Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 9 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 6 February 2019, Everton 0 2 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         26   62  +48       1.58    58.54     2.47    90.43     3.80    70.01    47.83    92.81    99.70    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        25   62  +41       9.15    92.62     9.76    90.92     4.28    59.96    49.17    92.14    99.61    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   57  +27       5.94    80.86    -0.31    82.49     4.51    39.44     2.97    14.55    84.76    96.11   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   50  +22       2.19    61.67     0.97    73.30     4.63    30.38     0.01     0.32     8.07    44.77    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   48  +14       1.43    57.18    -5.10    72.16     4.69    23.97     0.01     0.12     4.05    32.39    99.15     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   47  +15       3.04    66.40    -0.90    71.33     4.82    25.34     0.00     0.06     3.81    26.75    98.61     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   38   +1       7.14    84.41     7.57    55.44     4.81    -0.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.24     0.00     0.00  
Watford          25   34   -1       3.92    71.67     6.57    49.44     4.60    -6.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          26   33   -2      -2.75    35.43    -0.31    47.99     4.63    -4.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.07R    0.00  
Bournemouth      25   33   -7       2.96    66.75     2.14    48.35     4.65   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.06R    0.00  
Leicester        25   32   -1      -1.51    42.03     1.20    50.33     4.77    -1.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03R    0.00  
West_Ham         25   32   -7       2.25    63.10     1.67    47.82     4.57   -11.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.10R    0.00  
Brighton         25   27   -9      -0.41    48.51     2.20    41.77     4.49   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.23R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   25   26   -7      -3.90    29.07     0.72    41.93     4.66   -10.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.13R    0.01  
Newcastle        25   24  -12      -4.45    25.86    -2.46    40.68     4.76   -13.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.37R    0.02  
Southampton      25   24  -15      -3.72    29.93    -3.37    39.75     4.63   -18.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.93R    0.02  
Burnley          25   24  -20      -3.59    30.41    -8.55    36.53     4.43   -28.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.18R    0.09  
Cardiff          25   22  -24      -0.39    49.23    -3.07    33.17     4.37   -35.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.42R    0.83  
Fulham           25   17  -30      -5.21    21.67    -5.14    27.39     4.32   -43.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.57R   11.03  
Huddersfield     25   11  -33      -7.45     9.39    -6.08    19.99     3.95   -47.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   88.00  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Birmingham 2 0 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         30   57  +18      10.62    89.88    10.27    83.47     5.61    24.95    34.17    57.64    96.34    65.81P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   57  +16      10.94    90.93     8.79    81.59     5.56    19.91    21.34    41.78    92.91    52.33P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   54  +19       5.89    76.28     8.66    79.31     5.57    24.05    12.94    28.99    87.19    42.79P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       29   50  +21      -2.31    38.43     1.62    80.15     5.79    31.69    18.18    36.50    89.52    54.23P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   29   50  +12       2.33    61.33     0.64    78.44     5.65    19.30     9.86    23.13    82.57    40.66P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    29   47   +8       4.12    69.56     3.48    70.79     5.74     8.67     0.77     2.59    31.74     8.53P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   47   +5       2.26    61.03    -2.32    74.57     5.75    11.31     2.36     7.50    58.28    20.07P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      30   43   +9       4.97    73.39    13.61    64.19     5.54     7.75     0.01     0.13     6.02     1.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   43   +7      -4.88    27.76    -3.13    67.72     5.71    11.07     0.19     0.84    17.76     5.38P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            30   43   +5      -0.51    47.75     1.71    65.94     5.54     6.27     0.07     0.31     9.89     2.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   -4       3.44    66.25    -1.10    64.65     5.64    -4.67     0.02     0.12     6.07     1.24P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   42   +7       1.27    56.46     7.74    63.48     5.56     6.22     0.01     0.08     4.75     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         30   41   +3      -4.54    29.34    -3.48    65.42     5.60     6.62     0.05     0.25     8.44     2.38P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             29   39   -6       3.53    67.61     0.92    59.65     5.65   -10.33     0.00     0.01     0.99     0.16P    0.13R    0.00  
Stoke           30   38   -6      -4.18    30.88    -7.42    60.37     5.58    -5.15     0.00     0.01     1.11     0.30P    0.08R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   38  -11       1.17    56.47    -6.30    60.28     5.77   -12.71     0.01     0.02     1.31     0.28P    0.13R    0.00  
Brentford       29   37   +7      -7.29    18.41     0.47    62.38     5.85    10.04     0.02     0.08     4.08     1.06P    0.05R    0.00  
Preston         30   37   +0      -5.23    26.61    -1.47    59.65     5.62     0.90     0.00     0.01     1.01     0.21P    0.08R    0.00  
Wigan           30   32  -14      -5.46    25.66    -8.55    52.86     5.54   -15.52     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    2.98R    0.06  
