Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 20 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 14 January 2019, Man_City 3 0 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        22   57  +40      10.14    96.17    11.79    93.43     4.73    64.71    60.52    96.14    99.56    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   53  +42       1.78    60.98     2.66    91.13     4.49    71.72    38.16    93.06    99.03    99.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   48  +24       3.30    69.39     0.21    80.78     5.02    41.77     1.12     8.28    65.63    90.36    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   47  +23       4.05    73.26     3.31    76.81     5.20    35.27     0.18     2.24    27.26    69.82    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   41  +14       1.62    59.06    -1.21    69.86     5.35    24.87     0.00     0.10     3.48    16.38    96.94     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   41  +12       0.07    49.81    -4.80    71.52     5.29    25.43     0.01     0.18     5.04    23.60    98.27     0.00     0.00  
Watford          22   32   +0       5.29    79.10     6.55    50.63     5.20    -7.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        22   31   +1       0.46    53.12     1.30    52.09     5.33    -1.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.57     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         22   31   -2       3.39    69.95     3.59    50.48     5.28    -7.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.63     0.03R    0.00  
Everton          22   30   +2      -1.24    42.84     1.67    51.29     5.45     0.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.27     0.03R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    22   29   -5       4.25    75.04     4.47    49.12     5.43    -8.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.11R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   27  -11       2.03    63.01    -0.08    45.65     5.29   -18.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.76R    0.00  
Brighton         22   26   -6       1.55    60.54     3.32    44.74     5.16   -11.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.82R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   22   -8      -3.85    27.93    -0.66    41.06     5.19   -13.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.38R    0.07  
Burnley          22   21  -20      -3.09    31.85    -9.46    36.26     4.97   -31.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.70R    0.50  
Southampton      22   19  -16      -4.42    24.68    -3.93    38.61     5.32   -20.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.38R    0.31  
Cardiff          22   19  -22      -0.79    46.38    -3.59    32.82     4.95   -36.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.41R    2.75  
Newcastle        22   18  -15      -6.22    16.09    -5.52    36.62     5.19   -20.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.06R    0.64  
Fulham           22   14  -29      -5.05    20.46    -6.05    26.68     4.88   -46.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.79R   24.16  
Huddersfield     22   11  -24      -6.81    11.10    -3.56    21.95     4.39   -42.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.51R   71.57  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Birmingham 1 2 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    27   54  +18      11.69    93.52    10.20    83.82     6.20    23.63    35.95    58.29    95.70    66.49P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   50  +18       6.91    81.19     8.98    79.77     6.12    23.58    15.31    33.02    87.49    45.81P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         27   50  +14       9.17    87.70     8.44    80.34     6.22    20.50    16.95    35.51    88.12    46.47P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       27   47  +20      -1.78    40.49     1.84    80.78     6.23    31.94    21.20    42.11    90.28    58.24P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   46  +11       1.64    58.38     0.49    77.19     6.05    18.33     7.26    18.74    76.28    35.74P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   43   +4       1.82    59.43    -2.14    73.81     6.16    11.05     2.16     7.03    54.85    18.58P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    27   41   +5       1.62    58.72     1.60    67.07     6.12     4.95     0.20     0.94    16.52     4.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      27   39   +9       4.69    73.49    12.80    63.30     6.10     6.33     0.04     0.19     6.70     1.27P    0.05R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   39   +8       2.15    61.44     8.39    65.12     6.14     8.00     0.07     0.41    11.00     2.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Hull            27   39   +6      -0.88    45.68     1.85    65.98     6.13     7.16     0.10     0.59    13.49     3.38P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             27   39   -2       4.77    73.43     2.49    63.11     6.04    -5.06     0.03     0.13     5.36     1.01P    0.09R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   38   +6      -4.87    26.66    -2.84    68.63     6.31    12.87     0.47     1.98    26.00     8.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea         27   37   +4      -4.97    26.59    -3.33    66.59     6.21     9.16     0.22     0.86    15.96     4.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   37   -6       2.65    63.69    -1.61    62.38     6.29    -7.20     0.01     0.09     4.62     0.95P    0.21R    0.00  
Stoke           27   35   -3      -4.16    29.85    -6.08    62.34     6.28    -0.95     0.02     0.10     4.84     1.26P    0.20R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed       27   32  -13      -1.23    44.22    -6.96    56.83     6.19   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.11P    2.14R    0.05  
Brentford       27   31   +2      -8.15    14.64    -0.85    58.69     6.26     4.36     0.00     0.01     1.60     0.43P    0.93R    0.01  
Preston         27   30   -5      -6.62    19.42    -4.11    55.55     6.18    -5.92     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.08P    2.67R    0.09  
