Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 16 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.46    57.42     4.56    91.73     3.47    76.02    53.56    94.76    99.90   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.53    93.23    10.45    91.50     4.10    60.94    43.96    92.09    99.80    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.38    82.36    -0.32    83.48     4.24    40.44     2.47    13.02    90.36    97.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.71    58.97    -4.35    73.13     4.50    25.81     0.00     0.08     3.97    41.82    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.81    70.08    -1.16    72.00     4.59    24.82     0.00     0.01     3.16    30.75    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.72    64.35    -1.86    71.96     4.48    24.52     0.00     0.04     2.82    29.49    99.47     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.68    82.12     7.52    54.75     4.58    -0.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.11     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.25    76.81     7.07    51.16     4.32    -5.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.77    30.66    -0.71    46.53     4.38    -5.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.24R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       1.94    61.16     1.75    47.70     4.35   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.12R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.70    65.14     1.53    47.92     4.54   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.78    40.94     1.15    49.66     4.60    -1.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.36    27.26     0.66    41.23     4.42   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.26R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.22    44.13     1.28    39.92     4.23   -17.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.07R    0.00  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.43    37.22    -7.18    38.67     4.22   -26.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.89R    0.01  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.72    25.01    -2.38    40.68     4.57   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.18R    0.01  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       1.07    57.86    -2.37    35.54     4.15   -33.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.54R    0.10  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.23    23.04    -4.26    37.75     4.38   -20.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.87R    0.03  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.41    20.98    -5.69    26.67     4.13   -45.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.68R   11.41  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -8.04     8.03    -5.67    19.54     3.80   -46.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   88.44  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 13 February 2019, Brentford 1 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    32   61  +17      11.98    92.02     9.39    83.10     5.23    21.25    28.52    50.77    96.48    60.31P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         32   60  +19       9.92    87.40     9.75    83.21     5.17    25.15    29.94    54.36    96.94    63.82P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       32   58  +20       7.07    79.43     9.50    80.68     5.13    25.22    16.11    35.04    92.66    48.86P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       31   54  +22      -1.70    41.41     1.73    80.54     5.41    31.38    18.14    36.91    91.61    54.90P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   53  +10       6.51    78.17     4.14    74.05     5.35    10.68     1.84     5.58    52.25    15.06P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   31   51  +11       0.76    53.84    -0.11    76.14     5.27    17.52     3.13     9.96    71.23    28.33P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   51   +7       2.79    63.09    -1.41    75.17     5.33    12.35     2.27     6.96    62.07    20.22P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   46   +9       5.05    73.27    13.48    63.95     5.13     6.96     0.00     0.06     4.04     0.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   46   +8       2.23    60.48     8.47    65.69     5.18     8.72     0.02     0.10     7.55     1.55P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     32   44   +6      -6.32    23.14    -3.59    65.73     5.24     9.72     0.02     0.13     8.13     2.24P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            32   44   +3      -1.73    42.07     0.52    63.49     5.14     3.16     0.01     0.03     3.33     0.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         32   44   +3      -4.53    30.07    -3.89    65.42     5.14     6.26     0.01     0.07     6.39     1.65P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         32   43   +3      -3.36    34.78    -0.45    63.00     5.12     4.09     0.00     0.01     2.68     0.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       32   43   -6       1.37    56.82    -2.14    61.40     5.16    -7.39     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   +7      -6.75    21.43     0.99    62.40     5.39     9.72     0.00     0.02     2.67     0.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   40  -11       0.40    52.58    -6.56    59.13     5.30   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.06P    0.10R    0.00  
Stoke           32   39   -7      -5.40    26.50    -7.81    58.79     5.15    -5.93     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    0.14R    0.00  
QPR             31   39   -8       1.37    57.13     0.08    57.07     5.22   -12.16     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P    0.34R    0.00  
Wigan           32   34  -14      -6.19    23.46    -8.69    51.90     5.08   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.52R    0.05  
Millwall        31   31  -11      -7.70    17.29    -5.41    48.33     5.21   -15.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.37R    0.31  
