Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 24 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 January 2019, Fulham 1 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        23   60  +41      10.99    96.98    11.13    93.90     4.58    64.03    62.26    97.10    99.77    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   56  +45       2.06    62.81     3.18    91.40     4.39    72.13    36.68    93.94    99.35    99.93   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   51  +25       4.16    73.29    -0.16    81.18     4.87    40.57     1.00     7.89    71.93    90.55   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   47  +21       3.12    67.31     2.06    75.14     4.96    32.72     0.05     0.74    16.74    54.54    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   44  +16       2.55    64.32    -0.42    71.88     5.10    27.62     0.00     0.15     6.08    26.09    99.15     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   44  +13       1.04    55.23    -4.84    72.35     5.09    25.24     0.00     0.18     6.13    28.92    99.29     0.00     0.00  
Watford          23   33   +0       4.70    75.82     6.10    50.04     4.96    -7.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.01R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    23   32   -4       5.38    79.36     4.99    51.13     5.26    -6.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        23   31   +0      -0.59    47.18     0.87    50.47     5.11    -2.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         23   31   -4       2.50    64.71     2.31    48.86     4.99    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.06R    0.00  
Everton          23   30   +1      -2.35    36.71     1.22    49.57     5.19    -1.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.07R    0.00  
Bournemouth      23   30   -9       3.16    68.54     1.02    47.32     5.05   -15.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.21R    0.00  
Brighton         23   26   -7       0.85    56.01     3.50    44.16     4.99   -11.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.98R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   22   -9      -4.50    24.88    -0.08    40.85     5.07   -12.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.51R    0.05  
Southampton      23   22  -15      -3.07    32.63    -3.36    40.57     5.09   -18.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.16R    0.08  
Burnley          23   22  -20      -3.27    31.32    -9.31    36.33     4.79   -30.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.49R    0.26  
Newcastle        23   21  -12      -5.68    19.12    -4.05    38.33     5.00   -17.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.76R    0.16  
Cardiff          23   19  -25      -1.05    44.88    -4.58    31.32     4.68   -39.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.03R    4.22  
Fulham           23   14  -30      -5.81    17.28    -5.77    26.45     4.75   -45.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.69R   22.43  
Huddersfield     23   11  -27      -6.86    10.88    -3.85    21.58     4.30   -43.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.00R   72.80  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 January 2019, Bolton 0 2 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    28   54  +17      10.62    90.97     9.57    82.45     6.02    22.59    27.42    49.55    93.73    59.20P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         28   53  +16       9.76    88.64     8.80    81.90     6.05    22.45    24.23    46.10    92.40    56.01P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       28   50  +22      -1.26    43.44     2.13    82.10     5.99    33.54    28.28    51.15    93.79    65.35P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       28   50  +17       5.85    76.81     8.46    78.41     5.94    22.59    10.86    25.17    82.54    38.65P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   47  +11       0.91    54.55     0.01    76.08     5.88    17.36     5.11    14.00    70.29    30.75P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   46   +5       2.67    63.04    -2.27    74.82     6.00    11.14     2.96     9.01    60.70    21.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +6       3.40    66.69     2.74    68.93     5.97     6.34     0.39     1.52    23.52     6.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Hull            28   40   +6      -1.08    44.92     2.24    66.10     5.96     7.97     0.10     0.49    12.96     3.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         28   40   +5      -3.63    32.61    -2.73    68.13     6.05    10.09     0.30     1.28    21.21     6.72P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   40   -4       3.30    66.28    -1.16    63.91     6.06    -5.34     0.02     0.15     6.25     1.29P    0.03R    0.00  
Birmingham      28   39   +7       4.18    71.21    12.15    62.17     5.89     4.68     0.01     0.08     3.99     0.71P    0.04R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   39   +7       1.10    56.10     7.82    63.36     5.93     6.44     0.02     0.15     6.00     1.26P    0.03R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   39   +6      -5.20    25.60    -2.77    67.61     6.07    11.84     0.26     1.08    19.55     5.93P    0.00     0.00  
QPR             28   39   -5       4.36    71.58     1.10    60.84     5.82    -9.49     0.00     0.04     2.10     0.33P    0.08R    0.00  
Stoke           28   38   -2      -2.88    36.13    -5.57    64.08     6.02     0.20     0.04     0.19     6.75     1.80P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   35  -12      -0.02    50.41    -6.61    58.42     6.00   -14.06     0.00     0.01     0.84     0.16P    0.63R    0.01  
Brentford       28   34   +4      -7.46    17.34    -0.30    60.46     6.04     6.64     0.01     0.03     2.45     0.66P    0.23R    0.00  
Preston         28   33   -2      -6.04    22.29    -2.68    57.97     6.00    -1.75     0.00     0.01     0.85     0.21P    0.60R    0.01  
Millwall        28   29  -10      -5.91    22.62    -4.63    50.86     5.83   -14.39     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.66R    0.35  
