Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 14 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.42    57.31     4.35    91.75     3.48    76.09    53.85    94.73    99.92    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.51    93.24    10.33    91.52     4.11    60.94    43.76    92.01    99.77    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.49    82.91    -0.08    83.46     4.26    40.39     2.39    13.07    89.95    97.83   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.62    58.51    -4.49    73.18     4.49    25.91     0.00     0.10     4.04    42.18    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.79    69.89    -1.19    72.03     4.61    24.89     0.00     0.05     3.42    31.03    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.75    64.63    -1.87    71.94     4.47    24.52     0.00     0.04     2.89    28.97    99.40     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.59    81.78     7.44    54.80     4.56    -0.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.12     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.32    77.29     7.10    51.17     4.32    -5.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.78    30.46    -0.70    46.55     4.37    -5.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.22R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       1.98    61.45     1.82    47.65     4.31   -11.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.86    66.24     1.83    47.82     4.53   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.15R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.86    40.36     1.04    49.67     4.62    -1.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.55    26.20     0.41    41.28     4.39   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.21R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.37    43.16     1.14    39.98     4.27   -17.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.91R    0.00  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.31    37.86    -6.98    38.61     4.25   -26.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.52R    0.01  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.65    25.36    -2.26    40.68     4.54   -13.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.96R    0.01  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       1.07    57.63    -2.38    35.53     4.18   -33.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.76R    0.10  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.22    23.23    -4.26    37.76     4.36   -20.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.59R    0.05  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.40    21.05    -5.67    26.66     4.14   -45.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.53R   11.29  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -8.05     7.99    -5.58    19.53     3.78   -46.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R   88.53  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 13 February 2019, Brentford 1 0 Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    32   61  +17      11.97    92.05     9.35    83.13     5.20    21.27    28.56    51.36    96.64    61.10P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         32   60  +19      10.13    87.99    10.07    83.11     5.16    24.99    29.20    53.33    96.75    62.84P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       32   58  +20       6.92    78.94     9.33    80.76     5.09    25.34    16.50    35.21    93.12    48.71P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       31   54  +22      -1.99    40.06     1.23    80.69     5.38    31.57    18.45    37.40    92.08    55.46P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    31   53  +10       6.62    78.74     4.31    74.00     5.35    10.59     1.77     5.55    51.55    14.82P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   31   51  +11       0.82    53.96    -0.06    76.22     5.26    17.64     3.41    10.00    71.43    28.24P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           31   51   +7       2.67    62.47    -1.56    75.18     5.29    12.35     2.05     6.75    62.03    20.59P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      32   46   +9       4.95    72.70    13.35    63.96     5.10     7.01     0.01     0.04     4.05     0.65P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   32   46   +8       2.41    61.55     8.71    65.56     5.18     8.56     0.01     0.08     7.29     1.36P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     32   44   +6      -6.27    23.14    -3.53    65.65     5.23     9.64     0.02     0.13     7.85     2.13P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            32   44   +3      -1.80    42.01     0.39    63.52     5.13     3.18     0.00     0.03     3.20     0.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         32   44   +3      -4.59    29.80    -3.95    65.47     5.18     6.32     0.01     0.08     6.57     1.70P    0.00     0.00  
Preston         32   43   +3      -3.43    34.82    -0.55    62.96     5.16     4.04     0.00     0.01     2.75     0.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       32   43   -6       1.48    57.41    -1.95    61.40     5.19    -7.38     0.00     0.01     1.17     0.20P    0.02R    0.00  
Brentford       31   40   +7      -6.94    20.18     0.63    62.40     5.38     9.75     0.01     0.02     2.66     0.67P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       31   40  -11       0.49    53.07    -6.39    59.14     5.30   -13.20     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.09P    0.11R    0.00  
Stoke           32   39   -7      -5.20    27.43    -7.51    58.72     5.13    -6.03     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.07P    0.12R    0.00  
QPR             31   39   -8       1.42    57.63     0.17    57.06     5.24   -12.19     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.33R    0.00  
Wigan           32   34  -14      -6.31    22.55    -8.87    51.96     5.06   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.48R    0.04  
Millwall        31   31  -11      -7.81    16.85    -5.56    48.39     5.22   -15.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.01R    0.27  
