Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 12 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2019, Wolverhampton 1 1 Newcastle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.51    58.18     4.71    91.71     3.48    75.95    53.70    94.57    99.93   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.53    93.19    10.40    91.49     4.09    60.91    43.79    92.04    99.79    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.51    82.60    -0.10    83.46     4.27    40.42     2.51    13.26    90.10    97.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.71    58.77    -4.33    73.11     4.51    25.81     0.00     0.07     3.91    41.63    99.65     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.80    70.07    -1.16    72.04     4.62    24.90     0.00     0.03     3.47    31.16    99.38     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.71    64.58    -1.85    71.96     4.49    24.50     0.00     0.03     2.81    29.29    99.43     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    26   39   +1       6.50    81.34     7.21    54.87     4.58    -0.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.23     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.38    77.53     7.24    51.12     4.32    -5.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.73    30.93    -0.67    46.49     4.37    -5.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.23R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       1.95    61.18     1.74    47.71     4.35   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.75    65.75     1.58    47.87     4.51   -13.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.18R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.92    39.56     0.96    49.69     4.61    -1.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.50    26.35     0.48    41.24     4.38   -10.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.13R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.25    43.82     1.27    39.91     4.24   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.25R    0.00  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.54    36.67    -7.35    38.73     4.22   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.65R    0.00  
Newcastle        26   25  -12      -4.68    25.31    -2.24    40.64     4.54   -13.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.05R    0.01  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       1.09    57.81    -2.32    35.49     4.13   -33.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.04R    0.12  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.10    23.41    -4.11    37.75     4.37   -20.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.83R    0.05  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.44    20.88    -5.89    26.74     4.16   -45.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.50R   11.05  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -7.97     8.23    -5.56    19.53     3.79   -46.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   88.77  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 February 2019, Norwich 3 0 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         31   60  +21      10.79    89.99    10.93    84.66     5.41    27.25    39.24    63.83    97.64    71.25P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    31   58  +16      10.77    90.27     9.00    81.64     5.40    20.52    17.95    38.61    92.49    49.92P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       31   55  +19       5.75    75.16     9.01    79.07     5.33    24.33     9.80    23.88    85.55    38.66P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       30   53  +22      -1.17    43.81     1.95    81.80     5.59    32.68    23.12    44.74    93.09    60.87P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   51  +12       1.77    58.58     0.34    77.61     5.47    18.68     5.64    15.25    77.14    33.51P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    30   50   +9       5.52    74.85     4.09    72.77     5.53    10.17     1.16     3.60    40.83    11.19P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   50   +7       3.30    65.47    -1.23    75.96     5.52    12.95     2.94     9.10    65.08    23.01P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      31   46  +10       6.35    77.99    14.35    66.21     5.29     9.27     0.02     0.18     8.59     1.61P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   45   +8       2.44    61.95     8.10    65.27     5.32     7.45     0.01     0.10     6.47     1.29P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     31   44   +7      -5.50    25.45    -3.57    67.13     5.44    10.75     0.07     0.36    12.18     3.55P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         31   44   +4      -3.56    33.94    -3.45    66.69     5.38     7.12     0.04     0.24     9.54     2.72P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            31   43   +3      -1.00    45.55     1.04    64.66     5.31     4.41     0.01     0.06     4.86     1.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       31   43   -5       2.26    60.90    -1.85    62.95     5.43    -6.12     0.00     0.01     2.34     0.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston         31   40   +1      -4.28    30.94    -1.40    61.15     5.37     1.74     0.00     0.01     1.31     0.28P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             30   39   -7       2.24    61.51     0.31    58.03     5.37   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   39  -11       0.79    54.54    -6.35    59.29     5.53   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.11P    0.09R    0.00  
Stoke           31   38   -7      -4.90    28.69    -7.52    58.99     5.38    -6.22     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.08P    0.13R    0.00  
Brentford       30   37   +6      -8.02    17.04     0.48    60.84     5.66     8.80     0.00     0.02     1.64     0.43P    0.03R    0.00  
Wigan           31   33  -14      -6.06    23.66    -8.95    52.51     5.31   -15.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.16R    0.01  
