Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 25 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 January 2019, Fulham 1 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        23   60  +41      11.10    97.31    11.31    93.89     4.59    63.95    62.31    97.17    99.79    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   56  +45       2.11    63.36     3.31    91.35     4.38    72.05    36.60    93.85    99.39    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   51  +25       4.23    73.76    -0.03    81.16     4.83    40.54     1.04     7.82    71.46    90.53   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   47  +21       3.04    67.02     1.93    75.19     4.98    32.77     0.04     0.80    16.89    54.15    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   44  +16       2.58    64.56    -0.35    71.82     5.13    27.49     0.01     0.15     6.04    25.79    99.09     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   44  +13       0.94    55.03    -5.01    72.45     5.10    25.38     0.00     0.21     6.43    29.65    99.34     0.00     0.00  
Watford          23   33   +0       4.84    76.60     6.32    49.97     4.92    -7.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    23   32   -4       5.40    79.48     4.97    51.10     5.23    -6.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.01R    0.00  
Leicester        23   31   +0      -0.72    46.05     0.72    50.55     5.11    -2.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         23   31   -4       2.64    65.50     2.55    48.79     5.01   -10.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.05R    0.00  
Everton          23   30   +1      -2.43    35.93     1.07    49.58     5.24    -1.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth      23   30   -9       3.07    68.34     0.85    47.42     5.06   -15.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.17R    0.00  
Brighton         23   26   -7       0.94    56.83     3.53    44.16     5.02   -11.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   22   -9      -4.46    25.02     0.03    40.82     5.14   -12.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.63R    0.05  
Southampton      23   22  -15      -3.13    31.94    -3.43    40.60     5.07   -18.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.23R    0.07  
Burnley          23   22  -20      -3.24    31.30    -9.27    36.26     4.77   -30.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.96R    0.27  
Newcastle        23   21  -12      -5.69    19.32    -4.10    38.32     5.01   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.65R    0.16  
Cardiff          23   19  -25      -1.13    44.21    -4.72    31.34     4.67   -39.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.72R    3.89  
Fulham           23   14  -30      -5.78    17.62    -5.75    26.48     4.78   -45.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.49R   22.87  
Huddersfield     23   11  -27      -6.92    10.85    -3.92    21.62     4.33   -43.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.99R   72.69  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 January 2019, Bolton 0 2 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    28   54  +17      10.75    91.21     9.80    82.29     6.04    22.39    26.82    48.49    93.47    58.18P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         28   53  +16      10.00    89.35     9.19    81.80     6.03    22.25    23.81    45.68    92.43    55.72P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       28   50  +22      -1.17    43.75     2.27    82.07     6.01    33.49    28.56    51.51    93.70    65.67P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       28   50  +17       5.84    76.56     8.39    78.53     5.92    22.71    11.45    26.07    83.33    39.38P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   47  +11       0.90    54.23    -0.06    76.14     5.87    17.43     5.28    14.34    70.72    31.16P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   46   +5       2.92    64.38    -1.94    74.63     6.01    10.89     2.82     8.58    59.24    20.89P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +6       3.17    65.80     2.45    69.04     5.99     6.50     0.43     1.73    24.25     6.50P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            28   40   +6      -0.99    45.46     2.30    66.07     5.98     7.92     0.14     0.57    12.84     3.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         28   40   +5      -3.55    33.17    -2.65    68.09     6.04    10.06     0.29     1.29    20.86     6.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   40   -4       3.22    66.05    -1.26    63.93     6.05    -5.29     0.03     0.14     6.37     1.32P    0.05R    0.00  
Birmingham      28   39   +7       4.28    71.41    12.34    62.09     5.88     4.58     0.02     0.09     3.75     0.73P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   39   +7       1.03    55.63     7.75    63.38     5.93     6.48     0.02     0.14     5.95     1.24P    0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   39   +6      -5.23    25.72    -2.81    67.63     6.10    11.86     0.29     1.13    19.73     6.20P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             28   39   -5       4.28    71.15     0.95    60.90     5.83    -9.42     0.01     0.04     2.14     0.34P    0.11R    0.00  
Stoke           28   38   -2      -3.01    35.70    -5.76    64.10     6.08     0.25     0.03     0.16     7.07     1.93P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   35  -12       0.01    50.81    -6.63    58.41     6.01   -14.09     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.15P    0.68R    0.00  
Brentford       28   34   +4      -7.45    17.32    -0.28    60.47     6.05     6.61     0.00     0.02     2.44     0.57P    0.22R    0.00  
Preston         28   33   -2      -5.97    22.86    -2.57    57.90     6.00    -1.84     0.00     0.01     0.81     0.19P    0.61R    0.02  
Millwall        28   29  -10      -6.05    22.00    -4.85    50.95     5.84   -14.25     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    7.75R    0.34  