Wigan           27   29  -12      -5.25    25.34    -7.95    54.27     6.17   -13.01     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P    4.52R    0.24  
Millwall        27   28  -10      -5.91    22.21    -5.11    50.57     5.97   -15.36     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   11.45R    0.73  
Rotherham       27   25  -17      -1.83    41.40    -0.78    42.81     5.80   -30.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.48R   11.74  
Reading         27   23  -11      -7.67    15.24    -0.86    44.15     5.93   -18.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.39R    8.11  
Bolton          27   22  -22      -2.24    38.52    -3.03    38.98     5.49   -35.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.29R   32.41  
Ipswich         27   18  -24     -10.66     6.46   -11.41    37.17     5.74   -34.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.52R   46.61  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Accrington_Stanley 0 0 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           27   57  +21      13.21    95.69    11.07    87.16     6.21    27.07    20.03    42.15    97.86    54.40P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                27   53  +25       6.87    80.56    11.35    86.90     6.26    36.83    20.34    43.94    97.71    58.73P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           26   52  +22       4.29    70.72     3.60    89.90     6.34    38.04    38.85    63.01    99.08    74.90P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             28   50  +15       5.40    75.11     5.84    79.69     6.07    22.41     2.24     7.77    82.82    25.15P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             26   49  +21       2.37    61.70     4.59    86.03     6.37    35.31    17.21    38.06    97.00    57.69P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         27   47  +13       4.20    70.37     4.35    76.71     6.28    18.37     1.08     3.75    66.82    16.77P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            27   45  +14       3.72    68.20     7.77    73.25     6.22    17.13     0.25     1.29    43.15     9.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Coventry             28   39   -2       4.37    71.39     2.83    60.77     5.81    -6.04     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.19P    2.33R    0.09  
Blackpool            26   38   +2       2.04    61.23     1.24    65.24     6.26     1.94     0.00     0.03     6.80     1.23P    0.56R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       27   35   +5      -3.37    33.44     3.13    62.21     6.24     6.73     0.00     0.01     3.10     0.62P    1.75R    0.09  
Burton_Albion        27   35   +0      -3.16    35.00    -1.68    59.35     6.16    -2.56     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.21P    4.60R    0.24  
Southend             27   35   +0      -2.36    38.45    -0.37    59.99     6.18    -1.64     0.00     0.00     1.40     0.27P    3.93R    0.17  
Wycombe              27   35   -3       2.67    63.83     4.63    57.43     6.18    -8.90     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.07P    9.71R    0.74  
Accrington_Stanley   26   35   -8       4.77    74.09    -0.15    57.46     6.22   -15.53     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.06P   10.04R    0.74  
Scunthorpe           28   33  -17      -3.58    33.06   -13.67    56.47     6.04   -19.26     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P   13.42R    1.21  
Walsall              27   32  -14       1.03    56.35    -4.60    54.19     6.01   -19.89     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   22.39R    2.58  
Gillingham           27   31   -6      -2.81    36.47    -0.65    55.62     6.18    -8.51     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P   15.41R    1.60  
Shrewsbury           27   30   -6      -6.15    20.98    -4.96    56.13     6.17    -5.71     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P   13.11R    1.21  
Rochdale             28   30  -24      -0.44    48.55   -10.71    49.85     5.80   -32.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    50.43R   10.88  
Bristol_Rovers       27   28   -4      -6.72    19.16    -0.63    51.62     6.06    -7.42     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   33.38R    5.36  
Oxford_Utd           27   27  -10      -6.94    18.63    -4.84    50.65     6.19   -13.87     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   40.84R    8.03  
Bradford             27   27  -12      -6.31    20.45    -6.14    51.21     6.16   -14.80     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   37.97R    6.91  
Plymouth             27   27  -15      -4.66    27.55    -6.27    48.65     6.02   -22.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    55.84R   13.73  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   23  -17      -5.95    20.77    -5.72    43.34     5.84   -25.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.28R   46.40  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 January 2019, Mansfield 1 0 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     26   52  +21       8.57    87.23     9.40    84.83     6.37    29.04    35.63    75.86    97.78    81.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             28   49  +21       0.04    49.78     4.72    80.93     6.06    32.14    15.66    56.57    94.14    68.08P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        27   48  +18       3.04    65.31     6.55    79.66     6.05    26.19    10.51    45.30    91.18    58.93P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   47  +21      -0.24    48.32     3.59    83.91     6.36    35.07    32.36    73.22    97.23    81.38P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       28   46  +12       1.95    59.88     3.60    73.07     5.98    15.48     1.34    11.02    60.42    23.17P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         28   45  +10       1.81    59.01     2.94    72.73     6.06    14.60     1.16    10.05    58.16    20.96P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   44  +14       7.85    85.23    13.43    71.87     6.34    14.78     1.23     9.28    52.31    16.75P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           27   44  +10       1.09    55.70     1.28    72.98     6.24    14.30     1.49    11.42    59.18    23.31P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         27   42   +8       4.08    70.05     6.85    67.36     6.27     6.92     0.20     2.31    25.05     6.66P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage        28   41   -2       3.35    67.04    -0.86    64.62     5.89    -3.58     0.02     0.53    11.34     2.44P    0.02R    0.00  
