Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 28 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 January 2019, Fulham 1 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        23   60  +41      11.00    97.10    11.15    93.95     4.58    64.07    62.75    97.20    99.79    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   56  +45       2.07    63.06     3.29    91.39     4.39    72.06    36.26    93.73    99.37    99.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   51  +25       4.23    73.82    -0.04    81.08     4.90    40.41     0.95     7.94    71.03    89.98    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   47  +21       3.05    67.24     1.97    75.14     4.99    32.75     0.04     0.83    17.23    54.83    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   44  +16       2.63    64.64    -0.25    71.86     5.11    27.59     0.01     0.14     6.25    26.39    99.17     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   44  +13       1.01    55.41    -4.85    72.31     5.09    25.19     0.01     0.17     6.33    28.90    99.27     0.00     0.00  
Watford          23   33   +0       4.79    76.22     6.27    50.04     4.94    -7.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    23   32   -4       5.34    78.94     4.92    51.15     5.25    -6.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        23   31   +0      -0.65    46.63     0.84    50.53     5.12    -2.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham         23   31   -4       2.57    65.15     2.41    48.87     4.96    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.06R    0.00  
Everton          23   30   +1      -2.35    36.64     1.11    49.54     5.24    -1.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.03R    0.00  
Bournemouth      23   30   -9       2.96    67.57     0.62    47.52     5.07   -15.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.18R    0.00  
Brighton         23   26   -7       0.94    56.87     3.57    44.11     4.99   -11.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   22   -9      -4.56    24.56    -0.14    40.85     5.09   -12.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.38R    0.03  
Southampton      23   22  -15      -3.05    32.42    -3.34    40.58     5.08   -18.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.18R    0.06  
Burnley          23   22  -20      -3.27    31.74    -9.31    36.32     4.76   -30.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.35R    0.28  
Newcastle        23   21  -12      -5.67    19.41    -4.09    38.36     5.03   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.72R    0.15  
Cardiff          23   19  -25      -1.06    44.62    -4.62    31.30     4.68   -39.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.12R    4.10  
Fulham           23   14  -30      -5.70    17.54    -5.58    26.38     4.73   -45.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.88R   22.73  
Huddersfield     23   11  -27      -6.90    10.71    -3.93    21.55     4.30   -43.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.05R   72.64  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 January 2019, Aston_Villa 2 1 Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    29   57  +18      11.99    93.24    10.25    83.55     5.81    22.83    33.95    56.76    95.92    64.90P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         29   54  +16       9.54    87.93     9.05    81.18     5.81    21.87    19.57    40.56    91.32    51.56P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       29   51  +17       5.52    74.97     8.50    78.37     5.74    23.12     9.70    24.19    83.17    38.26P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       28   50  +22      -1.12    43.90     2.37    81.99     6.04    33.38    27.56    50.24    93.17    64.93P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   47  +11       0.83    54.14    -0.17    76.20     5.84    17.50     5.18    14.26    70.48    30.96P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   46   +5       2.68    63.25    -2.27    74.85     5.96    11.21     2.87     8.84    59.93    21.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +6       3.19    65.65     2.42    68.99     5.97     6.42     0.43     1.65    23.08     6.05P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       29   43   -1       3.48    66.70    -0.37    66.18     5.90    -1.35     0.06     0.38    10.78     2.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   29   42   +9       1.82    59.19     8.50    65.06     5.78     8.55     0.05     0.27     9.14     2.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     29   42   +7      -4.50    28.97    -3.16    68.51     5.92    11.75     0.36     1.35    22.60     6.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         28   40   +5      -3.48    33.20    -2.48    68.01     6.00     9.95     0.23     1.12    19.87     6.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull            29   40   +3      -1.35    43.60     0.92    64.30     5.76     4.24     0.03     0.15     6.70     1.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Birmingham      28   39   +7       4.15    70.98    12.13    62.12     5.88     4.61     0.01     0.08     3.83     0.68P    0.03R    0.00  
QPR             28   39   -5       4.42    72.03     1.18    60.90     5.84    -9.43     0.00     0.03     2.03     0.33P    0.11R    0.00  
Stoke           29   38   -4      -3.78    32.70    -6.86    62.06     5.89    -2.75     0.01     0.06     3.25     0.86P    0.06R    0.00  
Preston         29   36   +0      -4.85    27.48    -1.40    60.21     5.79     1.15     0.00     0.02     1.66     0.39P    0.10R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   35  -12      -0.05    50.42    -6.69    58.36     5.97   -14.14     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.13P    0.49R    0.01  
Brentford       28   34   +4      -7.51    17.29    -0.38    60.43     6.05     6.56     0.00     0.03     2.26     0.59P    0.15R    0.00  
Millwall        28   29  -10      -5.92    22.43    -4.63    50.96     5.89   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    6.66R    0.31  
