Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 2 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 January 2019, Bournemouth 4 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        24   61  +41      10.01    94.84    10.36    92.34     4.47    61.69    67.28    95.80    99.81    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   56  +44       0.19    49.50     1.60    88.88     4.23    69.10    30.26    87.90    99.08    99.82   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   54  +26       5.02    77.44    -0.37    81.78     4.70    39.84     2.44    15.47    82.96    95.11   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          24   47  +17       3.30    68.03    -1.00    72.09     4.97    26.09     0.01     0.32     6.88    37.71    99.16     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   47  +17       2.48    63.49    -0.74    72.42     4.80    26.54     0.02     0.39     7.35    39.14    99.32     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   45  +13       0.08    49.70    -5.69    70.91     4.94    23.56     0.00     0.12     3.93    28.19    98.53     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    24   35   -1       5.94    80.39     6.25    53.06     5.01    -3.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.30     0.00     0.00  
Everton          24   33   +2      -1.27    43.20     1.31    50.71     5.04    -0.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.02R    0.00  
Watford          24   33   -1       4.27    73.62     6.77    49.70     4.83    -6.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.02R    0.00  
Bournemouth      24   33   -5       3.95    72.08     3.41    50.25     4.89    -9.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03R    0.00  
Leicester        24   32   +0      -0.52    47.59     1.68    51.34     4.99    -0.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.67     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         24   31   -7       2.17    62.93     1.02    47.23     4.73   -13.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.14R    0.00  
Brighton         24   26   -9       0.07    51.22     2.63    42.24     4.77   -14.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.41R    0.01  
Newcastle        24   24  -11      -3.75    29.02    -2.55    41.05     4.88   -14.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.08R    0.02  
Crystal_Palace   24   23   -9      -4.81    24.12    -0.10    40.63     4.89   -12.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.15R    0.03  
Southampton      24   23  -15      -3.43    31.02    -3.40    39.94     4.87   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.04R    0.07  
Burnley          24   23  -20      -3.03    33.12    -8.24    36.93     4.66   -28.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.50R    0.15  
Cardiff          24   19  -26      -1.66    40.93    -4.23    31.08     4.58   -38.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.18R    3.82  
Fulham           24   17  -28      -4.63    24.28    -4.39    28.55     4.57   -42.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.79R   10.39  
Huddersfield     24   11  -28      -7.71     8.67    -4.34    20.75     4.11   -43.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.63R   85.50  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 January 2019, Bolton 1 1 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    29   57  +18      11.86    93.06    10.08    83.54     5.82    22.81    33.82    57.03    95.98    65.20P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         29   54  +16       9.47    87.74     8.99    81.22     5.81    21.96    19.32    40.67    91.82    51.64P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       29   51  +17       5.47    74.64     8.45    78.30     5.70    23.03     9.60    23.64    83.35    38.06P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       28   50  +22      -1.26    43.18     2.15    82.13     6.05    33.60    28.40    51.29    93.60    65.31P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   47  +11       0.98    55.04     0.07    76.10     5.87    17.34     4.99    13.81    70.54    30.86P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   46   +5       2.77    63.63    -2.15    74.73     6.00    11.00     2.75     8.91    60.10    21.49P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +6       3.08    65.66     2.32    69.04     6.01     6.51     0.47     1.68    24.24     6.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       29   43   -1       3.60    67.17    -0.19    66.17     5.88    -1.36     0.09     0.35    11.28     2.46P    0.00     0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   42   +9       1.72    58.72     8.35    65.15     5.75     8.64     0.04     0.23     9.35     1.95P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   42   +7      -4.39    29.35    -3.09    68.47     5.90    11.65     0.31     1.32    23.02     7.03P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         29   41   +5      -4.10    30.75    -2.87    67.09     5.80     9.07     0.13     0.65    15.81     4.93P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      29   40   +7       4.09    70.30    12.72    62.33     5.72     5.35     0.01     0.07     3.76     0.70P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull            29   40   +3      -1.33    43.84     0.93    64.30     5.74     4.28     0.04     0.19     6.88     1.64P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             28   39   -5       4.41    71.89     1.18    60.96     5.85    -9.34     0.00     0.04     2.08     0.31P    0.09R    0.00  
Stoke           29   38   -4      -3.61    33.05    -6.58    61.89     5.82    -3.00     0.01     0.06     2.97     0.73P    0.07R    0.00  
Preston         29   36   +0      -5.10    26.54    -1.73    60.30     5.85     1.35     0.00     0.01     1.91     0.45P    0.10R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   35  -12       0.00    50.70    -6.57    58.35     5.96   -14.22     0.00     0.01     0.82     0.17P    0.49R    0.00  
Brentford       28   34   +4      -7.55    17.12    -0.42    60.48     6.07     6.60     0.01     0.03     2.47     0.65P    0.13R    0.00  
