Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 3 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 January 2019, Bournemouth 4 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        24   61  +41      10.03    95.03    10.36    92.32     4.47    61.66    67.07    95.61    99.81    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   56  +44       0.25    50.10     1.76    88.83     4.27    69.01    30.17    87.82    98.93    99.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   54  +26       4.95    76.69    -0.49    81.85     4.68    39.99     2.72    15.76    83.66    95.31   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          24   47  +17       3.40    68.46    -0.87    72.07     4.97    26.03     0.02     0.32     7.03    37.40    99.10     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   47  +17       2.60    63.99    -0.53    72.33     4.82    26.40     0.01     0.32     6.79    39.00    99.29     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   45  +13       0.06    49.73    -5.71    70.91     4.95    23.59     0.01     0.17     3.78    28.46    98.54     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    24   35   -1       5.94    80.62     6.23    53.11     5.02    -3.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.34     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          24   33   +2      -1.23    43.02     1.37    50.70     5.04    -0.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.02R    0.00  
Watford          24   33   -1       4.28    73.61     6.74    49.74     4.79    -6.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth      24   33   -5       3.85    71.37     3.27    50.28     4.92    -9.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03R    0.00  
Leicester        24   32   +0      -0.60    46.75     1.60    51.44     5.01    -0.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.00R    0.00  
West_Ham         24   31   -7       2.17    62.86     0.97    47.23     4.72   -13.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.17R    0.00  
Brighton         24   26   -9       0.11    51.76     2.62    42.21     4.76   -14.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.34R    0.01  
Newcastle        24   24  -11      -3.83    28.70    -2.65    41.10     4.90   -14.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.95R    0.02  
Crystal_Palace   24   23   -9      -4.77    24.43     0.05    40.57     4.91   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.38R    0.04  
Southampton      24   23  -15      -3.54    30.64    -3.60    40.02     4.88   -18.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.93R    0.05  
Burnley          24   23  -20      -3.04    33.07    -8.29    36.94     4.64   -28.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.16R    0.16  
Cardiff          24   19  -26      -1.76    40.45    -4.31    31.11     4.57   -38.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.16R    3.72  
Fulham           24   17  -28      -4.56    24.32    -4.27    28.44     4.58   -42.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.20R   10.54  
Huddersfield     24   11  -28      -7.69     8.69    -4.25    20.67     4.12   -43.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.64R   85.46  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 January 2019, Bolton 1 1 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    29   57  +18      11.84    93.03    10.02    83.57     5.84    22.84    33.62    56.87    96.06    65.36P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         29   54  +16       9.61    88.12     9.16    81.22     5.82    21.91    19.78    40.85    91.79    51.60P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       29   51  +17       5.64    75.53     8.72    78.26     5.72    22.94     9.48    23.38    82.97    37.61P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       28   50  +22      -1.19    43.38     2.29    82.09     6.00    33.49    27.94    51.46    93.52    65.86P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   47  +11       0.92    54.67    -0.01    76.13     5.88    17.43     5.11    13.94    70.63    30.70P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   46   +5       2.56    62.63    -2.44    74.85     5.95    11.20     3.02     8.97    61.06    22.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +6       3.08    65.21     2.34    69.03     5.95     6.47     0.43     1.58    23.80     6.02P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       29   43   -1       3.57    67.31    -0.28    66.15     5.84    -1.40     0.07     0.35    10.98     2.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   42   +9       1.83    59.12     8.51    65.11     5.79     8.64     0.07     0.31     9.59     2.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   42   +7      -4.40    29.43    -3.02    68.47     5.92    11.65     0.30     1.30    22.89     6.98P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         29   41   +5      -4.26    30.03    -3.11    67.16     5.77     9.19     0.12     0.62    15.95     4.84P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      29   40   +7       4.03    70.11    12.60    62.34     5.70     5.41     0.01     0.04     3.62     0.59P    0.04R    0.00  
Hull            29   40   +3      -1.28    44.12     1.07    64.29     5.72     4.23     0.02     0.17     6.80     1.63P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             28   39   -5       4.27    71.20     0.96    61.02     5.86    -9.24     0.01     0.04     2.21     0.36P    0.08R    0.00  
Stoke           29   38   -4      -3.65    33.14    -6.70    61.93     5.82    -2.94     0.00     0.06     3.00     0.76P    0.06R    0.00  
Preston         29   36   +0      -4.86    27.45    -1.41    60.19     5.77     1.13     0.00     0.03     1.69     0.39P    0.11R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   35  -12       0.06    50.83    -6.50    58.29     5.96   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.15P    0.48R    0.01  
Brentford       28   34   +4      -7.62    16.95    -0.56    60.51     6.07     6.71     0.00     0.03     2.56     0.66P    0.13R    0.00  
Millwall        28   29  -10      -5.99    22.21    -4.77    51.00     5.85   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    6.14R    0.22  