Reading         32   29  -11      -7.85    16.89    -0.17    44.53     4.91   -16.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.35R    1.74  
Rotherham       32   28  -20      -3.75    33.01    -0.51    40.91     4.76   -30.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.81R    7.16  
Bolton          32   26  -26      -2.61    37.32    -3.48    38.43     4.54   -35.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.15R   19.19  
Ipswich         32   19  -31     -13.31     3.81   -13.42    32.95     4.77   -39.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.60R   71.59  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 February 2019, Doncaster 3 0 Southend; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                32   68  +37       9.61    87.02    14.98    94.75     5.09    48.53    66.02    89.55   100.00    93.07P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             31   62  +30       3.92    67.49     6.41    89.87     5.36    40.78    20.62    59.65    99.84    74.14P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           31   59  +19      10.22    88.73     9.89    82.86     5.39    23.85     2.13    10.80    95.99    29.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           30   58  +23       3.79    67.15     3.41    87.55     5.59    34.43    10.94    37.37    99.25    59.02P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             32   55  +15       4.57    70.20     5.52    77.87     5.19    20.33     0.17     1.46    83.01    19.99P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            31   53  +19       4.32    69.31     9.83    76.11     5.37    22.63     0.12     1.14    74.47    15.66P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         32   49   +6       1.48    57.13     0.87    70.56     5.25     9.47     0.00     0.03    26.81     4.95P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            31   47   +6       2.65    62.78     3.04    67.57     5.30     6.22     0.00     0.00    12.45     2.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   45   +9      -2.02    40.81     4.42    65.12     5.14    10.38     0.00     0.00     5.66     1.10P    0.06R    0.00  
Wycombe              32   43   -4       4.77    71.68     4.82    59.67     5.11    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.06P    1.93R    0.03  
Coventry             32   43   -4       3.83    67.89     2.04    58.94     4.93    -8.62     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P    2.20R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        31   41   +2      -3.61    33.84    -1.07    59.81     5.29    -0.58     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.14P    1.60R    0.01  
Scunthorpe           32   40  -16      -1.80    42.12   -12.23    59.32     5.23   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.06P    3.11R    0.09  
Southend             32   39   -1      -4.64    29.65    -0.52    58.02     5.12    -1.27     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    3.44R    0.10  
Plymouth             32   37  -13      -1.69    42.76    -4.65    52.91     5.01   -18.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    23.53R    1.34  
Accrington_Stanley   29   36  -11       3.37    67.21    -0.94    54.68     5.55   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   16.41R    0.96  
Walsall              32   35  -16      -1.99    41.31    -5.48    50.56     4.98   -21.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.27R    3.47  
Rochdale             32   34  -25      -0.80    47.22   -10.06    49.68     4.99   -30.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.42R    6.78  
Bristol_Rovers       31   33   -4      -7.17    19.54    -0.66    51.26     5.28    -7.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   31.42R    3.22  
Oxford_Utd           31   33   -9      -6.23    23.00    -3.65    53.19     5.40    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.41R    1.62  
Gillingham           31   33  -12      -4.08    31.57    -3.09    51.06     5.27   -16.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.25R    3.89  
Shrewsbury           31   32  -10      -8.01    16.50    -6.64    52.54     5.33   -10.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    24.38R    1.90  
Bradford             32   32  -16      -6.55    21.99    -7.58    49.04     5.10   -19.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.89R    7.25  
AFC_Wimbledon        32   26  -25      -6.27    21.57    -8.64    40.77     4.85   -31.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.66R   69.32  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 February 2019, Crewe 2 1 Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     31   61  +24       8.93    85.92     9.85    86.09     5.31    30.82    52.02    87.30    99.53    90.33P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        32   58  +23       3.55    66.33     7.67    81.77     5.04    29.65    18.97    66.31    97.83    75.42P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             32   57  +23       0.95    53.77     4.12    81.80     5.19    31.68    19.14    67.77    97.32    76.34P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          32   53  +18      -2.49    38.23     0.76    77.79     5.12    26.24     5.71    34.95    89.60    52.88P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   52  +17       0.34    51.61     5.42    73.67     5.13    20.59     1.15    11.87    66.89    25.60P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         32   52  +12       2.13    59.96     3.18    73.58     5.20    15.54     0.97    10.60    64.57    22.60P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     32   51  +15       6.16    76.68    13.72    70.49     5.11    15.50     0.24     3.87    41.64    10.43P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           31   51  +12       1.63    57.87     1.81    74.16     5.41    15.80     1.58    13.38    67.88    26.53P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        32   47   -4       4.30    69.53    -2.25    64.59     5.01    -6.37     0.00     0.18     7.47     1.42P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          32   46   -3       0.94    54.68    -4.79    66.54     5.11    -1.16     0.03     0.47    14.45     3.26P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           31   45  +11      -6.04    23.80    -1.81    69.17     5.42    16.30     0.18     2.86    34.35    11.66P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   45   +5       2.78    63.35     5.67    64.04     5.36     2.66     0.02     0.30     8.34     1.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe            32   45   -3       3.78    67.72     1.23    63.76     5.07    -3.64     0.00     0.10     5.72     1.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          32   43   -3       4.09    69.58     3.92    60.35     5.03    -5.60     0.00     0.01     1.50     0.24P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County   31   43  -10       5.14    74.09    -2.71    60.95     5.28   -14.08     0.00     0.03     2.24     0.34P    0.06R    0.00  