Wigan           28   29  -13      -6.18    22.05    -8.36    52.87     6.00   -14.06     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P    5.05R    0.23  
Rotherham       28   25  -19      -2.33    38.97    -1.06    41.43     5.54   -32.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.22R   12.26  
Reading         28   23  -12      -8.55    12.84    -1.11    43.33     5.78   -18.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.18R    7.27  
Bolton          28   22  -24      -2.81    35.76    -3.82    38.13     5.31   -36.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.54R   31.16  
Ipswich         28   18  -26     -11.28     5.66   -12.27    35.99     5.55   -36.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.43R   48.72  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 22 January 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 0 3 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           28   57  +20      12.07    93.72    10.41    85.21     5.99    25.20    12.05    28.31    96.82    43.03P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                28   56  +29       6.83    79.95    12.74    88.97     6.00    41.57    31.52    58.06    99.29    70.53P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           27   53  +22       3.81    68.12     3.44    88.86     6.12    36.97    30.03    55.33    99.08    70.07P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             29   53  +16       6.35    78.24     5.91    80.93     5.88    22.80     2.97     9.98    88.97    28.71P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             27   52  +24       2.63    62.83     5.48    87.45     6.18    38.09    22.89    45.94    98.55    63.97P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         28   47   +9       4.36    70.44     2.83    74.89     6.14    13.74     0.33     1.46    57.02    11.93P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            28   46  +14       3.24    65.67     7.59    72.67     6.04    16.79     0.19     0.89    42.64     8.71P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       29   39   +8      -3.40    33.85     4.26    63.50     5.81     9.76     0.01     0.01     4.32     0.80P    0.67R    0.00  
Blackpool            27   39   +2       1.58    58.87     1.09    64.69     6.08     1.67     0.00     0.01     6.16     1.09P    0.58R    0.01  
Coventry             29   39   -3       3.59    67.69     2.73    59.21     5.65    -7.39     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.11P    4.09R    0.07  
Southend             28   38   +4      -2.03    40.28     1.70    62.41     6.00     3.55     0.00     0.00     3.36     0.59P    1.20R    0.02  
Wycombe              28   38   -2       3.98    69.61     5.00    59.61     5.94    -7.06     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.13P    4.31R    0.11  
Burton_Albion        28   36   +0      -3.30    34.59    -1.31    59.26     6.01    -2.21     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.19P    4.50R    0.17  
Accrington_Stanley   27   35   -9       4.08    70.62    -0.20    56.40     6.01   -15.97     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P   12.77R    0.66  
Walsall              29   35  -12       0.82    54.91    -3.32    55.39     5.65   -16.45     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   15.32R    0.90  
Scunthorpe           29   34  -17      -3.64    33.06   -13.14    56.63     5.78   -18.37     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P   11.96R    0.60  
Plymouth             29   33  -13      -1.97    40.96    -5.11    51.97     5.62   -20.11     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    34.33R    2.80  
Shrewsbury           28   31   -6      -6.46    20.20    -4.95    55.87     5.94    -5.55     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P   13.23R    0.76  
Gillingham           28   31   -9      -3.33    34.40    -2.24    53.37     5.92   -13.01     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00    25.31R    2.16  
Rochdale             29   31  -24      -0.87    46.51   -10.93    49.78     5.57   -31.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.45R    7.56  
Oxford_Utd           28   30   -9      -5.56    24.44    -4.25    52.86     5.97   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   27.72R    2.64  
Bristol_Rovers       28   28   -5      -7.89    15.13    -1.41    49.86     5.84    -8.92     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   45.04R    6.33  
Bradford             28   27  -16      -6.32    20.90    -7.97    49.00     5.94   -20.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.66R    9.24  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   23  -23      -6.56    19.21    -8.35    40.61     5.44   -31.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.85R   65.97  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 22 January 2019, Forest_Green 3 0 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     28   58  +24      10.44    90.93    10.35    87.80     5.93    31.60    51.78    87.61    99.63    90.84P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             29   52  +22       1.21    55.63     4.99    82.70     5.82    33.37    18.47    66.69    97.29    76.42P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        28   51  +19       4.41    71.23     7.15    81.56     5.86    27.59    13.08    55.92    96.10    67.74P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         29   48  +12       2.34    61.52     3.34    74.05     5.85    16.09     1.13    11.97    68.83    25.33P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          27   47  +20      -1.58    41.40     2.76    81.19     6.18    31.97    13.88    55.38    94.73    68.95P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     28   47  +16       7.31    82.60    14.29    72.21     5.92    16.86     0.65     7.80    57.59    16.92P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       29   46  +11       0.76    53.60     2.89    71.50     5.77    14.21     0.40     5.57    52.65    17.09P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           28   44   +9      -0.22    48.72     0.41    71.19     5.98    12.70     0.46     5.58    49.69    16.54P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        29   44   -1       4.41    71.17    -0.65    66.48     5.70    -2.25     0.04     0.77    18.42     3.92P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         28   42   +7       2.98    64.72     6.27    65.51     6.02     5.22     0.03     0.86    17.04     3.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          29   40   -5      -0.13    49.73    -5.61    64.50     5.72    -3.42     0.01     0.31    11.08     2.42P    0.02R    0.00  
