Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 1 February 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 January 2019, Bournemouth 4 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        24   61  +41       9.89    94.72    10.16    92.39     4.43    61.82    67.83    95.99    99.81    99.98   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   56  +44       0.21    49.57     1.77    88.83     4.29    69.01    29.64    87.43    98.97    99.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   54  +26       5.03    77.06    -0.39    81.79     4.70    39.87     2.50    15.67    82.91    95.22   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          24   47  +17       3.33    68.30    -0.93    72.08     4.97    26.04     0.01     0.39     7.22    37.38    99.09     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   47  +17       2.38    62.92    -0.88    72.48     4.79    26.62     0.02     0.36     7.18    39.98    99.39     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   45  +13       0.21    50.65    -5.51    70.84     4.95    23.48     0.00     0.16     3.91    27.57    98.55     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    24   35   -1       6.18    81.48     6.59    52.94     5.03    -3.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.20     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          24   33   +2      -1.25    43.28     1.37    50.71     5.00    -0.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.02R    0.00  
Watford          24   33   -1       4.31    73.97     6.76    49.75     4.84    -6.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.03R    0.00  
Bournemouth      24   33   -5       3.85    71.30     3.25    50.29     4.91    -9.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04R    0.00  
Leicester        24   32   +0      -0.53    47.67     1.69    51.33     5.00    -0.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham         24   31   -7       2.19    63.09     1.03    47.23     4.74   -13.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.20R    0.00  
Brighton         24   26   -9       0.07    51.42     2.53    42.24     4.75   -14.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.34R    0.01  
Newcastle        24   24  -11      -3.90    28.27    -2.76    41.12     4.91   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.92R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   24   23   -9      -4.85    23.75    -0.14    40.67     4.89   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.16R    0.03  
Southampton      24   23  -15      -3.43    31.08    -3.38    39.96     4.86   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.99R    0.05  
Burnley          24   23  -20      -3.15    32.48    -8.41    36.98     4.66   -28.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.82R    0.16  
Cardiff          24   19  -26      -1.61    41.56    -4.08    31.02     4.56   -38.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.02R    3.78  
Fulham           24   17  -28      -4.68    23.90    -4.46    28.54     4.59   -42.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.74R   10.29  
Huddersfield     24   11  -28      -7.67     8.78    -4.22    20.68     4.10   -43.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.70R   85.67  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 January 2019, Bolton 1 1 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    29   57  +18      11.76    92.69     9.84    83.65     5.87    22.97    34.32    57.18    96.14    65.46P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         29   54  +16       9.40    87.43     8.92    81.26     5.83    22.01    19.58    41.17    91.93    52.20P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       29   51  +17       5.57    75.06     8.60    78.26     5.77    22.95     9.33    23.52    82.89    37.67P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       28   50  +22      -1.23    43.25     2.24    82.15     6.02    33.58    28.08    51.46    93.87    65.69P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   47  +11       0.88    54.61    -0.04    76.13     5.83    17.38     4.90    13.61    70.67    30.80P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   46   +5       2.69    63.05    -2.25    74.79     5.97    11.09     2.81     8.64    60.64    21.38P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +6       3.31    66.19     2.64    68.89     5.94     6.31     0.37     1.48    23.33     5.93P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       29   43   -1       3.59    67.10    -0.21    66.25     5.90    -1.27     0.08     0.40    11.43     2.52P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   42   +9       1.94    59.70     8.72    65.03     5.77     8.53     0.05     0.24     9.27     2.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   42   +7      -4.50    28.92    -3.16    68.47     5.87    11.66     0.31     1.21    22.92     6.78P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         29   41   +5      -4.14    30.54    -2.88    67.11     5.81     9.11     0.12     0.72    15.86     4.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Birmingham      29   40   +7       3.99    70.01    12.57    62.37     5.72     5.45     0.01     0.08     3.87     0.74P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull            29   40   +3      -1.26    44.27     1.05    64.29     5.72     4.24     0.03     0.14     6.92     1.55P    0.02R    0.00  
QPR             28   39   -5       4.38    71.65     1.15    60.89     5.85    -9.43     0.01     0.05     2.08     0.40P    0.09R    0.00  
Stoke           29   38   -4      -3.84    32.19    -6.94    62.00     5.83    -2.83     0.00     0.06     3.17     0.83P    0.06R    0.00  
Preston         29   36   +0      -4.82    27.55    -1.35    60.18     5.84     1.13     0.00     0.02     1.80     0.40P    0.14R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   35  -12      -0.08    50.15    -6.74    58.41     5.97   -14.09     0.00     0.01     0.83     0.17P    0.45R    0.01  
Brentford       28   34   +4      -7.53    16.89    -0.40    60.44     6.03     6.58     0.00     0.02     2.38     0.57P    0.16R    0.00  