Millwall        30   30  -11      -7.40    17.77    -5.37    48.96     5.44   -15.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.35R    0.19  
Rotherham       31   27  -20      -3.73    32.79    -1.18    40.46     4.92   -31.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.11R    6.48  
Reading         31   26  -12      -9.27    12.20    -0.71    42.77     5.13   -17.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.14R    2.59  
Bolton          31   23  -27      -4.44    27.88    -4.50    36.00     4.71   -38.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.65R   30.30  
Ipswich         31   18  -31     -13.07     3.83   -13.52    32.91     4.94   -39.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.15R   60.44  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 February 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                32   68  +37       9.55    86.64    14.90    94.84     5.04    48.68    64.51    88.98   100.00    92.73P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             31   62  +30       3.98    67.63     6.50    89.84     5.33    40.75    19.34    56.36    99.87    72.26P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           31   59  +19      10.23    88.91     9.90    82.76     5.39    23.72     1.86     9.67    96.49    28.49P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           29   57  +23       4.30    69.84     3.56    88.54     5.74    35.37    14.03    42.96    99.50    63.06P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             32   55  +15       4.55    70.08     5.41    77.96     5.20    20.47     0.18     1.40    84.86    20.66P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            30   50  +16       3.60    66.60     8.21    74.34     5.61    19.45     0.08     0.59    64.03    12.70P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         32   49   +6       1.60    57.62     1.09    70.50     5.23     9.35     0.00     0.02    29.53     5.54P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            30   46   +6       2.83    63.75     2.76    67.41     5.49     5.44     0.00     0.02    14.70     2.62P    0.03R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   45   +9      -1.94    41.17     4.58    65.04     5.18    10.25     0.00     0.00     6.91     1.30P    0.08R    0.00  
Wycombe              32   43   -4       4.55    70.54     4.53    59.74     5.09    -7.91     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.07P    1.94R    0.02  
Coventry             32   43   -4       3.86    67.68     2.07    58.98     4.93    -8.56     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.06P    2.33R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        31   41   +2      -3.36    35.00    -0.69    59.66     5.30    -0.83     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.19P    1.88R    0.01  
Scunthorpe           32   40  -16      -1.91    41.76   -12.36    59.43     5.24   -15.81     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.11P    3.28R    0.03  
Southend             31   39   +2      -4.48    29.75     0.71    59.58     5.37     2.00     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.19P    2.14R    0.03  
Plymouth             32   37  -13      -1.79    42.45    -4.83    52.94     5.05   -18.20     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   24.80R    0.87  
Accrington_Stanley   29   36  -11       3.33    67.27    -1.02    54.65     5.50   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P   17.24R    0.64  
Walsall              31   35  -15      -0.85    46.80    -4.74    52.33     5.17   -19.92     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   29.14R    1.55  
Rochdale             32   34  -25      -0.90    46.51   -10.18    49.62     5.00   -31.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   51.34R    4.66  
Bristol_Rovers       31   33   -4      -7.10    19.74    -0.51    51.23     5.24    -7.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   33.07R    1.88  
Oxford_Utd           31   33   -9      -6.03    23.36    -3.31    53.08     5.37    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   22.92R    1.10  
Gillingham           31   33  -12      -4.30    30.71    -3.49    51.23     5.29   -15.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   35.62R    2.52  
Shrewsbury           31   32  -10      -7.87    16.91    -6.43    52.50     5.33   -10.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   25.41R    1.35  
Bradford             32   32  -16      -6.51    22.20    -7.57    49.11     5.09   -19.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.46R    5.00  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   23  -26      -7.66    15.80    -9.11    38.61     5.06   -33.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.33R   80.33  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 February 2019, Cambridge_Utd 1 0 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     31   61  +24       8.98    85.93     9.93    85.98     5.30    30.64    51.21    86.82    99.49    90.08P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        32   58  +23       3.68    66.69     7.90    81.78     5.04    29.67    19.13    66.18    97.80    75.39P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             32   57  +23       0.92    53.80     4.17    81.82     5.20    31.69    19.88    67.73    97.23    76.10P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   52  +17       0.42    51.71     5.53    73.63     5.16    20.54     1.17    11.86    66.85    25.70P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         31   52  +13       3.12    64.53     3.57    75.16     5.44    16.87     2.31    17.87    74.15    30.80P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     31   51  +17       6.74    78.94    14.55    71.93     5.33    17.58     0.72     7.44    53.27    15.61P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           31   51  +12       1.50    57.07     1.66    74.27     5.39    15.99     1.58    13.62    68.67    27.48P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          31   50  +17      -3.55    33.51     0.57    76.35     5.33    25.52     3.88    25.97    83.09    44.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        32   47   -4       4.37    70.14    -2.15    64.64     5.03    -6.30     0.01     0.25     7.45     1.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         31   45   +5       2.90    63.57     5.78    64.10     5.39     2.72     0.01     0.23     8.43     1.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          32   43   -3       4.21    70.18     4.05    60.30     5.05    -5.62     0.00     0.01     1.46     0.23P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon          31   43   -5       0.19    51.26    -5.52    64.86     5.38    -3.27     0.00     0.28     9.60     2.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   30   43   -9       5.96    77.54    -2.46    62.11     5.51   -13.43     0.01     0.11     4.25     0.67P    0.03R    0.00  