Reading         32   29  -11      -7.99    16.56    -0.33    44.56     4.94   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.15R    1.69  
Rotherham       32   28  -20      -3.82    32.66    -0.68    40.94     4.75   -30.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.63R    6.95  
Bolton          32   26  -26      -2.56    38.08    -3.41    38.39     4.58   -35.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.11R   19.45  
Ipswich         32   19  -31     -13.38     3.84   -13.56    32.98     4.74   -39.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.59R   71.55  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 February 2019, Doncaster 3 0 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                32   68  +37       9.50    86.35    14.83    94.80     5.07    48.59    66.24    89.92    99.99    93.37P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             31   62  +30       3.84    67.13     6.28    89.88     5.32    40.82    20.61    59.58    99.86    74.13P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           31   59  +19      10.08    88.46     9.64    82.91     5.38    23.90     2.14    10.75    96.21    29.56P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           30   58  +23       3.81    67.24     3.51    87.54     5.52    34.44    10.74    37.03    99.28    58.59P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             32   55  +15       4.55    70.28     5.44    77.86     5.18    20.35     0.14     1.53    83.21    20.31P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   53  +19       4.38    69.66     9.95    76.05     5.43    22.59     0.12     1.14    74.21    15.50P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         32   49   +6       1.65    57.62     1.21    70.45     5.23     9.25     0.00     0.04    25.70     4.71P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            31   47   +6       2.70    63.30     3.11    67.62     5.28     6.25     0.00     0.01    12.77     2.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   45   +9      -2.05    40.82     4.40    65.15     5.15    10.39     0.00     0.00     6.00     1.16P    0.05R    0.00  
Wycombe              32   43   -4       4.60    71.07     4.61    59.74     5.11    -7.88     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.08P    1.80R    0.01  
Coventry             32   43   -4       3.91    68.13     2.15    58.88     4.93    -8.69     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.05P    2.27R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        31   41   +2      -3.58    33.73    -1.06    59.82     5.32    -0.59     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.16P    1.50R    0.01  
Scunthorpe           32   40  -16      -1.74    42.29   -12.20    59.31     5.24   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.07P    3.21R    0.06  
Southend             32   39   -1      -4.68    29.39    -0.54    58.01     5.17    -1.29     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    3.66R    0.09  
Plymouth             32   37  -13      -1.77    42.27    -4.79    52.90     5.01   -18.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    23.67R    1.25  
Accrington_Stanley   29   36  -11       3.42    67.50    -0.85    54.66     5.55   -17.79     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   16.56R    1.06  
Walsall              32   35  -16      -2.00    41.34    -5.46    50.55     4.97   -21.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    40.40R    3.63  
Rochdale             32   34  -25      -1.02    45.98   -10.33    49.72     4.99   -30.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.87R    6.69  
Bristol_Rovers       31   33   -4      -6.94    20.04    -0.32    51.18     5.25    -7.38     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    32.14R    3.15  
Oxford_Utd           31   33   -9      -5.99    23.78    -3.26    53.06     5.37    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   21.93R    1.71  
Gillingham           31   33  -12      -4.19    31.27    -3.32    51.19     5.30   -15.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   34.43R    3.66  
Shrewsbury           31   32  -10      -8.09    16.41    -6.74    52.55     5.36    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    24.31R    1.91  
Bradford             32   32  -16      -6.61    21.63    -7.73    49.10     5.09   -19.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.28R    7.06  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   26  -25      -6.15    21.74    -8.52    40.72     4.84   -31.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.91R   69.72  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 February 2019, Crewe 2 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     31   61  +24       8.90    85.72     9.82    86.10     5.31    30.84    51.90    87.42    99.51    90.48P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        32   58  +23       3.75    67.24     7.93    81.69     5.05    29.57    18.50    65.92    97.55    75.09P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             32   57  +23       0.99    54.11     4.18    81.78     5.24    31.67    19.51    67.63    97.30    76.16P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   53  +18      -2.57    37.92     0.59    77.82     5.12    26.31     5.79    35.26    89.45    52.98P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   52  +17       0.48    52.18     5.63    73.60     5.16    20.51     1.15    11.68    66.63    25.39P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         32   52  +12       1.86    58.57     2.79    73.61     5.21    15.60     1.04    10.68    64.74    23.08P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     32   51  +15       5.97    76.08    13.47    70.57     5.10    15.61     0.25     3.95    42.39    10.58P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           31   51  +12       1.64    57.85     1.87    74.14     5.38    15.79     1.59    13.36    67.67    26.65P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        32   47   -4       4.18    69.16    -2.42    64.64     5.02    -6.29     0.00     0.23     7.62     1.35P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          32   46   -3       1.11    55.57    -4.56    66.51     5.13    -1.22     0.02     0.50    14.35     3.17P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           31   45  +11      -5.92    24.37    -1.63    69.14     5.42    16.29     0.22     2.89    33.85    11.45P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   45   +5       2.80    63.31     5.66    64.08     5.42     2.70     0.02     0.30     8.58     1.