Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 19 January 2019 at 22:00:01 GMT

Premier League    (Latest match accounted for: Monday 14 January 2019, Man_City 3 0 Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ------------------- Percentage chance --------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1

Liverpool        22   57  +40      10.32    96.52    12.09    93.29     4.75    64.41    60.06    96.07    99.56    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_City         22   53  +42       1.87    61.59     2.95    91.05     4.51    71.49    38.44    92.65    98.99    99.86   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham        22   48  +24       3.29    69.21     0.20    80.76     5.05    41.76     1.28     8.83    65.52    89.96    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea          22   47  +23       4.01    72.98     3.28    76.82     5.18    35.27     0.22     2.18    27.15    69.75    99.86     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal          22   41  +14       1.56    58.82    -1.25    69.91     5.36    24.99     0.00     0.09     3.68    16.69    96.96     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd          22   41  +12       0.12    49.80    -4.78    71.55     5.28    25.43     0.00     0.17     5.11    23.76    98.43     0.00     0.00  
Watford          22   32   +0       5.27    79.20     6.47    50.68     5.16    -7.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.02R    0.00  
Leicester        22   31   +1       0.44    52.97     1.25    52.05     5.30    -1.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.49     0.01R    0.00  
West_Ham         22   31   -2       3.39    69.78     3.52    50.43     5.26    -7.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.59     0.02R    0.00  
Everton          22   30   +2      -1.25    42.74     1.63    51.26     5.42     0.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.28     0.02R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    22   29   -5       4.17    74.53     4.30    49.18     5.44    -7.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.09R    0.00  
Bournemouth      22   27  -11       2.05    63.10    -0.05    45.63     5.27   -18.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.76R    0.00  
Brighton         22   26   -6       1.76    61.85     3.66    44.63     5.12   -11.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.84R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   22   22   -8      -3.92    27.59    -0.77    41.12     5.24   -13.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     4.62R    0.05  
Burnley          22   21  -20      -3.11    31.80    -9.47    36.32     4.95   -31.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.41R    0.50  
Southampton      22   19  -16      -4.55    23.65    -4.10    38.59     5.29   -20.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.06R    0.28  
Cardiff          22   19  -22      -0.73    46.57    -3.43    32.78     4.98   -36.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.99R    3.05  
Newcastle        22   18  -15      -6.21    16.18    -5.48    36.68     5.20   -20.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.00R    0.60  
Fulham           22   14  -29      -5.10    20.19    -6.22    26.71     4.87   -46.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.72R   24.00  
Huddersfield     22   11  -24      -6.92    10.68    -3.79    22.02     4.43   -42.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.46R   71.52  



Championship    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Birmingham 1 2 Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1

Leeds_United    27   54  +18      11.65    93.38    10.12    83.89     6.25    23.73    36.08    58.54    95.94    66.77P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd       27   50  +18       6.88    80.92     8.93    79.79     6.15    23.64    15.46    33.37    87.34    45.95P    0.00     0.00  
Norwich         27   50  +14       9.23    87.88     8.51    80.38     6.25    20.56    17.11    35.67    88.41    46.54P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom       27   47  +20      -1.69    41.07     1.97    80.78     6.25    31.89    21.05    41.97    90.50    57.97P    0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   27   46  +11       1.70    58.75     0.54    77.19     6.02    18.34     7.11    18.50    76.87    35.90P    0.00     0.00  
Derby           27   43   +4       1.74    58.77    -2.23    73.71     6.16    10.96     1.98     6.86    54.81    18.69P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City    27   41   +5       1.87    59.63     1.93    66.94     6.14     4.78     0.19     0.84    16.14     4.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Birmingham      27   39   +9       4.58    73.11    12.68    63.33     6.10     6.39     0.06     0.22     6.63     1.35P    0.05R    0.00  
Nott'm_Forest   27   39   +8       2.16    61.24     8.42    65.08     6.17     7.95     0.09     0.39    11.20     2.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Hull            27   39   +6      -0.76    46.51     2.07    65.91     6.18     7.03     0.14     0.61    13.48     3.33P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR             27   39   -2       4.87    74.06     2.65    63.04     6.04    -5.17     0.04     0.15     5.08     0.94P    0.08R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     27   38   +6      -4.77    26.94    -2.66    68.58     6.29    12.80     0.47     1.86    25.57     8.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea         27   37   +4      -4.76    27.33    -3.01    66.43     6.22     8.95     0.18     0.76    15.49     4.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Blackburn       27   37   -6       2.36    62.53    -2.07    62.61     6.26    -6.85     0.02     0.11     4.98     1.08P    0.16R    0.00  
Stoke           27   35   -3      -4.13    30.12    -6.04    62.31     6.28    -0.98     0.02     0.12     4.77     1.28P    0.19R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed       27   32  -13      -1.07    45.03    -6.64    56.67     6.15   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.10P    2.16R    0.10  
Brentford       27   31   +2      -8.43    13.86    -1.33    58.88     6.26     4.71     0.00     0.01     1.66     0.45P    0.80R    0.03  
Preston         27   30   -5      -6.78    18.96    -4.31    55.63     6.18    -5.79     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.09P    2.49R    0.10  
Wigan           27   29  -12      -5.21    25.34    -7.89    54.19     6.21   -13.21     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.05P    4.75R    0.27  
Millwall        27   28  -10      -5.99    21.86    -5.31    50.67     6.03   -15.22     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   11.34R    0.81  
Rotherham       27   25  -17      -1.60    42.70    -0.50    42.72     5.75   -30.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.92R   11.96  
Reading         27   23  -11      -7.69    15.16    -0.95    44.13     5.95   -18.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.93R    8.08  
Bolton          27   22  -22      -2.38    37.55    -3.24    39.02     5.51   -35.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.81R   32.30  
Ipswich         27   18  -24     -10.83     6.00   -11.65    37.24     5.73   -34.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.26R   46.33  



