Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 11 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 February 2019, Man_City 6 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         27   65  +54       1.48    57.89     4.56    91.74     3.47    76.02    53.71    94.91    99.95   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        26   65  +44       9.50    93.26    10.32    91.51     4.10    60.96    43.82    92.06    99.80    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        26   60  +29       6.55    83.20     0.04    83.40     4.28    40.34     2.47    12.91    89.62    97.65   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          26   51  +17       1.62    58.26    -4.53    73.17     4.46    25.90     0.00     0.08     3.91    41.35    99.55     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          26   50  +16       3.69    69.66    -1.38    72.08     4.61    24.95     0.00     0.03     3.64    31.49    99.19     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          26   50  +16       2.62    63.47    -2.05    72.00     4.50    24.58     0.00     0.03     3.06    29.50    99.13     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   38   +1       7.03    83.60     7.49    55.49     4.82     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.82     0.00     0.00  
Watford          26   37   +0       5.31    77.20     7.14    51.16     4.34    -5.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.01R    0.00  
Everton          27   33   -3      -3.76    30.60    -0.73    46.50     4.37    -5.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.20R    0.00  
West_Ham         26   33   -7       1.98    61.45     1.83    47.68     4.35   -11.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13R    0.00  
Bournemouth      26   33  -10       2.78    65.87     1.68    47.86     4.51   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.17R    0.00  
Leicester        26   32   -3      -1.85    40.36     1.06    49.66     4.61    -1.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   27   -7      -4.39    27.31     0.64    41.26     4.37   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.08R    0.00  
Brighton         26   27  -11      -1.36    43.31     1.11    39.95     4.22   -17.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.83R    0.00  
Burnley          26   27  -18      -2.39    37.36    -7.12    38.68     4.22   -26.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.79R    0.00  
Cardiff          26   25  -23       1.15    57.99    -2.19    35.46     4.16   -33.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.07R    0.13  
Newcastle        25   24  -12      -4.36    26.25    -2.30    40.71     4.74   -13.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.59R    0.00  
Southampton      26   24  -16      -5.19    23.32    -4.21    37.74     4.38   -20.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.56R    0.04  
Fulham           26   17  -33      -5.40    20.95    -5.72    26.69     4.14   -45.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.57R   11.39  
Huddersfield     26   11  -34      -8.01     8.12    -5.61    19.55     3.81   -46.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   88.42  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 10 February 2019, Norwich 3 0 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         31   60  +21      10.74    89.79    10.82    84.71     5.40    27.37    39.89    64.25    97.83    71.64P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    31   58  +16      10.91    90.41     9.18    81.58     5.41    20.39    17.68    37.65    92.28    49.12P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       31   55  +19       5.80    75.23     9.07    79.04     5.32    24.24     9.58    23.52    85.51    37.88P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       30   53  +22      -1.08    44.32     2.05    81.78     5.59    32.69    22.91    45.11    92.92    60.95P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   30   51  +12       1.79    58.89     0.42    77.61     5.46    18.71     5.52    15.39    76.92    34.19P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    30   50   +9       5.39    74.45     3.94    72.80     5.57    10.27     1.17     3.82    41.11    11.52P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           30   50   +7       3.22    65.30    -1.33    76.03     5.53    13.06     3.05     9.24    65.51    23.25P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      31   46  +10       6.22    77.80    14.21    66.27     5.36     9.37     0.03     0.21     8.99     1.75P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   31   45   +8       2.28    61.07     7.92    65.34     5.37     7.59     0.02     0.11     6.48     1.41P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     31   44   +7      -5.36    26.20    -3.29    67.00     5.47    10.59     0.06     0.31    11.77     3.18P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         31   44   +4      -3.49    34.07    -3.36    66.70     5.37     7.11     0.06     0.25     9.57     2.71P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            31   43   +3      -1.12    44.74     0.90    64.68     5.34     4.47     0.02     0.08     5.02     1.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       31   43   -5       2.36    61.62    -1.76    62.89     5.35    -6.19     0.00     0.02     2.10     0.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston         31   40   +1      -4.19    30.97    -1.29    61.11     5.33     1.66     0.00     0.02     1.17     0.29P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             30   39   -7       2.37    62.27     0.46    57.89     5.36   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    0.16R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       30   39  -11       0.89    55.10    -6.24    59.34     5.51   -13.51     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.12P    0.08R    0.00  
Stoke           31   38   -7      -4.98    28.13    -7.63    59.01     5.37    -6.21     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.08P    0.09R    0.00  
Brentford       30   37   +6      -8.12    16.53     0.37    60.87     5.63     8.85     0.00     0.01     1.66     0.42P    0.04R    0.00  
