Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 7 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 6 February 2019, Everton 0 2 Man_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Man_City         26   62  +48       1.59    58.89     2.45    90.44     3.82    70.07    48.32    92.54    99.72    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        25   62  +41       9.15    92.63     9.67    90.89     4.28    59.92    48.75    92.07    99.67    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   57  +27       5.87    80.69    -0.42    82.50     4.50    39.48     2.91    14.88    84.75    95.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   50  +22       2.11    61.22     0.88    73.36     4.63    30.47     0.01     0.32     7.98    45.04    99.54     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   48  +14       1.28    56.64    -5.39    72.22     4.69    24.09     0.00     0.13     4.10    32.47    99.19     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   47  +15       3.07    66.74    -0.87    71.36     4.80    25.37     0.00     0.05     3.79    26.53    98.71     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   38   +1       7.09    83.91     7.50    55.41     4.80    -0.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     2.16     0.00     0.00  
Watford          25   34   -1       4.01    71.99     6.71    49.43     4.54    -6.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03R    0.00  
Everton          26   33   -2      -2.76    35.26    -0.39    47.96     4.61    -4.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.10R    0.00  
Bournemouth      25   33   -7       3.00    66.96     2.26    48.31     4.66   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.07R    0.00  
Leicester        25   32   -1      -1.36    43.11     1.48    50.23     4.77    -1.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham         25   32   -7       2.10    62.36     1.49    47.87     4.54   -11.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.10R    0.00  
Brighton         25   27   -9      -0.25    49.48     2.42    41.71     4.49   -14.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.27R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   26   -7      -3.80    29.56     0.90    41.91     4.65   -10.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.22R    0.00  
Newcastle        25   24  -12      -4.51    25.70    -2.61    40.76     4.76   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.21R    0.01  
Southampton      25   24  -15      -3.90    29.12    -3.60    39.81     4.65   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.83R    0.02  
Burnley          25   24  -20      -3.39    31.48    -8.26    36.45     4.39   -28.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.40R    0.09  
Cardiff          25   22  -24      -0.47    48.72    -3.19    33.17     4.35   -35.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.32R    0.84  
Fulham           25   17  -30      -5.22    21.61    -5.07    27.39     4.34   -43.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.57R   10.97  
Huddersfield     25   11  -33      -7.40     9.56    -5.97    20.00     3.94   -47.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.87R   88.06  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Birmingham 2 0 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         30   57  +18      10.44    89.44     9.98    83.52     5.55    25.04    34.55    58.20    96.71    66.72P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   57  +16      10.77    90.62     8.52    81.67     5.60    20.06    22.03    42.42    93.21    52.93P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   54  +19       6.20    77.17     9.14    79.16     5.54    23.82    12.39    28.20    86.72    41.91P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       29   50  +21      -2.29    38.70     1.67    80.11     5.81    31.63    18.07    36.95    89.53    54.46P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   29   50  +12       2.40    61.84     0.72    78.35     5.65    19.21     9.38    22.50    82.17    40.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    29   47   +8       4.09    69.32     3.46    70.86     5.75     8.76     0.82     2.73    32.54     9.04P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   47   +5       2.40    61.68    -2.12    74.50     5.75    11.18     2.39     7.24    58.14    19.65P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      30   43   +9       4.83    73.20    13.46    64.25     5.50     7.86     0.01     0.09     5.86     1.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   43   +7      -4.87    27.82    -3.17    67.78     5.67    11.16     0.20     0.81    17.99     5.33P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            30   43   +5      -0.48    47.92     1.76    65.97     5.52     6.34     0.05     0.28    10.00     2.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   -4       3.53    66.84    -0.97    64.55     5.62    -4.79     0.02     0.13     5.66     1.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   42   +7       1.26    56.62     7.77    63.51     5.54     6.24     0.02     0.08     4.75     0.97P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         30   41   +3      -4.69    28.79    -3.75    65.49     5.60     6.72     0.05     0.27     8.46     2.36P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             29   39   -6       3.57    67.92     1.01    59.63     5.62   -10.36     0.00     0.02     1.00     0.19P    0.13R    0.00  
Stoke           30   38   -6      -4.07    31.32    -7.30    60.37     5.58    -5.20     0.00     0.01     1.11     0.27P    0.06R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   38  -11       1.29    57.12    -6.12    60.21     5.77   -12.78     0.01     0.02     1.29     0.24P    0.15R    0.00  
Brentford       29   37   +7      -6.85    20.12     1.14    62.12     5.85     9.68     0.01     0.05     3.72     0.96P    0.03R    0.00  
Preston         30   37   +0      -5.48    25.22    -1.83    59.84     5.58     1.16     0.00     0.01     1.08     0.26P    0.08R    0.00  
Wigan           30   32  -14      -5.85    23.98    -9.17    53.03     5.52   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    2.74R    0.06  