Oldham           30   42   +8      -6.01    23.89    -2.23    67.57     5.61    13.34     0.10     1.60    24.26     7.74P    0.00     0.00  
Crewe            31   42   -4       2.54    62.76     0.82    61.82     5.31    -5.09     0.00     0.04     3.27     0.62P    0.03R    0.00  
Northampton      32   38   -4      -6.46    22.96    -4.72    58.25     5.23    -2.54     0.00     0.01     0.60     0.14P    0.25R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     32   37  -10      -1.35    44.26    -1.60    53.88     5.02   -13.54     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    2.13R    0.41  
Cheltenham       31   35  -12      -2.27    39.57    -3.53    53.25     5.25   -15.65     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P    3.18R    0.68  
Cambridge_Utd    31   35  -21      -0.89    46.24   -11.27    52.41     5.14   -25.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.88R    1.21  
Port_Vale        31   33  -11      -4.48    29.18    -4.31    51.62     5.15   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.65R    1.40  
Yeovil           31   30   -8      -7.07    19.33    -0.20    47.98     5.14   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.62R    5.28  
Morecambe        31   29  -18      -4.35    30.13    -4.19    45.92     5.19   -23.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.85R   12.96  
Macclesfield     32   28  -21      -2.25    40.29     0.20    41.18     4.74   -30.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.75R   43.20  
Notts_County     31   25  -29      -9.98    10.61   -16.56    42.39     5.25   -34.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.60R   34.82  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 February 2019, Aldershot 1 3 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      32   61  +30       4.94    72.16    12.20    85.77     5.04    38.34    46.39    94.38    61.81P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     32   60  +20      12.93    93.45    15.11    81.47     5.14    23.49    13.04    77.31    25.76P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            32   59  +16       9.68    87.90     7.91    80.44     4.94    19.47     8.42    70.02    23.72P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          32   57  +25       2.42    60.88     9.05    81.74     5.07    33.34    15.99    81.30    36.28P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       32   57  +24       6.21    75.52    13.51    79.72     5.35    29.27     9.18    66.78    23.38P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      31   55   +8       9.28    86.63     3.17    77.86     5.31    11.60     3.88    48.23    13.10P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     31   53  +18       5.91    74.65    11.19    76.25     5.53    22.20     2.89    40.40    11.18P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   52   +9       2.57    61.96     2.55    70.27     4.90     9.77     0.03     7.20     1.65P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          32   52   -1      10.22    88.35     1.91    71.07     5.06    -1.24     0.14     8.44     1.53P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   47  +12      -1.16    44.81     5.41    68.80     5.15    15.84     0.04     4.92     1.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Barrow             32   42   -2       0.39    52.63     0.67    59.49     5.03    -4.06     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.79R    0.00  
Bromley            32   41   -2      -3.25    35.66    -2.61    60.33     5.15    -1.91     0.00     0.06     0.02P    0.51R    0.00  
Hartlepool         32   40   -8      -1.51    43.07    -4.84    56.80     4.99   -11.23     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.81R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          32   39   -2      -6.62    21.73    -4.89    59.16     5.20    -0.64     0.00     0.02     0.01P    1.13R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   39   -4      -4.93    27.95    -4.84    57.37     5.05    -4.80     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.14R    0.00  
Halifax            31   35   -6      -1.26    44.64     1.61    52.80     5.04    -9.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.37R    0.15  
Barnet             27   35   -7      -5.06    25.85   -11.87    62.64     6.20    -4.48     0.01     0.89     0.28P    0.76R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    32   34   -9      -2.51    39.70     2.99    49.21     5.10   -15.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.73R    0.93  
Maidenhead         32   34  -21      -1.33    44.48    -7.82    48.34     4.88   -28.94     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.88R    1.33  
Chesterfield       31   33   -7     -11.79     7.79   -10.66    54.65     5.39    -5.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.14R    0.11  
Dover_Athletic     33   33  -18      -9.12    14.27   -13.68    50.11     4.86   -18.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.60R    0.61  
Aldershot          31   28  -25      -8.38    14.63   -16.44    45.86     5.19   -28.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.57R    6.32  
Maidstone_United   32   26  -26      -5.52    24.72    -7.47    40.08     4.75   -33.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.72R   31.64  
Braintree_Town     32   25  -24      -4.77    28.46    -2.15    37.33     4.72   -34.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.84R   58.89