Wigan           28   29  -13      -6.06    21.76    -8.26    52.84     5.92   -14.13     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    4.90R    0.19  
Rotherham       28   25  -19      -2.24    39.52    -0.97    41.34     5.48   -32.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.14R   12.43  
Reading         28   23  -12      -8.52    12.79    -1.01    43.31     5.74   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.72R    7.15  
Bolton          28   22  -24      -2.78    35.67    -3.79    38.10     5.27   -36.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.49R   31.36  
Ipswich         28   18  -26     -11.31     5.75   -12.27    35.98     5.53   -36.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.42R   48.49  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 22 January 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 0 3 Fleetwood_Town; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           28   57  +20      12.09    93.52    10.45    85.26     5.99    25.24    12.20    28.94    96.84    43.61P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                28   56  +29       6.87    80.17    12.80    88.95     5.97    41.56    31.64    58.27    99.27    70.23P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           27   53  +22       3.88    68.66     3.60    88.80     6.15    36.84    29.82    54.74    98.96    69.63P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             29   53  +16       6.43    78.53     6.00    80.83     5.86    22.69     2.75     9.39    88.79    27.92P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             27   52  +24       2.78    63.32     5.74    87.40     6.17    37.99    23.05    46.15    98.43    64.23P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         28   47   +9       4.26    70.12     2.65    74.98     6.11    13.88     0.36     1.62    57.76    12.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Doncaster            28   46  +14       3.17    65.43     7.48    72.63     6.02    16.75     0.18     0.86    41.95     8.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Fleetwood_Town       29   39   +8      -3.37    33.94     4.31    63.49     5.83     9.73     0.00     0.01     4.40     0.89P    0.75R    0.01  
Blackpool            27   39   +2       1.64    58.95     1.11    64.63     6.09     1.63     0.00     0.01     6.20     1.13P    0.56R    0.00  
Coventry             29   39   -3       3.50    67.28     2.57    59.24     5.61    -7.29     0.00     0.00     0.67     0.08P    3.91R    0.07  
Southend             28   38   +4      -2.28    39.22     1.36    62.58     6.03     3.77     0.00     0.00     3.66     0.65P    1.17R    0.03  
Wycombe              28   38   -2       4.06    69.84     5.13    59.45     5.95    -7.23     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.14P    4.49R    0.09  
Burton_Albion        28   36   +0      -3.33    34.35    -1.34    59.26     6.01    -2.19     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.20P    4.34R    0.13  
Accrington_Stanley   27   35   -9       4.00    70.53    -0.33    56.47     6.02   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.03P   12.75R    0.64  
Walsall              29   35  -12       0.68    54.22    -3.55    55.39     5.66   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   15.28R    0.78  
Scunthorpe           29   34  -17      -3.67    33.17   -13.21    56.62     5.83   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.03P   12.10R    0.63  
Plymouth             29   33  -13      -2.17    39.96    -5.40    52.14     5.66   -19.82     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    33.05R    2.82  
Shrewsbury           28   31   -6      -6.47    20.45    -4.97    55.94     5.95    -5.49     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P   13.09R    0.77  
Gillingham           28   31   -9      -3.02    35.81    -1.84    53.26     5.94   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   25.90R    2.32  
Rochdale             29   31  -24      -0.70    47.59   -10.57    49.69     5.60   -31.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   52.34R    7.82  
Oxford_Utd           28   30   -9      -5.68    23.69    -4.39    52.96     6.01   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   27.23R    2.49  
Bristol_Rovers       28   28   -5      -7.82    15.84    -1.30    49.86     5.85    -8.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   45.24R    6.18  
Bradford             28   27  -16      -6.32    20.93    -7.97    48.97     5.91   -20.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   53.69R    9.13  
AFC_Wimbledon        29   23  -23      -6.51    19.50    -8.34    40.54     5.43   -31.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.10R   66.11  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 22 January 2019, Forest_Green 3 0 Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     28   58  +24      10.39    91.07    10.28    87.82     5.93    31.63    52.05    87.45    99.62    90.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             29   52  +22       1.22    55.51     4.99    82.70     5.85    33.32    18.52    66.44    97.24    76.24P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        28   51  +19       4.46    71.26     7.18    81.54     5.85    27.59    12.92    55.52    95.90    67.41P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         29   48  +12       2.37    61.45     3.37    74.06     5.88    16.16     1.21    12.07    68.92    25.49P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          27   47  +20      -1.66    40.86     2.65    81.25     6.16    32.02    13.62    55.81    94.77    69.42P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     28   47  +16       7.41    82.86    14.45    72.13     5.93    16.78     0.72     7.73    56.93    16.57P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       29   46  +11       0.82    53.97     2.97    71.40     5.77    14.07     0.38     5.40    51.63    16.40P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           28   44   +9      -0.33    48.39     0.27    71.37     6.00    12.96     0.47     5.96    51.11    17.16P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        29   44   -1       4.53    71.48    -0.46    66.44     5.72    -2.31     0.02     0.88    18.44     4.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         28   42   +7       2.99    64.55     6.27    65.55     6.04     5.26     0.03     0.86    17.42     4.12P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon          29   40   -5      -0.13    49.70    -5.60    64.48     5.70    -3.46     0.01     0.27    11.02     2.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Oldham           28   39   +6      -5.47    24.88    -3.12    66.67     6.04    10.33     0.05     1.29    23.31     7.18P    0.01R    0.00  