Millwall        29   30  -10      -6.59    19.98    -5.12    49.95     5.66   -15.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     6.68R    0.21  
Rotherham       30   26  -20      -3.29    34.54    -1.02    40.66     5.10   -31.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.10R    9.17  
Reading         30   25  -12      -9.14    12.12    -1.04    42.75     5.38   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.12R    4.35  
Bolton          30   23  -26      -3.61    31.85    -4.37    37.11     4.92   -37.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.44R   28.45  
Ipswich         30   18  -28     -12.98     3.74   -12.66    33.87     5.14   -37.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.45R   57.76  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Barnsley 2 0 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                31   65  +34       9.29    86.36    14.08    93.65     5.32    46.33    57.11    83.81    99.98    88.99P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             30   59  +27       3.68    66.62     5.64    88.40     5.55    37.96    16.36    45.29    99.68    64.61P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           30   58  +19      10.51    89.89     9.73    83.59     5.59    24.37     3.43    14.15    97.23    32.50P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           28   56  +23       4.76    71.85     3.63    89.55     5.95    36.33    22.60    53.58    99.61    69.32P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             31   54  +15       4.88    71.95     5.36    78.74     5.42    21.13     0.44     2.65    87.91    22.57P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         31   49   +8       2.28    60.65     1.94    71.91     5.45    11.44     0.00     0.11    43.26     8.10P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            29   47  +14       2.75    63.09     7.44    72.68     5.83    17.35     0.06     0.40    52.04    10.49P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            29   43   +4       1.99    60.18     1.88    65.90     5.65     3.57     0.00     0.01    10.55     1.78P    0.22R    0.00  
Wycombe              31   43   -1       4.62    71.21     5.41    60.62     5.28    -5.72     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.18P    1.87R    0.01  
Fleetwood_Town       31   42   +8      -3.14    35.59     4.21    63.44     5.38     9.31     0.00     0.00     4.98     0.91P    0.45R    0.00  
Coventry             31   40   -5       2.59    62.71     1.70    57.11     5.17    -9.93     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.03P    7.80R    0.13  
Southend             30   38   +2      -4.18    30.90     0.63    59.42     5.59     1.21     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.24P    3.50R    0.08  
Burton_Albion        30   38   +0      -4.13    31.51    -1.50    58.03     5.51    -2.81     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.11P    5.63R    0.16  
Scunthorpe           31   37  -18      -2.63    38.40   -13.00    57.81     5.46   -17.76     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.07P    8.24R    0.28  
Accrington_Stanley   28   36   -9       3.80    69.30    -0.31    56.22     5.79   -15.54     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P   13.83R    0.69  
Plymouth             31   36  -13      -1.33    44.30    -4.68    52.90     5.20   -18.85     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   29.01R    1.58  
Walsall              30   35  -13      -0.22    49.64    -3.81    53.58     5.43   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   25.11R    1.72  
Rochdale             31   34  -24      -0.02    50.90    -9.88    51.23     5.24   -29.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   42.63R    4.41  
Gillingham           30   33   -9      -4.04    31.60    -2.37    52.41     5.48   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   31.17R    2.47  
Bristol_Rovers       30   32   -4      -6.69    20.36    -0.49    51.80     5.46    -7.05     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    33.03R    2.86  
Oxford_Utd           30   32   -9      -5.84    24.07    -3.60    52.81     5.59   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   28.32R    2.31  
Bradford             31   32  -15      -5.59    25.36    -7.23    50.48     5.30   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.46R    4.90  
Shrewsbury           30   31  -10      -7.62    17.26    -6.54    52.81     5.56   -10.10     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   27.86R    2.24  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   23  -24      -7.12    17.52    -8.26    39.91     5.29   -31.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.88R   76.15  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 5 February 2019, Cheltenham 1 0 Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     30   60  +24       9.44    87.56    10.05    86.98     5.52    31.57    51.50    86.79    99.64    90.03P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        31   58  +24       4.73    71.38     8.36    83.64     5.27    31.39    24.97    72.88    98.67    80.37P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             31   54  +22       0.13    50.21     4.48    80.66     5.41    31.34    11.14    53.31    95.13    66.36P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   51  +18       7.84    83.20    15.14    74.15     5.56    19.87     1.36    12.14    68.93    22.35P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         30   51  +13       3.67    67.27     3.89    75.69     5.63    17.12     2.29    17.52    76.07    31.13P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   50  +18      -2.34    38.26     1.35    78.57     5.55    27.77     6.67    36.69    90.17    54.11P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           30   50  +12       1.78    58.49     1.56    74.42     5.64    15.62     1.43    12.68    68.47    26.44P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   49  +14       0.22    51.13     4.66    72.31     5.36    18.00     0.56     6.53    56.18    18.50P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        31   47   -2       4.84    72.38    -1.45    66.10     5.26    -4.14     0.03     0.48    12.81     2.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         30   42   +3       1.90    59.32     4.78    62.38     5.61     0.58     0.00     0.15     5.39     1.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            30   41   -4       3.02    65.20     0.91    62.37     5.53    -4.75     0.00     0.06     4.44     0.82P    0.03R    0.00  
