Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 8 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 6 February 2019, Everton 0 2 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         26   62  +48       1.56    58.61     2.44    90.41     3.82    70.00    47.90    92.43    99.63    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        25   62  +41       9.26    92.83     9.94    90.89     4.27    59.87    49.10    92.05    99.62    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   57  +27       5.91    80.71    -0.34    82.53     4.49    39.49     2.98    14.95    84.75    96.04   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   50  +22       2.13    61.41     0.94    73.31     4.62    30.41     0.02     0.37     7.86    44.27    99.56     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   48  +14       1.24    56.59    -5.44    72.27     4.69    24.15     0.00     0.15     4.25    32.78    99.22     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   47  +15       2.99    66.03    -1.04    71.41     4.81    25.47     0.00     0.05     3.89    26.95    98.75     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   38   +1       7.13    84.02     7.53    55.43     4.82    -0.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.04     0.00     0.00  
Watford          25   34   -1       4.10    72.34     6.81    49.43     4.61    -6.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          26   33   -2      -2.75    35.23    -0.39    47.99     4.59    -4.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth      25   33   -7       2.77    65.73     1.81    48.44     4.67   -12.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.06R    0.00  
Leicester        25   32   -1      -1.36    43.06     1.41    50.26     4.78    -1.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham         25   32   -7       2.21    62.96     1.63    47.80     4.57   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10R    0.00  
Brighton         25   27   -9      -0.27    49.18     2.40    41.73     4.51   -14.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.21R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   26   -7      -4.04    28.39     0.52    41.96     4.66   -10.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.96R    0.00  
Newcastle        25   24  -12      -4.45    25.80    -2.51    40.64     4.76   -13.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.29R    0.01  
Southampton      25   24  -15      -3.73    29.72    -3.30    39.68     4.64   -18.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.22R    0.01  
Burnley          25   24  -20      -3.49    30.57    -8.38    36.48     4.40   -28.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.28R    0.06  
Cardiff          25   22  -24      -0.45    48.76    -3.10    33.17     4.34   -35.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.45R    0.79  
Fulham           25   17  -30      -5.14    22.43    -4.95    27.38     4.33   -43.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.46R   11.03  
Huddersfield     25   11  -33      -7.38     9.71    -5.99    19.99     3.95   -47.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   88.09  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Birmingham 2 0 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         30   57  +18      10.42    89.35     9.95    83.57     5.59    25.10    34.77    58.49    96.58    66.77P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   57  +16      10.90    90.64     8.70    81.59     5.59    19.89    21.56    41.87    92.87    52.16P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   54  +19       6.04    77.00     8.89    79.24     5.54    23.93    12.53    28.33    86.84    42.05P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       29   50  +21      -2.29    38.67     1.68    80.10     5.85    31.61    17.99    36.55    89.21    54.17P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   29   50  +12       2.28    61.26     0.56    78.40     5.69    19.31     9.55    22.97    81.98    40.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    29   47   +8       3.99    68.96     3.23    70.99     5.76     8.96     0.89     2.89    33.07     9.45P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   47   +5       2.32    61.18    -2.22    74.50     5.72    11.17     2.35     7.12    57.81    19.63P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      30   43   +9       4.91    73.21    13.54    64.25     5.57     7.85     0.02     0.15     6.20     1.13P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   43   +7      -4.84    27.79    -3.08    67.72     5.71    11.07     0.17     0.78    17.67     5.21P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            30   43   +5      -0.58    47.52     1.67    65.96     5.54     6.27     0.08     0.30    10.02     2.36P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   -4       3.44    66.36    -1.11    64.56     5.62    -4.71     0.02     0.08     5.68     1.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   42   +7       1.12    55.97     7.54    63.57     5.56     6.34     0.01     0.09     4.86     0.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         30   41   +3      -4.76    28.69    -3.82    65.55     5.61     6.83     0.04     0.23     8.82     2.47P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             29   39   -6       3.41    67.03     0.71    59.70     5.64   -10.25     0.00     0.01     1.04     0.19P    0.12R    0.00  
Stoke           30   38   -6      -4.16    31.11    -7.45    60.45     5.65    -5.12     0.00     0.01     1.27     0.32P    0.09R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   38  -11       1.23    56.89    -6.20    60.24     5.74   -12.76     0.00     0.02     1.24     0.22P    0.12R    0.00  
Brentford       29   37   +7      -6.98    19.70     0.92    62.23     5.87     9.81     0.01     0.07     3.82     1.02P    0.03R    0.00  
Preston         30   37   +0      -5.28    26.34    -1.52    59.74     5.57     1.01     0.00     0.01     1.00     0.24P    0.09R    0.00  
Wigan           30   32  -14      -5.55    25.29    -8.69    52.92     5.54   -15.45     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    2.78R    0.07  
