Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 15 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.42    57.55     4.39    91.73     3.48    76.04    53.41    94.73    99.91   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.48    93.03    10.33    91.56     4.07    61.00    44.13    92.36    99.82    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.49    82.86    -0.16    83.45     4.26    40.44     2.46    12.80    90.16    97.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.77    59.26    -4.23    73.11     4.52    25.80     0.00     0.06     3.97    41.63    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.82    70.12    -1.18    72.00     4.64    24.82     0.00     0.03     3.26    31.39    99.28     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.80    64.89    -1.76    71.90     4.49    24.42     0.00     0.02     2.87    29.12    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.34    81.00     7.07    54.91     4.60    -0.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.25     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.37    77.45     7.27    51.15     4.33    -5.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.71    31.02    -0.66    46.50     4.37    -5.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.22R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       1.95    61.35     1.82    47.67     4.33   -11.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.84    65.97     1.74    47.87     4.52   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.17R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.88    40.17     1.02    49.68     4.60    -1.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.04R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.39    27.20     0.66    41.26     4.40   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.13R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.25    43.80     1.30    39.91     4.24   -17.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.12R    0.01  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.57    36.42    -7.40    38.73     4.20   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.45R    0.00  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.64    25.27    -2.21    40.65     4.53   -13.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.15R    0.00  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       0.95    57.02    -2.58    35.57     4.17   -33.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.87R    0.12  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.21    23.11    -4.27    37.76     4.38   -20.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.92R    0.04  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.31    21.36    -5.59    26.63     4.14   -45.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.80R   11.48  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -8.04     8.44    -5.58    19.52     3.78   -46.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   88.34  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 13 February 2019, Brentford 1 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    32   61  +17      11.98    92.00     9.35    83.09     5.23    21.21    28.71    51.20    96.48    60.62P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         32   60  +19      10.05    87.74     9.97    83.12     5.20    25.04    29.29    53.86    96.81    63.28P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       32   58  +20       7.04    79.34     9.49    80.70     5.08    25.27    16.38    34.68    93.05    48.41P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       31   54  +22      -1.82    40.94     1.51    80.58     5.37    31.41    18.23    37.15    91.97    55.39P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   53  +10       6.53    78.41     4.19    73.96     5.33    10.57     1.87     5.45    51.44    14.70P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   31   51  +11       0.89    54.44     0.04    76.17     5.30    17.58     3.37    10.29    71.25    28.45P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   51   +7       2.71    62.71    -1.52    75.20     5.28    12.37     2.11     6.95    62.31    20.57P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   46   +9       4.89    72.42    13.21    64.00     5.10     7.05     0.00     0.06     4.10     0.70P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   46   +8       2.27    61.25     8.49    65.67     5.13     8.70     0.01     0.10     7.27     1.51P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     32   44   +6      -6.59    22.05    -4.01    65.78     5.23     9.85     0.02     0.12     8.37     2.32P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            32   44   +3      -1.71    42.35     0.59    63.44     5.11     3.07     0.00     0.02     3.02     0.63P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         32   44   +3      -4.56    29.88    -3.88    65.44     5.17     6.32     0.01     0.07     6.62     1.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         32   43   +3      -3.28    35.22    -0.33    62.96     5.16     4.04     0.00     0.01     2.64     0.58P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       32   43   -6       1.74    58.47    -1.53    61.24     5.14    -7.64     0.00     0.01     1.08     0.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   +7      -6.59    21.82     1.17    62.33     5.43     9.60     0.00     0.03     2.70     0.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   40  -11       0.34    52.46    -6.62    59.16     5.33   -13.14     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.09P    0.12R    0.00  
Stoke           32   39   -7      -5.43    26.62    -7.85    58.83     5.14    -5.88     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.07P    0.12R    0.00  
QPR             31   39   -8       1.59    58.26     0.40    57.01     5.22   -12.27     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.37R    0.00  
Wigan           32   34  -14      -6.19    23.44    -8.73    51.93     5.06   -15.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.39R    0.04  
Millwall        31   31  -11      -7.97    16.33    -5.78    48.45     5.21   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.08R    0.26  