Grimsby          31   40   -5       2.95    65.15     2.59    58.34     5.21    -8.05     0.00     0.01     0.70     0.10P    0.18R    0.02  
Swindon          30   40   -6      -1.30    43.99    -6.34    62.39     5.49    -5.51     0.00     0.08     4.45     0.91P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County   29   40  -10       4.56    72.53    -2.99    59.92     5.70   -15.30     0.00     0.03     2.04     0.34P    0.24R    0.02  
Oldham           29   39   +5      -6.54    21.41    -3.66    65.71     5.86     9.97     0.02     0.65    15.87     4.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Northampton      31   37   -4      -6.30    23.33    -5.02    58.08     5.40    -3.39     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.14P    0.29R    0.05  
Crawley_Town     31   37   -7      -1.26    44.44    -0.47    55.49     5.20   -10.13     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    1.01R    0.18  
Cheltenham       30   35   -9      -1.97    41.04    -2.23    54.44     5.47   -12.94     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    1.84R    0.32  
Port_Vale        30   33  -10      -3.42    33.89    -3.67    52.95     5.38   -12.80     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    3.56R    0.70  
Cambridge_Utd    30   32  -22      -2.07    40.60   -11.55    50.81     5.38   -26.74     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     8.82R    2.05  
Yeovil           30   30   -6      -6.22    21.98     0.92    49.83     5.35    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    9.10R    2.14  
Morecambe        30   29  -17      -3.31    34.07    -3.88    46.70     5.30   -23.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.16R    8.43  
Macclesfield     31   27  -21      -1.98    41.10    -0.27    41.25     4.92   -30.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.84R   34.86  
Notts_County     30   22  -30     -11.37     6.76   -17.14    39.89     5.40   -36.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.88R   51.23  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Dover_Athletic 1 2 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      31   60  +30       5.62    75.23    12.60    86.60     5.28    39.01    48.84    96.16    64.00P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       31   57  +25       7.36    80.14    14.05    82.12     5.53    31.89    16.28    82.61    32.88P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     31   57  +19      11.53    91.51    14.44    79.42     5.30    21.91     6.32    66.86    17.87P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          31   56  +25       3.03    63.94     9.38    82.88     5.25    34.50    19.98    87.74    41.30P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   56  +15       8.45    85.08     7.44    79.02     5.14    18.81     4.88    63.24    18.93P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +7       7.83    83.11     2.46    75.89     5.51    10.14     1.87    37.83     9.17P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          32   51   +9       3.00    64.02     2.63    71.52     5.12    11.07     0.18    13.88     3.28P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       5.02    72.05    11.31    74.23     5.78    20.59     1.39    31.22     7.85P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          31   49   -3       9.21    86.30     0.87    69.06     5.25    -3.80     0.07     5.29     0.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   47  +13      -0.09    49.69     5.98    70.57     5.37    17.41     0.15    12.03     3.01P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   41   -2       0.65    53.73     0.57    59.91     5.23    -3.96     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.74R    0.00  
Bromley            31   40   -2      -3.20    35.42    -3.03    60.74     5.39    -1.90     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.58R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          31   39   -1      -5.80    24.29    -4.64    60.45     5.39     0.32     0.00     0.22     0.05P    0.66R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   39   -3      -4.03    31.45    -4.44    59.16     5.29    -3.27     0.00     0.09     0.02P    1.28R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   39   -8      -1.11    45.13    -4.79    56.56     5.16   -12.07     0.00     0.02     0.00     3.64R    0.00  
Halifax            30   35   -5      -0.46    48.58     2.00    53.84     5.28    -8.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.67R    0.05  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -4.08    29.89   -11.37    64.58     6.45    -2.72     0.03     2.54     0.70P    0.39R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    31   33   -9      -2.35    39.81     2.92    48.92     5.26   -16.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.52R    0.65  
Dover_Athletic     32   33  -17      -8.18    16.17   -13.44    51.59     5.10   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.97R    0.22  
Maidenhead         31   31  -22      -2.86    36.90    -8.48    46.40     5.06   -30.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.75R    2.23  
Chesterfield       30   30   -8     -12.93     5.67   -11.01    53.32     5.63    -5.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.27R    0.13  
Aldershot          30   28  -23      -7.41    17.33   -15.10    47.40     5.43   -26.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.58R    2.32  
Maidstone_United   31   25  -26      -5.50    24.34    -7.91    39.78     4.96   -34.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.91R   23.40  
Braintree_Town     31   22  -25      -6.17    21.88    -2.41    34.77     4.89   -37.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.05R   71.00