Millwall        29   30  -10      -6.60    20.40    -5.16    49.92     5.62   -15.16     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     6.65R    0.19  
Rotherham       30   26  -20      -3.18    35.14    -0.79    40.54     5.11   -32.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.45R    9.30  
Reading         30   25  -12      -9.03    12.36    -0.86    42.76     5.33   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.23R    4.36  
Bolton          30   23  -26      -3.32    33.25    -3.89    36.99     4.89   -37.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.04R   28.96  
Ipswich         30   18  -28     -12.94     3.77   -12.61    33.88     5.13   -37.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.37R   57.12  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Barnsley 2 0 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                31   65  +34       9.36    86.50    14.17    93.58     5.31    46.24    56.88    83.51    99.99    88.72P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             30   59  +27       3.58    65.99     5.50    88.42     5.56    38.07    16.69    45.85    99.69    65.10P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           30   58  +19      10.60    90.08     9.90    83.50     5.64    24.25     3.73    14.21    97.17    32.61P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           28   56  +23       4.90    72.62     3.85    89.48     5.98    36.21    22.20    53.14    99.60    69.11P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             31   54  +15       4.96    72.21     5.47    78.76     5.41    21.12     0.45     2.75    88.32    22.77P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         31   49   +8       2.31    60.76     2.00    71.91     5.48    11.39     0.02     0.14    43.57     8.32P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            29   47  +14       3.00    64.22     7.84    72.50     5.85    17.10     0.04     0.40    51.21     9.98P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            29   43   +4       2.14    60.97     2.06    65.79     5.67     3.42     0.00     0.01    10.68     1.72P    0.18R    0.00  
Wycombe              31   43   -1       4.55    70.91     5.32    60.64     5.29    -5.68     0.00     0.00     1.40     0.19P    1.87R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       31   42   +8      -3.29    35.18     3.98    63.41     5.38     9.24     0.00     0.00     4.87     0.93P    0.43R    0.00  
Coventry             31   40   -5       2.67    63.49     1.80    57.05     5.19   -10.01     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04P    8.16R    0.15  
Southend             30   38   +2      -4.13    30.93     0.72    59.49     5.57     1.31     0.00     0.00     1.47     0.21P    3.27R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        30   38   +0      -4.42    30.10    -1.89    58.16     5.54    -2.65     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.15P    5.50R    0.13  
Scunthorpe           31   37  -18      -2.63    38.18   -12.99    57.78     5.46   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.06P    8.49R    0.33  
Accrington_Stanley   28   36   -9       3.70    68.92    -0.43    56.30     5.76   -15.45     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.05P   13.36R    0.61  
Plymouth             31   36  -13      -1.52    43.45    -4.91    53.02     5.23   -18.63     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   28.20R    1.55  
Walsall              30   35  -13      -0.27    49.33    -3.91    53.63     5.44   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   25.02R    1.65  
Rochdale             31   34  -24      -0.03    50.76    -9.96    51.20     5.24   -29.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   43.31R    4.43  
Gillingham           30   33   -9      -3.90    32.22    -2.21    52.32     5.48   -13.33     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   32.12R    2.63  
Bristol_Rovers       30   32   -4      -6.72    20.46    -0.51    51.80     5.44    -7.03     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   33.16R    2.88  
Oxford_Utd           30   32   -9      -6.00    23.30    -3.83    52.94     5.62   -10.67     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   27.79R    2.24  
Bradford             31   32  -15      -5.52    25.45    -7.15    50.53     5.29   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.12R    4.90  
Shrewsbury           30   31  -10      -7.60    17.23    -6.54    52.81     5.53   -10.10     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   28.01R    2.19  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   23  -24      -7.10    17.55    -8.27    39.94     5.26   -31.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.01R   76.23  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 February 2019, Cheltenham 1 0 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     30   60  +24       9.55    87.98    10.20    86.93     5.54    31.52    50.81    86.49    99.58    89.93P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        31   58  +24       4.75    71.88     8.37    83.66     5.27    31.42    25.31    73.20    98.78    80.73P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             31   54  +22       0.22    50.66     4.59    80.63     5.42    31.33    11.30    53.31    95.19    65.83P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   51  +18       8.03    83.81    15.45    74.02     5.53    19.66     1.38    11.72    68.00    21.84P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         30   51  +13       3.50    66.48     3.54    75.79     5.64    17.25     2.41    18.28    76.53    31.72P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   50  +18      -2.26    38.70     1.48    78.48     5.59    27.63     6.76    36.33    89.79    53.99P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           30   50  +12       1.86    58.91     1.64    74.37     5.63    15.56     1.45    12.49    68.23    26.11P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   49  +14       0.01    50.19     4.41    72.27     5.37    17.98     0.51     6.72    56.27    18.89P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        31   47   -2       4.96    72.47    -1.26    66.08     5.27    -4.20     0.02     0.46    12.78     2.53P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         30   42   +3       1.82    59.35     4.65    62.44     5.61     0.66     0.00     0.13     5.61     1.12P    0.03R    0.00  