Reading         32   29  -11      -8.02    16.39    -0.41    44.57     4.94   -16.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.48R    1.63  
Rotherham       32   28  -20      -3.77    32.88    -0.60    40.96     4.76   -30.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.68R    6.86  
Bolton          32   26  -26      -2.80    36.42    -3.75    38.51     4.56   -35.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.11R   19.12  
Ipswich         32   19  -31     -13.26     3.75   -13.39    32.95     4.76   -39.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.62R   72.09  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 February 2019, Doncaster 3 0 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                32   68  +37       9.48    86.48    14.78    94.77     5.07    48.54    65.90    89.61   100.00    93.03P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             31   62  +30       3.83    67.36     6.25    89.91     5.29    40.88    20.78    59.50    99.85    74.16P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           31   59  +19      10.21    88.84     9.86    82.81     5.37    23.77     2.01    10.58    96.16    29.38P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           30   58  +23       3.63    66.38     3.17    87.64     5.55    34.60    11.01    37.60    99.36    59.05P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             32   55  +15       4.48    70.12     5.35    77.91     5.21    20.44     0.17     1.57    83.13    19.98P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   53  +19       4.30    69.23     9.85    76.06     5.35    22.58     0.13     1.10    74.29    15.77P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         32   49   +6       1.64    57.58     1.16    70.51     5.25     9.38     0.00     0.03    26.08     4.95P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            31   47   +6       2.60    62.66     3.02    67.61     5.28     6.23     0.00     0.01    12.76     2.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   45   +9      -1.82    41.79     4.73    65.09     5.14    10.32     0.00     0.00     5.75     1.09P    0.06R    0.00  
Wycombe              32   43   -4       4.83    71.90     4.96    59.67     5.12    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.06P    1.87R    0.02  
Coventry             32   43   -4       3.70    67.51     1.86    58.95     4.94    -8.60     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.05P    2.23R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        31   41   +2      -3.67    33.87    -1.17    59.82     5.29    -0.59     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.13P    1.55R    0.02  
Scunthorpe           32   40  -16      -1.82    41.96   -12.30    59.35     5.22   -15.90     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.07P    3.27R    0.09  
Southend             32   39   -1      -4.58    29.88    -0.40    58.01     5.15    -1.32     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    3.43R    0.05  
Plymouth             32   37  -13      -1.81    42.24    -4.86    52.91     4.98   -18.23     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   23.32R    1.24  
Accrington_Stanley   29   36  -11       3.25    66.86    -1.14    54.76     5.51   -17.65     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   15.68R    0.94  
Walsall              32   35  -16      -1.90    41.83    -5.33    50.52     4.94   -21.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   40.50R    3.55  
Rochdale             32   34  -25      -1.07    46.07   -10.44    49.78     5.04   -30.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.94R    6.60  
Bristol_Rovers       31   33   -4      -7.08    19.73    -0.53    51.24     5.23    -7.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.81R    3.01  
Oxford_Utd           31   33   -9      -5.98    23.63    -3.22    53.04     5.38    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   21.96R    1.69  
Gillingham           31   33  -12      -4.02    31.91    -3.03    51.08     5.31   -16.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   35.19R    3.78  
Shrewsbury           31   32  -10      -8.11    16.31    -6.73    52.57     5.34    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   24.37R    1.94  
Bradford             32   32  -16      -6.46    22.35    -7.56    49.04     5.08   -19.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.71R    6.91  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   26  -25      -6.05    22.27    -8.28    40.67     4.84   -31.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.11R   70.14  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 February 2019, Crewe 2 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     31   61  +24       8.98    85.94     9.92    86.04     5.30    30.73    51.82    87.32    99.53    90.43P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        32   58  +23       3.66    66.72     7.85    81.69     5.04    29.55    18.63    65.90    97.59    75.09P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             32   57  +23       1.14    54.70     4.45    81.72     5.20    31.54    19.30    67.62    97.17    76.30P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   53  +18      -2.46    38.43     0.79    77.79     5.10    26.23     5.81    35.29    89.39    52.84P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   52  +17       0.37    51.68     5.48    73.61     5.14    20.52     1.16    11.88    66.78    25.55P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         32   52  +12       2.17    60.02     3.24    73.53     5.21    15.47     1.07    10.50    64.13    22.32P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     32   51  +15       6.10    76.53    13.64    70.55     5.07    15.56     0.29     3.98    41.92    10.62P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           31   51  +12       1.61    57.65     1.83    74.17     5.42    15.84     1.71    13.40    67.82    26.88P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        32   47   -4       4.13    69.23    -2.47    64.64     5.04    -6.28     0.01     0.23     7.76     1.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          32   46   -3       0.97    54.81    -4.73    66.56     5.13    -1.14     0.01     0.47    14.75     3.25P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           31   45  +11      -5.99    24.00    -1.70    69.13     5.44    16.26     0.18     2.95    33.98    11.59P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   45   +5       2.59    62.37     5.35    64.16     5.41     2.80     0.00     0.30     8.85     1.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe            32   45   -3       3.74    67.47     1.22    63.77     5.10    -3.67     0.00     0.08     5.90     1.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          32   43   -3       4.04    69.38     3.79    60.35     5.06    -5.58     0.00     0.03     1.51     0.26P    0.04R    0.00  
