Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 26 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 January 2019, Fulham 1 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        23   60  +41      11.00    97.09    11.16    93.97     4.60    64.14    63.02    97.09    99.80    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   56  +45       2.19    63.90     3.48    91.32     4.40    71.89    35.95    93.78    99.32    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   51  +25       4.09    73.27    -0.30    81.17     4.84    40.59     0.97     8.07    71.76    90.58   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   47  +21       3.01    66.89     1.85    75.18     4.94    32.80     0.05     0.74    16.94    54.83    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   44  +16       2.63    64.79    -0.28    71.85     5.09    27.60     0.00     0.14     6.19    26.13    99.19     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   44  +13       1.17    56.33    -4.61    72.29     5.08    25.11     0.00     0.18     5.98    28.56    99.35     0.00     0.00  
Watford          23   33   +0       4.84    76.42     6.35    50.00     4.98    -7.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    23   32   -4       5.50    79.94     5.19    51.11     5.19    -6.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        23   31   +0      -0.78    45.82     0.59    50.54     5.13    -2.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham         23   31   -4       2.53    65.01     2.39    48.83     5.00    -9.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.05R    0.00  
Everton          23   30   +1      -2.47    36.07     0.98    49.64     5.18    -1.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06R    0.00  
Bournemouth      23   30   -9       3.05    67.91     0.83    47.44     5.08   -15.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.20R    0.00  
Brighton         23   26   -7       0.88    56.26     3.48    44.12     5.02   -11.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.02R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   23   22   -9      -4.66    24.07    -0.32    40.92     5.09   -12.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.33R    0.04  
Southampton      23   22  -15      -3.05    32.44    -3.34    40.57     5.10   -18.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.24R    0.05  
Burnley          23   22  -20      -3.20    31.77    -9.23    36.25     4.82   -30.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.17R    0.29  
Newcastle        23   21  -12      -5.66    19.37    -4.01    38.33     5.00   -17.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.63R    0.15  
Cardiff          23   19  -25      -1.03    44.86    -4.59    31.32     4.66   -39.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.81R    4.10  
Fulham           23   14  -30      -5.78    17.44    -5.70    26.46     4.77   -45.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.51R   22.77  
Huddersfield     23   11  -27      -6.91    10.83    -3.94    21.60     4.34   -43.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.94R   72.59  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 January 2019, Bolton 0 2 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    28   54  +17      10.79    91.59     9.85    82.30     6.02    22.37    27.03    48.78    93.41    58.57P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         28   53  +16       9.83    88.98     8.90    81.86     6.04    22.38    24.43    46.10    92.46    56.04P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       28   50  +22      -1.18    43.60     2.25    82.03     6.01    33.43    28.25    51.04    93.59    65.14P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       28   50  +17       5.88    76.79     8.51    78.42     5.96    22.57    11.04    25.78    82.78    38.79P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   47  +11       0.84    54.36    -0.15    76.20     5.86    17.50     5.30    14.41    70.90    31.28P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   46   +5       2.69    63.49    -2.31    74.81     5.96    11.15     2.83     8.86    60.39    21.60P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +6       3.27    66.20     2.54    68.94     5.95     6.35     0.38     1.56    23.32     5.98P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            28   40   +6      -1.00    45.26     2.25    66.06     5.96     7.92     0.11     0.52    12.87     3.35P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         28   40   +5      -3.59    32.79    -2.67    68.13     5.99    10.05     0.26     1.16    20.68     6.35P    0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       28   40   -4       3.38    66.69    -1.02    63.90     6.11    -5.35     0.04     0.15     6.47     1.37P    0.05R    0.00  
Birmingham      28   39   +7       4.22    71.30    12.25    62.15     5.89     4.63     0.02     0.08     3.89     0.69P    0.07R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   39   +7       1.06    55.90     7.82    63.32     5.91     6.39     0.02     0.13     5.84     1.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   39   +6      -5.44    24.65    -3.14    67.69     6.07    12.02     0.24     1.14    19.99     6.35P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             28   39   -5       4.42    71.72     1.19    60.86     5.81    -9.47     0.00     0.03     1.97     0.33P    0.11R    0.00  
Stoke           28   38   -2      -3.06    35.55    -5.80    64.13     6.09     0.30     0.05     0.22     7.17     1.96P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   35  -12       0.06    51.00    -6.51    58.42     5.96   -14.07     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.17P    0.62R    0.01  
Brentford       28   34   +4      -7.47    17.30    -0.31    60.43     6.08     6.60     0.00     0.03     2.51     0.63P    0.23R    0.00  
Preston         28   33   -2      -6.03    22.48    -2.65    57.95     5.99    -1.77     0.00     0.01     0.80     0.17P    0.58R    0.01  
Millwall        28   29  -10      -5.99    22.26    -4.76    50.88     5.82   -14.34     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    7.74R    0.41  
