Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 17 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.45    57.64     4.54    91.71     3.50    75.97    53.25    94.65    99.92    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.43    93.01    10.19    91.56     4.08    61.07    44.34    92.25    99.80    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.53    82.70    -0.17    83.39     4.27    40.36     2.41    12.94    89.80    97.75   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.69    58.69    -4.33    73.17     4.49    25.87     0.00     0.07     4.09    42.09    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.77    69.81    -1.22    72.08     4.64    24.91     0.00     0.03     3.52    31.66    99.40     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.77    64.66    -1.81    71.92     4.46    24.46     0.00     0.05     2.87    28.51    99.35     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.68    82.20     7.55    54.78     4.59    -0.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.29     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.24    77.04     7.09    51.18     4.33    -5.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.84    30.30    -0.86    46.57     4.37    -5.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.23R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       2.06    62.00     1.95    47.64     4.34   -11.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.83    66.03     1.74    47.87     4.53   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.17R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.87    40.41     1.01    49.65     4.59    -1.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.04R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.58    26.06     0.36    41.27     4.40   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.27R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.35    43.12     1.10    39.90     4.23   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.82R    0.00  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.47    36.78    -7.24    38.69     4.24   -26.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.15R    0.01  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.58    25.68    -2.13    40.66     4.56   -13.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.16R    0.01  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       1.04    57.62    -2.35    35.52     4.15   -33.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.73R    0.11  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.16    23.36    -4.14    37.75     4.37   -20.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.87R    0.04  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.35    21.36    -5.63    26.68     4.16   -45.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.50R   11.41  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -8.02     8.14    -5.63    19.54     3.80   -46.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.94R   88.41  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 13 February 2019, Brentford 1 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    32   61  +17      12.00    92.07     9.36    83.15     5.20    21.29    28.69    51.23    96.70    60.70P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         32   60  +19      10.07    87.96     9.99    83.17     5.17    25.08    29.75    53.90    96.77    63.20P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       32   58  +20       7.02    79.46     9.41    80.70     5.13    25.26    16.08    34.98    92.76    48.79P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       31   54  +22      -1.74    41.37     1.61    80.58     5.40    31.45    18.22    37.20    91.66    55.49P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   53  +10       6.35    77.76     3.92    74.07     5.29    10.70     1.78     5.30    52.75    15.15P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   31   51  +11       0.87    54.26     0.04    76.17     5.32    17.54     3.29    10.16    70.79    27.82P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   51   +7       2.70    62.84    -1.52    75.17     5.32    12.32     2.13     6.81    61.80    20.29P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   46   +9       5.06    73.09    13.52    63.94     5.12     6.96     0.01     0.04     4.11     0.70P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   46   +8       2.10    60.23     8.28    65.76     5.14     8.84     0.01     0.10     7.60     1.57P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     32   44   +6      -6.37    22.70    -3.70    65.69     5.19     9.70     0.02     0.14     7.82     2.07P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            32   44   +3      -1.75    42.19     0.49    63.42     5.13     3.08     0.00     0.02     3.24     0.68P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         32   44   +3      -4.62    29.84    -4.01    65.44     5.20     6.29     0.02     0.09     6.62     1.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         32   43   +3      -3.34    35.00    -0.42    62.94     5.14     4.00     0.00     0.02     2.61     0.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       32   43   -6       1.41    56.74    -2.08    61.40     5.16    -7.39     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   +7      -6.89    21.12     0.74    62.45     5.41     9.79     0.00     0.02     2.79     0.68P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   40  -11       0.45    52.90    -6.48    59.09     5.31   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.07P    0.11R    0.00  
Stoke           32   39   -7      -5.31    26.98    -7.62    58.77     5.15    -5.99     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.07P    0.15R    0.00  
QPR             31   39   -8       1.53    57.91     0.34    57.09     5.18   -12.18     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.31R    0.00  
Wigan           32   34  -14      -6.27    22.96    -8.88    51.90     5.05   -15.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.32R    0.04  
Millwall        31   31  -11      -7.76    17.16    -5.50    48.39     5.19   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.00R    0.24  
