Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 19 February 2019 at 22:00:02 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.42    57.31     4.37    91.72     3.48    76.04    53.50    94.61    99.90    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.51    93.13    10.36    91.51     4.08    60.93    43.97    92.23    99.81    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.41    82.53    -0.30    83.47     4.27    40.47     2.53    13.02    90.08    97.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.62    58.40    -4.50    73.17     4.50    25.88     0.00     0.08     4.04    42.04    99.68     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.74    69.77    -1.27    72.04     4.62    24.89     0.00     0.02     3.31    31.15    99.37     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.70    64.25    -1.91    71.93     4.48    24.48     0.00     0.04     2.87    28.94    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.49    81.43     7.25    54.85     4.57    -0.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.24     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.35    77.47     7.23    51.15     4.34    -5.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.74    30.82    -0.69    46.56     4.38    -5.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.21R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       1.98    61.60     1.87    47.67     4.37   -11.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.78    65.62     1.71    47.86     4.56   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.96    39.83     0.91    49.71     4.63    -1.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.04R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.51    26.69     0.44    41.25     4.40   -10.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.09R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.27    43.54     1.27    39.87     4.23   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.16R    0.00  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.43    37.27    -7.17    38.70     4.25   -26.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.92R    0.01  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.61    25.49    -2.21    40.63     4.52   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.11R    0.01  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       1.12    58.11    -2.25    35.53     4.17   -33.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.59R    0.14  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.17    23.12    -4.16    37.75     4.39   -20.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.78R    0.06  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.16    22.13    -5.33    26.60     4.12   -45.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.84R   11.73  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -8.08     8.00    -5.61    19.58     3.84   -46.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   88.04  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 February 2019, Blackburn 0 1 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         33   63  +23      10.15    87.66    11.56    84.76     4.96    29.12    33.79    58.87    98.44    67.78P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   61  +24       7.04    79.11    11.03    82.04     4.90    28.83    16.72    36.53    95.81    50.92P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   61  +17      12.07    92.22     9.47    83.17     5.19    21.33    21.79    42.86    96.21    53.77P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       32   57  +24      -0.87    45.48     2.46    82.50     5.14    33.87    21.94    43.09    95.73    60.44P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   54  +12       2.06    59.64     0.45    77.81     5.06    18.54     3.38    10.46    80.06    30.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   53  +10       6.57    78.64     4.27    73.92     5.31    10.50     1.10     3.63    48.01    12.57P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   51   +7       2.68    62.46    -1.55    75.23     5.29    12.45     1.25     4.45    60.41    18.02P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   47   +8       2.00    59.58     8.57    65.65     4.94     9.24     0.00     0.02     5.80     1.09P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   46   +9       5.06    72.96    13.46    63.99     5.13     7.02     0.00     0.02     3.58     0.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     33   44   +4      -7.13    20.62    -4.78    64.15     5.00     7.44     0.00     0.01     3.50     0.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         33   44   +3      -3.95    32.66    -0.81    62.29     4.92     3.60     0.00     0.00     1.30     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            32   44   +3      -1.74    42.30     0.50    63.35     5.11     2.91     0.00     0.01     2.51     0.50P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         32   44   +3      -4.61    29.83    -4.04    65.45     5.16     6.30     0.02     0.05     5.49     1.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       33   43   -7       0.54    53.06    -2.36    60.11     4.95    -8.30     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   41  -11       0.02    50.75    -6.54    58.55     5.11   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.04R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   +7      -6.77    21.18     0.90    62.39     5.41     9.71     0.00     0.01     2.29     0.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           33   40   -7      -5.79    25.39    -7.86    58.18     4.89    -6.29     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.04P    0.06R    0.00  
QPR             31   39   -8       1.28    56.81    -0.09    57.13     5.21   -12.11     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.20R    0.00  
Wigan           32   34  -14      -6.27    23.28    -8.81    51.96     5.09   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.40R    0.03  
Millwall        31   31  -11      -7.73    17.10    -5.43    48.36     5.21   -15.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.63R    0.18  
