Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 6 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 4 February 2019, West_Ham 1 1 Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        25   62  +41       9.15    92.64     9.73    90.93     4.27    59.91    54.22    92.53    99.66    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   59  +46       0.95    54.39     2.05    89.57     4.08    69.39    42.21    89.73    99.38    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   57  +27       6.00    81.10    -0.19    82.48     4.53    39.40     3.54    17.06    84.71    95.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   50  +22       2.08    60.90     0.81    73.33     4.61    30.47     0.03     0.41     8.16    45.00    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   48  +14       1.20    56.26    -5.45    72.26     4.69    24.16     0.00     0.18     4.34    33.13    99.14     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   47  +15       3.03    66.37    -0.95    71.31     4.81    25.32     0.00     0.09     3.74    26.03    98.69     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   38   +1       7.09    84.03     7.49    55.43     4.80    -0.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     2.20     0.00     0.00  
Watford          25   34   -1       3.88    71.51     6.47    49.53     4.57    -6.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          25   33   +0      -2.25    37.98     0.12    48.59     4.79    -4.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.07R    0.00  
Bournemouth      25   33   -7       2.90    66.49     2.05    48.35     4.62   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.07R    0.00  
Leicester        25   32   -1      -1.39    42.50     1.42    50.28     4.75    -1.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03R    0.00  
West_Ham         25   32   -7       2.40    63.98     1.94    47.74     4.60   -11.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.10R    0.00  
Brighton         25   27   -9      -0.39    48.64     2.24    41.77     4.48   -14.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.24R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   26   -7      -4.03    28.32     0.53    42.02     4.69   -10.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.00R    0.00  
Newcastle        25   24  -12      -4.51    25.38    -2.61    40.72     4.77   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.23R    0.02  
Southampton      25   24  -15      -3.76    29.71    -3.42    39.73     4.63   -18.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.83R    0.02  
Burnley          25   24  -20      -3.47    31.12    -8.37    36.51     4.40   -28.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.00R    0.09  
Cardiff          25   22  -24      -0.34    49.51    -2.91    33.13     4.34   -35.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.08R    0.78  
Fulham           25   17  -30      -5.15    22.02    -4.96    27.42     4.36   -43.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.50R   10.99  
Huddersfield     25   11  -33      -7.41     9.49    -6.00    19.98     3.94   -47.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.85R   88.10  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Birmingham 2 0 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         30   57  +18      10.48    89.58    10.02    83.53     5.59    25.04    35.13    58.60    96.60    67.07P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   57  +16      11.13    91.28     9.05    81.48     5.63    19.78    21.25    41.43    92.41    51.75P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   54  +19       6.04    76.61     8.91    79.18     5.55    23.87    12.61    28.51    86.81    42.18P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       29   50  +21      -2.22    38.81     1.78    80.12     5.83    31.59    18.11    36.96    89.35    54.59P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   29   50  +12       2.30    61.53     0.61    78.34     5.67    19.23     9.49    22.57    82.23    40.24P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    29   47   +8       4.09    69.44     3.44    70.92     5.73     8.83     0.79     2.77    32.76     9.10P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   47   +5       2.45    61.83    -2.02    74.47     5.75    11.14     2.21     7.24    57.77    19.62P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      30   43   +9       4.81    72.73    13.41    64.28     5.55     7.90     0.02     0.15     6.27     1.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   43   +7      -4.77    28.05    -2.95    67.70     5.67    11.03     0.21     0.83    17.40     5.25P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            30   43   +5      -0.53    47.64     1.68    65.93     5.55     6.25     0.08     0.32     9.82     2.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   -4       3.53    66.78    -1.00    64.51     5.63    -4.84     0.02     0.11     5.86     1.12P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   42   +7       1.13    55.78     7.60    63.59     5.57     6.38     0.01     0.11     5.07     1.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         30   41   +3      -4.86    28.19    -3.99    65.54     5.62     6.81     0.05     0.29     8.95     2.48P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             29   39   -6       3.46    67.39     0.84    59.67     5.64   -10.29     0.00     0.01     1.09     0.18P    0.10R    0.00  
Stoke           30   38   -6      -4.19    30.89    -7.41    60.45     5.59    -5.08     0.00     0.01     1.32     0.35P    0.07R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   38  -11       1.14    56.36    -6.35    60.27     5.80   -12.71     0.00     0.01     1.33     0.25P    0.15R    0.00  
Brentford       29   37   +7      -7.12    19.12     0.69    62.27     5.89     9.88     0.01     0.06     3.89     1.04P    0.03R    0.00  
Preston         30   37   +0      -5.23    26.49    -1.47    59.76     5.59     1.04     0.00     0.01     1.04     0.24P    0.10R    0.00  
Wigan           30   32  -14      -5.50    25.22    -8.64    52.90     5.51   -15.47     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.97R    0.06  
