Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 13 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.43    57.43     4.30    91.75     3.48    76.09    53.95    94.60    99.92   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.53    93.06    10.39    91.50     4.10    60.92    43.57    92.05    99.81    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.51    82.58    -0.09    83.46     4.28    40.44     2.48    13.20    90.02    97.79   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.63    58.41    -4.47    73.18     4.47    25.90     0.00     0.07     4.04    42.20    99.70     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.80    70.23    -1.16    72.03     4.63    24.87     0.00     0.04     3.54    31.15    99.38     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.67    63.99    -1.95    71.95     4.47    24.49     0.00     0.03     2.67    28.87    99.40     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.73    82.55     7.62    54.79     4.58    -0.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.22     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.23    76.75     7.04    51.20     4.32    -5.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.66    31.16    -0.52    46.46     4.38    -5.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.19R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       1.80    60.59     1.49    47.71     4.33   -11.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.83    66.13     1.76    47.86     4.51   -13.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.92    40.10     0.98    49.68     4.60    -1.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.57    26.40     0.33    41.32     4.39   -10.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.13R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.37    43.06     1.15    39.94     4.26   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.94R    0.00  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.41    37.32    -7.12    38.65     4.21   -26.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.06R    0.01  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.63    25.68    -2.19    40.66     4.55   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.16R    0.01  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       1.13    58.13    -2.26    35.50     4.15   -33.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.90R    0.10  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.13    23.40    -4.11    37.76     4.37   -20.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.74R    0.04  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.34    21.15    -5.64    26.67     4.15   -45.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.60R   11.45  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -8.04     8.20    -5.55    19.52     3.79   -46.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   88.39  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 February 2019, Norwich 3 0 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         31   60  +21      10.65    89.55    10.67    84.75     5.41    27.43    39.89    64.15    97.86    71.92P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    31   58  +16      10.85    90.19     9.11    81.61     5.43    20.43    17.79    38.00    92.19    49.38P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       31   55  +19       5.91    75.83     9.26    78.95     5.35    24.11     9.00    23.02    84.89    37.34P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       30   53  +22      -1.25    43.65     1.80    81.89     5.59    32.84    23.26    45.34    93.16    61.48P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   51  +12       1.75    58.52     0.31    77.65     5.50    18.74     5.71    15.54    77.16    33.60P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    30   50   +9       5.49    74.89     4.08    72.76     5.53    10.18     1.15     3.75    40.82    11.39P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   50   +7       3.24    65.15    -1.29    76.01     5.53    13.02     3.03     9.18    65.37    23.06P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      31   46  +10       6.27    77.88    14.31    66.24     5.32     9.31     0.04     0.23     9.00     1.67P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   45   +8       2.30    61.17     7.94    65.35     5.33     7.53     0.02     0.11     6.57     1.40P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     31   44   +7      -5.54    25.60    -3.59    67.09     5.45    10.70     0.08     0.31    12.14     3.47P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         31   44   +4      -3.60    33.77    -3.51    66.69     5.38     7.15     0.04     0.24     9.47     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            31   43   +3      -0.99    45.97     1.11    64.60     5.31     4.33     0.01     0.07     4.76     1.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       31   43   -5       2.37    61.34    -1.65    62.87     5.42    -6.25     0.00     0.02     2.31     0.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         31   40   +1      -4.23    31.04    -1.33    61.15     5.39     1.70     0.00     0.01     1.36     0.31P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             30   39   -7       2.26    61.49     0.32    58.00     5.43   -11.86     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    0.14R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   39  -11       0.68    54.02    -6.55    59.39     5.53   -13.41     0.00     0.01     0.58     0.09P    0.08R    0.00  
Stoke           31   38   -7      -5.17    27.36    -7.92    59.07     5.37    -6.06     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.10P    0.09R    0.00  
Brentford       30   37   +6      -7.94    16.80     0.64    60.80     5.64     8.75     0.00     0.02     1.70     0.45P    0.04R    0.00  
Wigan           31   33  -14      -5.81    24.55    -8.56    52.37     5.29   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.31R    0.03  
Millwall        30   30  -11      -7.35    17.96    -5.32    48.95     5.41   -15.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.32R    0.16  
