Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 22 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 20 January 2019, Fulham 1 2 Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        23   60  +41      10.91    97.02    10.97    93.98     4.58    64.16    62.49    97.14    99.79    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         23   56  +45       2.04    62.64     3.16    91.44     4.40    72.19    36.44    93.87    99.34    99.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        23   51  +25       4.11    73.33    -0.18    81.19     4.86    40.53     1.02     7.86    71.95    90.41    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          23   47  +21       3.03    66.96     1.97    75.17     4.99    32.76     0.04     0.82    17.00    54.99    99.85     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          23   44  +16       2.75    65.21    -0.12    71.76     5.10    27.43     0.01     0.15     5.88    25.72    99.11     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          23   44  +13       1.10    55.98    -4.70    72.29     5.11    25.15     0.01     0.15     6.03    28.97    99.30     0.00     0.00  
Watford          23   33   +0       4.71    76.02     6.08    50.10     4.96    -7.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.02R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    23   32   -4       5.46    79.44     5.08    51.11     5.20    -6.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        23   31   +0      -0.75    46.05     0.64    50.50     5.11    -2.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham         23   31   -4       2.57    65.14     2.49    48.85     4.99    -9.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.06R    0.00  
Everton          23   30   +1      -2.36    36.24     1.19    49.51     5.21    -1.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05R    0.00  
Bournemouth      23   30   -9       3.04    68.17     0.84    47.39     5.07   -15.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.22R    0.00  
Brighton         23   26   -7       0.93    56.60     3.55    44.15     5.00   -11.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.94R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   22   -9      -4.51    24.96    -0.08    40.88     5.12   -12.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     4.43R    0.05  
Southampton      23   22  -15      -3.04    32.62    -3.32    40.51     5.08   -18.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     5.44R    0.06  
Burnley          23   22  -20      -3.25    31.33    -9.31    36.33     4.76   -30.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.60R    0.29  
Newcastle        23   21  -12      -5.59    19.47    -3.98    38.27     5.00   -17.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.99R    0.15  
Cardiff          23   19  -25      -1.05    44.84    -4.61    31.33     4.70   -39.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.80R    4.09  
Fulham           23   14  -30      -5.74    17.67    -5.64    26.44     4.79   -45.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.45R   22.98  
Huddersfield     23   11  -27      -6.99    10.59    -4.03    21.64     4.32   -43.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.96R   72.39  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 21 January 2019, Bolton 0 2 West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    28   54  +17      10.72    91.50     9.78    82.40     6.00    22.52    27.58    49.38    93.78    59.03P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         28   53  +16       9.92    89.30     9.06    81.84     6.06    22.35    24.09    46.12    92.22    56.03P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       28   50  +22      -1.14    43.52     2.36    81.98     6.01    33.37    27.92    50.63    93.44    64.71P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       28   50  +17       5.86    76.72     8.43    78.47     5.95    22.68    11.19    25.84    82.83    39.04P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   28   47  +11       1.06    55.33     0.16    76.04     5.85    17.30     5.06    13.84    69.95    30.48P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           28   46   +5       2.71    63.28    -2.22    74.77     5.96    11.08     2.89     8.80    60.28    21.28P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    28   44   +6       3.08    65.19     2.27    69.05     5.98     6.49     0.45     1.79    24.18     6.61P    0.00     0.00  
Hull            28   40   +6      -1.03    45.23     2.31    66.07     5.99     7.88     0.09     0.54    12.83     3.27P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea         28   40   +5      -3.72    32.38    -2.88    68.18     6.03    10.16     0.30     1.23    21.06     6.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackburn       28   40   -4       3.19    66.16    -1.31    64.01     6.06    -5.18     0.04     0.20     6.52     1.37P    0.04R    0.00  
Birmingham      28   39   +7       4.19    71.16    12.22    62.17     5.87     4.68     0.02     0.10     3.98     0.76P    0.06R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   28   39   +7       1.06    55.86     7.76    63.41     5.94     6.51     0.04     0.17     5.93     1.28P    0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     28   39   +6      -5.32    25.25    -2.97    67.67     6.05    11.92     0.29     1.10    19.63     6.02P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR             28   39   -5       4.34    71.67     1.08    60.87     5.83    -9.44     0.01     0.03     2.22     0.40P    0.10R    0.00  
Stoke           28   38   -2      -2.98    35.66    -5.69    64.09     6.08     0.24     0.03     0.20     7.00     1.90P    0.04R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       28   35  -12       0.02    50.91    -6.57    58.40     5.95   -14.15     0.00     0.01     0.83     0.16P    0.58R    0.01  
Brentford       28   34   +4      -7.48    17.37    -0.34    60.47     6.03     6.63     0.01     0.02     2.44     0.60P    0.19R    0.00  
Preston         28   33   -2      -6.02    22.39    -2.67    57.96     5.99    -1.75     0.00     0.01     0.82     0.19P    0.64R    0.01  