Oldham           28   39   +6      -5.54    24.51    -3.21    66.73     6.01    10.41     0.05     1.22    23.38     7.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County   27   39   -7       5.23    75.78    -1.55    62.17     6.13   -11.54     0.01     0.21     6.44     1.12P    0.14R    0.02  
Crewe            29   38   -5       1.74    59.26     0.37    60.60     5.75    -5.97     0.00     0.06     3.36     0.58P    0.14R    0.01  
Grimsby          29   34   -9       0.84    55.16     0.40    53.98     5.57   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    2.88R    0.54  
Northampton      28   33   -1      -6.96    19.46    -3.22    59.39     6.08     1.40     0.00     0.05     2.98     0.73P    0.50R    0.09  
Crawley_Town     29   33   -8      -2.68    37.31    -1.73    52.77     5.56   -13.58     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    4.55R    0.98  
Port_Vale        28   32   -9      -2.30    38.72    -3.38    54.44     5.79   -12.24     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.05P    2.89R    0.63  
Cambridge_Utd    29   32  -21      -1.29    44.27   -11.24    51.64     5.59   -26.60     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    8.37R    2.02  
Yeovil           28   30   -4      -4.32    29.32     1.84    52.41     5.77    -7.38     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    5.22R    1.21  
Cheltenham       28   29  -11      -4.25    29.74    -2.70    51.69     5.87   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    7.49R    2.02  
Morecambe        29   28  -17      -3.28    34.20    -4.37    46.56     5.46   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.97R   10.29  
Macclesfield     29   27  -18      -0.67    47.74     0.10    42.79     5.28   -29.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.76R   26.73  
Notts_County     29   21  -30     -11.21     6.74   -17.49    39.81     5.59   -37.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.07R   55.45  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 January 2019, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      30   57  +27       5.38    74.61    11.65    85.58     5.44    36.96    42.40    94.53    58.64P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     30   57  +20      12.42    93.71    14.73    80.90     5.51    23.06    12.00    77.17    24.75P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       30   56  +25       7.50    81.06    13.69    82.85     5.75    32.48    22.76    86.25    38.69P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          30   53  +24       1.82    58.57     8.95    81.18     5.45    33.41    15.04    81.44    35.62P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   53  +14       7.49    82.69     7.38    77.91     5.39    18.56     4.03    57.29    16.83P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       4.98    71.64    11.30    74.21     5.80    20.49     1.77    33.34     8.43P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      29   49   +6       6.56    79.14     2.01    74.21     5.70     9.04     1.31    29.53     7.24P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   47  +14       0.84    54.34     6.35    71.98     5.61    18.51     0.43    20.38     5.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          30   47   +8       2.36    61.47     2.56    70.37     5.58    10.22     0.18    12.43     2.87P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          30   46   -4       7.68    82.60     0.03    67.00     5.45    -5.54     0.03     3.31     0.55P    0.02R    0.00  
Bromley            30   40   -1      -2.05    40.39    -2.33    62.50     5.63    -0.32     0.00     0.68     0.14P    0.43R    0.00  
Barrow             30   40   -2       0.86    54.82     0.47    59.98     5.39    -4.41     0.00     0.16     0.03P    1.02R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          30   38   -1      -5.16    26.63    -4.19    61.30     5.61     0.98     0.00     0.42     0.10P    0.81R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   38   -3      -3.83    31.77    -4.57    59.14     5.48    -3.81     0.00     0.10     0.02P    1.87R    0.01  
Hartlepool         30   36   -9      -2.39    38.77    -5.20    55.55     5.38   -12.23     0.00     0.01     0.00     7.16R    0.02  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -3.99    30.20   -11.30    64.61     6.46    -2.66     0.03     2.94     0.78P    0.57R    0.00  
Halifax            29   34   -5      -0.29    49.40     1.82    53.94     5.47    -9.22     0.00     0.01     0.00P   12.29R    0.08  
Havant_&_Wville    30   32   -9      -1.99    41.46     3.18    49.23     5.52   -16.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.07R    1.09  
Dover_Athletic     30   32  -16      -6.70    20.47   -12.70    53.45     5.55   -16.71     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.45R    0.20  
Maidenhead         30   31  -21      -2.01    40.99    -8.12    47.26     5.23   -30.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.97R    2.40  
Chesterfield       29   29   -8     -12.48     5.90   -10.81    54.16     5.81    -5.17     0.00     0.01     0.00    12.48R    0.24  
Aldershot          29   27  -23      -7.42    16.89   -15.56    47.38     5.63   -26.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.77R    3.71  
Maidstone_United   30   25  -23      -5.24    25.24    -6.74    40.53     5.08   -32.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.51R   24.00  
Braintree_Town     30   22  -24      -5.54    24.30    -2.61    35.77     5.11   -36.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.59R   68.25