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe            32   45   -3       3.81    67.94     1.33    63.73     5.11    -3.68     0.00     0.11     5.93     1.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          32   43   -3       4.10    69.55     3.96    60.29     5.07    -5.68     0.00     0.01     1.47     0.22P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County   31   43  -10       5.24    74.31    -2.53    60.88     5.28   -14.18     0.00     0.04     2.16     0.34P    0.05R    0.00  
Northampton      32   38   -4      -6.66    22.51    -5.03    58.36     5.19    -2.40     0.00     0.01     0.63     0.15P    0.20R    0.02  
Crawley_Town     32   37  -10      -1.44    43.92    -1.64    53.94     4.99   -13.44     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    1.86R    0.36  
Cheltenham       31   35  -12      -2.17    40.17    -3.37    53.12     5.26   -15.88     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    3.10R    0.65  
Cambridge_Utd    31   35  -21      -0.75    47.25   -10.98    52.40     5.14   -25.78     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    4.59R    1.11  
Port_Vale        31   33  -11      -4.37    29.96    -4.13    51.68     5.17   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.10R    1.32  
Yeovil           32   30  -11      -7.16    19.29    -1.14    46.91     4.94   -14.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.49R    6.81  
Morecambe        31   29  -18      -4.15    30.63    -3.87    45.75     5.12   -23.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.75R   12.99  
Macclesfield     32   28  -21      -2.08    40.90     0.61    41.16     4.72   -30.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.68R   42.26  
Notts_County     31   25  -29      -9.94    10.70   -16.54    42.37     5.26   -34.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.16R   34.47  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 February 2019, Aldershot 0 3 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Solihull_Moors     33   63  +23      13.40    93.98    16.43    83.36     4.88    26.86    19.93    86.91    33.80P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      32   61  +30       5.06    72.47    12.34    85.75     5.04    38.29    43.07    93.98    59.20P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            32   59  +16       9.59    87.64     7.79    80.47     4.98    19.55     7.72    68.26    22.40P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          32   57  +25       2.35    60.51     8.95    81.85     5.06    33.45    14.84    80.63    35.14P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       32   57  +24       6.27    76.10    13.57    79.70     5.34    29.27     8.07    65.19    21.94P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      31   55   +8       9.35    86.78     3.24    77.90     5.31    11.59     3.62    46.62    12.71P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     31   53  +18       5.77    74.04    10.95    76.30     5.55    22.24     2.57    38.83    10.58P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   52   +9       2.30    60.49     2.19    70.39     4.92     9.93     0.04     6.85     1.58P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          32   52   -1      10.24    88.38     2.00    71.07     5.04    -1.25     0.12     7.51     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   47  +12      -1.08    45.06     5.49    68.83     5.13    15.88     0.02     4.35     1.16P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             32   42   -2       0.45    52.74     0.77    59.46     4.98    -4.06     0.00     0.02     0.01P    0.59R    0.00  
Bromley            32   41   -2      -3.35    34.98    -2.71    60.41     5.16    -1.80     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.44R    0.00  
Hartlepool         32   40   -8      -1.31    44.24    -4.61    56.73     4.97   -11.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.51R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          32   39   -2      -6.65    21.60    -4.86    59.07     5.17    -0.74     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.04R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   39   -4      -5.04    27.52    -4.99    57.35     5.06    -4.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.92R    0.00  
Halifax            31   35   -6      -1.16    45.11     1.73    52.77     5.09    -9.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.48R    0.13  
Barnet             27   35   -7      -4.97    26.26   -11.72    62.58     6.19    -4.60     0.00     0.75     0.19P    0.60R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    32   34   -9      -2.63    38.59     2.79    49.23     5.08   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.34R    0.79  
Maidenhead         32   34  -21      -1.29    44.72    -7.77    48.33     4.84   -28.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.17R    1.30  
Chesterfield       31   33   -7     -11.69     7.87   -10.52    54.61     5.40    -5.28     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.76R    0.11  
Dover_Athletic     33   33  -18      -9.13    13.94   -13.67    50.12     4.88   -18.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.37R    0.59  
Aldershot          32   28  -28      -8.61    14.60   -17.75    44.26     4.98   -31.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.88R    9.77  
Maidstone_United   32   26  -26      -5.37    24.91    -7.36    40.04     4.76   -33.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.36R   30.42  
Braintree_Town     32   25  -24      -4.86    27.94    -2.27    37.32     4.73   -34.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.53R   56.87