Rotherham       31   27  -20      -3.66    33.03    -1.11    40.42     4.91   -31.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.39R    6.57  
Reading         31   26  -12      -9.28    12.09    -0.82    42.82     5.14   -17.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.47R    2.87  
Bolton          31   23  -27      -4.21    29.14    -4.22    35.90     4.67   -38.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.16R   30.88  
Ipswich         31   18  -31     -13.19     3.73   -13.69    32.99     4.95   -39.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.99R   59.49  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 February 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                32   68  +37       9.65    87.06    15.06    94.86     5.09    48.71    64.34    88.66   100.00    92.34P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             31   62  +30       3.72    66.34     6.10    89.96     5.31    40.95    19.75    57.29    99.90    73.12P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           31   59  +19      10.19    88.91     9.79    82.81     5.34    23.77     1.74     9.47    96.68    28.61P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           29   57  +23       4.24    69.39     3.46    88.54     5.74    35.39    13.95    42.50    99.55    62.47P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             32   55  +15       4.46    69.96     5.34    77.93     5.21    20.47     0.13     1.41    84.76    20.72P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            30   50  +16       3.76    67.45     8.49    74.32     5.60    19.38     0.08     0.62    63.97    12.82P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         32   49   +6       1.71    57.98     1.25    70.44     5.26     9.26     0.00     0.03    29.26     5.36P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            30   46   +6       2.73    63.50     2.65    67.46     5.49     5.49     0.00     0.03    14.88     2.67P    0.03R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   45   +9      -1.94    41.26     4.58    65.02     5.15    10.24     0.00     0.00     6.92     1.26P    0.09R    0.00  
Wycombe              32   43   -4       4.76    71.34     4.82    59.61     5.11    -8.10     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.09P    2.22R    0.01  
Coventry             32   43   -4       3.90    68.40     2.12    58.86     4.93    -8.74     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.06P    2.47R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        31   41   +2      -3.52    34.36    -0.94    59.69     5.33    -0.76     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.19P    1.89R    0.01  
Scunthorpe           32   40  -16      -1.75    42.12   -12.14    59.35     5.22   -15.93     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.09P    3.25R    0.06  
Southend             31   39   +2      -4.45    30.21     0.72    59.53     5.36     1.92     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.18P    2.24R    0.03  
Plymouth             32   37  -13      -1.82    42.17    -4.85    52.93     5.02   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   24.83R    0.80  
Accrington_Stanley   29   36  -11       3.25    66.54    -1.11    54.75     5.55   -17.67     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P   16.95R    0.67  
Walsall              31   35  -15      -0.98    45.91    -5.00    52.40     5.21   -19.83     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    28.89R    1.45  
Rochdale             32   34  -25      -1.02    46.16   -10.41    49.74     5.01   -30.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.43R    4.45  
Bristol_Rovers       31   33   -4      -6.98    20.09    -0.39    51.23     5.27    -7.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    32.98R    2.09  
Oxford_Utd           31   33   -9      -5.94    24.34    -3.17    53.06     5.41    -9.91     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   23.02R    1.15  
Gillingham           31   33  -12      -4.00    31.90    -2.97    51.11     5.27   -16.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   36.51R    2.52  
Shrewsbury           31   32  -10      -8.02    16.71    -6.59    52.55     5.34   -10.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   25.53R    1.35  
Bradford             32   32  -16      -6.56    21.84    -7.67    49.18     5.08   -19.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.24R    4.86  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   23  -26      -7.66    15.66    -9.13    38.60     5.05   -33.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.43R   80.52  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 February 2019, Cambridge_Utd 1 0 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     31   61  +24       8.87    85.64     9.77    86.05     5.32    30.74    51.42    86.98    99.49    90.11P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        32   58  +23       3.56    66.35     7.67    81.76     5.07    29.65    19.16    66.35    97.73    75.23P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             32   57  +23       1.08    54.68     4.37    81.82     5.17    31.67    19.40    67.80    97.30    76.34P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   52  +17       0.55    52.41     5.75    73.52     5.17    20.38     1.19    11.70    66.14    25.16P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         31   52  +13       3.05    64.19     3.47    75.22     5.43    16.95     2.38    17.77    74.74    31.00P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     31   51  +17       6.61    78.49    14.41    71.90     5.33    17.58     0.70     7.16    53.16    15.36P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           31   51  +12       1.56    57.44     1.79    74.18     5.41    15.85     1.67    13.22    68.04    26.77P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          31   50  +17      -3.47    33.70     0.67    76.33     5.38    25.49     3.94    26.31    82.58    44.57P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        32   47   -4       4.41    70.55    -2.07    64.54     5.02    -6.41     0.01     0.19     7.49     1.47P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   45   +5       2.63    62.72     5.40    64.20     5.39     2.87     0.01     0.33     8.76     1.91P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          32   43   -3       4.17    69.77     4.01    60.32     5.04    -5.60     0.00     0.02     1.46     0.23P    0.04R    0.00  
