Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 31 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 30 January 2019, Bournemouth 4 0 Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        24   61  +41       9.87    94.69    10.05    92.37     4.46    61.83    67.47    95.71    99.80    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         24   56  +44       0.22    49.67     1.75    88.88     4.27    69.09    29.92    87.82    99.02    99.86   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        24   54  +26       4.93    77.01    -0.54    81.81     4.72    39.90     2.58    15.66    83.32    95.20   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          24   47  +17       3.42    68.49    -0.84    72.07     4.95    26.06     0.02     0.36     7.06    37.36    99.10     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          24   47  +17       2.49    63.45    -0.64    72.41     4.79    26.49     0.01     0.31     7.04    39.52    99.34     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          24   45  +13       0.21    50.31    -5.50    70.86     4.94    23.50     0.00     0.14     3.76    28.05    98.50     0.00     0.00  
Wolverhampton    24   35   -1       6.08    81.12     6.45    53.04     5.03    -3.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.28     0.00R    0.00  
Everton          24   33   +2      -1.41    42.35     1.10    50.79     5.02    -0.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.02R    0.00  
Watford          24   33   -1       4.32    73.78     6.88    49.70     4.83    -6.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.01R    0.00  
Bournemouth      24   33   -5       3.91    71.96     3.29    50.26     4.91    -9.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.04R    0.00  
Leicester        24   32   +0      -0.57    47.26     1.64    51.38     5.02    -0.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham         24   31   -7       2.16    62.79     0.97    47.22     4.71   -13.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.15R    0.00  
Brighton         24   26   -9       0.10    51.73     2.61    42.22     4.74   -14.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.38R    0.01  
Newcastle        24   24  -11      -3.83    28.46    -2.62    41.10     4.89   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.97R    0.02  
Crystal_Palace   24   23   -9      -4.81    24.24    -0.09    40.65     4.91   -11.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.15R    0.02  
Southampton      24   23  -15      -3.50    30.64    -3.53    40.05     4.87   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     6.92R    0.06  
Burnley          24   23  -20      -3.15    32.47    -8.46    36.98     4.66   -28.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.93R    0.14  
Cardiff          24   19  -26      -1.55    42.06    -3.97    31.00     4.59   -38.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.76R    3.88  
Fulham           24   17  -28      -4.65    23.88    -4.39    28.50     4.58   -42.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.02R   10.17  
Huddersfield     24   11  -28      -7.64     9.00    -4.17    20.65     4.08   -43.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.63R   85.69  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 January 2019, Bolton 1 1 Reading; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    29   57  +18      11.84    92.80    10.03    83.58     5.81    22.88    33.70    56.90    96.12    65.40P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         29   54  +16       9.42    87.44     8.89    81.25     5.87    22.01    19.69    41.12    91.69    51.99P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       29   51  +17       5.42    74.81     8.40    78.34     5.68    23.05     9.46    23.38    83.67    37.84P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       28   50  +22      -1.20    43.38     2.23    82.13     6.00    33.58    28.21    51.63    93.83    65.60P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   47  +11       1.04    55.23     0.15    76.05     5.87    17.28     4.99    13.52    70.02    30.44P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   46   +5       2.66    63.16    -2.27    74.77     5.99    11.08     2.87     8.77    60.23    21.42P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +6       3.24    66.13     2.56    68.94     5.96     6.35     0.45     1.63    23.43     6.09P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       29   43   -1       3.52    66.81    -0.33    66.20     5.86    -1.32     0.06     0.35    11.41     2.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   42   +9       1.85    59.45     8.55    65.08     5.76     8.56     0.04     0.22     9.48     2.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   42   +7      -4.34    29.42    -2.96    68.41     5.93    11.56     0.33     1.37    22.42     7.10P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea         29   41   +5      -4.37    29.91    -3.29    67.21     5.80     9.27     0.15     0.66    16.24     4.97P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham      29   40   +7       4.00    69.92    12.59    62.37     5.76     5.47     0.02     0.11     4.02     0.75P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull            29   40   +3      -1.25    43.96     1.09    64.27     5.79     4.20     0.02     0.21     7.07     1.65P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             28   39   -5       4.45    72.00     1.21    60.93     5.87    -9.38     0.00     0.03     2.18     0.38P    0.10R    0.00  
Stoke           29   38   -4      -3.73    32.82    -6.82    61.96     5.84    -2.88     0.01     0.04     3.04     0.78P    0.05R    0.00  
Preston         29   36   +0      -5.10    26.61    -1.68    60.26     5.81     1.27     0.01     0.02     1.80     0.44P    0.10R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   35  -12      -0.13    50.18    -6.79    58.44     5.96   -14.05     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.14P    0.45R    0.00  
Brentford       28   34   +4      -7.54    17.35    -0.42    60.47     6.09     6.60     0.00     0.03     2.49     0.61P    0.17R    0.01  