Reading         33   29  -15      -7.80    17.40    -1.78    43.36     4.73   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.52R    1.92  
Rotherham       33   29  -20      -4.06    31.81    -0.30    40.56     4.50   -30.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.21R    5.72  
Bolton          33   26  -30      -2.54    38.22    -5.04    37.21     4.29   -39.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.44R   24.31  
Ipswich         33   20  -31     -13.51     3.95   -13.26    32.83     4.53   -38.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.47R   67.85  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 February 2019, Barnsley 2 1 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                33   71  +38      10.72    89.03    15.18    96.12     4.83    49.13    73.76    94.49   100.00    96.27P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             32   65  +31       4.74    71.09     6.20    90.83     5.09    40.73    20.03    68.66    99.96    80.06P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           32   60  +19       9.69    86.99     9.63    82.48     5.15    23.84     0.97     8.34    95.84    27.48P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           31   59  +23       3.07    63.97     2.89    86.25     5.36    33.07     5.07    26.56    98.98    51.77P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             33   56  +15       4.06    67.85     5.30    77.21     4.96    19.91     0.06     0.80    80.02    18.82P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   53  +19       4.29    69.26     9.84    76.07     5.38    22.60     0.11     1.08    72.91    15.86P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   52   +7       3.00    63.57     1.75    72.09     5.03    10.33     0.00     0.07    35.74     6.78P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            32   48   +6       2.48    61.75     3.25    67.50     5.10     6.63     0.00     0.00    11.15     2.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             33   46   -1       4.17    68.89     3.20    60.83     4.72    -5.22     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.10P    0.45R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       33   45   +8      -2.67    38.39     4.51    63.82     4.97     9.48     0.00     0.00     3.33     0.61P    0.12R    0.00  
Wycombe              33   43   -5       4.03    68.31     4.97    59.10     4.94    -7.69     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.03P    1.96R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        32   42   +2      -3.92    32.80    -1.00    59.47     5.12    -0.57     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.10P    1.32R    0.00  
Southend             33   40   -1      -5.11    28.20    -0.57    57.86     4.94    -0.99     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P    2.84R    0.04  
Scunthorpe           33   40  -17      -2.77    37.87   -12.64    57.78     5.00   -17.19     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    4.66R    0.11  
Plymouth             33   38  -13      -1.99    41.44    -4.70    52.67     4.78   -17.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.38R    1.03  
Accrington_Stanley   30   37  -11       3.41    67.17    -0.23    55.22     5.39   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   12.35R    0.67  
Gillingham           32   36  -11      -2.91    37.08    -2.94    52.95     5.06   -14.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.39R    1.51  
Walsall              33   35  -19      -2.18    40.40    -6.65    48.92     4.74   -24.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.93R    6.28  
Rochdale             32   34  -25      -0.97    46.32   -10.30    49.70     5.03   -30.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.68R    6.56  
Bristol_Rovers       31   33   -4      -7.14    19.47    -0.61    51.20     5.20    -7.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   30.53R    2.85  
Oxford_Utd           32   33  -10      -7.08    20.29    -3.90    51.66     5.15   -10.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.04R    2.53  
Shrewsbury           32   33  -10      -8.47    15.50    -6.81    52.13     5.17   -10.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.13R    2.17  
Bradford             33   33  -16      -6.79    21.23    -7.60    48.51     4.84   -19.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.67R    7.56  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   26  -25      -6.32    20.93    -8.76    40.75     4.83   -31.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.53R   68.68  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 February 2019, Cambridge_Utd 0 0 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     32   62  +24       8.38    83.70     9.59    85.04     5.10    29.81    43.47    84.71    99.55    88.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             33   60  +24       2.04    58.80     4.37    83.73     4.98    33.11    33.68    81.98    99.14    87.28P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        33   58  +22       2.52    61.46     7.26    79.75     4.83    27.69    10.40    51.86    96.07    64.60P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   56  +19      -1.24    43.85     1.16    79.53     4.89    27.44    10.04    50.39    95.43    64.93P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   54  +18       6.47    76.99    14.85    72.11     4.91    18.51     0.49     7.05    58.09    16.34P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   53  +17       0.12    50.59     5.68    72.64     4.95    19.63     0.79     8.47    62.83    22.21P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         33   52  +11       1.04    54.77     2.66    72.02     4.99    14.25     0.43     5.76    56.05    17.27P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           32   51  +11       0.61    52.59     1.44    72.54     5.14    14.42     0.60     7.21    59.20    20.40P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        33   48   -4       4.25    69.66    -1.73    64.83     4.84    -5.44     0.01     0.18     8.51     1.