Wigan           29   29  -15      -6.57    20.61    -8.86    51.34     5.81   -16.35     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P    6.44R    0.29  
Rotherham       29   25  -20      -3.21    34.83    -1.24    40.44     5.33   -32.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.69R   13.69  
Reading         28   23  -12      -8.42    12.96    -0.90    43.32     5.76   -18.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.70R    6.40  
Bolton          28   22  -24      -2.83    35.29    -3.82    38.08     5.29   -36.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.20R   28.87  
Ipswich         29   18  -27     -11.96     4.90   -12.09    35.35     5.42   -36.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.33R   50.43  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 January 2019, Barnsley 2 1 Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Luton                29   59  +30       8.01    83.58    13.12    90.47     5.78    42.36    37.51    65.15    99.70    75.64P    0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth           28   57  +20      11.99    93.53    10.28    85.25     5.99    25.26    10.31    25.92    96.88    41.69P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             28   55  +25       3.58    66.84     5.40    88.25     5.98    37.65    23.04    48.15    99.13    65.54P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             30   54  +16       6.02    76.76     5.97    80.49     5.61    22.67     1.76     6.75    89.12    26.04P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           27   53  +22       3.79    68.22     3.54    88.93     6.13    37.08    27.09    52.47    99.09    67.99P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         29   48   +9       3.85    68.19     2.64    74.59     5.88    13.84     0.18     0.86    55.75    11.41P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            28   46  +14       3.22    65.41     7.58    72.56     6.03    16.63     0.10     0.65    42.14     8.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            28   42   +4       2.49    62.71     2.00    66.66     5.92     4.22     0.00     0.04    10.33     1.82P    0.12R    0.00  
Wycombe              29   41   -1       5.48    75.48     5.64    61.03     5.76    -6.26     0.00     0.00     1.56     0.18P    1.90R    0.03  
Fleetwood_Town       30   39   +7      -4.45    29.77     3.65    61.58     5.57     7.95     0.00     0.00     2.01     0.38P    1.16R    0.01  
Coventry             30   39   -5       3.17    65.78     2.03    57.53     5.42    -9.90     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P    6.57R    0.15  
Southend             29   38   +3      -3.19    35.13     1.00    61.29     5.76     2.93     0.00     0.00     2.09     0.39P    1.45R    0.02  
Burton_Albion        29   37   +0      -3.79    32.54    -1.50    58.58     5.78    -2.62     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.14P    4.67R    0.13  
Scunthorpe           30   37  -16      -2.17    40.02   -12.43    58.68     5.63   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.09P    5.75R    0.20  
Accrington_Stanley   27   35   -9       4.08    71.27    -0.26    56.35     6.00   -16.03     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P   12.66R    0.70  
Walsall              29   35  -12       0.89    55.19    -3.22    55.32     5.66   -16.53     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   15.21R    0.73  
Plymouth             30   33  -14      -3.11    35.59    -5.81    50.70     5.40   -20.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   41.53R    3.98  
Shrewsbury           28   31   -6      -6.51    20.15    -5.01    55.98     5.97    -5.40     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   12.21R    0.69  
Gillingham           28   31   -9      -3.12    35.10    -1.96    53.25     5.89   -13.14     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   25.01R    2.15  
Rochdale             30   31  -25      -1.46    43.77   -10.62    49.22     5.42   -31.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.54R    8.43  
Oxford_Utd           28   30   -9      -5.63    24.20    -4.33    52.83     5.97   -12.03     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   26.88R    2.59  
Bristol_Rovers       28   28   -5      -7.83    15.69    -1.37    49.90     5.78    -8.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   43.70R    5.75  
Bradford             29   28  -16      -6.66    20.25    -8.01    48.97     5.72   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    52.64R    8.48  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   23  -23      -6.47    19.34    -8.33    40.48     5.40   -31.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.00R   65.95  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 January 2019, Bury 3 3 Lincoln_City; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     29   59  +24      10.14    89.69    10.46    87.75     5.73    32.14    53.05    88.16    99.72    91.17P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        29   54  +22       4.75    72.45     8.31    83.15     5.64    30.55    20.18    67.48    98.22    76.57P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             30   53  +22       0.72    52.98     4.76    82.01     5.60    32.91    14.45    61.98    97.16    72.74P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         30   51  +13       3.58    66.95     3.69    75.73     5.64    17.19     1.95    17.11    78.91    31.76P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     29   50  +18       8.24    84.84    15.23    74.38     5.72    19.69     1.53    13.19    72.45    24.04P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          28   47  +19      -2.75    35.94     2.15    79.02     6.03    29.77     7.90    39.68    90.82    57.45P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           29   47  +10       0.73    53.56     0.43    72.39     5.83    13.06     0.67     7.39    57.71    19.63P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       30   46  +10      -0.26    48.77     2.40    69.85     5.54    12.81     0.18     2.84    40.79    11.56P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        30   44   -3       3.70    67.94    -1.69    64.61     5.47    -4.96     0.01     0.29    10.21     2.01P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   42   +4       2.96    64.42     5.28    64.10     5.80     2.11     0.01     0.32    11.03     2.25P    0.01R    0.00  