Millwall        28   29  -10      -6.02    22.08    -4.81    51.00     5.86   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    6.19R    0.27  
Wigan           29   29  -15      -6.54    20.95    -8.82    51.36     5.77   -16.34     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.99R    0.28  
Rotherham       29   25  -20      -3.27    34.45    -1.36    40.45     5.33   -32.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.26R   13.54  
Reading         29   24  -12      -8.87    12.45    -1.05    42.93     5.56   -18.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.85R    6.18  
Bolton          29   23  -24      -3.05    34.51    -3.65    37.74     5.06   -36.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.17R   29.59  
Ipswich         29   18  -27     -11.93     5.03   -11.98    35.36     5.42   -36.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.61R   50.14  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 January 2019, Blackpool 2 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                30   62  +31       9.09    86.09    13.21    91.96     5.54    43.20    49.44    77.03    99.93    83.98P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           29   57  +19      11.17    91.71    10.10    84.04     5.76    24.51     6.07    19.51    96.28    36.25P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             29   56  +25       3.04    64.22     5.08    87.18     5.77    36.65    16.86    41.76    99.02    61.32P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             30   54  +16       6.08    77.00     6.10    80.41     5.60    22.57     1.66     6.73    90.00    26.06P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           27   53  +22       3.85    68.33     3.61    88.82     6.17    36.78    25.79    53.61    99.09    69.02P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         30   49   +9       3.34    65.52     2.44    74.06     5.69    13.59     0.08     0.65    54.08    11.16P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            28   46  +14       3.28    65.66     7.64    72.59     6.06    16.68     0.11     0.70    44.95     9.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            29   43   +4       2.08    60.30     2.07    65.80     5.72     3.47     0.00     0.02     8.35     1.50P    0.14R    0.00  
Wycombe              30   42   -1       4.87    72.42     5.39    61.20     5.55    -5.51     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.19P    1.62R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       30   39   +7      -4.48    29.23     3.68    61.56     5.60     7.93     0.00     0.00     2.17     0.38P    1.27R    0.01  
Coventry             30   39   -5       2.93    64.72     1.75    57.59     5.41    -9.79     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P    6.71R    0.13  
Southend             29   38   +3      -2.98    35.64     1.31    61.20     5.78     2.82     0.00     0.00     2.28     0.42P    1.75R    0.05  
Burton_Albion        29   37   +0      -3.85    32.44    -1.61    58.69     5.78    -2.48     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.19P    4.70R    0.14  
Scunthorpe           30   37  -16      -2.11    40.80   -12.38    58.70     5.63   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.06P    6.00R    0.19  
Accrington_Stanley   28   36   -9       3.80    69.49    -0.27    56.25     5.78   -15.47     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.03P   12.35R    0.65  
Walsall              29   35  -12       0.76    54.96    -3.39    55.42     5.66   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P   15.18R    0.82  
Plymouth             30   33  -14      -2.96    36.45    -5.57    50.71     5.41   -20.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   42.25R    4.37  
Gillingham           29   32   -9      -3.80    32.47    -2.51    52.73     5.74   -13.29     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   27.96R    2.49  
Shrewsbury           29   31   -7      -7.61    16.89    -5.51    54.39     5.74    -6.81     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   17.93R    1.20  
Oxford_Utd           29   31   -9      -5.77    23.96    -3.92    53.10     5.77   -11.09     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   25.13R    2.14  
Bradford             30   31  -15      -5.25    26.23    -7.13    50.78     5.54   -18.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    41.23R    4.73  
Rochdale             30   31  -25      -1.39    44.00   -10.34    49.13     5.44   -31.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.85R    9.04  
Bristol_Rovers       29   29   -5      -8.18    14.94    -1.27    49.78     5.69    -8.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   45.81R    6.25  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   23  -23      -6.61    19.02    -8.48    40.51     5.42   -31.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.13R   67.77  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 January 2019, Forest_Green 1 1 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     29   59  +24      10.07    89.67    10.38    87.80     5.73    32.25    53.83    87.95    99.72    91.15P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        30   55  +22       4.39    70.36     8.30    82.61     5.44    30.31    17.29    63.60    98.17    74.12P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             30   53  +22       0.95    53.71     5.10    81.96     5.65    32.79    14.90    60.92    97.11    72.02P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   51  +18       7.89    83.21    15.24    74.13     5.58    19.88     1.09    11.67    72.24    22.76P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         30   51  +13       3.65    67.17     3.84    75.73     5.65    17.18     1.95    17.02    79.14    31.82P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   50  +20      -1.58    41.98     2.47    80.24     5.76    30.18    10.09    47.40    94.53    63.57P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           29   47  +10       0.81    53.90     0.57    72.42     5.81    13.12     0.62     7.15    58.71    19.69P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       30   46  +10      -0.19    49.09     2.52    69.85     5.57    12.75     0.18     2.81    41.26    11.91P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        30   44   -3       3.57    67.27    -1.89    64.71     5.46    -4.82     0.01     0.27    10.64     2.03P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   42   +4       2.99    64.79     5.34    64.11     5.79     2.15     0.01     0.37    11.40     2.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            30   41   -4       2.95    64.74     0.78    62.47     5.53    -4.62     0.00     0.06     5.56     0.91P    0.04R    0.00  