Reading         32   29  -11      -8.02    16.49    -0.42    44.58     4.91   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.48R    1.61  
Rotherham       32   28  -20      -3.58    33.97    -0.29    40.83     4.76   -30.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.62R    7.23  
Bolton          32   26  -26      -2.55    37.82    -3.38    38.43     4.54   -35.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.40R   19.24  
Ipswich         32   19  -31     -13.28     3.86   -13.40    32.94     4.77   -39.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.59R   71.64  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 February 2019, Doncaster 3 0 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                32   68  +37       9.67    87.15    15.04    94.72     5.06    48.47    65.93    89.77   100.00    93.08P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             31   62  +30       3.88    67.14     6.35    89.90     5.34    40.87    21.03    60.14    99.86    74.44P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           31   59  +19      10.44    89.35    10.18    82.75     5.37    23.65     1.95    10.23    95.92    28.45P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           30   58  +23       3.86    67.66     3.55    87.50     5.54    34.35    10.76    37.27    99.33    58.29P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             32   55  +15       4.36    69.61     5.19    77.93     5.16    20.48     0.17     1.42    83.34    20.58P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   53  +19       4.38    69.53     9.90    76.05     5.37    22.54     0.16     1.12    74.31    16.06P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         32   49   +6       1.46    56.73     0.88    70.57     5.25     9.52     0.00     0.04    26.39     5.21P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            31   47   +6       2.66    62.76     3.06    67.56     5.28     6.15     0.00     0.01    12.48     2.28P    0.02R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   45   +9      -1.79    41.92     4.73    65.07     5.17    10.30     0.00     0.00     5.71     1.18P    0.06R    0.00  
Wycombe              32   43   -4       4.82    71.87     4.90    59.71     5.11    -7.92     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.07P    1.82R    0.02  
Coventry             32   43   -4       3.69    67.37     1.89    58.98     4.96    -8.54     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P    2.17R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        31   41   +2      -3.52    34.39    -0.97    59.79     5.35    -0.63     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.17P    1.67R    0.02  
Scunthorpe           32   40  -16      -1.91    41.64   -12.38    59.37     5.25   -15.89     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.09P    3.19R    0.08  
Southend             32   39   -1      -4.71    29.21    -0.56    58.07     5.15    -1.24     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    3.34R    0.07  
Plymouth             32   37  -13      -1.89    41.77    -4.94    52.96     5.02   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    23.47R    1.34  
Accrington_Stanley   29   36  -11       3.50    67.97    -0.73    54.66     5.54   -17.80     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P   16.46R    0.97  
Walsall              32   35  -16      -1.97    41.22    -5.41    50.53     4.98   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   40.82R    3.54  
Rochdale             32   34  -25      -1.00    46.16   -10.29    49.74     4.99   -30.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.22R    6.45  
Bristol_Rovers       31   33   -4      -7.26    18.80    -0.78    51.29     5.24    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    31.22R    3.01  
Oxford_Utd           31   33   -9      -6.09    23.28    -3.40    53.08     5.39    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   21.77R    1.65  
Gillingham           31   33  -12      -4.19    31.14    -3.33    51.16     5.32   -16.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    34.80R    3.67  
Shrewsbury           31   32  -10      -7.90    16.67    -6.46    52.46     5.33   -10.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    24.73R    2.13  
Bradford             32   32  -16      -6.65    21.73    -7.84    49.13     5.07   -19.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.14R    6.99  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   26  -25      -6.22    21.65    -8.59    40.68     4.82   -31.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.10R   70.05  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 February 2019, Crewe 2 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     31   61  +24       9.05    86.17    10.06    86.04     5.30    30.72    51.61    87.29    99.52    90.37P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        32   58  +23       3.62    66.75     7.76    81.76     5.03    29.64    19.10    66.36    97.72    75.59P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             32   57  +23       0.95    53.77     4.08    81.77     5.21    31.67    19.40    67.68    97.26    76.21P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   53  +18      -2.39    38.76     0.90    77.78     5.16    26.21     5.63    35.04    89.01    52.61P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   52  +17       0.22    51.23     5.25    73.68     5.15    20.60     1.19    11.79    67.66    25.67P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         32   52  +12       2.02    59.34     3.03    73.55     5.22    15.52     1.02    10.82    64.38    22.89P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     32   51  +15       6.32    77.45    13.97    70.42     5.10    15.44     0.26     3.80    41.42    10.08P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           31   51  +12       1.62    57.88     1.89    74.15     5.40    15.78     1.57    13.21    68.19    26.53P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        32   47   -4       4.23    69.58    -2.34    64.59     5.02    -6.36     0.00     0.22     7.63     1.49P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          32   46   -3       1.04    55.20    -4.68    66.54     5.10    -1.18     0.00     0.47    14.32     3.23P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           31   45  +11      -5.93    24.37    -1.59    69.11     5.44    16.26     0.19     2.87    34.11    11.77P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   45   +5       2.68    62.70     5.46    64.09     5.39     2.73     0.01     0.27     8.47     1.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe            32   45   -3       3.89    68.23     1.42    63.70     5.10    -3.73     0.00     0.11     5.83     1.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          32   43   -3       3.96    68.93     3.73    60.38     5.04    -5.55     0.00     0.01     1.52     0.23P    0.03R    0.01  