Wigan           29   29  -15      -6.58    20.59    -8.91    51.34     5.73   -16.35     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    6.00R    0.32  
Rotherham       29   25  -20      -3.10    35.32    -1.07    40.39     5.36   -32.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.24R   13.97  
Reading         29   24  -12      -8.87    12.58    -1.05    42.91     5.58   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.23R    6.14  
Bolton          29   23  -24      -3.08    34.34    -3.69    37.76     5.06   -36.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.89R   29.58  
Ipswich         29   18  -27     -12.01     4.95   -12.14    35.38     5.41   -36.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.58R   49.76  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 January 2019, Blackpool 2 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                30   62  +31       9.01    85.99    13.12    91.94     5.55    43.22    49.52    76.79    99.91    83.85P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           29   57  +19      11.03    91.61     9.91    84.14     5.79    24.64     6.66    20.31    96.31    37.11P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             29   56  +25       3.09    64.56     5.15    87.17     5.77    36.66    16.72    41.51    99.05    61.17P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             30   54  +16       6.06    76.85     6.04    80.41     5.65    22.59     1.71     6.92    89.81    26.47P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           27   53  +22       3.94    68.66     3.70    88.78     6.13    36.75    25.16    53.04    99.18    68.52P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         30   49   +9       3.50    66.59     2.69    74.08     5.66    13.62     0.09     0.70    54.52    11.06P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            28   46  +14       3.33    65.93     7.78    72.56     6.02    16.61     0.13     0.71    44.58     8.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            29   43   +4       2.00    60.14     1.93    65.84     5.71     3.54     0.01     0.01     8.56     1.56P    0.15R    0.00  
Wycombe              30   42   -1       4.90    72.58     5.45    61.10     5.54    -5.64     0.00     0.00     1.48     0.20P    1.59R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       30   39   +7      -4.31    30.08     3.91    61.48     5.58     7.80     0.00     0.00     2.15     0.40P    1.36R    0.03  
Coventry             30   39   -5       3.16    65.81     2.00    57.49     5.41    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P    6.97R    0.14  
Southend             29   38   +3      -3.16    35.01     1.08    61.30     5.76     2.96     0.00     0.00     2.24     0.41P    1.54R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        29   37   +0      -3.85    32.63    -1.52    58.66     5.78    -2.53     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.13P    4.61R    0.14  
Scunthorpe           30   37  -16      -2.33    39.29   -12.72    58.79     5.63   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    5.73R    0.16  
Accrington_Stanley   28   36   -9       3.77    69.27    -0.31    56.33     5.80   -15.40     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P   12.23R    0.58  
Walsall              29   35  -12       0.75    54.77    -3.37    55.42     5.70   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   15.27R    0.82  
Plymouth             30   33  -14      -3.14    35.35    -5.86    50.71     5.41   -20.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    42.23R    4.24  
Gillingham           29   32   -9      -3.78    32.35    -2.46    52.78     5.69   -13.26     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   27.73R    2.34  
Shrewsbury           29   31   -7      -7.50    17.42    -5.30    54.34     5.78    -6.91     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P   18.62R    1.32  
Oxford_Utd           29   31   -9      -5.78    23.64    -3.95    53.02     5.79   -11.20     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   26.15R    2.29  
Bradford             30   31  -15      -5.35    25.92    -7.31    50.88     5.56   -18.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   40.39R    4.47  
Rochdale             30   31  -25      -1.36    44.15   -10.39    49.16     5.48   -31.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    55.53R    9.42  
Bristol_Rovers       29   29   -5      -8.15    15.22    -1.23    49.74     5.66    -8.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   45.63R    6.12  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   23  -23      -6.53    19.33    -8.34    40.51     5.43   -31.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.25R   67.89  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 January 2019, Forest_Green 1 1 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     29   59  +24      10.04    89.36    10.30    87.81     5.76    32.28    53.50    87.78    99.73    90.97P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        30   55  +22       4.41    70.48     8.34    82.64     5.48    30.35    17.35    63.53    98.09    73.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             30   53  +22       0.61    52.62     4.57    82.12     5.60    33.10    15.21    62.15    97.34    73.28P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   51  +18       8.06    83.75    15.57    74.03     5.56    19.70     1.10    11.08    71.81    21.97P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         30   51  +13       3.64    67.07     3.80    75.72     5.65    17.16     1.93    16.84    79.23    31.56P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   50  +20      -1.70    41.37     2.31    80.31     5.74    30.31    10.14    47.37    94.73    63.77P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           29   47  +10       0.80    53.98     0.59    72.37     5.79    13.05     0.59     7.06    58.15    19.54P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       30   46  +10      -0.18    49.23     2.52    69.80     5.57    12.73     0.13     2.64    41.07    11.59P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        30   44   -3       3.67    67.85    -1.77    64.63     5.45    -4.97     0.01     0.27    10.39     1.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         29   42   +4       2.86    63.81     5.12    64.23     5.84     2.29     0.01     0.37    11.98     2.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            30   41   -4       2.98    64.95     0.83    62.47     5.53    -4.61     0.00     0.07     5.66     1.02P    0.03R    0.00  