Wigan           28   29  -13      -6.02    22.32    -8.15    52.81     5.95   -14.18     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P    4.97R    0.23  
Rotherham       28   25  -19      -2.29    39.02    -0.98    41.43     5.54   -32.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.79R   12.46  
Reading         28   23  -12      -8.54    12.72    -1.12    43.34     5.79   -18.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.06R    7.14  
Bolton          28   22  -24      -2.75    35.77    -3.71    38.14     5.32   -36.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.39R   31.09  
Ipswich         28   18  -26     -11.32     5.68   -12.32    35.98     5.54   -36.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.33R   48.65  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 22 January 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 0 3 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           28   57  +20      11.99    93.47    10.30    85.33     6.04    25.37    12.64    29.29    96.93    44.28P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                28   56  +29       6.93    80.50    12.88    88.93     5.99    41.54    31.44    57.95    99.35    70.19P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           27   53  +22       3.89    68.63     3.63    88.75     6.15    36.75    29.72    54.33    98.95    69.15P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             29   53  +16       6.49    79.13     6.09    80.84     5.86    22.63     2.75     9.64    88.97    27.78P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             27   52  +24       2.67    63.19     5.59    87.46     6.13    38.07    22.90    46.38    98.60    64.26P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         28   47   +9       4.40    70.45     2.88    74.85     6.13    13.71     0.38     1.54    56.78    12.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            28   46  +14       3.24    65.64     7.57    72.62     6.05    16.70     0.16     0.85    42.28     8.81P    0.00R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       29   39   +8      -3.26    34.48     4.42    63.47     5.81     9.71     0.00     0.01     4.39     0.90P    0.68R    0.01  
Blackpool            27   39   +2       1.52    58.26     0.99    64.63     6.08     1.64     0.00     0.00     6.17     1.11P    0.53R    0.01  
Coventry             29   39   -3       3.46    67.25     2.56    59.25     5.63    -7.31     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.09P    4.01R    0.07  
Southend             28   38   +4      -2.31    38.81     1.29    62.58     6.01     3.79     0.00     0.00     3.60     0.70P    1.23R    0.02  
Wycombe              28   38   -2       3.92    69.52     4.98    59.56     5.92    -7.12     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.11P    4.39R    0.12  
Burton_Albion        28   36   +0      -3.67    33.04    -1.85    59.48     6.01    -1.89     0.00     0.00     1.14     0.24P    4.02R    0.14  
Accrington_Stanley   27   35   -9       3.89    70.20    -0.55    56.51     6.01   -15.79     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.04P   12.44R    0.57  
Walsall              29   35  -12       0.74    54.28    -3.45    55.41     5.67   -16.43     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   15.37R    0.80  
Scunthorpe           29   34  -17      -3.40    34.11   -12.78    56.49     5.80   -18.55     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   12.47R    0.67  
Plymouth             29   33  -13      -1.93    41.19    -5.10    52.03     5.68   -20.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   33.72R    3.07  
Shrewsbury           28   31   -6      -6.41    20.61    -4.88    55.87     5.96    -5.60     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   13.40R    0.80  
Gillingham           28   31   -9      -3.26    34.53    -2.15    53.37     5.95   -12.96     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   25.24R    2.20  
Rochdale             29   31  -24      -0.63    47.77   -10.51    49.66     5.58   -31.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.23R    7.95  
Oxford_Utd           28   30   -9      -5.49    24.54    -4.09    52.80     6.00   -12.05     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   27.95R    2.79  
Bristol_Rovers       28   28   -5      -7.82    15.71    -1.31    49.89     5.83    -8.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   44.88R    6.17  
Bradford             28   27  -16      -6.32    20.80    -7.96    48.95     5.91   -20.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    53.57R    9.38  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   23  -23      -6.66    18.95    -8.56    40.64     5.43   -31.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.87R   65.22  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 22 January 2019, Forest_Green 3 0 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     28   58  +24      10.26    90.74    10.14    87.80     5.90    31.64    52.02    87.71    99.62    90.89P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             29   52  +22       1.24    55.63     5.07    82.68     5.79    33.31    18.57    66.35    97.36    76.03P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        28   51  +19       4.50    71.97     7.25    81.51     5.88    27.51    12.93    55.44    95.83    67.39P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         29   48  +12       2.30    61.19     3.24    74.09     5.85    16.18     1.22    12.14    69.26    25.62P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          27   47  +20      -1.62    41.15     2.66    81.21     6.13    32.00    13.59    55.65    94.77    69.54P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     28   47  +16       7.32    82.24    14.32    72.17     5.93    16.81     0.75     7.93    57.25    16.83P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       29   46  +11       0.89    54.34     3.05    71.45     5.76    14.10     0.35     5.38    52.24    16.60P    0.00R    0.00  