Millwall        28   29  -10      -6.08    22.17    -4.89    50.93     5.83   -14.29     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.58R    0.39  
Wigan           28   29  -13      -5.95    22.68    -8.05    52.78     5.98   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    5.13R    0.21  
Rotherham       28   25  -19      -2.22    39.46    -0.92    41.34     5.53   -32.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.76R   12.35  
Reading         28   23  -12      -8.46    12.97    -0.92    43.31     5.77   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.81R    7.04  
Bolton          28   22  -24      -2.68    36.39    -3.59    38.03     5.31   -36.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.73R   31.86  
Ipswich         28   18  -26     -11.34     5.65   -12.39    35.97     5.58   -36.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.30R   48.13  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 January 2019, AFC_Wimbledon 1 4 Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           28   57  +20      12.14    93.44    10.54    85.16     6.00    25.13    12.05    28.39    96.68    43.17P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                28   56  +29       6.87    80.11    12.81    88.98     5.99    41.61    31.49    57.93    99.44    70.47P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           27   53  +22       3.98    68.78     3.72    88.79     6.12    36.82    29.71    54.76    99.10    69.50P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             29   53  +16       6.36    78.59     5.91    80.93     5.85    22.84     2.98     9.75    89.59    28.68P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             27   52  +24       2.64    62.55     5.51    87.51     6.19    38.16    23.29    46.81    98.66    64.76P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         28   47   +9       4.31    70.44     2.75    74.97     6.11    13.85     0.32     1.55    57.98    12.11P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            28   46  +14       3.18    65.39     7.49    72.57     6.01    16.69     0.16     0.78    42.00     8.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Blackpool            27   39   +2       1.62    58.60     1.11    64.72     6.07     1.71     0.01     0.02     6.44     1.09P    0.53R    0.01  
Coventry             29   39   -3       3.62    67.89     2.71    59.26     5.63    -7.29     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.11P    3.78R    0.08  
Southend             28   38   +4      -2.35    38.58     1.23    62.56     5.99     3.78     0.00     0.00     3.54     0.63P    1.11R    0.03  
Wycombe              28   38   -2       4.15    70.41     5.27    59.44     5.92    -7.28     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.15P    4.36R    0.15  
Fleetwood_Town       28   36   +5      -3.74    31.90     3.17    61.51     6.04     6.21     0.00     0.00     2.54     0.50P    1.82R    0.06  
Burton_Albion        28   36   +0      -3.50    33.71    -1.57    59.33     6.00    -2.09     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.19P    4.21R    0.14  
Accrington_Stanley   27   35   -9       3.98    70.48    -0.44    56.47     6.03   -15.84     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P   12.62R    0.81  
Walsall              28   35  -11       1.81    59.98    -2.93    56.83     5.85   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.04P   10.81R    0.64  
Scunthorpe           29   34  -17      -3.79    32.52   -13.40    56.72     5.84   -18.24     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P   11.85R    0.83  
Shrewsbury           28   31   -6      -6.47    20.44    -4.97    55.96     5.93    -5.49     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   12.61R    0.93  
Gillingham           28   31   -9      -3.20    34.78    -2.05    53.32     5.95   -13.03     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   25.16R    2.90  
Rochdale             29   31  -24      -0.77    47.20   -10.74    49.62     5.54   -32.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.09R    9.41  
Oxford_Utd           28   30   -9      -5.54    24.40    -4.17    52.78     5.99   -12.11     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   27.56R    3.24  
Plymouth             28   30  -14      -3.36    34.09    -5.72    50.42     5.84   -20.95     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    44.07R    6.81  
Bristol_Rovers       28   28   -5      -7.87    15.44    -1.39    49.93     5.85    -8.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    44.21R    7.27  
Bradford             28   27  -16      -6.26    21.02    -7.85    48.92     5.93   -20.21     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   53.85R   11.43  
AFC_Wimbledon        28   23  -20      -6.21    20.13    -7.00    42.10     5.64   -28.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.35R   55.28  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 January 2019, Cambridge_Utd 3 2 Northampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     27   55  +22       9.41    89.01     9.27    86.11     6.15    29.51    42.89    81.39    99.12    86.14P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             29   52  +22       1.15    55.07     4.92    82.71     5.81    33.35    21.68    68.46    97.61    77.75P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        28   51  +19       4.29    70.66     6.95    81.75     5.85    27.90    16.37    58.98    96.65    70.18P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         29   48  +12       2.43    62.13     3.40    74.06     5.84    16.14     1.51    12.93    70.41    26.71P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          27   47  +20      -1.49    41.72     2.85    81.10     6.15    31.82    15.71    56.40    94.90    69.58P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       29   46  +11       0.91    54.51     3.12    71.36     5.79    14.00     0.50     6.00    53.02    17.36P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     27   44  +13       6.86    81.27    12.99    70.40     6.16    13.61     0.54     5.36    46.55    12.47P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           28   44   +9      -0.05    49.66     0.65    71.34     5.99    12.89     0.59     6.47    52.17    18.07P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        29   44   -1       4.41    71.08    -0.65    66.50     5.72    -2.22     0.05     0.93    19.76     4.33P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         28   42   +7       3.09    65.28     6.38    65.47     6.00     5.16     0.04     0.96    17.98     4.16P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon          29   40   -5      -0.13    49.51    -5.55    64.48     5.73    -3.46     0.00     0.32    11.78     2.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Oldham           28   39   +6      -5.64    24.25    -3.30    66.68     6.05    10.34     0.10     1.44    24.55     7.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Newport_County   27   39   -7       5.21    75.64    -1.62    62.16     6.13   -11.57     0.02     0.25     6.93     1.28P    0.14R    0.02  