Swindon          30   40   -6      -1.18    44.69    -6.15    62.36     5.49    -5.56     0.00     0.08     5.38     1.14P    0.04R    0.01  
Newport_County   28   40   -7       4.93    74.20    -1.56    61.53     5.90   -11.85     0.01     0.10     4.96     0.78P    0.12R    0.01  
Oldham           29   39   +5      -6.36    21.91    -3.39    65.70     5.87     9.92     0.03     0.63    18.52     5.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          30   37   -8       2.48    63.07     1.32    56.23     5.44   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.07P    0.94R    0.14  
Crawley_Town     30   36   -7      -1.09    45.35    -0.88    54.99     5.39   -11.65     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.03P    1.60R    0.26  
Northampton      29   34   -1      -7.73    17.70    -3.85    58.30     5.89     0.31     0.00     0.01     1.88     0.42P    0.60R    0.08  
Port_Vale        30   33  -10      -3.61    33.15    -3.93    52.90     5.35   -12.85     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    3.86R    0.73  
Cheltenham       29   32  -10      -3.18    35.14    -2.48    52.96     5.71   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P    4.46R    0.90  
Cambridge_Utd    30   32  -22      -2.08    40.60   -11.52    50.84     5.36   -26.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    9.71R    2.34  
Yeovil           28   30   -4      -4.46    28.76     1.67    52.45     5.81    -7.30     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    5.30R    1.21  
Morecambe        30   29  -17      -3.49    33.24    -4.17    46.80     5.29   -22.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.96R    8.50  
Macclesfield     30   27  -19      -1.47    43.65     0.20    41.85     5.09   -29.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.55R   31.61  
Notts_County     29   21  -30     -11.23     7.00   -17.42    39.77     5.61   -37.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.81R   54.19  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 January 2019, Bromley 0 1 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      31   60  +30       5.62    75.03    12.60    86.61     5.24    39.01    49.01    96.43    64.43P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       31   57  +25       7.31    79.90    13.98    82.07     5.54    31.80    16.24    82.76    32.86P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     31   57  +19      11.47    91.57    14.37    79.41     5.30    21.91     6.35    67.69    17.94P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          31   56  +25       3.08    64.25     9.41    82.91     5.25    34.57    20.08    88.39    41.54P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   56  +15       8.60    85.65     7.64    78.97     5.15    18.71     4.66    63.62    19.05P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +7       7.87    83.24     2.52    75.91     5.51    10.17     1.91    38.44     9.29P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       4.77    70.88    10.91    74.39     5.80    20.81     1.45    32.87     8.06P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          31   49   -3       9.22    86.74     0.82    69.09     5.23    -3.77     0.07     5.45     0.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          31   48   +8       1.73    58.52     2.20    69.69     5.34     9.77     0.08     8.69     2.05P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   47  +13      -0.10    49.60     5.96    70.63     5.37    17.50     0.12    12.47     3.06P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   41   -2       0.63    53.68     0.57    59.93     5.25    -3.96     0.00     0.09     0.03P    0.86R    0.00  
Bromley            31   40   -2      -3.09    36.06    -2.90    60.67     5.39    -1.98     0.00     0.18     0.05P    0.69R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          31   39   -1      -5.70    24.74    -4.46    60.44     5.38     0.28     0.00     0.18     0.04P    0.72R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   39   -3      -4.03    31.15    -4.41    59.15     5.27    -3.28     0.00     0.06     0.02P    1.30R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   39   -8      -1.27    44.39    -4.96    56.59     5.15   -12.05     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.87R    0.00  
Halifax            30   35   -5      -0.52    48.13     1.86    53.89     5.24    -8.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.69R    0.03  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -4.07    29.74   -11.40    64.58     6.45    -2.69     0.04     2.66     0.70P    0.52R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    31   33   -9      -2.39    39.77     2.89    48.90     5.25   -16.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.75R    0.67  
Dover_Athletic     31   33  -16      -7.15    19.41   -12.91    53.05     5.32   -16.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.41R    0.12  
Maidenhead         31   31  -22      -2.66    37.73    -8.13    46.28     5.01   -30.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.76R    2.15  
Chesterfield       30   30   -8     -12.85     5.92   -10.91    53.31     5.60    -5.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.66R    0.15  
Aldershot          30   28  -23      -7.53    17.10   -15.25    47.44     5.42   -26.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.43R    2.35  
Maidstone_United   31   25  -26      -5.44    24.73    -7.85    39.77     4.91   -34.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.21R   23.74  
Braintree_Town     31   22  -25      -6.25    21.55    -2.55    34.83     4.86   -37.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.11R   70.78