Millwall        28   29  -10      -5.86    22.83    -4.57    50.90     5.84   -14.36     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    6.42R    0.26  
Wigan           29   29  -15      -6.52    20.79    -8.75    51.37     5.75   -16.33     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.84R    0.29  
Rotherham       29   25  -20      -3.16    35.07    -1.21    40.42     5.33   -32.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.48R   13.40  
Reading         29   24  -12      -8.92    12.34    -1.06    42.95     5.56   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.48R    5.95  
Bolton          29   23  -24      -2.99    34.80    -3.52    37.69     5.10   -36.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.27R   30.30  
Ipswich         29   18  -27     -11.95     4.84   -12.04    35.39     5.38   -36.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.57R   49.79  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 January 2019, Blackpool 2 2 Wycombe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                30   62  +31       9.18    86.57    13.38    91.87     5.54    43.08    48.64    76.51    99.92    83.75P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           29   57  +19      11.25    91.70    10.24    83.97     5.86    24.39     6.35    19.66    96.10    36.00P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             29   56  +25       2.91    63.37     4.92    87.26     5.75    36.83    17.06    41.93    99.03    61.70P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             30   54  +16       5.99    76.38     5.95    80.48     5.64    22.68     1.69     7.06    90.05    26.69P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           27   53  +22       3.81    68.12     3.54    88.85     6.13    36.87    26.01    53.45    99.15    69.06P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         30   49   +9       3.42    65.79     2.59    74.07     5.70    13.63     0.09     0.69    54.39    10.90P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            28   46  +14       3.32    66.09     7.71    72.52     6.03    16.56     0.16     0.67    44.27     8.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            29   43   +4       2.02    60.44     1.95    65.94     5.73     3.61     0.00     0.02     8.75     1.68P    0.16R    0.00  
Wycombe              30   42   -1       4.90    72.15     5.41    61.11     5.55    -5.65     0.00     0.00     1.52     0.21P    1.58R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       30   39   +7      -4.55    29.26     3.60    61.54     5.61     7.87     0.00     0.00     2.24     0.44P    1.32R    0.01  
Coventry             30   39   -5       2.87    64.48     1.62    57.63     5.39    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P    6.50R    0.12  
Southend             29   38   +3      -3.17    34.90     1.01    61.32     5.81     2.97     0.00     0.00     2.42     0.41P    1.64R    0.03  
Burton_Albion        29   37   +0      -3.87    32.44    -1.60    58.64     5.77    -2.53     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.14P    4.73R    0.13  
Scunthorpe           30   37  -16      -2.08    40.59   -12.30    58.71     5.66   -16.61     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.09P    6.04R    0.23  
Accrington_Stanley   28   36   -9       3.91    69.88    -0.11    56.24     5.76   -15.52     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P   12.28R    0.56  
Walsall              29   35  -12       0.81    54.64    -3.36    55.39     5.62   -16.46     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P   15.06R    0.82  
Plymouth             30   33  -14      -3.13    35.71    -5.80    50.77     5.44   -20.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    41.98R    4.27  
Gillingham           29   32   -9      -3.56    33.63    -2.18    52.65     5.72   -13.47     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    28.56R    2.58  
Shrewsbury           29   31   -7      -7.55    17.10    -5.44    54.41     5.75    -6.81     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   17.96R    1.22  
Oxford_Utd           29   31   -9      -5.72    24.05    -3.87    53.00     5.79   -11.19     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   26.05R    2.19  
Bradford             30   31  -15      -5.30    26.12    -7.20    50.87     5.56   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   40.60R    4.62  
Rochdale             30   31  -25      -1.46    43.62   -10.54    49.20     5.42   -31.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.33R    8.92  
Bristol_Rovers       29   29   -5      -8.06    15.38    -1.07    49.67     5.67    -8.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    45.98R    6.39  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   23  -23      -6.58    18.74    -8.46    40.52     5.38   -31.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.22R   67.90  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 29 January 2019, Forest_Green 1 1 Mansfield; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     29   59  +24      10.19    89.92    10.58    87.74     5.74    32.17    53.04    87.81    99.74    91.00P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        30   55  +22       4.18    69.56     8.02    82.73     5.42    30.45    17.52    64.07    98.34    74.66P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             30   53  +22       0.63    52.69     4.60    82.10     5.62    33.09    15.24    61.93    97.32    73.02P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     30   51  +18       7.93    83.03    15.30    74.15     5.55    19.87     1.05    11.24    72.72    22.37P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         30   51  +13       3.65    67.38     3.83    75.73     5.65    17.17     1.99    16.76    79.29    31.40P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   50  +20      -1.65    41.40     2.40    80.30     5.76    30.23    10.32    47.19    94.65    63.77P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           29   47  +10       0.94    54.51     0.74    72.33     5.81    12.99     0.64     6.99    58.17    19.19P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       30   46  +10      -0.07    49.66     2.67    69.74     5.59    12.64     0.15     2.60    40.66    11.20P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        30   44   -3       3.76    67.98    -1.60    64.62     5.46    -4.98     0.00     0.25    10.46     1.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         29   42   +4       2.95    64.64     5.26    64.16     5.81     2.19     0.01     0.31    11.54     2.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            30   41   -4       3.02    64.88     0.85    62.44     5.54    -4.66     0.00     0.06     5.67     1.03P    0.03R    0.00  