Millwall        29   30  -10      -6.55    20.39    -5.10    49.90     5.62   -15.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.77R    0.22  
Rotherham       30   26  -20      -3.31    34.55    -1.09    40.66     5.11   -31.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.69R    9.35  
Reading         30   25  -12      -9.17    11.97    -1.10    42.82     5.38   -18.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.99R    4.37  
Bolton          30   23  -26      -3.52    32.25    -4.21    37.09     4.90   -37.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.76R   28.41  
Ipswich         30   18  -28     -12.99     3.90   -12.67    33.88     5.18   -37.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.38R   57.60  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Barnsley 2 0 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                31   65  +34       9.36    86.73    14.16    93.65     5.30    46.35    56.32    83.42    99.99    88.62P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             30   59  +27       3.37    65.20     5.21    88.54     5.53    38.20    16.87    46.25    99.67    65.51P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           30   58  +19      10.65    90.05     9.96    83.43     5.63    24.17     3.36    13.53    97.22    31.99P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           28   56  +23       4.71    71.70     3.55    89.63     5.97    36.47    22.97    53.61    99.62    69.57P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             31   54  +15       5.03    72.63     5.58    78.71     5.44    21.08     0.43     2.65    88.15    22.77P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         31   49   +8       2.33    61.01     2.05    71.88     5.46    11.38     0.00     0.12    43.79     8.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            29   47  +14       3.09    64.52     7.94    72.44     5.83    17.00     0.05     0.40    50.86     9.82P    0.00     0.00  
Blackpool            29   43   +4       2.09    60.65     2.02    65.81     5.69     3.48     0.00     0.00    10.80     1.90P    0.19R    0.00  
Wycombe              31   43   -1       4.53    70.53     5.28    60.63     5.31    -5.68     0.00     0.00     1.57     0.18P    1.83R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       31   42   +8      -3.04    36.13     4.36    63.33     5.36     9.14     0.00     0.00     4.78     0.90P    0.45R    0.00  
Coventry             31   40   -5       2.64    63.34     1.77    57.08     5.18   -10.01     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.03P    8.07R    0.15  
Southend             30   38   +2      -4.27    30.41     0.48    59.57     5.61     1.42     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.27P    3.32R    0.05  
Burton_Albion        30   38   +0      -4.19    31.38    -1.60    58.06     5.52    -2.82     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.14P    5.59R    0.12  
Scunthorpe           31   37  -18      -2.56    38.43   -12.94    57.79     5.46   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P    8.47R    0.37  
Accrington_Stanley   28   36   -9       3.69    68.94    -0.42    56.23     5.82   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.03P   13.89R    0.65  
Plymouth             31   36  -13      -1.52    43.28    -4.95    52.99     5.18   -18.68     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    28.54R    1.58  
Walsall              30   35  -13      -0.32    49.37    -4.01    53.69     5.42   -17.95     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   24.48R    1.63  
Rochdale             31   34  -24      -0.02    51.00    -9.86    51.19     5.25   -29.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    43.32R    4.45  
Gillingham           30   33   -9      -4.04    31.48    -2.31    52.31     5.47   -13.38     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   31.86R    2.67  
Bristol_Rovers       30   32   -4      -6.86    20.11    -0.73    51.86     5.44    -6.92     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   32.81R    2.74  
Oxford_Utd           30   32   -9      -5.92    23.74    -3.74    52.92     5.59   -10.72     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   27.77R    2.16  
Bradford             31   32  -15      -5.54    25.48    -7.17    50.54     5.32   -18.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    44.98R    4.82  
Shrewsbury           30   31  -10      -7.58    17.39    -6.51    52.76     5.57   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   28.52R    2.29  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   23  -24      -7.04    17.67    -8.13    39.95     5.23   -31.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.92R   76.31  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Bury 1 1 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     30   60  +24       9.48    87.80    10.04    86.97     5.51    31.56    51.88    87.10    99.55    90.32P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        31   58  +24       4.77    71.87     8.44    83.60     5.23    31.36    24.96    73.04    98.71    80.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             31   54  +22       0.15    50.29     4.50    80.68     5.41    31.39    11.19    53.72    95.07    66.20P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   51  +18       8.05    83.83    15.49    73.99     5.53    19.64     1.27    11.60    67.15    21.55P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         30   51  +13       3.67    67.44     3.92    75.68     5.66    17.08     2.27    18.07    75.75    31.15P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   50  +18      -2.30    38.66     1.38    78.53     5.53    27.69     6.47    36.11    90.04    54.33P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           30   50  +12       1.86    58.83     1.63    74.40     5.60    15.58     1.44    12.50    67.82    26.00P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   49  +14       0.27    51.54     4.76    72.19     5.34    17.84     0.47     6.23    54.92    17.96P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        31   47   -2       4.91    72.81    -1.37    66.07     5.27    -4.17     0.00     0.46    12.44     2.54P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   42   +4       2.77    63.88     5.00    64.28     5.84     2.39     0.01     0.35    10.29     2.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            30   41   -4       3.20    65.89     1.10    62.32     5.54    -4.85     0.00     0.07     4.25     0.77P    0.03R    0.00  
