Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 18 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.46    57.59     4.56    91.71     3.49    76.00    53.81    94.59    99.90   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.54    92.99    10.42    91.50     4.10    60.90    43.83    92.13    99.83    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.48    82.92    -0.15    83.40     4.28    40.36     2.37    13.12    89.66    97.78   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.60    58.27    -4.52    73.22     4.50    25.97     0.00     0.09     4.13    42.05    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.69    69.51    -1.35    72.06     4.61    24.92     0.00     0.02     3.53    30.96    99.37     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.70    64.27    -1.89    72.00     4.47    24.56     0.00     0.03     2.95    29.21    99.38     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.53    81.63     7.37    54.81     4.58    -0.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.25     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.45    77.77     7.38    51.12     4.33    -5.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.82    30.32    -0.83    46.53     4.36    -5.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.21R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       1.99    61.51     1.84    47.69     4.32   -11.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.72    65.44     1.52    47.92     4.52   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.19R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.75    40.96     1.17    49.66     4.58    -1.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.55    26.46     0.45    41.29     4.40   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.10R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.32    43.38     1.18    39.91     4.26   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.04R    0.01  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.40    37.45    -7.12    38.62     4.23   -26.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.32R    0.01  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.60    25.43    -2.18    40.64     4.53   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.14R    0.00  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       0.93    56.87    -2.53    35.54     4.17   -33.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.47R    0.13  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.22    23.06    -4.29    37.79     4.39   -20.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.63R    0.04  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.27    21.55    -5.58    26.61     4.15   -45.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.76R   11.69  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -7.98     8.19    -5.44    19.53     3.80   -46.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   88.12  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 February 2019, Blackburn 0 1 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         33   63  +23      10.07    87.46    11.46    84.76     4.94    29.12    33.44    58.98    98.55    68.00P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       33   61  +24       6.92    78.70    10.77    82.02     4.94    28.84    16.93    36.58    95.70    50.93P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    32   61  +17      11.94    92.11     9.28    83.18     5.17    21.35    21.74    42.62    96.30    53.70P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       32   57  +24      -0.87    45.54     2.46    82.52     5.15    33.88    21.83    42.78    95.78    60.40P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   32   54  +12       2.01    59.66     0.31    77.87     5.03    18.60     3.59    10.80    80.21    31.39P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   53  +10       6.39    77.93     3.94    74.01     5.31    10.65     1.11     3.63    48.94    12.68P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   51   +7       2.84    63.11    -1.31    75.19     5.29    12.36     1.35     4.51    59.75    17.48P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   33   47   +8       2.14    60.20     8.74    65.56     4.94     9.14     0.00     0.02     5.59     1.05P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   46   +9       4.90    72.49    13.30    64.00     5.13     7.09     0.01     0.02     3.56     0.58P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     33   44   +4      -6.89    21.50    -4.37    64.04     5.00     7.28     0.00     0.01     3.28     0.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         33   44   +3      -3.83    33.11    -0.60    62.23     4.89     3.51     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull            32   44   +3      -1.81    42.13     0.42    63.41     5.13     3.04     0.00     0.01     2.54     0.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         32   44   +3      -4.64    29.71    -4.07    65.43     5.18     6.29     0.00     0.03     5.56     1.48P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       33   43   -7       0.74    54.09    -2.05    60.06     4.93    -8.38     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       32   41  -11      -0.05    50.31    -6.63    58.68     5.09   -13.37     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    0.04R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   +7      -6.78    21.07     0.88    62.35     5.40     9.66     0.00     0.01     2.12     0.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Stoke           33   40   -7      -5.75    25.47    -7.83    58.18     4.92    -6.28     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.05P    0.05R    0.00  
QPR             31   39   -8       1.42    57.52     0.16    57.03     5.20   -12.24     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.21R    0.00  
Wigan           32   34  -14      -6.26    23.20    -8.80    51.95     5.06   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.38R    0.03  
Millwall        31   31  -11      -7.82    16.84    -5.63    48.38     5.18   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.32R    0.20  
