18    -4.77    50.01     4.96   -13.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.69R    5.85  
Bradford             33   33  -16      -6.72    21.89    -7.57    48.54     4.85   -19.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.23R    9.52  
AFC_Wimbledon        33   29  -24      -4.89    27.88    -7.69    42.72     4.66   -29.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.49R   53.66  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, Cheltenham 2 0 Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     32   62  +24       8.20    83.34     9.35    85.03     5.13    29.74    43.84    84.58    99.56    88.57P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             33   60  +24       2.57    61.10     5.16    83.55     4.95    32.80    32.48    81.04    99.16    86.51P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        33   58  +22       2.39    61.05     7.01    79.81     4.83    27.78    10.69    52.12    96.38    65.76P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   56  +19      -1.26    43.79     1.08    79.56     4.87    27.48    10.49    51.09    95.78    65.58P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   54  +18       6.53    77.66    14.92    72.03     4.89    18.39     0.53     6.83    58.44    16.26P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   53  +17      -0.22    49.06     5.25    72.74     4.93    19.76     0.77     8.83    64.17    23.01P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         33   52  +11       1.13    55.06     2.73    72.00     5.00    14.24     0.46     5.95    56.73    17.60P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           32   51  +11       0.59    52.65     1.40    72.60     5.18    14.53     0.69     7.79    60.71    21.28P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   49   +6       3.62    66.26     5.91    65.66     4.94     4.20     0.02     0.39    13.17     2.69P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        33   48   -4       4.11    68.83    -1.90    64.90     4.85    -5.32     0.01     0.18     8.79     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           33   46  +10      -7.69    19.11    -2.62    65.67     4.99    12.66     0.01     0.46    14.86     4.52P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   46   -2       5.23    73.60     4.15    61.86     4.82    -4.74     0.00     0.02     2.90     0.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe            33   46   -3       3.60    66.88     1.52    64.02     4.92    -2.64     0.00     0.09     6.81     1.20P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          32   46   -3       0.95    54.79    -4.78    66.60     5.13    -1.06     0.02     0.52    16.65     3.88P    0.00     0.00  
Newport_County   32   46   -7       5.77    75.69    -1.17    63.16     5.09   -10.19     0.00     0.12     5.51     0.92P    0.00     0.00  
Northampton      33   39   -4      -6.89    21.95    -4.83    57.44     4.95    -3.19     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.08P    0.29R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     33   38  -10      -1.69    42.71    -1.57    53.97     4.78   -12.73     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.57R    0.31  
Cheltenham       33   38  -11      -2.25    40.07    -2.92    53.49     4.86   -14.65     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.98R    0.36  
Cambridge_Utd    33   36  -23      -1.72    42.46   -12.06    50.63     4.71   -27.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.62R    1.95  
Morecambe        33   35  -16      -1.03    45.98    -2.29    50.42     4.77   -19.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.65R    2.14  
Port_Vale        33   33  -13      -6.56    21.62    -5.38    48.24     4.66   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.62R    4.49  
Yeovil           33   30  -14      -7.28    19.13    -2.32    45.55     4.73   -17.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.83R   11.86  
Macclesfield     33   29  -21      -2.24    40.30     0.66    41.32     4.53   -29.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.82R   44.19  
Notts_County     33   28  -31      -8.93    14.09   -17.29    42.63     4.80   -36.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.61R   34.67  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2019, AFC_Fylde 6 2 Havant_&_Wville; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Wrexham            34   65  +19      11.52    91.27     8.95    83.69     4.53    22.39    25.31    90.98    41.60P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     34   64  +23      12.99    92.96    16.36    82.89     4.69    26.70    22.23    88.34    35.53P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      33   61  +29       3.52    65.44    11.12    83.40     4.87    35.76    30.46    90.22    49.36P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          34   60  +28       1.05    54.41     9.47    81.08     4.65    34.89    14.21    81.93    35.65P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       33   57  +22       5.59    72.97    12.55    77.38     5.08    25.81     4.24    52.65    15.43P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      33   56   +7       7.86    81.87     2.53    75.47     4.85     9.66     1.35    31.93     7.45P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          34   55  +11       3.30    64.84     3.28    72.36     4.72    12.44     0.26    14.49     3.49P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          33   55   +0      11.21    89.89     1.96    72.04     4.88    -1.19     0.28    12.20     2.14P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     32   53  +17       5.03    71.14    10.97    74.53     5.33    20.63     1.64    30.46     7.70P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   34   51  +13      -0.30    48.94     5.83    69.90     4.72    16.63     0.02     6.07     1.47P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             33   45   -1       1.81    59.04     1.26    61.57     4.81    -2.39     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.17R    0.00  
Bromley            33   44   +0      -2.81    37.57    -2.43    61.74     4.95    -0.18     0.00     0.11     0.03P    0.18R    0.00  
Hartlepool         34   44   -4      -1.35    44.15    -2.58    59.19     4.63    -5.65     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.53R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          33   39   -4      -7.37    19.85    -5.99    57.33     4.99    -3.26     0.00     0.01     0.01P    2.28R    0.00  
Halifax            33   39   -5      -0.26    49.35     2.03    53.81     4.64    -8.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.06R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       34   39  -10      -5.55    26.05    -7.93    53.68     4.59   -12.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.30R    0.01  
Barnet             29   37   -7      -5.60    24.70   -11.60    62.19     5.77    -4.15     0.00     0.49     0.11P    0.65R    0.00  
Maidenhead         33   37  -20       0.44    53.33    -6.75    50.97     4.71   -26.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.82R    0.10  
Chesterfield       32   36   -6     -10.35    11.54    -9.96    57.07     5.24    -3.11     0.00     0.00     0.00P    3.44R    0.01  
Dover_Athletic     34   36  -16      -8.04    17.72   -12.47    52.52     4.69   -15.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.98R    0.05  
Havant_&_Wville    34   34  -14      -3.07    37.63     2.15    47.16     4.70   -19.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.86R    0.97  
Aldershot          33   29  -28      -8.72    14.40   -17.60    44.09     4.75   -31.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.18R    6.23  
Maidstone_United   34   26  -29      -6.87    19.78    -8.72    37.71     4.31   -36.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.64R   39.80  
Braintree_Town     33   25  -25      -5.67    25.07    -2.45    36.41     4.52   -35.02     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.90R   52.84