Wigan           31   33  -14      -5.96    24.03    -8.82    52.43     5.33   -15.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.23R    0.05  
Millwall        30   30  -11      -7.45    17.62    -5.50    48.95     5.47   -15.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.41R    0.17  
Rotherham       31   27  -20      -3.52    33.74    -0.88    40.39     4.90   -31.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.93R    6.71  
Reading         31   26  -12      -9.36    11.96    -0.90    42.84     5.20   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.63R    2.91  
Bolton          31   23  -27      -4.47    27.84    -4.52    36.02     4.71   -38.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.60R   30.02  
Ipswich         31   18  -31     -13.27     3.50   -13.81    32.97     4.95   -39.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.82R   60.13  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 February 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 0 2 Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                32   68  +37       9.75    87.11    15.23    94.78     5.08    48.59    63.46    88.51   100.00    92.36P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             31   62  +30       3.85    67.33     6.34    89.87     5.33    40.80    19.98    56.58    99.89    72.39P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           31   59  +19      10.18    88.73     9.81    82.71     5.36    23.61     1.77     9.55    96.47    28.30P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           29   57  +23       4.17    69.00     3.36    88.60     5.78    35.49    14.57    43.34    99.49    63.14P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             32   55  +15       4.48    70.01     5.33    77.98     5.21    20.52     0.15     1.36    85.52    21.07P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            30   50  +16       3.84    67.60     8.59    74.26     5.60    19.27     0.08     0.62    64.24    12.82P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         32   49   +6       1.70    58.05     1.28    70.38     5.22     9.20     0.00     0.03    28.86     5.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            30   46   +6       2.79    63.57     2.69    67.39     5.43     5.40     0.00     0.01    14.34     2.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       32   45   +9      -1.87    41.55     4.62    65.01     5.15    10.25     0.00     0.00     7.01     1.31P    0.08R    0.00  
Wycombe              32   43   -4       4.72    71.36     4.78    59.64     5.08    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.08P    1.95R    0.01  
Coventry             32   43   -4       3.67    67.43     1.84    59.03     4.93    -8.46     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.05P    2.39R    0.01  
Burton_Albion        31   41   +2      -3.66    33.66    -1.13    59.77     5.32    -0.65     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.19P    1.82R    0.01  
Scunthorpe           32   40  -16      -1.80    42.16   -12.25    59.37     5.22   -15.85     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.11P    3.21R    0.04  
Southend             31   39   +2      -4.59    29.16     0.57    59.62     5.39     2.05     0.00     0.00     1.15     0.21P    2.16R    0.02  
Plymouth             32   37  -13      -1.92    41.41    -5.02    52.98     5.02   -18.07     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   24.17R    0.75  
Accrington_Stanley   29   36  -11       3.40    67.28    -0.94    54.70     5.54   -17.76     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   17.03R    0.65  
Walsall              31   35  -15      -0.82    46.90    -4.68    52.32     5.24   -19.99     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   29.49R    1.61  
Rochdale             32   34  -25      -0.92    46.74   -10.16    49.67     5.01   -30.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.31R    4.64  
Bristol_Rovers       31   33   -4      -7.06    19.68    -0.55    51.28     5.25    -7.24     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   32.57R    1.99  
Oxford_Utd           31   33   -9      -6.10    23.47    -3.44    53.14     5.40    -9.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   22.72R    1.19  
Gillingham           31   33  -12      -4.06    31.81    -3.08    51.10     5.26   -16.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    36.60R    2.45  
Shrewsbury           31   32  -10      -7.97    16.56    -6.57    52.55     5.35    -9.97     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    25.61R    1.34  
Bradford             32   32  -16      -6.49    21.96    -7.57    49.13     5.11   -19.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.38R    4.89  
AFC_Wimbledon        31   23  -26      -7.66    15.53    -9.06    38.63     5.02   -33.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.48R   80.41  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 February 2019, Cambridge_Utd 1 0 Port_Vale; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     31   61  +24       8.97    85.88     9.92    85.93     5.35    30.56    50.82    86.55    99.39    89.78P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        32   58  +23       3.76    67.06     8.00    81.72     5.09    29.58    18.94    65.64    97.62    74.75P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             32   57  +23       1.01    54.33     4.21    81.86     5.18    31.78    20.05    68.45    97.34    76.88P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       32   52  +17       0.45    52.01     5.59    73.55     5.16    20.42     1.16    11.51    66.25    24.95P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         31   52  +13       3.19    64.75     3.75    75.07     5.43    16.76     2.24    17.39    73.48    30.11P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     31   51  +17       6.59    78.56    14.34    71.99     5.34    17.64     0.72     7.33    53.98    15.81P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           31   51  +12       1.52    57.33     1.73    74.24     5.42    15.90     1.71    13.69    68.28    27.30P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          31   50  +17      -3.65    32.98     0.39    76.43     5.36    25.63     4.23    26.63    83.16    44.98P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        32   47   -4       4.27    69.63    -2.33    64.66     5.03    -6.25     0.01     0.21     7.49     1.48P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   45   +5       2.69    62.65     5.52    64.14     5.39     2.80     0.01     0.35     8.61     1.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Grimsby          32   43   -3       3.88    68.80     3.62    60.49     5.03    -5.41     0.00     0.02     1.57     0.24P    0.02R    0.00  