Millwall        28   29  -10      -5.97    22.39    -4.73    51.00     5.85   -14.21     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    6.04R    0.24  
Wigan           29   29  -15      -6.50    20.89    -8.77    51.28     5.74   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.09R    0.28  
Rotherham       29   25  -20      -3.25    34.67    -1.32    40.46     5.33   -32.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.06R   13.62  
Reading         29   24  -12      -8.89    12.30    -1.09    42.87     5.53   -19.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.39R    6.19  
Bolton          29   23  -24      -3.16    33.87    -3.85    37.79     5.07   -36.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.59R   29.43  
Ipswich         29   18  -27     -11.90     4.93   -11.99    35.37     5.39   -36.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.88R   50.23  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 January 2019, Blackpool 2 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                30   62  +31       9.13    86.31    13.30    91.96     5.54    43.16    48.82    76.51    99.92    83.62P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           29   57  +19      11.21    91.72    10.19    84.04     5.83    24.50     6.34    19.74    96.12    36.26P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             29   56  +25       2.87    63.27     4.88    87.27     5.80    36.82    17.27    42.11    99.02    62.28P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             30   54  +16       6.09    77.02     6.12    80.41     5.61    22.56     1.54     6.69    89.69    25.92P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           27   53  +22       3.83    68.21     3.55    88.85     6.19    36.86    25.80    53.57    99.16    69.19P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         30   49   +9       3.25    65.07     2.33    74.16     5.69    13.75     0.10     0.68    55.14    11.13P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            28   46  +14       3.39    66.46     7.84    72.46     6.05    16.48     0.13     0.67    43.99     8.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            29   43   +4       1.89    59.49     1.71    65.97     5.70     3.65     0.00     0.03     8.80     1.61P    0.12R    0.00  
Wycombe              30   42   -1       4.93    72.63     5.49    61.12     5.53    -5.59     0.00     0.00     1.51     0.17P    1.60R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       30   39   +7      -4.68    28.63     3.36    61.63     5.58     8.04     0.00     0.00     2.19     0.43P    1.16R    0.01  
Coventry             30   39   -5       2.97    64.86     1.74    57.56     5.41    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.03P    6.51R    0.15  
Southend             29   38   +3      -3.17    35.00     1.09    61.31     5.83     2.95     0.00     0.00     2.39     0.41P    1.74R    0.03  
Burton_Albion        29   37   +0      -3.72    32.70    -1.33    58.56     5.73    -2.67     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.12P    4.58R    0.12  
Scunthorpe           30   37  -16      -2.16    40.18   -12.49    58.78     5.64   -16.54     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.07P    5.90R    0.21  
Accrington_Stanley   28   36   -9       3.88    69.69    -0.13    56.19     5.76   -15.59     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.02P   12.14R    0.54  
Walsall              29   35  -12       0.75    54.46    -3.46    55.44     5.67   -16.36     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P   15.18R    0.85  
Plymouth             30   33  -14      -2.98    36.27    -5.59    50.64     5.42   -20.93     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    42.80R    4.38  
Gillingham           29   32   -9      -3.57    33.29    -2.13    52.60     5.70   -13.50     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   28.57R    2.59  
Shrewsbury           29   31   -7      -7.46    17.11    -5.32    54.37     5.77    -6.84     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   18.40R    1.24  
Oxford_Utd           29   31   -9      -5.74    24.10    -3.94    53.03     5.79   -11.17     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   25.89R    2.17  
Bradford             30   31  -15      -5.22    26.62    -7.04    50.78     5.55   -18.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    41.06R    4.72  
Rochdale             30   31  -25      -1.42    43.87   -10.43    49.17     5.43   -31.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.41R    9.19  
Bristol_Rovers       29   29   -5      -8.23    14.87    -1.37    49.83     5.65    -8.50     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   44.79R    6.08  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   23  -23      -6.54    19.43    -8.39    40.50     5.40   -31.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.13R   67.70  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 January 2019, Forest_Green 1 1 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     29   59  +24      10.12    89.71    10.44    87.79     5.74    32.25    53.46    87.98    99.72    91.13P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        30   55  +22       4.33    70.09     8.25    82.64     5.41    30.35    17.17    63.99    98.28    74.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             30   53  +22       0.56    52.23     4.49    82.10     5.61    33.10    15.47    61.82    97.37    72.99P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   51  +18       7.94    83.23    15.35    74.09     5.53    19.78     1.07    11.05    72.15    22.00P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         30   51  +13       3.73    67.39     3.91    75.69     5.64    17.12     1.90    16.53    78.90    31.32P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   50  +20      -1.63    41.72     2.41    80.32     5.73    30.27    10.10    47.48    94.85    63.70P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           29   47  +10       1.02    55.06     0.86    72.27     5.83    12.92     0.61     6.87    57.75    19.03P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       30   46  +10      -0.38    48.30     2.27    69.89     5.55    12.82     0.16     2.72    41.87    11.94P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        30   44   -3       3.64    67.67    -1.74    64.64     5.47    -4.92     0.01     0.32    10.60     2.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         29   42   +4       2.94    64.28     5.30    64.13     5.80     2.16     0.01     0.31    11.46     2.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            30   41   -4       2.97    64.67     0.78    62.47     5.50    -4.59     0.00     0.08     5.51     0.98P    0.02R    0.01  