Swindon          30   40   -6      -1.38    43.54    -6.48    62.49     5.51    -5.36     0.00     0.07     5.62     1.20P    0.05R    0.00  
Newport_County   28   40   -7       4.86    73.63    -1.64    61.61     5.89   -11.73     0.00     0.11     5.03     0.81P    0.12R    0.02  
Oldham           29   39   +5      -6.34    22.03    -3.41    65.65     5.85     9.84     0.02     0.58    17.96     5.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          30   37   -8       2.37    62.70     1.17    56.31     5.45   -11.54     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.07P    0.91R    0.14  
Crawley_Town     30   36   -7      -1.00    45.73    -0.78    54.92     5.37   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    1.68R    0.31  
Northampton      29   34   -1      -7.82    17.30    -3.94    58.44     5.84     0.54     0.00     0.02     1.88     0.48P    0.48R    0.10  
Port_Vale        30   33  -10      -3.55    33.19    -3.87    52.89     5.37   -12.85     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    3.89R    0.77  
Cheltenham       29   32  -10      -3.22    34.94    -2.56    52.95     5.70   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    4.45R    0.95  
Cambridge_Utd    30   32  -22      -1.89    41.51   -11.30    50.75     5.35   -26.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     9.69R    2.37  
Yeovil           28   30   -4      -4.36    29.07     1.78    52.35     5.77    -7.43     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    5.21R    1.12  
Morecambe        30   29  -17      -3.45    33.42    -4.08    46.82     5.33   -22.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.18R    8.48  
Macclesfield     30   27  -19      -1.46    43.77     0.22    41.79     5.08   -30.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.80R   31.88  
Notts_County     29   21  -30     -11.43     6.58   -17.76    39.82     5.59   -37.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.49R   53.86  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 January 2019, Bromley 0 1 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      31   60  +30       5.62    74.94    12.58    86.63     5.28    39.01    49.26    96.33    64.28P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       31   57  +25       7.30    79.89    14.00    82.10     5.51    31.83    16.36    83.18    33.21P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     31   57  +19      11.35    91.33    14.21    79.50     5.33    22.02     6.47    67.93    18.39P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          31   56  +25       3.21    64.84     9.63    82.80     5.24    34.40    19.77    88.14    41.21P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   56  +15       8.53    85.38     7.54    78.96     5.14    18.73     4.54    63.89    18.86P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +7       7.93    83.32     2.61    75.88     5.51    10.10     1.88    38.15     9.21P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       4.99    71.74    11.27    74.27     5.78    20.63     1.38    32.25     7.92P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          31   49   -3       9.12    86.38     0.72    69.05     5.25    -3.83     0.07     5.53     0.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Gateshead          31   48   +8       1.76    58.52     2.23    69.64     5.32     9.74     0.07     8.64     1.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   47  +13      -0.13    49.61     5.91    70.55     5.39    17.39     0.15    12.55     3.16P    0.00R    0.00  
Barrow             31   41   -2       0.63    53.74     0.55    60.00     5.24    -3.88     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.84R    0.00  
Bromley            31   40   -2      -3.08    35.71    -2.82    60.58     5.39    -2.11     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.71R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          31   39   -1      -5.76    24.87    -4.53    60.44     5.36     0.32     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.70R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   39   -3      -3.89    31.98    -4.21    59.07     5.27    -3.39     0.00     0.07     0.02P    1.34R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   39   -8      -1.30    44.39    -5.07    56.72     5.18   -11.90     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.68R    0.00  
Halifax            30   35   -5      -0.40    48.92     2.03    53.81     5.27    -8.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.33R    0.05  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -4.00    29.97   -11.25    64.58     6.43    -2.69     0.03     2.82     0.80P    0.44R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    31   33   -9      -2.32    40.14     3.03    48.91     5.27   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.07R    0.75  
Dover_Athletic     31   33  -16      -7.11    19.20   -12.87    53.08     5.31   -16.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.08R    0.13  
Maidenhead         31   31  -22      -2.78    37.58    -8.43    46.36     5.04   -30.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.45R    2.41  
Chesterfield       30   30   -8     -12.85     5.86   -10.91    53.36     5.61    -5.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.77R    0.15  
Aldershot          30   28  -23      -7.62    16.65   -15.35    47.49     5.44   -26.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.29R    2.44  
Maidstone_United   31   25  -26      -5.49    24.22    -7.91    39.83     4.95   -34.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.14R   23.81  
Braintree_Town     31   22  -25      -6.48    20.51    -2.96    34.91     4.87   -37.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.14R   70.26