Swindon          31   43   -5       0.22    51.67    -5.47    64.84     5.32    -3.24     0.00     0.21     9.31     1.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   30   43   -9       6.03    77.58    -2.33    62.08     5.51   -13.46     0.00     0.12     4.12     0.71P    0.03R    0.00  
Oldham           30   42   +8      -6.24    22.70    -2.59    67.76     5.60    13.59     0.12     1.86    25.27     8.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Crewe            31   42   -4       2.38    61.72     0.62    61.90     5.31    -5.00     0.00     0.05     3.41     0.62P    0.03R    0.00  
Northampton      32   38   -4      -6.47    22.86    -4.68    58.26     5.20    -2.54     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.13P    0.24R    0.04  
Crawley_Town     32   37  -10      -1.56    43.44    -1.86    53.90     5.05   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    2.11R    0.44  
Cheltenham       31   35  -12      -2.03    40.88    -3.12    53.08     5.28   -15.90     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    3.37R    0.68  
Cambridge_Utd    31   35  -21      -0.75    46.92   -11.06    52.35     5.20   -25.83     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    5.06R    1.18  
Port_Vale        31   33  -11      -4.30    30.33    -4.07    51.58     5.19   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.58R    1.40  
Yeovil           31   30   -8      -7.05    19.33    -0.15    48.00     5.15   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.50R    5.12  
Morecambe        31   29  -18      -4.13    30.47    -3.92    45.84     5.14   -23.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.94R   12.87  
Macclesfield     32   28  -21      -2.22    40.33     0.19    41.26     4.72   -30.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.15R   42.35  
Notts_County     31   25  -29      -9.81    10.89   -16.29    42.29     5.23   -34.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.95R   35.91  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 9 February 2019, Aldershot 1 3 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      32   61  +30       4.99    72.34    12.23    85.80     5.01    38.38    46.54    94.57    62.17P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     32   60  +20      13.05    94.01    15.22    81.43     5.13    23.42    12.88    76.94    25.60P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            32   59  +16       9.61    87.75     7.83    80.43     4.97    19.48     8.47    69.91    23.63P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          32   57  +25       2.46    61.18     9.11    81.76     5.03    33.34    15.83    81.36    36.21P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       32   57  +24       6.03    75.44    13.22    79.83     5.30    29.44     8.99    67.72    23.51P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      31   55   +8       9.17    86.41     2.99    77.93     5.27    11.68     4.06    48.60    13.45P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     31   53  +18       6.06    75.30    11.44    76.18     5.55    22.07     2.94    39.66    10.71P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          33   52   +9       2.46    61.33     2.40    70.31     4.89     9.88     0.08     7.17     1.68P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          32   52   -1      10.24    88.40     1.93    71.05     5.04    -1.23     0.17     8.05     1.46P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   32   47  +12      -1.19    44.42     5.36    68.83     5.19    15.88     0.04     5.02     1.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Barrow             32   42   -2       0.39    52.66     0.67    59.51     5.01    -4.03     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.65R    0.00  
Bromley            32   41   -2      -3.31    35.27    -2.62    60.33     5.17    -1.91     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.56R    0.00  
Hartlepool         32   40   -8      -1.52    43.17    -4.81    56.71     5.00   -11.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.10R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          32   39   -2      -6.50    22.01    -4.70    59.11     5.19    -0.73     0.00     0.03     0.00     1.16R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       32   39   -4      -4.89    28.17    -4.80    57.39     5.06    -4.83     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.15R    0.01  
Halifax            31   35   -6      -1.29    44.13     1.57    52.83     5.09    -9.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.42R    0.14  
Barnet             27   35   -7      -5.11    25.45   -11.85    62.65     6.20    -4.49     0.00     0.86     0.25P    0.75R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    32   34   -9      -2.50    39.64     3.00    49.24     5.10   -15.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.36R    0.96  
Maidenhead         32   34  -21      -1.20    45.05    -7.69    48.30     4.86   -29.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.69R    1.39  
Chesterfield       31   33   -7     -11.81     8.03   -10.71    54.69     5.43    -5.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.10R    0.10  
Dover_Athletic     33   33  -18      -9.33    13.61   -14.05    50.20     4.87   -18.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.61R    0.67  
Aldershot          31   28  -25      -8.21    15.27   -16.10    45.74     5.19   -28.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.80R    6.51  
Maidstone_United   32   26  -26      -5.45    24.69    -7.47    40.07     4.79   -33.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.83R   31.29  
Braintree_Town     32   25  -24      -4.82    27.99    -2.18    37.28     4.71   -34.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.82R   58.91