Oldham           27   39   +7      -4.54    28.15    -2.74    69.02     6.28    12.77     0.36     3.94    35.29    12.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Swindon          28   37   -6      -1.41    43.52    -6.10    62.40     5.96    -5.17     0.00     0.17     6.13     1.39P    0.08R    0.01  
Newport_County   26   36   -8       3.83    69.92    -2.11    59.99     6.32   -13.45     0.02     0.12     3.44     0.63P    0.43R    0.06  
Crewe            28   35   -6       0.03    51.00    -0.69    57.79     5.87    -8.80     0.00     0.01     1.26     0.20P    0.70R    0.11  
Grimsby          27   34   -5       1.68    59.95     1.67    56.19     5.97   -10.45     0.00     0.01     0.74     0.10P    1.31R    0.23  
Northampton      27   33   +0      -6.12    22.27    -3.07    61.20     6.27     3.13     0.01     0.18     5.49     1.51P    0.23R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     28   33   -7      -1.47    43.26    -0.99    54.53     5.80   -12.05     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    2.48R    0.53  
Cheltenham       27   29   -9      -3.73    31.72    -2.01    52.83     6.11   -12.62     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    5.44R    1.38  
Port_Vale        27   29  -10      -3.79    31.28    -4.15    52.52     6.01   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    5.71R    1.35  
Cambridge_Utd    28   29  -22      -2.61    37.31   -11.88    49.77     5.76   -27.84     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.59R    3.98  
Morecambe        28   28  -16      -2.33    38.85    -4.02    48.04     5.70   -22.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   19.65R    6.42  
Yeovil           26   27   -4      -4.57    27.37     1.88    52.32     6.22    -7.17     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    6.42R    1.81  
Macclesfield     28   24  -19      -2.15    39.64    -0.56    40.40     5.39   -31.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.18R   44.12  
Notts_County     28   21  -28     -10.71     7.43   -16.73    41.16     5.83   -35.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.74R   39.97  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 January 2019, Maidstone_United 2 4 Maidenhead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      29   57  +29       6.17    77.88    12.77    87.36     5.62    39.60    52.50    96.84    66.36P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       29   55  +25       8.21    83.70    14.07    83.49     5.98    32.89    22.43    87.81    38.69P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   54  +19      11.28    91.93    14.43    79.35     5.77    22.20     7.08    68.11    18.95P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   53  +16       7.94    84.88     8.16    79.45     5.56    20.79     6.22    68.57    21.76P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          29   50  +22       0.89    54.08     7.99    79.46     5.66    31.27     8.05    71.88    27.75P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      28   49   +7       7.58    83.44     2.47    75.70     5.95    10.30     2.25    40.37    10.10P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     29   47  +15       4.13    68.77    10.40    72.84     6.03    18.92     0.90    26.81     6.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Gateshead          29   46   +8       2.52    62.39     2.26    70.38     5.74     9.72     0.21    13.65     3.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   44  +12      -0.28    48.84     5.11    69.85     5.79    15.79     0.17    13.05     3.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   43   -5       6.34    78.93    -0.62    65.08     5.60    -6.89     0.01     1.93     0.36P    0.14R    0.00  
Bromley            29   39   -1      -1.74    41.72    -2.51    62.86     5.82    -0.34     0.00     1.04     0.19P    0.45R    0.00  
Barrow             29   39   -2       1.21    56.74     0.52    60.54     5.65    -4.21     0.00     0.37     0.08P    1.16R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   38   -1      -2.75    36.77    -3.02    61.41     5.73    -0.50     0.01     0.57     0.14P    0.88R    0.00  
Hartlepool         29   36   -7      -1.79    41.65    -4.46    56.72     5.56   -10.53     0.00     0.05     0.01P    5.05R    0.01  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.81    30.49    -8.93    67.73     6.62     3.80     0.18     8.58     2.58P    0.15R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   35   -4      -5.69    24.32    -5.65    59.64     5.82    -1.99     0.00     0.33     0.07P    2.20R    0.00  
Halifax            28   33   -5      -0.25    49.43     1.54    53.90     5.68    -9.78     0.00     0.03     0.01P   13.84R    0.06  
Dover_Athletic     29   31  -16      -6.39    21.05   -12.78    54.18     5.77   -16.19     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.22R    0.12  
Maidenhead         29   31  -20      -1.08    45.41    -7.85    48.40     5.43   -29.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.28R    0.93  
Havant_&_Wville    29   29  -11      -2.96    36.40     2.22    46.45     5.66   -20.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.28R    2.06  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.67    19.03   -14.47    49.03     5.80   -24.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.98R    1.25  
Chesterfield       28   26  -10     -13.29     4.46   -11.64    52.14     6.04    -7.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.95R    0.35  
Maidstone_United   29   25  -20      -5.12    25.39    -5.73    42.25     5.34   -29.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.86R    9.14  
Braintree_Town     29   19  -28      -5.78    22.22    -4.26    32.64     5.19   -43.35     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.54R   86.07