Newport_County   31   43  -10       5.20    74.16    -2.62    60.95     5.26   -14.04     0.00     0.04     2.15     0.34P    0.04R    0.00  
Northampton      32   38   -4      -6.53    22.69    -4.78    58.28     5.19    -2.53     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.12P    0.20R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     32   37  -10      -1.45    43.95    -1.67    53.98     4.99   -13.40     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.88R    0.37  
Cheltenham       31   35  -12      -2.14    40.35    -3.21    53.14     5.27   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.98R    0.63  
Cambridge_Utd    31   35  -21      -0.91    46.35   -11.25    52.44     5.19   -25.72     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.56R    1.04  
Port_Vale        31   33  -11      -4.31    29.96    -4.07    51.55     5.14   -13.81     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.45R    1.29  
Yeovil           32   30  -11      -7.04    19.87    -0.98    46.86     4.93   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.86R    6.96  
Morecambe        31   29  -18      -4.12    30.68    -3.87    45.78     5.11   -23.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.57R   12.75  
Macclesfield     32   28  -21      -2.24    39.87     0.21    41.23     4.73   -30.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.22R   42.47  
Notts_County     31   25  -29      -9.92    10.57   -16.43    42.38     5.24   -34.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.20R   34.44  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 February 2019, Aldershot 0 3 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Solihull_Moors     33   63  +23      13.42    94.01    16.43    83.35     4.87    26.79    19.78    87.40    33.53P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      32   61  +30       5.08    72.59    12.45    85.79     5.07    38.36    43.64    93.95    59.49P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            32   59  +16       9.67    88.00     7.87    80.45     4.95    19.51     7.52    68.62    22.46P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          32   57  +25       2.53    61.45     9.22    81.78     5.06    33.35    14.53    80.51    35.17P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       32   57  +24       6.16    76.03    13.39    79.75     5.32    29.34     8.22    65.66    22.47P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      31   55   +8       9.18    86.40     3.02    77.88     5.29    11.63     3.61    46.73    12.55P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     31   53  +18       6.13    75.56    11.50    76.10     5.55    21.94     2.46    37.60     9.91P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   52   +9       2.46    61.44     2.36    70.36     4.92     9.90     0.08     6.71     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          32   52   -1      10.18    88.31     1.85    71.04     5.04    -1.26     0.12     7.43     1.41P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   47  +12      -1.28    44.14     5.28    68.83     5.14    15.88     0.04     4.39     1.13P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             32   42   -2       0.43    52.57     0.75    59.55     5.01    -3.99     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.58R    0.00  
Bromley            32   41   -2      -3.40    35.01    -2.82    60.43     5.17    -1.75     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.41R    0.00  
Hartlepool         32   40   -8      -1.41    43.94    -4.76    56.76     4.98   -11.26     0.00     0.00     0.00P    2.47R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          32   39   -2      -6.62    21.99    -4.85    59.09     5.16    -0.72     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.93R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   39   -4      -5.02    27.45    -4.95    57.35     5.04    -4.84     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.80R    0.00  
Halifax            31   35   -6      -1.07    45.25     1.87    52.73     5.06    -9.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.43R    0.10  
Barnet             27   35   -7      -5.24    25.21   -12.08    62.81     6.23    -4.28     0.01     0.88     0.23P    0.64R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    32   34   -9      -2.47    39.69     3.05    49.15     5.10   -15.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.89R    0.84  
Maidenhead         32   34  -21      -1.22    45.06    -7.65    48.26     4.85   -29.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.59R    1.32  
Chesterfield       31   33   -7     -11.83     7.60   -10.74    54.71     5.38    -5.15     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.34R    0.07  
Dover_Athletic     33   33  -18      -9.13    13.98   -13.73    50.10     4.87   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.16R    0.61  
Aldershot          32   28  -28      -8.48    14.71   -17.51    44.19     4.99   -32.05     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.90R    9.81  
Maidstone_United   32   26  -26      -5.66    24.19    -7.80    40.12     4.78   -33.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.22R   29.99  
Braintree_Town     32   25  -24      -4.85    28.28    -2.16    37.30     4.72   -34.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.65R   57.25