Swindon          31   43   -5       0.26    51.38    -5.40    64.85     5.37    -3.28     0.01     0.32     9.54     2.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County   30   43   -9       6.00    77.59    -2.38    62.10     5.51   -13.43     0.01     0.12     4.22     0.73P    0.04R    0.00  
Oldham           30   42   +8      -6.15    23.20    -2.53    67.72     5.60    13.51     0.11     1.66    25.20     8.27P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            31   42   -4       2.46    62.08     0.72    61.85     5.34    -5.04     0.00     0.07     3.44     0.60P    0.03R    0.00  
Northampton      32   38   -4      -6.49    22.91    -4.74    58.29     5.25    -2.50     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.10P    0.27R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     32   37  -10      -1.46    43.83    -1.71    53.86     4.98   -13.54     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    1.99R    0.38  
Cheltenham       31   35  -12      -2.18    40.29    -3.36    53.19     5.28   -15.76     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    3.28R    0.67  
Cambridge_Utd    31   35  -21      -0.82    46.88   -11.22    52.39     5.17   -25.76     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    4.99R    1.22  
Port_Vale        31   33  -11      -4.51    29.23    -4.38    51.69     5.17   -13.62     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.34R    1.37  
Yeovil           31   30   -8      -6.98    19.81    -0.12    48.01     5.16   -11.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.41R    5.33  
Morecambe        31   29  -18      -4.24    30.21    -4.08    45.87     5.13   -23.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.00R   12.73  
Macclesfield     32   28  -21      -2.25    40.17     0.23    41.17     4.73   -30.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.93R   43.44  
Notts_County     31   25  -29      -9.80    11.04   -16.26    42.39     5.25   -34.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.68R   34.81  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 February 2019, Aldershot 1 3 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      32   61  +30       4.97    72.03    12.27    85.81     5.04    38.34    46.52    94.52    61.65P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     32   60  +20      12.82    93.37    14.91    81.53     5.10    23.57    13.08    77.65    26.02P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            32   59  +16       9.79    88.21     8.05    80.39     4.96    19.42     8.38    69.68    23.53P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          32   57  +25       2.38    60.94     8.98    81.80     5.02    33.43    15.89    81.77    36.77P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       32   57  +24       6.16    75.52    13.41    79.75     5.35    29.31     9.05    66.85    23.20P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      31   55   +8       9.29    86.80     3.15    77.87     5.30    11.60     3.90    48.29    13.26P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     31   53  +18       5.96    75.17    11.29    76.21     5.55    22.14     2.92    39.99    10.81P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   52   +9       2.42    61.21     2.33    70.35     4.91     9.88     0.06     7.40     1.78P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          32   52   -1      10.28    88.66     2.02    71.04     5.04    -1.27     0.15     8.14     1.48P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   47  +12      -1.09    45.33     5.53    68.76     5.14    15.79     0.03     4.67     1.18P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             32   42   -2       0.36    52.40     0.62    59.54     5.02    -4.01     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.66R    0.00  
Bromley            32   41   -2      -3.32    35.22    -2.66    60.37     5.17    -1.86     0.00     0.07     0.01P    0.53R    0.00  
Hartlepool         32   40   -8      -1.42    43.88    -4.75    56.78     4.98   -11.27     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.00R    0.01  
Dag_&_Red          32   39   -2      -6.60    21.84    -4.88    59.14     5.18    -0.67     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.12R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   39   -4      -4.85    28.18    -4.72    57.34     5.05    -4.89     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.10R    0.00  
Halifax            31   35   -6      -1.21    44.66     1.68    52.83     5.09    -9.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.57R    0.14  
Barnet             27   35   -7      -5.02    26.17   -11.74    62.60     6.24    -4.55     0.01     0.86     0.28P    0.70R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    32   34   -9      -2.71    38.52     2.73    49.23     5.11   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.84R    0.92  
Maidenhead         32   34  -21      -1.26    44.87    -7.75    48.33     4.87   -28.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.41R    1.47  
Chesterfield       31   33   -7     -11.83     7.76   -10.75    54.62     5.38    -5.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.02R    0.11  
Dover_Athletic     33   33  -18      -9.07    14.15   -13.68    50.11     4.82   -18.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.33R    0.57  
Aldershot          31   28  -25      -8.32    14.85   -16.34    45.83     5.18   -28.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.07R    6.21  
Maidstone_United   32   26  -26      -5.50    24.89    -7.51    40.05     4.79   -33.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.81R   31.75  
Braintree_Town     32   25  -24      -4.82    28.12    -2.19    37.31     4.72   -34.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.84R   58.81