Swindon          30   40   -6      -1.34    43.87    -6.38    62.42     5.48    -5.43     0.00     0.06     5.28     1.12P    0.04R    0.00  
Newport_County   28   40   -7       4.87    73.86    -1.63    61.58     5.90   -11.76     0.01     0.12     4.91     0.84P    0.11R    0.01  
Oldham           29   39   +5      -6.53    21.41    -3.62    65.76     5.83    10.01     0.03     0.60    18.43     5.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Grimsby          30   37   -8       2.29    62.30     1.05    56.37     5.41   -11.51     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.06P    0.85R    0.12  
Crawley_Town     30   36   -7      -0.97    46.05    -0.75    54.90     5.36   -11.75     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    1.58R    0.30  
Northampton      29   34   -1      -7.58    17.77    -3.65    58.34     5.84     0.38     0.00     0.01     1.73     0.41P    0.51R    0.09  
Port_Vale        30   33  -10      -3.39    34.02    -3.67    52.87     5.37   -12.90     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    3.91R    0.74  
Cheltenham       29   32  -10      -3.10    35.52    -2.34    52.88     5.71   -13.93     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P    4.50R    1.01  
Cambridge_Utd    30   32  -22      -2.03    40.47   -11.44    50.75     5.38   -26.83     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    9.78R    2.28  
Yeovil           28   30   -4      -4.39    28.61     1.70    52.44     5.81    -7.30     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    5.16R    1.14  
Morecambe        30   29  -17      -3.61    32.61    -4.37    46.84     5.27   -22.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.12R    8.32  
Macclesfield     30   27  -19      -1.60    43.22    -0.00    41.86     5.06   -29.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.42R   31.55  
Notts_County     29   21  -30     -11.30     6.70   -17.56    39.77     5.61   -37.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.97R   54.42  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 January 2019, Bromley 0 1 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      31   60  +30       5.65    75.07    12.63    86.61     5.26    39.02    48.63    96.21    64.06P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       31   57  +25       7.03    78.95    13.60    82.22     5.53    32.04    16.65    83.64    33.22P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     31   57  +19      11.45    91.47    14.36    79.40     5.32    21.86     6.21    67.41    17.90P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          31   56  +25       2.99    63.83     9.29    82.90     5.27    34.53    20.13    88.27    41.72P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   56  +15       8.60    85.67     7.68    78.95     5.20    18.72     4.65    63.15    18.95P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +7       7.89    83.11     2.53    75.93     5.52    10.16     1.98    38.51     9.28P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       4.89    71.32    11.15    74.38     5.77    20.80     1.48    32.66     8.10P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          31   49   -3       9.13    86.32     0.70    69.13     5.23    -3.72     0.05     5.65     0.92P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   48   +8       1.76    58.66     2.24    69.62     5.34     9.73     0.07     8.72     1.90P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   47  +13      -0.02    50.33     6.06    70.56     5.38    17.38     0.12    12.39     3.11P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   41   -2       0.74    54.14     0.69    59.92     5.25    -3.98     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.88R    0.00  
Bromley            31   40   -2      -3.13    35.90    -2.93    60.63     5.36    -2.03     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.70R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          31   39   -1      -5.76    24.70    -4.50    60.42     5.41     0.28     0.00     0.21     0.04P    0.86R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   39   -3      -3.87    31.85    -4.20    59.02     5.29    -3.47     0.00     0.09     0.02P    1.35R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   39   -8      -1.28    44.35    -4.99    56.60     5.16   -12.05     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.69R    0.00  
Halifax            30   35   -5      -0.57    47.82     1.79    53.88     5.22    -8.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.81R    0.02  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -4.07    30.04   -11.37    64.59     6.45    -2.67     0.03     2.78     0.72P    0.50R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    31   33   -9      -2.49    39.37     2.72    49.00     5.28   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.40R    0.67  
Dover_Athletic     31   33  -16      -7.16    19.07   -12.97    53.06     5.27   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.16R    0.10  
Maidenhead         31   31  -22      -2.64    38.17    -8.15    46.29     5.06   -30.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.96R    2.23  
Chesterfield       30   30   -8     -12.82     5.97   -10.87    53.30     5.61    -5.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.95R    0.13  
Aldershot          30   28  -23      -7.49    16.92   -15.19    47.48     5.42   -26.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.28R    2.29  
Maidstone_United   31   25  -26      -5.34    24.88    -7.73    39.76     4.93   -34.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.29R   23.62  
Braintree_Town     31   22  -25      -6.24    21.81    -2.56    34.80     4.88   -37.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.17R   70.92