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           32   46  +11      -6.58    22.39    -2.00    68.18     5.19    15.34     0.07     1.63    29.44     9.59P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         32   46   +5       2.31    60.80     5.38    63.76     5.13     2.81     0.00     0.18     7.62     1.52P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   46   -2       5.15    73.57     4.03    61.80     4.80    -4.79     0.00     0.02     2.75     0.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe            33   46   -3       3.72    67.37     1.71    63.99     4.90    -2.70     0.00     0.09     6.22     1.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          32   46   -3       0.91    54.75    -4.88    66.64     5.13    -1.06     0.01     0.44    16.28     3.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   31   43  -10       5.16    73.96    -2.64    60.89     5.25   -14.14     0.00     0.03     2.42     0.40P    0.07R    0.01  
Northampton      33   39   -4      -6.77    22.25    -4.68    57.37     4.94    -3.30     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P    0.33R    0.06  
Crawley_Town     33   38  -10      -1.81    42.33    -1.79    54.06     4.76   -12.63     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.70R    0.35  
Cambridge_Utd    32   36  -21      -0.99    45.99   -11.00    51.91     4.94   -25.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.95R    1.58  
Cheltenham       32   35  -13      -3.07    36.30    -3.61    51.88     5.06   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.49R    1.36  
Port_Vale        32   33  -12      -5.50    25.43    -4.87    49.70     4.89   -15.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.95R    3.28  
Morecambe        32   32  -17      -2.65    37.80    -3.29    47.92     4.91   -21.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.86R    7.66  
Yeovil           33   30  -14      -7.38    18.68    -2.44    45.64     4.73   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.90R   13.29  
Macclesfield     33   29  -21      -2.25    40.31     0.66    41.34     4.53   -29.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.02R   49.37  
Notts_County     32   28  -28      -8.45    14.98   -15.85    44.55     5.03   -32.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.72R   23.03  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 February 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 1 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Solihull_Moors     34   64  +23      13.05    93.11    16.42    82.85     4.69    26.63    25.11    89.06    38.20P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            33   62  +17      10.71    89.49     8.05    81.93     4.77    20.26    17.89    83.30    34.15P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      33   61  +29       3.43    65.41    11.05    83.40     4.87    35.76    34.54    90.69    52.54P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          33   57  +24       1.24    55.32     8.42    79.87     4.87    31.52    11.62    74.19    30.84P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       33   57  +22       5.54    72.96    12.56    77.39     5.10    25.83     5.41    53.92    16.62P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          34   55  +11       3.35    64.83     3.33    72.36     4.69    12.44     0.33    15.37     3.94P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      32   55   +7       8.12    82.94     2.45    75.98     5.11     9.86     2.65    37.82     9.97P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          33   55   +0      11.00    89.68     1.67    72.12     4.87    -1.01     0.29    13.23     2.50P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     32   53  +17       5.04    71.21    11.02    74.47     5.29    20.57     2.00    31.16     8.32P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   50  +13       0.03    50.24     5.77    70.73     4.95    17.28     0.15    10.03     2.55P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             33   45   -1       1.93    59.44     1.45    61.55     4.80    -2.45     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.16R    0.00  
Bromley            33   44   +0      -2.68    38.19    -2.24    61.73     4.99    -0.22     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.18R    0.00  
Hartlepool         33   43   -4      -1.07    45.57    -2.62    59.19     4.84    -6.22     0.00     0.04     0.02P    0.75R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          33   39   -4      -7.30    19.94    -5.87    57.32     5.00    -3.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.68R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       33   39   -8      -5.13    27.42    -7.20    55.19     4.81   -10.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.43R    0.01  
Maidenhead         33   37  -20       0.33    52.43    -6.94    51.04     4.74   -26.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.87R    0.15  
Chesterfield       32   36   -6     -10.38    11.37    -9.98    57.05     5.19    -3.11     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.42R    0.01  
Halifax            32   36   -6      -1.55    43.15     1.53    52.13     4.85    -9.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.22R    0.06  
Barnet             28   36   -7      -5.31    25.56   -11.63    62.44     6.11    -4.30     0.01     0.96     0.30P    0.80R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     34   36  -16      -8.09    17.77   -12.55    52.53     4.65   -15.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.59R    0.06  
Havant_&_Wville    33   34  -10      -3.26    36.26     3.06    48.04     4.90   -16.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.55R    0.82  
Aldershot          33   29  -28      -8.75    14.62   -17.71    44.15     4.77   -31.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.32R    7.14  
Maidstone_United   33   26  -28      -5.71    24.29    -7.89    39.00     4.57   -35.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.08R   32.51  
Braintree_Town     33   25  -25      -5.52    25.55    -2.13    36.38     4.52   -35.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.94R   59.24