Newport_County   27   39   -7       5.29    76.14    -1.54    62.20     6.11   -11.51     0.01     0.23     6.38     1.15P    0.09R    0.01  
Crewe            29   38   -5       1.69    59.04     0.31    60.57     5.73    -6.01     0.00     0.03     3.45     0.66P    0.15R    0.02  
Grimsby          29   34   -9       0.88    55.47     0.47    53.95     5.59   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P    2.88R    0.55  
Northampton      28   33   -1      -7.09    19.09    -3.43    59.44     6.04     1.47     0.00     0.05     2.96     0.81P    0.41R    0.08  
Crawley_Town     29   33   -8      -2.49    38.43    -1.48    52.69     5.56   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    4.77R    1.03  
Port_Vale        28   32   -9      -2.39    38.42    -3.43    54.41     5.77   -12.33     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    2.80R    0.60  
Cambridge_Utd    29   32  -21      -1.30    44.29   -11.27    51.75     5.57   -26.44     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    7.76R    1.87  
Yeovil           28   30   -4      -4.41    28.54     1.68    52.40     5.77    -7.34     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    5.25R    1.27  
Cheltenham       28   29  -11      -4.24    29.63    -2.73    51.70     5.91   -14.17     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    7.77R    2.11  
Morecambe        29   28  -17      -3.41    33.54    -4.52    46.58     5.51   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.71R   10.26  
Macclesfield     29   27  -18      -0.63    48.14     0.22    42.72     5.25   -29.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.43R   26.91  
Notts_County     29   21  -30     -11.33     6.60   -17.54    39.87     5.58   -37.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.95R   55.30  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 January 2019, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      30   57  +27       5.37    74.13    11.64    85.60     5.41    37.00    42.25    94.84    58.85P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     30   57  +20      12.34    93.41    14.69    80.84     5.52    22.98    12.22    76.89    24.73P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       30   56  +25       7.58    80.83    13.76    82.80     5.74    32.39    22.52    86.00    38.21P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          30   53  +24       1.68    57.87     8.77    81.24     5.46    33.50    15.25    81.50    36.08P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   53  +14       7.50    82.69     7.38    77.98     5.38    18.63     3.97    57.46    16.66P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       4.86    71.25    11.10    74.29     5.80    20.67     1.68    33.82     8.43P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      29   49   +6       6.59    79.34     2.05    74.17     5.76     9.01     1.37    29.26     7.12P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   47  +14       0.84    54.01     6.32    71.97     5.59    18.47     0.46    20.30     5.22P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          30   47   +8       2.12    60.23     2.28    70.38     5.54    10.25     0.22    12.27     2.92P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          30   46   -4       7.78    82.80     0.19    66.99     5.41    -5.51     0.04     3.26     0.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Bromley            30   40   -1      -1.90    41.16    -2.12    62.52     5.66    -0.29     0.00     0.69     0.13P    0.44R    0.00  
Barrow             30   40   -2       1.05    55.99     0.75    59.91     5.43    -4.57     0.00     0.17     0.04P    1.24R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          30   38   -1      -5.27    26.31    -4.37    61.31     5.63     1.03     0.00     0.47     0.14P    0.86R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   38   -3      -3.83    31.77    -4.63    59.21     5.46    -3.70     0.00     0.12     0.03P    1.74R    0.00  
Hartlepool         30   36   -9      -2.25    39.66    -5.02    55.55     5.39   -12.22     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.24R    0.03  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -3.90    30.56   -11.11    64.53     6.45    -2.78     0.02     2.94     0.83P    0.58R    0.00  
Halifax            29   34   -5      -0.21    49.74     1.97    53.92     5.48    -9.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.71R    0.09  
Havant_&_Wville    30   32   -9      -2.19    40.38     2.88    49.27     5.48   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.50R    1.04  
Dover_Athletic     30   32  -16      -6.80    20.10   -12.79    53.49     5.53   -16.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.76R    0.23  
Maidenhead         30   31  -21      -1.86    41.70    -7.89    47.19     5.25   -30.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.45R    2.53  
Chesterfield       29   29   -8     -12.50     5.91   -10.90    54.12     5.86    -5.23     0.00     0.01     0.00    12.90R    0.21  
Aldershot          29   27  -23      -7.37    16.92   -15.45    47.38     5.59   -26.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.69R    3.66  
Maidstone_United   30   25  -23      -5.30    25.14    -6.86    40.56     5.08   -32.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.37R   23.75  
Braintree_Town     30   22  -24      -5.59    23.94    -2.65    35.77     5.09   -36.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.51R   68.47