Crewe            30   41   -4       3.09    65.55     0.96    62.40     5.52    -4.72     0.00     0.06     5.32     0.91P    0.03R    0.01  
Swindon          30   40   -6      -1.31    44.19    -6.36    62.42     5.51    -5.45     0.00     0.08     5.25     1.13P    0.03R    0.00  
Oldham           28   39   +6      -5.62    24.31    -3.29    66.74     6.04    10.45     0.06     1.20    23.36     7.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County   27   39   -7       5.40    76.31    -1.30    62.18     6.12   -11.49     0.01     0.21     6.33     1.10P    0.14R    0.02  
Grimsby          30   37   -8       2.51    63.12     1.37    56.27     5.42   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.42     0.07P    0.96R    0.12  
Crawley_Town     30   36   -7      -1.21    44.59    -1.08    55.03     5.38   -11.52     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    1.54R    0.29  
Northampton      29   34   -1      -7.67    17.55    -3.80    58.35     5.80     0.46     0.00     0.01     1.68     0.40P    0.49R    0.08  
Cheltenham       29   32  -10      -3.19    34.86    -2.47    52.92     5.68   -13.84     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    4.42R    0.96  
Port_Vale        29   32  -10      -3.18    34.88    -3.73    53.01     5.60   -13.28     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    4.28R    0.91  
Cambridge_Utd    30   32  -22      -2.07    40.81   -11.56    50.84     5.40   -26.69     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    9.55R    2.40  
Yeovil           28   30   -4      -4.44    28.61     1.65    52.47     5.77    -7.21     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    5.02R    1.10  
Morecambe        30   29  -17      -3.27    34.48    -3.87    46.76     5.31   -23.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.29R    8.72  
Macclesfield     30   27  -19      -1.49    43.74     0.26    41.76     5.07   -30.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.18R   31.99  
Notts_County     29   21  -30     -11.45     6.69   -17.81    39.90     5.62   -37.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.05R   53.40  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 26 January 2019, Bromley 0 1 Eastleigh; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      31   60  +30       5.61    75.16    12.58    86.62     5.22    39.02    48.99    96.40    64.05P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       31   57  +25       7.33    79.84    14.06    82.04     5.52    31.76    15.84    82.80    32.45P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     31   57  +19      11.57    91.68    14.50    79.38     5.29    21.84     6.14    67.52    17.82P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          31   56  +25       3.03    63.99     9.34    82.95     5.23    34.60    20.42    88.55    41.86P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            31   56  +15       8.42    85.30     7.39    79.07     5.18    18.84     4.82    63.93    19.32P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      30   52   +7       7.72    82.76     2.30    75.95     5.52    10.21     1.98    38.36     9.48P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       4.83    70.91    11.03    74.36     5.79    20.78     1.49    32.74     8.00P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          31   49   -3       9.30    87.03     0.97    69.03     5.22    -3.87     0.07     5.32     0.91P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          31   48   +8       1.82    58.74     2.28    69.67     5.36     9.75     0.08     8.87     2.05P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   31   47  +13      -0.23    49.20     5.79    70.65     5.39    17.53     0.14    12.45     3.25P    0.00     0.00  
Barrow             31   41   -2       0.69    54.19     0.61    59.96     5.21    -3.92     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.77R    0.00  
Bromley            31   40   -2      -3.12    36.15    -2.87    60.62     5.40    -2.04     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.66R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          31   39   -1      -5.70    25.14    -4.44    60.41     5.40     0.26     0.00     0.18     0.04P    0.77R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       31   39   -3      -4.15    30.87    -4.60    59.17     5.31    -3.26     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.36R    0.00  
Hartlepool         31   39   -8      -1.30    44.16    -5.04    56.59     5.20   -12.06     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.09R    0.00  
Halifax            30   35   -5      -0.33    49.27     2.16    53.81     5.25    -8.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.08R    0.05  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -3.84    30.76   -11.06    64.44     6.44    -2.92     0.02     2.54     0.71P    0.49R    0.00  
Havant_&_Wville    31   33   -9      -2.45    39.55     2.77    48.97     5.28   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.49R    0.65  
Dover_Athletic     31   33  -16      -7.16    19.27   -12.91    53.06     5.31   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.45R    0.15  
Maidenhead         31   31  -22      -2.63    37.93    -8.15    46.33     5.06   -30.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.56R    2.28  
Chesterfield       30   30   -8     -12.84     5.78   -10.90    53.30     5.62    -5.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.88R    0.13  
Aldershot          30   28  -23      -7.59    16.66   -15.33    47.51     5.43   -26.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.00R    2.30  
Maidstone_United   31   25  -26      -5.51    24.35    -7.97    39.81     4.93   -34.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.33R   23.70  
Braintree_Town     31   22  -25      -6.24    21.57    -2.51    34.83     4.89   -37.30     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.06R   70.73