Exeter           28   44   +9      -0.05    49.95     0.65    71.17     6.00    12.66     0.42     5.75    49.50    16.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage        29   44   -1       4.40    71.03    -0.70    66.52     5.71    -2.20     0.02     0.86    18.54     4.06P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         28   42   +7       2.90    64.48     6.17    65.59     6.06     5.33     0.06     1.00    17.79     4.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon          29   40   -5      -0.01    50.60    -5.46    64.35     5.70    -3.62     0.00     0.27    10.50     2.34P    0.02R    0.00  
Oldham           28   39   +6      -5.55    24.77    -3.18    66.68     6.07    10.36     0.05     1.23    23.49     7.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County   27   39   -7       5.23    75.87    -1.59    62.18     6.09   -11.52     0.01     0.19     6.38     1.13P    0.14R    0.02  
Crewe            29   38   -5       1.52    58.19     0.09    60.74     5.74    -5.77     0.00     0.06     3.64     0.68P    0.17R    0.02  
Grimsby          29   34   -9       0.86    55.40     0.44    53.94     5.58   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.01P    2.95R    0.57  
Northampton      28   33   -1      -7.07    19.17    -3.42    59.42     6.04     1.44     0.00     0.04     3.03     0.70P    0.44R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     29   33   -8      -2.51    38.11    -1.50    52.78     5.55   -13.58     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    4.61R    0.98  
Port_Vale        28   32   -9      -2.26    38.98    -3.38    54.38     5.79   -12.29     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    2.96R    0.58  
Cambridge_Utd    29   32  -21      -1.33    44.10   -11.34    51.70     5.56   -26.50     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    8.01R    1.79  
Yeovil           28   30   -4      -4.38    28.94     1.77    52.42     5.77    -7.35     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    5.26R    1.14  
Cheltenham       28   29  -11      -4.11    30.30    -2.52    51.67     5.89   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    7.60R    2.15  
Morecambe        29   28  -17      -3.33    33.83    -4.44    46.58     5.48   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.90R   10.34  
Macclesfield     29   27  -18      -0.59    48.41     0.28    42.74     5.27   -29.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.32R   27.06  
Notts_County     29   21  -30     -11.34     6.72   -17.62    39.88     5.63   -37.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.61R   55.28  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 January 2019, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      30   57  +27       5.28    74.03    11.46    85.60     5.40    36.99    42.23    94.90    58.86P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     30   57  +20      12.40    93.55    14.77    80.81     5.54    22.95    12.03    76.70    24.50P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       30   56  +25       7.64    81.09    13.87    82.84     5.76    32.42    22.53    86.13    37.95P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          30   53  +24       1.83    58.40     8.98    81.18     5.46    33.42    15.19    81.35    35.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   53  +14       7.35    82.29     7.18    77.97     5.39    18.60     4.17    57.68    17.14P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       4.90    71.31    11.15    74.27     5.79    20.61     1.72    33.74     8.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Sutton_United      29   49   +6       6.65    79.42     2.15    74.19     5.77     9.00     1.36    29.47     7.35P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   47  +14       0.90    54.48     6.42    71.95     5.61    18.47     0.54    20.14     5.39P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          30   47   +8       2.33    61.26     2.55    70.29     5.53    10.12     0.16    11.94     2.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastleigh          30   46   -4       7.68    82.42     0.02    67.06     5.46    -5.46     0.02     3.46     0.50P    0.03R    0.00  
Bromley            30   40   -1      -2.05    40.64    -2.37    62.57     5.61    -0.22     0.00     0.71     0.13P    0.42R    0.00  
Barrow             30   40   -2       0.87    54.84     0.48    59.98     5.42    -4.46     0.00     0.18     0.04P    1.17R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          30   38   -1      -5.14    26.52    -4.14    61.28     5.59     0.99     0.00     0.43     0.10P    0.81R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   38   -3      -3.68    32.65    -4.40    59.13     5.46    -3.78     0.00     0.11     0.02P    1.74R    0.00  
Hartlepool         30   36   -9      -2.26    39.69    -5.07    55.54     5.40   -12.25     0.00     0.01     0.00     7.19R    0.05  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -4.06    29.84   -11.39    64.68     6.44    -2.61     0.04     3.03     0.85P    0.49R    0.00  
Halifax            29   34   -5      -0.42    48.68     1.67    53.98     5.52    -9.12     0.00     0.01     0.00P   12.58R    0.10  
Havant_&_Wville    30   32   -9      -2.24    40.35     2.77    49.36     5.57   -16.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.02R    1.14  
Dover_Athletic     30   32  -16      -6.64    20.73   -12.65    53.43     5.55   -16.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.09R    0.19  
Maidenhead         30   31  -21      -1.89    41.75    -7.88    47.19     5.23   -30.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.82R    2.47  
Chesterfield       29   29   -8     -12.33     6.32   -10.61    54.02     5.78    -5.36     0.00     0.00     0.00P   12.93R    0.24  
Aldershot          29   27  -23      -7.34    17.23   -15.42    47.32     5.62   -26.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.99R    3.67  
Maidstone_United   30   25  -23      -5.36    24.59    -6.94    40.59     5.13   -32.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.21R   23.79  
Braintree_Town     30   22  -24      -5.56    24.36    -2.61    35.76     5.10   -36.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.50R   68.34