Crewe            30   41   -4       3.00    65.25     0.85    62.39     5.50    -4.74     0.00     0.06     4.47     0.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Grimsby          31   40   -5       2.93    64.97     2.57    58.32     5.20    -8.07     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.10P    0.19R    0.01  
Swindon          30   40   -6      -1.41    43.83    -6.46    62.44     5.54    -5.42     0.00     0.07     4.79     0.95P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County   29   40  -10       4.57    72.34    -3.01    59.96     5.69   -15.20     0.00     0.04     2.09     0.34P    0.18R    0.03  
Oldham           29   39   +5      -6.56    21.51    -3.69    65.77     5.86    10.03     0.03     0.70    16.08     4.90P    0.01R    0.00  
Northampton      31   37   -4      -6.26    23.41    -4.92    58.04     5.37    -3.48     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.14P    0.33R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     31   37   -7      -1.14    45.52    -0.29    55.42     5.21   -10.20     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    1.09R    0.14  
Cheltenham       30   35   -9      -1.87    41.41    -2.06    54.44     5.46   -12.99     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P    1.89R    0.31  
Port_Vale        30   33  -10      -3.59    33.27    -3.93    53.04     5.36   -12.65     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    3.36R    0.64  
Cambridge_Utd    30   32  -22      -2.07    40.42   -11.47    50.76     5.33   -26.82     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     8.83R    2.01  
Yeovil           30   30   -6      -6.11    22.23     1.01    49.84     5.39    -9.04     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.35R    2.36  
Morecambe        30   29  -17      -3.43    33.61    -4.06    46.78     5.28   -23.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.86R    8.00  
Macclesfield     31   27  -21      -1.95    41.36    -0.17    41.24     4.94   -30.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.06R   35.32  
Notts_County     30   22  -30     -11.54     6.70   -17.43    39.95     5.43   -36.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.77R   51.12  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Dover_Athletic 1 2 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      31   60  +30       5.47    74.57    12.40    86.69     5.23    39.16    49.72    96.61    64.84P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       31   57  +25       7.44    80.01    14.17    82.03     5.56    31.75    15.83    82.30    32.46P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     31   57  +19      11.39    91.42    14.31    79.41     5.34    21.92     6.25    66.97    17.70P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          31   56  +25       3.12    64.51     9.50    82.83     5.24    34.46    19.69    87.87    41.55P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   56  +15       8.43    84.89     7.43    79.03     5.18    18.82     4.82    63.34    18.97P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +7       7.86    83.02     2.51    75.89     5.51    10.15     1.90    37.53     9.10P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          32   51   +9       2.98    63.76     2.65    71.43     5.11    10.95     0.15    13.38     2.97P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       5.07    72.17    11.43    74.23     5.76    20.60     1.44    31.37     7.76P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          31   49   -3       9.34    86.81     0.99    69.02     5.22    -3.87     0.06     5.34     0.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   47  +13      -0.15    49.62     5.89    70.57     5.38    17.44     0.13    12.12     2.98P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   41   -2       0.70    53.73     0.63    59.95     5.26    -3.95     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.76R    0.00  
Bromley            31   40   -2      -3.15    35.62    -2.92    60.66     5.41    -1.97     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.67R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          31   39   -1      -5.83    24.32    -4.60    60.47     5.41     0.35     0.00     0.17     0.05P    0.78R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   39   -3      -4.05    31.55    -4.43    59.15     5.26    -3.30     0.00     0.10     0.02P    1.16R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   39   -8      -1.23    44.62    -4.93    56.68     5.20   -11.96     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.56R    0.00  
Halifax            30   35   -5      -0.58    47.79     1.78    53.89     5.28    -8.64     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.71R    0.04  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -4.05    29.76   -11.34    64.56     6.44    -2.75     0.02     2.58     0.68P    0.45R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    31   33   -9      -2.52    39.11     2.63    49.00     5.31   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.18R    0.72  
Dover_Athletic     32   33  -17      -8.17    16.44   -13.41    51.57     5.07   -17.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.19R    0.20  
Maidenhead         31   31  -22      -2.63    37.92    -8.21    46.32     5.07   -30.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.26R    2.32  
Chesterfield       30   30   -8     -12.88     5.64   -10.92    53.32     5.60    -5.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.06R    0.14  
Aldershot          30   28  -23      -7.53    16.94   -15.27    47.46     5.43   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.37R    2.25  
Maidstone_United   31   25  -26      -5.34    24.91    -7.69    39.76     4.96   -34.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.85R   24.11  
Braintree_Town     31   22  -25      -6.25    21.42    -2.59    34.86     4.92   -37.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.00R   70.21