Reading         33   29  -15      -7.71    17.64    -1.67    43.32     4.73   -20.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.23R    2.03  
Rotherham       33   29  -20      -3.99    32.27    -0.27    40.60     4.50   -30.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.87R    5.70  
Bolton          33   26  -30      -2.60    38.02    -5.19    37.24     4.32   -39.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.48R   23.84  
Ipswich         33   20  -31     -13.56     3.70   -13.30    32.82     4.53   -38.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.39R   68.20  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 February 2019, Barnsley 2 1 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                33   71  +38      10.71    89.10    15.22    96.14     4.82    49.15    73.69    94.64   100.00    96.41P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             32   65  +31       4.88    71.14     6.38    90.75     5.15    40.66    19.90    67.91    99.94    79.23P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           32   60  +19       9.74    87.12     9.69    82.36     5.19    23.68     0.97     8.13    95.47    27.19P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           31   59  +23       2.94    62.98     2.70    86.34     5.34    33.19     5.27    27.33    98.96    52.28P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             33   56  +15       4.02    67.89     5.27    77.21     4.95    19.91     0.06     0.87    80.15    19.21P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   53  +19       4.35    69.33     9.90    76.07     5.41    22.61     0.12     1.05    72.68    15.96P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         33   52   +7       2.92    63.30     1.62    72.11     5.02    10.36     0.00     0.06    35.93     6.74P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            32   48   +6       2.57    62.28     3.36    67.52     5.12     6.61     0.00     0.01    11.41     2.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             33   46   -1       4.08    68.37     3.11    60.93     4.75    -5.14     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.12P    0.40R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       33   45   +8      -2.78    37.59     4.36    63.87     4.93     9.55     0.00     0.00     3.34     0.61P    0.07R    0.00  
Wycombe              33   43   -5       3.88    67.86     4.72    59.16     4.94    -7.58     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.05P    1.84R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        32   42   +2      -3.71    33.70    -0.72    59.41     5.11    -0.64     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    1.32R    0.02  
Southend             33   40   -1      -4.99    28.35    -0.38    57.84     4.96    -1.02     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    2.94R    0.07  
Scunthorpe           33   40  -17      -2.95    37.17   -12.93    57.82     5.00   -17.10     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    4.61R    0.13  
Plymouth             33   38  -13      -2.17    40.83    -4.99    52.74     4.79   -17.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.08R    1.05  
Accrington_Stanley   30   37  -11       3.20    66.12    -0.52    55.25     5.40   -16.36     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.00P   12.39R    0.63  
Gillingham           32   36  -11      -2.62    38.45    -2.52    52.84     5.09   -14.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.15R    1.49  
Walsall              33   35  -19      -2.20    40.61    -6.67    48.96     4.75   -24.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.64R    6.01  
Rochdale             32   34  -25      -0.99    46.40   -10.32    49.69     5.01   -30.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.00R    6.39  
Bristol_Rovers       31   33   -4      -7.08    19.70    -0.54    51.24     5.26    -7.34     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   30.31R    2.95  
Oxford_Utd           32   33  -10      -7.02    20.67    -3.81    51.58     5.16   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.62R    2.52  
Shrewsbury           32   33  -10      -8.39    15.69    -6.69    52.10     5.13   -10.09     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    25.00R    1.91  
Bradford             33   33  -16      -7.02    20.78    -7.93    48.56     4.85   -19.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.00R    7.55  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   26  -25      -6.07    22.16    -8.31    40.67     4.84   -31.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.65R   69.26  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 February 2019, Cambridge_Utd 0 0 Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     32   62  +24       8.17    83.35     9.28    85.15     5.09    29.99    44.04    85.21    99.53    88.97P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             33   60  +24       2.31    59.88     4.82    83.69     4.97    33.01    33.10    81.90    99.21    87.12P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        33   58  +22       2.39    60.70     7.10    79.74     4.85    27.70    10.52    51.35    95.96    65.01P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          33   56  +19      -1.13    44.42     1.31    79.49     4.89    27.42     9.80    49.93    95.37    64.65P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     33   54  +18       6.44    77.33    14.82    72.06     4.90    18.42     0.56     6.67    57.75    15.71P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       33   53  +17      -0.05    49.78     5.42    72.70     4.94    19.74     0.79     8.89    63.11    22.58P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         33   52  +11       1.11    55.05     2.67    71.99     5.00    14.23     0.41     5.56    55.71    17.12P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           32   51  +11       0.39    51.86     1.11    72.66     5.16    14.59     0.65     7.87    59.92    20.77P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        33   48   -4       4.11    68.83    -1.97    64.88     4.87    -5.39     0.01     0.21     8.79     1.58P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           32   46  +11      -6.60    22.13    -2.02    68.13     5.16    15.27     0.09     1.63    28.88     9.28P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         32   46   +5       2.16    60.10     5.17    63.81     5.10     2.93     0.01     0.16     7.63     1.57P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby          33   46   -2       5.06    73.13     3.93    61.91     4.82    -4.67     0.00     0.01     2.90     0.44P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            33   46   -3       3.76    67.45     1.76    63.96     4.90    -2.73     0.00     0.08     6.44     1.