Millwall        29   30  -10      -6.69    19.98    -5.26    49.99     5.63   -15.09     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     6.74R    0.22  
Rotherham       30   26  -20      -3.16    34.96    -0.84    40.58     5.10   -31.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.54R    9.29  
Reading         30   25  -12      -9.25    12.15    -1.16    42.84     5.33   -18.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.13R    4.43  
Bolton          30   23  -26      -3.50    32.16    -4.16    37.07     4.89   -37.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.70R   28.57  
Ipswich         30   18  -28     -13.02     3.80   -12.70    33.92     5.15   -37.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.42R   57.42  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Barnsley 2 0 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                31   65  +34       9.26    86.28    14.00    93.64     5.32    46.37    56.72    83.77    99.98    89.07P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             30   59  +27       3.64    66.62     5.58    88.44     5.54    38.03    16.73    46.06    99.66    65.50P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           30   58  +19      10.74    90.18    10.06    83.45     5.61    24.18     3.45    13.61    97.15    31.93P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           28   56  +23       4.72    72.03     3.64    89.50     5.99    36.31    22.58    53.32    99.59    69.26P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             31   54  +15       5.04    72.39     5.61    78.71     5.45    21.06     0.46     2.77    87.95    22.37P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         31   49   +8       2.16    60.28     1.80    71.97     5.45    11.49     0.01     0.11    44.15     8.50P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            29   47  +14       3.08    64.76     7.90    72.47     5.83    17.05     0.05     0.34    51.01     9.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            29   43   +4       1.95    59.90     1.81    65.89     5.69     3.57     0.00     0.00    10.73     1.93P    0.18R    0.00  
Wycombe              31   43   -1       4.55    70.77     5.36    60.63     5.29    -5.76     0.00     0.00     1.34     0.18P    1.79R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       31   42   +8      -3.28    35.06     4.00    63.42     5.37     9.25     0.00     0.00     5.03     1.03P    0.42R    0.00  
Coventry             31   40   -5       2.55    62.79     1.60    57.14     5.17    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    7.74R    0.14  
Southend             30   38   +2      -4.29    30.36     0.49    59.55     5.59     1.42     0.00     0.00     1.49     0.23P    3.31R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        30   38   +0      -4.11    31.45    -1.43    58.02     5.53    -2.86     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.10P    5.72R    0.11  
Scunthorpe           31   37  -18      -2.44    39.29   -12.72    57.70     5.43   -17.97     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.07P    8.40R    0.32  
Accrington_Stanley   28   36   -9       3.86    69.73    -0.25    56.23     5.84   -15.54     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.03P   14.05R    0.69  
Plymouth             31   36  -13      -1.50    43.68    -4.94    53.01     5.25   -18.64     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    28.65R    1.59  
Walsall              30   35  -13      -0.38    48.88    -4.13    53.63     5.42   -17.99     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   24.86R    1.64  
Rochdale             31   34  -24      -0.07    50.61   -10.00    51.24     5.25   -29.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.69R    4.43  
Gillingham           30   33   -9      -3.96    32.04    -2.19    52.29     5.51   -13.42     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   32.11R    2.67  
Bristol_Rovers       30   32   -4      -6.72    20.54    -0.55    51.84     5.48    -6.95     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   33.13R    2.86  
Oxford_Utd           30   32   -9      -5.84    24.01    -3.62    52.89     5.61   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   27.94R    2.21  
Bradford             31   32  -15      -5.68    24.67    -7.33    50.55     5.33   -18.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   44.94R    4.79  
Shrewsbury           30   31  -10      -7.55    17.51    -6.50    52.81     5.54   -10.11     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   28.03R    2.21  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   23  -24      -7.06    17.57    -8.20    39.90     5.26   -31.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.04R   76.24  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 February 2019, Cheltenham 1 0 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     30   60  +24       9.72    88.23    10.39    86.86     5.55    31.40    51.02    86.11    99.54    89.48P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        31   58  +24       4.86    72.11     8.55    83.53     5.22    31.25    24.37    72.72    98.64    80.45P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             31   54  +22      -0.03    49.48     4.25    80.77     5.45    31.54    12.04    54.26    95.45    66.76P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   51  +18       7.88    83.33    15.27    74.10     5.54    19.81     1.37    12.15    68.43    22.11P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         30   51  +13       3.60    66.74     3.78    75.73     5.65    17.18     2.36    18.11    76.52    31.51P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   50  +18      -2.42    38.16     1.20    78.56     5.57    27.77     6.93    36.56    90.23    54.35P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           30   50  +12       1.88    58.96     1.67    74.31     5.62    15.49     1.37    12.18    68.03    26.05P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   49  +14       0.10    50.47     4.54    72.23     5.37    17.93     0.48     6.50    55.93    18.57P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        31   47   -2       5.00    72.83    -1.19    66.07     5.25    -4.21     0.02     0.43    12.74     2.44P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         30   42   +3       1.87    59.36     4.74    62.41     5.55     0.59     0.00     0.09     5.44     0.95P    0.02R    0.00  
