Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 4 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 3 February 2019, Leicester 0 1 Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        24   61  +41      10.05    95.02    10.31    92.33     4.46    61.82    63.48    95.04    99.74    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         25   59  +46       0.95    54.60     2.12    89.62     4.05    69.42    33.87    89.23    99.36    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        25   57  +27       5.90    80.64    -0.39    82.51     4.51    39.45     2.62    15.18    84.94    95.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          25   50  +22       2.10    61.24     0.82    73.34     4.63    30.49     0.02     0.34     8.05    44.94    99.57     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          25   48  +14       1.35    57.16    -5.21    72.16     4.71    23.97     0.01     0.15     4.07    32.43    99.15     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          25   47  +15       2.99    66.15    -0.99    71.40     4.80    25.44     0.00     0.07     3.83    26.75    98.67     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    25   38   +1       7.09    84.09     7.44    55.42     4.80    -0.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     2.10     0.00     0.00  
Watford          25   34   -1       3.90    71.46     6.51    49.51     4.60    -6.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          25   33   +0      -2.38    37.23    -0.09    48.64     4.78    -4.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth      25   33   -7       2.98    66.89     2.15    48.32     4.66   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.08R    0.00  
Leicester        25   32   -1      -1.32    43.27     1.50    50.26     4.75    -1.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03R    0.00  
West_Ham         24   31   -7       2.14    62.73     0.89    47.31     4.74   -13.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.20R    0.00  
Brighton         25   27   -9      -0.38    48.87     2.32    41.73     4.53   -14.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.30R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   25   26   -7      -3.97    28.79     0.69    41.95     4.66   -10.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.10R    0.00  
Newcastle        25   24  -12      -4.36    26.43    -2.29    40.64     4.73   -13.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.38R    0.02  
Southampton      25   24  -15      -3.68    30.06    -3.25    39.69     4.64   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.30R    0.03  
Burnley          25   24  -20      -3.69    29.93    -8.71    36.59     4.41   -28.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.32R    0.05  
Cardiff          25   22  -24      -0.37    49.34    -2.92    33.11     4.33   -35.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.91R    0.85  
Fulham           25   17  -30      -5.25    21.61    -5.09    27.41     4.34   -43.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.45R   10.77  
Huddersfield     25   11  -33      -7.32     9.72    -5.81    19.97     3.94   -47.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.85R   88.28  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Birmingham 2 0 Nott'm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Norwich         30   57  +18      10.31    89.20     9.76    83.64     5.59    25.23    35.46    59.26    96.59    67.53P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds_United    30   57  +16      10.94    90.86     8.77    81.60     5.64    19.92    21.52    42.22    92.67    52.74P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       30   54  +19       6.18    77.34     9.07    79.17     5.53    23.86    12.23    27.82    86.55    41.75P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       29   50  +21      -2.29    38.54     1.67    80.11     5.81    31.67    17.78    36.57    89.52    54.04P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   29   50  +12       2.40    61.92     0.75    78.34     5.65    19.20     9.46    22.32    82.09    40.26P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    29   47   +8       3.98    68.92     3.29    70.92     5.79     8.86     0.82     2.79    32.80     9.01P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           29   47   +5       2.38    61.66    -2.18    74.54     5.73    11.25     2.35     7.21    58.30    19.61P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      30   43   +9       4.86    73.05    13.46    64.33     5.55     7.95     0.02     0.16     6.20     1.13P    0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     30   43   +7      -4.81    27.92    -3.02    67.69     5.70    11.02     0.20     0.79    17.47     5.15P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            30   43   +5      -0.51    47.96     1.74    65.92     5.53     6.25     0.05     0.29     9.71     2.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       30   43   -4       3.55    66.83    -0.94    64.59     5.65    -4.75     0.03     0.13     6.01     1.22P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   30   42   +7       1.19    56.25     7.68    63.56     5.55     6.33     0.01     0.09     4.87     1.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         30   41   +3      -4.86    28.45    -3.99    65.54     5.63     6.82     0.04     0.23     8.86     2.52P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             29   39   -6       3.48    67.54     0.87    59.64     5.61   -10.31     0.00     0.01     0.94     0.15P    0.11R    0.00  
Stoke           30   38   -6      -4.09    31.38    -7.28    60.37     5.58    -5.22     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.25P    0.07R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       29   38  -11       1.25    56.99    -6.20    60.21     5.80   -12.82     0.00     0.01     1.39     0.22P    0.13R    0.00  
Brentford       29   37   +7      -7.06    19.30     0.81    62.27     5.87     9.89     0.02     0.07     3.82     0.99P    0.04R    0.00  
Preston         30   37   +0      -5.41    25.60    -1.68    59.74     5.61     1.03     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.25P    0.10R    0.00  