Northampton      32   38   -4      -6.32    23.53    -4.50    58.26     5.18    -2.55     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.11P    0.21R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     32   37  -10      -1.38    44.10    -1.50    53.90     4.98   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.87R    0.35  
Cheltenham       31   35  -12      -2.19    40.17    -3.32    53.10     5.26   -15.91     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P    3.16R    0.67  
Cambridge_Utd    31   35  -21      -0.74    46.92   -11.05    52.35     5.16   -25.85     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     4.65R    1.13  
Port_Vale        31   33  -11      -4.42    29.41    -4.20    51.66     5.15   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    4.92R    1.37  
Yeovil           32   30  -11      -7.08    19.62    -1.03    46.83     4.95   -14.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.23R    7.26  
Morecambe        31   29  -18      -4.43    29.06    -4.36    45.93     5.12   -23.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.60R   12.05  
Macclesfield     32   28  -21      -2.05    40.77     0.62    41.18     4.69   -30.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.91R   42.63  
Notts_County     31   25  -29      -9.92    10.60   -16.45    42.35     5.22   -34.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.35R   34.51  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 12 February 2019, Aldershot 0 3 Solihull_Moors; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Solihull_Moors     33   63  +23      13.33    93.93    16.33    83.42     4.92    26.91    20.20    86.94    34.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient      32   61  +30       5.10    72.75    12.44    85.72     5.03    38.27    42.61    94.02    58.86P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            32   59  +16       9.61    87.91     7.76    80.49     4.96    19.56     7.53    68.74    22.40P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          32   57  +25       2.48    61.26     9.13    81.86     5.06    33.48    15.14    80.49    35.06P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       32   57  +24       6.14    75.76    13.40    79.75     5.31    29.35     8.23    65.25    22.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      31   55   +8       9.25    86.56     3.10    77.92     5.28    11.64     3.43    46.61    12.67P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     31   53  +18       5.93    74.87    11.21    76.22     5.58    22.16     2.61    38.46    10.41P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   52   +9       2.43    61.23     2.30    70.36     4.90     9.93     0.07     6.57     1.56P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          32   52   -1      10.18    88.37     1.89    71.06     5.02    -1.25     0.12     7.55     1.28P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   47  +12      -1.14    44.81     5.45    68.79     5.17    15.84     0.06     4.47     1.09P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             32   42   -2       0.30    51.83     0.54    59.59     5.00    -3.93     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.57R    0.00  
Bromley            32   41   -2      -3.48    34.30    -2.91    60.44     5.13    -1.79     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.43R    0.00  
Hartlepool         32   40   -8      -1.26    44.73    -4.53    56.70     4.99   -11.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.50R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          32   39   -2      -6.73    21.58    -5.01    59.09     5.20    -0.71     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.96R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   39   -4      -4.91    27.76    -4.78    57.32     5.06    -4.91     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.86R    0.00  
Halifax            31   35   -6      -1.24    44.40     1.64    52.79     5.07    -9.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.26R    0.09  
Barnet             27   35   -7      -5.16    25.74   -11.95    62.67     6.17    -4.45     0.01     0.78     0.27P    0.61R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    32   34   -9      -2.51    39.48     3.00    49.20     5.10   -15.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.68R    0.90  
Maidenhead         32   34  -21      -1.10    45.72    -7.43    48.24     4.89   -29.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.71R    1.22  
Chesterfield       31   33   -7     -11.87     7.78   -10.80    54.71     5.39    -5.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.25R    0.08  
Dover_Athletic     33   33  -18      -9.13    14.09   -13.75    50.10     4.85   -18.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.12R    0.62  
Aldershot          32   28  -28      -8.45    14.78   -17.50    44.17     4.93   -32.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.27R    9.80  
Maidstone_United   32   26  -26      -5.41    25.40    -7.44    40.01     4.76   -33.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.38R   30.59  
Braintree_Town     32   25  -24      -4.79    28.53    -2.10    37.30     4.73   -34.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.42R   56.68