Crewe            30   41   -4       2.95    64.97     0.76    62.44     5.51    -4.67     0.00     0.07     4.47     0.78P    0.03R    0.00  
Grimsby          31   40   -5       3.04    65.31     2.73    58.23     5.23    -8.17     0.00     0.01     0.75     0.11P    0.21R    0.03  
Swindon          30   40   -6      -1.33    43.84    -6.41    62.35     5.51    -5.55     0.00     0.07     4.53     1.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County   29   40  -10       4.59    72.48    -2.91    59.86     5.69   -15.36     0.01     0.04     2.14     0.33P    0.22R    0.02  
Oldham           29   39   +5      -6.49    21.60    -3.58    65.74     5.88     9.97     0.03     0.69    16.09     4.89P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton      31   37   -4      -6.27    23.25    -4.93    58.02     5.38    -3.53     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.14P    0.29R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     31   37   -7      -1.33    44.04    -0.62    55.59     5.25   -10.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.94R    0.15  
Cheltenham       30   35   -9      -2.15    40.28    -2.43    54.57     5.50   -12.78     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    1.94R    0.35  
Port_Vale        30   33  -10      -3.38    34.01    -3.67    52.89     5.36   -12.85     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    3.78R    0.73  
Cambridge_Utd    30   32  -22      -2.14    40.04   -11.58    50.83     5.37   -26.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     8.96R    2.17  
Yeovil           30   30   -6      -6.04    22.83     1.20    49.84     5.39    -9.07     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    9.40R    2.25  
Morecambe        30   29  -17      -3.38    33.90    -4.00    46.77     5.30   -22.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.08R    8.28  
Macclesfield     31   27  -21      -1.92    41.41    -0.18    41.28     4.93   -30.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.97R   35.48  
Notts_County     30   22  -30     -11.64     6.51   -17.59    40.05     5.43   -36.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.12R   50.47  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Dover_Athletic 1 2 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      31   60  +30       5.59    75.05    12.55    86.57     5.24    38.95    49.03    96.35    64.06P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       31   57  +25       7.26    79.73    13.96    82.06     5.52    31.83    16.19    82.50    32.63P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     31   57  +19      11.51    91.62    14.41    79.46     5.29    21.95     6.41    67.63    18.41P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          31   56  +25       3.07    64.08     9.45    82.84     5.22    34.45    19.96    87.83    41.44P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   56  +15       8.53    85.30     7.55    78.96     5.16    18.74     4.75    62.75    18.72P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +7       8.01    83.43     2.67    75.89     5.49    10.12     1.86    37.49     9.12P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          32   51   +9       3.03    64.20     2.70    71.46     5.14    10.96     0.15    13.38     3.04P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       4.83    71.37    11.05    74.33     5.72    20.72     1.41    31.83     7.80P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          31   49   -3       9.20    86.62     0.79    69.05     5.22    -3.80     0.05     5.40     0.89P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   47  +13       0.05    50.29     6.14    70.52     5.37    17.36     0.16    11.73     3.04P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   41   -2       0.61    53.39     0.50    59.94     5.24    -3.93     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.84R    0.00  
Bromley            31   40   -2      -3.09    36.04    -2.80    60.65     5.38    -1.99     0.00     0.16     0.04P    0.62R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          31   39   -1      -5.78    24.34    -4.56    60.41     5.35     0.25     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.67R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   39   -3      -3.83    32.13    -4.15    59.00     5.31    -3.49     0.00     0.05     0.02P    1.36R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   39   -8      -1.23    44.46    -4.96    56.68     5.15   -11.92     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.45R    0.00  
Halifax            30   35   -5      -0.48    48.34     1.95    53.89     5.29    -8.67     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.72R    0.04  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -4.02    30.00   -11.26    64.51     6.45    -2.84     0.03     2.57     0.73P    0.48R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    31   33   -9      -2.48    39.38     2.68    48.95     5.29   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.85R    0.68  
Dover_Athletic     32   33  -17      -8.24    16.18   -13.49    51.70     5.08   -17.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.45R    0.18  
Maidenhead         31   31  -22      -2.68    37.85    -8.26    46.36     5.03   -30.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.52R    2.24  
Chesterfield       30   30   -8     -12.92     5.69   -10.97    53.36     5.58    -5.77     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.09R    0.15  
Aldershot          30   28  -23      -7.55    16.59   -15.27    47.47     5.40   -26.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.16R    2.31  
Maidstone_United   31   25  -26      -5.52    24.24    -7.99    39.81     4.96   -34.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.77R   23.95  
Braintree_Town     31   22  -25      -6.31    21.35    -2.65    34.88     4.90   -37.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.01R   70.45