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          32   46   -3       1.19    55.83    -4.44    66.52     5.11    -1.20     0.02     0.50    15.93     3.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   31   43  -10       5.27    74.21    -2.49    60.88     5.28   -14.17     0.00     0.03     2.48     0.34P    0.07R    0.01  
Northampton      33   39   -4      -6.94    21.65    -4.91    57.41     4.95    -3.25     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P    0.30R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     33   38  -10      -1.57    43.25    -1.44    53.96     4.77   -12.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.86R    0.37  
Cambridge_Utd    32   36  -21      -1.10    45.44   -11.15    51.95     4.90   -25.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.71R    1.48  
Cheltenham       32   35  -13      -3.03    36.31    -3.63    51.83     5.08   -16.74     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.54R    1.36  
Port_Vale        32   33  -12      -5.45    25.41    -4.83    49.78     4.89   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.46R    3.11  
Morecambe        32   32  -17      -2.80    36.94    -3.48    47.97     4.94   -21.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.41R    7.49  
Yeovil           33   30  -14      -7.16    19.62    -2.10    45.55     4.75   -17.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.42R   13.53  
Macclesfield     33   29  -21      -2.27    40.19     0.65    41.35     4.52   -29.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.94R   48.87  
Notts_County     32   28  -28      -8.24    15.72   -15.56    44.45     5.04   -32.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.29R   23.74  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 February 2019, AFC_Fylde 0 1 Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Solihull_Moors     34   64  +23      12.95    92.81    16.33    82.83     4.70    26.63    25.25    88.90    38.56P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            33   62  +17      10.88    89.97     8.34    81.90     4.78    20.21    18.22    82.88    34.18P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      33   61  +29       3.63    66.06    11.29    83.35     4.89    35.68    34.22    90.50    52.02P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          33   57  +24       1.36    55.95     8.59    79.82     4.87    31.47    11.46    73.71    30.54P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       33   57  +22       5.28    72.24    12.15    77.50     5.11    25.97     5.63    54.76    17.17P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          34   55  +11       3.35    65.03     3.33    72.38     4.67    12.45     0.32    15.56     3.89P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      32   55   +7       8.12    82.93     2.42    75.99     5.12     9.87     2.51    38.26    10.06P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          33   55   +0      11.06    89.93     1.69    72.20     4.86    -0.96     0.33    13.55     2.48P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     32   53  +17       5.28    72.04    11.39    74.40     5.35    20.44     1.92    31.23     8.34P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   33   50  +13       0.23    51.06     6.11    70.61     4.93    17.12     0.11     9.59     2.48P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             33   45   -1       1.86    59.18     1.29    61.61     4.83    -2.35     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.20R    0.00  
Bromley            33   44   +0      -2.80    37.80    -2.37    61.75     4.98    -0.21     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.21R    0.00  
Hartlepool         33   43   -4      -1.15    45.04    -2.75    59.20     4.86    -6.15     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.82R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          33   39   -4      -7.36    19.77    -5.95    57.32     4.99    -3.31     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.55R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       33   39   -8      -4.98    28.08    -7.02    55.17     4.82   -10.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.63R    0.00  
Maidenhead         33   37  -20       0.37    52.50    -6.89    50.99     4.74   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.14R    0.13  
Chesterfield       32   36   -6     -10.24    11.57    -9.81    56.96     5.23    -3.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.68R    0.01  
Halifax            32   36   -6      -1.72    42.19     1.36    52.20     4.87    -9.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.62R    0.04  
Barnet             28   36   -7      -5.32    25.24   -11.66    62.49     6.01    -4.19     0.01     0.77     0.22P    0.85R    0.00  
Dover_Athletic     34   36  -16      -8.14    17.47   -12.60    52.53     4.68   -15.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.74R    0.07  
Havant_&_Wville    33   34  -10      -3.39    35.83     2.82    48.15     4.93   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.65R    0.81  
Aldershot          33   29  -28      -8.71    14.28   -17.58    44.02     4.75   -31.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.99R    7.52  
Maidstone_United   33   26  -28      -5.85    23.76    -8.08    39.03     4.59   -35.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.96R   33.04  
Braintree_Town     33   25  -25      -5.65    24.92    -2.40    36.45     4.52   -34.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.96R   58.36