Wigan           30   32  -14      -5.49    25.26    -8.65    52.92     5.53   -15.47     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    2.90R    0.05  
Millwall        29   30  -10      -6.54    20.38    -5.11    49.93     5.61   -15.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.62R    0.16  
Rotherham       30   26  -20      -3.27    34.77    -0.98    40.60     5.15   -31.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.15R    9.31  
Reading         30   25  -12      -9.07    12.34    -0.87    42.71     5.33   -18.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.97R    4.45  
Bolton          30   23  -26      -3.47    32.24    -4.13    37.04     4.89   -37.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.71R   28.79  
Ipswich         30   18  -28     -13.09     3.72   -12.82    33.91     5.15   -37.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.20R   57.24  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Barnsley 2 0 Scunthorpe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                31   65  +34       9.50    86.71    14.37    93.60     5.31    46.27    56.79    83.51    99.99    88.90P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             30   59  +27       3.62    66.31     5.61    88.42     5.54    38.01    16.39    45.83    99.69    64.85P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           30   58  +19      10.67    90.06     9.96    83.52     5.60    24.26     3.44    13.96    97.13    32.28P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           28   56  +23       4.72    71.84     3.62    89.53     5.95    36.34    22.83    53.57    99.60    69.42P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             31   54  +15       4.99    72.20     5.53    78.71     5.41    21.03     0.49     2.61    88.24    22.40P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         31   49   +8       2.17    60.09     1.78    71.96     5.47    11.48     0.00     0.11    44.09     8.54P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            29   47  +14       2.98    63.94     7.77    72.51     5.84    17.12     0.07     0.40    50.90     9.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            29   43   +4       1.95    59.95     1.84    65.89     5.70     3.58     0.00     0.01    10.92     1.94P    0.17R    0.00  
Wycombe              31   43   -1       4.66    71.54     5.46    60.60     5.30    -5.73     0.00     0.00     1.40     0.20P    1.90R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       31   42   +8      -3.06    36.03     4.32    63.30     5.38     9.09     0.00     0.00     4.70     0.88P    0.46R    0.00  
Coventry             31   40   -5       2.59    62.90     1.65    57.13     5.15    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.03P    7.75R    0.15  
Southend             30   38   +2      -4.18    30.95     0.62    59.51     5.55     1.33     0.00     0.00     1.44     0.27P    3.26R    0.08  
Burton_Albion        30   38   +0      -4.34    30.53    -1.72    58.11     5.52    -2.70     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.15P    5.51R    0.13  
Scunthorpe           31   37  -18      -2.59    37.98   -12.98    57.79     5.42   -17.82     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.05P    8.26R    0.32  
Accrington_Stanley   28   36   -9       3.74    69.16    -0.42    56.24     5.79   -15.48     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.06P   13.73R    0.67  
Plymouth             31   36  -13      -1.58    43.34    -4.99    53.02     5.20   -18.67     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   28.13R    1.60  
Walsall              30   35  -13      -0.30    49.53    -3.93    53.61     5.46   -18.04     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   25.34R    1.75  
Rochdale             31   34  -24      -0.01    50.79    -9.88    51.16     5.23   -29.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    43.38R    4.38  
Gillingham           30   33   -9      -3.94    31.90    -2.22    52.29     5.48   -13.39     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   31.85R    2.63  
Bristol_Rovers       30   32   -4      -6.75    20.70    -0.64    51.86     5.46    -6.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   32.83R    2.91  
Oxford_Utd           30   32   -9      -5.90    23.76    -3.72    52.84     5.60   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   28.29R    2.15  
Bradford             31   32  -15      -5.46    25.66    -7.02    50.47     5.32   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.73R    5.02  
Shrewsbury           30   31  -10      -7.72    17.00    -6.73    52.87     5.55   -10.02     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   27.54R    2.25  
AFC_Wimbledon        30   23  -24      -7.09    17.19    -8.26    39.98     5.28   -30.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.86R   75.95  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Bury 1 1 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     30   60  +24       9.59    87.86    10.23    86.92     5.54    31.50    50.96    86.55    99.57    89.97P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        31   58  +24       4.63    71.07     8.21    83.67     5.25    31.44    25.42    73.08    98.73    80.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             31   54  +22       0.17    50.22     4.53    80.66     5.40    31.37    11.22    53.48    95.26    66.12P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   51  +18       7.82    83.14    15.18    74.08     5.54    19.76     1.40    11.89    67.94    22.05P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         30   51  +13       3.57    66.78     3.73    75.73     5.65    17.19     2.42    18.11    75.89    31.41P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   50  +18      -2.38    38.35     1.28    78.58     5.52    27.73     6.62    36.44    89.89    54.28P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           30   50  +12       1.86    58.92     1.67    74.37     5.58    15.53     1.37    12.25    67.60    25.94P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       31   49  +14       0.12    50.75     4.60    72.24     5.38    17.91     0.54     6.57    55.13    18.15P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        31   47   -2       4.96    72.87    -1.27    66.05     5.26    -4.23     0.01     0.46    12.45     2.42P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   42   +4       2.93    64.36     5.23    64.17     5.80     2.21     0.01     0.29     9.71     2.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            30   41   -4       3.04    65.18     0.88    62.36     5.54    -4.79     0.00     0.08     4.41     0.82P    0.04R    0.00  