Grimsby          31   40   -5       3.03    65.17     2.73    58.30     5.22    -8.12     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.08P    0.17R    0.01  
Swindon          30   40   -6      -1.36    43.74    -6.40    62.46     5.53    -5.45     0.00     0.09     4.63     1.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Newport_County   29   40  -10       4.40    71.62    -3.21    60.00     5.70   -15.17     0.00     0.04     2.20     0.34P    0.23R    0.03  
Oldham           29   39   +5      -6.68    20.93    -3.84    65.79     5.85    10.05     0.03     0.63    15.81     4.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     31   37   -7      -1.24    44.62    -0.53    55.51     5.20   -10.07     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.96R    0.14  
Northampton      30   34   -5      -7.61    18.05    -5.53    56.02     5.61    -5.06     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.09P    1.10R    0.19  
Port_Vale        30   33  -10      -3.51    33.47    -3.79    52.97     5.33   -12.77     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    3.49R    0.71  
Cheltenham       29   32  -10      -3.38    34.03    -2.83    53.03     5.67   -13.65     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P    3.95R    0.84  
Cambridge_Utd    30   32  -22      -2.01    40.84   -11.44    50.71     5.39   -26.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    9.26R    2.24  
Yeovil           29   30   -5      -5.25    25.47     1.43    51.13     5.56    -8.19     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    6.70R    1.50  
Morecambe        30   29  -17      -3.33    34.05    -3.97    46.77     5.30   -23.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.98R    8.21  
Macclesfield     31   27  -21      -2.00    41.08    -0.27    41.28     4.94   -30.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.46R   34.96  
Notts_County     30   22  -30     -11.41     6.89   -17.26    39.92     5.44   -36.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.61R   51.17  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Dover_Athletic 1 2 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      31   60  +30       5.64    75.44    12.61    86.60     5.25    39.00    49.02    96.18    63.97P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       31   57  +25       7.38    80.35    14.12    82.05     5.56    31.79    15.92    82.08    32.40P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     31   57  +19      11.31    91.28    14.11    79.49     5.34    21.99     6.66    67.47    18.63P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          31   56  +25       3.22    64.81     9.61    82.81     5.24    34.38    19.80    87.68    40.78P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   56  +15       8.32    84.80     7.24    79.11     5.20    18.91     4.92    63.68    19.38P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +7       7.91    83.07     2.57    75.87     5.53    10.08     1.87    37.69     9.15P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          32   51   +9       2.79    63.17     2.37    71.53     5.15    11.09     0.19    13.75     3.21P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       4.99    71.70    11.27    74.26     5.78    20.63     1.40    31.44     7.98P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          31   49   -3       9.19    86.65     0.79    69.07     5.20    -3.78     0.06     5.16     0.85P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   47  +13      -0.08    49.67     6.02    70.58     5.35    17.42     0.12    11.77     2.82P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   41   -2       0.70    53.96     0.60    59.90     5.22    -3.98     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.78R    0.00  
Bromley            31   40   -2      -3.06    35.97    -2.86    60.64     5.38    -2.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.62R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          31   39   -1      -5.74    24.75    -4.54    60.39     5.36     0.24     0.00     0.18     0.05P    0.79R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   39   -3      -4.03    31.16    -4.43    59.12     5.27    -3.35     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.20R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   39   -8      -1.40    43.78    -5.23    56.72     5.21   -11.89     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.54R    0.00  
Halifax            30   35   -5      -0.46    48.51     1.98    53.92     5.27    -8.65     0.00     0.00     0.00P   10.49R    0.04  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -4.13    29.33   -11.44    64.57     6.44    -2.74     0.03     2.58     0.72P    0.38R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    31   33   -9      -2.31    40.00     2.99    48.87     5.28   -16.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.15R    0.72  
Dover_Athletic     32   33  -17      -8.14    16.49   -13.38    51.59     5.08   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.82R    0.17  
Maidenhead         31   31  -22      -2.58    38.16    -8.04    46.28     5.03   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.69R    2.29  
Chesterfield       30   30   -8     -12.94     5.76   -10.98    53.37     5.60    -5.74     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.78R    0.15  
Aldershot          30   28  -23      -7.44    17.30   -15.14    47.45     5.42   -26.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.98R    2.38  
Maidstone_United   31   25  -26      -5.40    24.62    -7.77    39.76     4.97   -34.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.76R   23.97  
Braintree_Town     31   22  -25      -6.20    21.64    -2.46    34.84     4.91   -37.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.01R   70.27