Newport_County   31   43  -10       5.13    74.05    -2.72    60.91     5.30   -14.12     0.00     0.04     2.25     0.34P    0.03R    0.00  
Northampton      32   38   -4      -6.51    23.36    -4.74    58.28     5.23    -2.54     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.14P    0.22R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     32   37  -10      -1.51    43.48    -1.74    53.97     4.96   -13.39     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.76R    0.36  
Cheltenham       31   35  -12      -2.19    40.09    -3.37    53.17     5.26   -15.80     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    3.17R    0.73  
Cambridge_Utd    31   35  -21      -0.98    46.00   -11.35    52.49     5.15   -25.67     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    4.37R    1.07  
Port_Vale        31   33  -11      -4.38    29.76    -4.17    51.63     5.16   -13.73     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     5.16R    1.32  
Yeovil           32   30  -11      -6.98    19.87    -0.89    46.81     4.97   -14.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.60R    7.21  
Morecambe        31   29  -18      -4.11    30.54    -3.88    45.83     5.11   -23.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.07R   12.69  
Macclesfield     32   28  -21      -2.14    40.53     0.42    41.21     4.72   -30.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.17R   41.82  
Notts_County     31   25  -29      -9.92    10.53   -16.48    42.37     5.25   -34.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.42R   34.75  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 February 2019, Aldershot 0 3 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Solihull_Moors     33   63  +23      13.35    93.88    16.32    83.40     4.87    26.93    19.83    87.52    33.99P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      32   61  +30       5.07    72.56    12.41    85.77     5.07    38.30    43.20    93.96    59.40P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            32   59  +16       9.59    87.91     7.77    80.50     4.99    19.56     7.77    68.93    22.70P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          32   57  +25       2.42    60.87     9.05    81.85     5.06    33.47    14.92    80.72    35.47P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       32   57  +24       6.18    75.68    13.43    79.74     5.33    29.29     8.18    65.53    21.95P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      31   55   +8       9.46    86.92     3.39    77.81     5.30    11.51     3.50    46.15    12.31P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     31   53  +18       6.08    75.60    11.41    76.07     5.52    21.94     2.39    37.19     9.79P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   52   +9       2.40    61.09     2.31    70.36     4.91     9.93     0.06     6.87     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          32   52   -1      10.15    88.25     1.83    71.05     5.04    -1.23     0.11     7.59     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   47  +12      -1.22    44.44     5.31    68.86     5.18    15.91     0.04     4.63     1.23P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             32   42   -2       0.32    51.88     0.60    59.57     4.99    -3.94     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.60R    0.00  
Bromley            32   41   -2      -3.62    33.74    -3.15    60.50     5.17    -1.66     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.38R    0.00  
Hartlepool         32   40   -8      -1.16    45.11    -4.35    56.66     4.99   -11.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.60R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          32   39   -2      -6.70    21.58    -5.02    59.16     5.19    -0.65     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.97R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   39   -4      -5.05    27.18    -5.00    57.42     5.10    -4.78     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.74R    0.00  
Halifax            31   35   -6      -1.23    44.42     1.65    52.78     5.05    -9.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.46R    0.10  
Barnet             27   35   -7      -4.92    26.60   -11.62    62.58     6.16    -4.62     0.00     0.79     0.20P    0.60R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    32   34   -9      -2.29    40.40     3.41    49.11     5.08   -15.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.35R    0.93  
Maidenhead         32   34  -21      -1.37    44.10    -7.94    48.35     4.88   -28.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.75R    1.27  
Chesterfield       31   33   -7     -11.90     7.68   -10.83    54.69     5.41    -5.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.47R    0.10  
Dover_Athletic     33   33  -18      -9.12    14.01   -13.72    50.09     4.87   -19.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.47R    0.57  
Aldershot          32   28  -28      -8.41    14.85   -17.44    44.21     4.98   -32.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.94R    9.77  
Maidstone_United   32   26  -26      -5.54    24.89    -7.68    40.12     4.78   -33.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.98R   29.90  
Braintree_Town     32   25  -24      -4.78    28.33    -2.14    37.25     4.74   -34.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.68R   57.34