Swindon          30   40   -6      -1.32    44.01    -6.39    62.42     5.51    -5.49     0.00     0.07     5.54     1.18P    0.04R    0.00  
Newport_County   28   40   -7       4.77    73.31    -1.75    61.62     5.90   -11.72     0.00     0.14     5.04     0.88P    0.10R    0.01  
Oldham           29   39   +5      -6.44    21.61    -3.49    65.67     5.83     9.90     0.03     0.63    18.13     5.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          30   37   -8       2.58    63.80     1.45    56.19     5.41   -11.75     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.06P    0.89R    0.12  
Crawley_Town     30   36   -7      -0.92    46.09    -0.68    54.87     5.33   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.03P    1.63R    0.29  
Northampton      29   34   -1      -7.65    17.66    -3.74    58.41     5.87     0.47     0.00     0.02     1.81     0.40P    0.56R    0.11  
Port_Vale        30   33  -10      -3.44    33.77    -3.70    52.86     5.37   -12.90     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    3.78R    0.76  
Cheltenham       29   32  -10      -3.21    35.07    -2.53    52.93     5.68   -13.82     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    4.44R    0.96  
Cambridge_Utd    30   32  -22      -2.06    40.42   -11.51    50.80     5.39   -26.75     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    9.91R    2.35  
Yeovil           28   30   -4      -4.44    28.93     1.69    52.46     5.80    -7.30     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    5.10R    1.09  
Morecambe        30   29  -17      -3.57    32.72    -4.30    46.83     5.31   -22.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.10R    8.46  
Macclesfield     30   27  -19      -1.63    42.84    -0.02    41.89     5.09   -29.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.56R   31.51  
Notts_County     29   21  -30     -11.13     6.93   -17.36    39.77     5.60   -37.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.81R   54.34  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 January 2019, Bromley 0 1 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      31   60  +30       5.49    74.50    12.38    86.65     5.24    39.08    49.09    96.32    64.44P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       31   57  +25       7.19    79.56    13.76    82.11     5.53    31.89    16.30    82.91    32.57P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     31   57  +19      11.39    91.45    14.25    79.46     5.30    21.96     6.16    67.97    18.07P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          31   56  +25       2.96    63.54     9.27    82.91     5.23    34.57    20.14    88.70    42.16P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   56  +15       8.41    85.05     7.37    79.05     5.18    18.84     4.70    64.05    18.87P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +7       7.99    83.39     2.64    75.87     5.50    10.07     1.86    38.07     9.05P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       4.85    71.39    11.05    74.34     5.75    20.74     1.42    32.41     7.90P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          31   49   -3       9.25    86.70     0.85    69.04     5.23    -3.80     0.08     5.43     0.94P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          31   48   +8       1.79    58.78     2.28    69.64     5.36     9.78     0.08     8.62     2.01P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   47  +13      -0.02    50.10     6.09    70.53     5.38    17.42     0.13    12.24     3.15P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   41   -2       0.65    53.56     0.58    59.98     5.23    -3.88     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.82R    0.00  
Bromley            31   40   -2      -3.06    36.06    -2.80    60.62     5.38    -2.03     0.00     0.17     0.02P    0.73R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          31   39   -1      -5.51    25.55    -4.18    60.30     5.40     0.08     0.00     0.17     0.05P    0.96R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   39   -3      -4.06    31.16    -4.46    59.10     5.29    -3.37     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.35R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   39   -8      -1.29    44.27    -5.02    56.64     5.20   -12.02     0.00     0.01     0.00     3.92R    0.00  
Halifax            30   35   -5      -0.42    48.69     2.02    53.83     5.24    -8.76     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.15R    0.03  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -4.08    29.71   -11.34    64.57     6.43    -2.74     0.03     2.75     0.76P    0.47R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    31   33   -9      -2.51    39.10     2.74    49.01     5.28   -16.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.47R    0.65  
Dover_Athletic     31   33  -16      -7.05    19.60   -12.74    53.05     5.28   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.50R    0.11  
Maidenhead         31   31  -22      -2.69    37.88    -8.29    46.35     5.07   -30.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.45R    2.30  
Chesterfield       30   30   -8     -12.85     5.71   -10.90    53.35     5.60    -5.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.68R    0.17  
Aldershot          30   28  -23      -7.60    16.62   -15.32    47.53     5.38   -26.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.08R    2.20  
Maidstone_United   31   25  -26      -5.34    24.78    -7.75    39.75     4.93   -34.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.30R   23.56  
Braintree_Town     31   22  -25      -6.25    21.59    -2.49    34.80     4.90   -37.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.12R   70.98