Crewe            29   38   -5       1.63    58.81     0.26    60.61     5.73    -5.98     0.00     0.04     3.67     0.65P    0.21R    0.03  
Grimsby          28   34   -6       0.97    56.10     1.56    55.44     5.80   -10.42     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.11P    1.84R    0.34  
Northampton      28   33   -1      -7.04    19.49    -3.35    59.39     6.06     1.42     0.00     0.04     3.32     0.85P    0.44R    0.07  
Crawley_Town     29   33   -8      -2.55    37.93    -1.59    52.74     5.52   -13.63     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P    4.78R    1.08  
Port_Vale        28   32   -9      -2.25    39.03    -3.36    54.44     5.79   -12.24     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P    3.01R    0.59  
Cambridge_Utd    29   32  -21      -1.31    44.22   -11.36    51.68     5.54   -26.50     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    8.45R    1.90  
Yeovil           27   30   -2      -3.71    31.89     2.71    53.88     5.98    -5.18     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.08P    3.53R    0.73  
Cheltenham       28   29  -11      -4.11    30.32    -2.51    51.58     5.90   -14.37     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    8.14R    2.21  
Morecambe        29   28  -17      -3.45    33.26    -4.59    46.59     5.50   -23.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    29.08R   10.20  
Macclesfield     29   27  -18      -0.52    48.57     0.38    42.74     5.27   -29.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.99R   26.92  
Notts_County     29   21  -30     -11.32     6.89   -17.56    39.85     5.63   -37.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.35R   55.92  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 19 January 2019, AFC_Fylde 2 0 Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      30   57  +27       5.34    74.32    11.55    85.63     5.44    37.02    42.64    94.65    58.83P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     30   57  +20      12.45    93.63    14.76    80.79     5.51    22.91    11.75    76.59    24.56P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       30   56  +25       7.79    81.75    14.12    82.73     5.79    32.31    22.17    85.65    37.83P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          30   53  +24       1.75    58.15     8.91    81.24     5.50    33.52    15.57    81.77    36.32P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            30   53  +14       7.44    82.37     7.29    77.99     5.40    18.60     4.19    58.01    17.25P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     30   50  +17       4.82    70.91    10.99    74.28     5.76    20.65     1.74    33.61     8.26P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      29   49   +6       6.68    79.69     2.18    74.12     5.73     8.93     1.25    29.03     6.91P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   30   47  +14       0.81    54.05     6.31    72.01     5.62    18.53     0.40    20.72     5.48P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          30   47   +8       2.26    60.90     2.43    70.28     5.58    10.10     0.21    12.10     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Eastleigh          30   46   -4       7.84    83.00     0.27    66.89     5.46    -5.68     0.04     3.29     0.53P    0.03R    0.00  
Bromley            30   40   -1      -2.04    40.66    -2.37    62.55     5.62    -0.21     0.00     0.69     0.15P    0.43R    0.00  
Barrow             30   40   -2       0.85    54.69     0.46    60.01     5.43    -4.42     0.00     0.18     0.02P    1.17R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          30   38   -1      -5.33    26.04    -4.44    61.34     5.59     1.08     0.00     0.42     0.10P    0.81R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       30   38   -3      -3.83    32.06    -4.58    59.23     5.51    -3.67     0.00     0.13     0.04P    1.81R    0.00  
Hartlepool         30   36   -9      -2.18    40.08    -4.90    55.49     5.38   -12.31     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.26R    0.02  
Barnet             26   35   -6      -4.09    29.87   -11.38    64.71     6.43    -2.54     0.03     3.13     0.87P    0.48R    0.00  
Halifax            29   34   -5      -0.27    49.37     1.87    53.94     5.48    -9.18     0.00     0.01     0.00P   12.48R    0.08  
Havant_&_Wville    30   32   -9      -2.16    40.65     2.90    49.25     5.56   -16.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.78R    1.07  
Dover_Athletic     30   32  -16      -6.79    20.29   -12.83    53.49     5.56   -16.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.06R    0.22  
Maidenhead         30   31  -21      -1.91    41.32    -7.98    47.17     5.24   -30.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.97R    2.55  
Chesterfield       29   29   -8     -12.40     6.07   -10.75    54.08     5.83    -5.30     0.00     0.01     0.00P   12.71R    0.21  
Aldershot          29   27  -23      -7.34    17.24   -15.44    47.38     5.60   -26.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.47R    3.62  
Maidstone_United   30   25  -23      -5.45    24.35    -7.07    40.67     5.11   -32.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.91R   23.13  
Braintree_Town     30   22  -24      -5.40    24.97    -2.29    35.71     5.10   -37.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.63R   69.10