Grimsby          31   40   -5       2.98    65.17     2.70    58.33     5.23    -8.07     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.11P    0.18R    0.01  
Swindon          30   40   -6      -1.37    43.92    -6.43    62.41     5.49    -5.45     0.00     0.07     4.52     1.01P    0.04R    0.00  
Newport_County   29   40  -10       4.64    72.49    -2.87    59.88     5.67   -15.34     0.00     0.03     1.95     0.27P    0.23R    0.03  
Oldham           29   39   +5      -6.51    21.52    -3.65    65.73     5.87     9.96     0.04     0.70    15.50     4.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town     31   37   -7      -1.03    45.77    -0.17    55.45     5.23   -10.20     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    1.06R    0.16  
Northampton      30   34   -5      -7.74    17.83    -5.76    56.12     5.62    -4.89     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.08P    1.03R    0.21  
Port_Vale        30   33  -10      -3.66    33.00    -4.03    53.05     5.35   -12.63     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    3.30R    0.69  
Cheltenham       29   32  -10      -3.21    34.73    -2.54    52.95     5.69   -13.81     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    3.98R    0.84  
Cambridge_Utd    30   32  -22      -2.09    40.12   -11.55    50.81     5.35   -26.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.75R    2.05  
Yeovil           29   30   -5      -5.25    25.62     1.42    51.15     5.59    -8.15     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     6.53R    1.55  
Morecambe        30   29  -17      -3.46    33.51    -4.13    46.82     5.33   -22.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.56R    8.00  
Macclesfield     31   27  -21      -1.76    42.31     0.12    41.14     4.92   -30.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.62R   35.93  
Notts_County     30   22  -30     -11.53     6.75   -17.36    39.93     5.41   -36.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.67R   50.53  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 2 February 2019, Dover_Athletic 1 2 Gateshead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      31   60  +30       5.68    75.41    12.67    86.62     5.26    39.01    49.18    96.24    64.38P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       31   57  +25       7.34    79.70    14.03    82.04     5.55    31.79    16.16    82.44    32.75P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     31   57  +19      11.47    91.54    14.38    79.41     5.29    21.89     6.25    66.93    17.91P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          31   56  +25       3.09    64.35     9.44    82.85     5.24    34.49    19.99    87.88    41.45P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   56  +15       8.49    85.38     7.49    78.98     5.16    18.75     4.67    62.90    18.57P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +7       7.90    83.26     2.53    75.88     5.48    10.14     1.86    37.57     9.16P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          32   51   +9       2.99    63.90     2.69    71.45     5.13    10.98     0.17    13.43     3.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       4.89    71.43    11.12    74.35     5.76    20.77     1.50    32.05     7.95P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          31   49   -3       9.17    86.48     0.77    69.11     5.24    -3.72     0.06     5.31     0.88P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   47  +13      -0.22    49.16     5.76    70.62     5.39    17.50     0.14    12.24     3.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Barrow             31   41   -2       0.74    54.08     0.67    59.93     5.21    -3.95     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.74R    0.00  
Bromley            31   40   -2      -3.14    36.10    -2.93    60.71     5.36    -1.91     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.56R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          31   39   -1      -5.60    25.14    -4.33    60.36     5.36     0.19     0.00     0.14     0.04P    0.78R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   39   -3      -4.03    31.51    -4.43    59.08     5.28    -3.39     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.20R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   39   -8      -1.40    43.56    -5.17    56.72     5.17   -11.89     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.45R    0.00  
Halifax            30   35   -5      -0.62    47.71     1.74    53.99     5.27    -8.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.28R    0.03  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -3.84    31.02   -11.02    64.36     6.47    -3.03     0.04     2.54     0.71P    0.49R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    31   33   -9      -2.39    39.92     2.83    48.94     5.27   -16.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.66R    0.67  
Dover_Athletic     32   33  -17      -8.26    15.90   -13.51    51.64     5.07   -17.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.63R    0.19  
Maidenhead         31   31  -22      -2.57    38.40    -8.11    46.33     5.08   -30.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.54R    2.25  
Chesterfield       30   30   -8     -13.01     5.50   -11.11    53.31     5.61    -5.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.21R    0.15  
Aldershot          30   28  -23      -7.47    17.05   -15.15    47.42     5.41   -26.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.53R    2.38  
Maidstone_United   31   25  -26      -5.50    24.32    -7.97    39.84     4.93   -34.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.87R   23.16  
Braintree_Town     31   22  -25      -6.18    21.93    -2.39    34.77     4.89   -37.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.05R   71.15