League 1    (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 12 January 2019, Accrington_Stanley 0 0 Bristol_Rovers; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1

Portsmouth           27   57  +21      13.20    95.64    10.99    87.24     6.20    27.20    20.42    42.81    97.78    54.95P    0.00     0.00  
Luton                27   53  +25       6.95    80.91    11.42    86.73     6.25    36.59    19.71    43.03    97.54    57.76P    0.00     0.00  
Sunderland           26   52  +22       4.41    71.22     3.77    89.86     6.35    37.92    39.13    63.26    99.03    75.02P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton             28   50  +15       5.23    74.57     5.58    79.73     6.01    22.46     2.33     8.11    82.63    25.54P    0.00     0.00  
Barnsley             26   49  +21       2.60    62.80     5.01    85.84     6.40    34.97    17.07    37.43    96.73    57.04P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         27   47  +13       4.10    69.75     4.22    76.69     6.29    18.40     1.03     3.94    66.46    16.92P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster            27   45  +14       3.68    68.05     7.66    73.39     6.23    17.34     0.31     1.37    43.92     9.98P    0.00     0.00  
Coventry             28   39   -2       4.49    71.83     3.02    60.70     5.85    -6.18     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.19P    2.59R    0.08  
Blackpool            26   38   +2       1.85    60.17     0.98    65.39     6.29     2.15     0.00     0.04     7.13     1.31P    0.48R    0.02  
Fleetwood_Town       27   35   +5      -3.31    33.58     3.23    62.24     6.27     6.76     0.00     0.01     3.24     0.61P    1.74R    0.09  
Burton_Albion        27   35   +0      -3.29    34.29    -1.86    59.52     6.24    -2.34     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.23P    4.52R    0.20  
Southend             27   35   +0      -2.48    37.91    -0.55    60.07     6.19    -1.49     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.21P    3.79R    0.17  
Wycombe              27   35   -3       2.68    64.16     4.63    57.41     6.19    -8.91     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.03P    9.70R    0.74  
Accrington_Stanley   26   35   -8       4.83    74.44    -0.09    57.40     6.24   -15.58     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.06P   10.32R    0.78  
Scunthorpe           28   33  -17      -3.47    33.42   -13.57    56.41     6.02   -19.33     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P   13.22R    1.26  
Walsall              27   32  -14       1.12    56.70    -4.50    54.19     6.02   -19.87     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   22.70R    2.64  
Gillingham           27   31   -6      -2.83    36.36    -0.69    55.69     6.13    -8.48     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   14.76R    1.57  
Shrewsbury           27   30   -6      -6.16    21.06    -4.97    56.13     6.13    -5.72     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P   12.95R    1.12  
Rochdale             28   30  -24      -0.38    49.08   -10.63    49.83     5.77   -32.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.22R   10.60  
Bristol_Rovers       27   28   -4      -6.79    18.72    -0.74    51.69     6.11    -7.29     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   33.02R    5.15  
Oxford_Utd           27   27  -10      -7.00    18.36    -4.85    50.63     6.17   -13.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   41.11R    8.07  
Bradford             27   27  -12      -6.34    20.37    -6.11    51.12     6.16   -14.94     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   38.63R    6.86  
Plymouth             27   27  -15      -4.56    27.85    -6.09    48.61     6.03   -22.35     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   56.06R   14.05  
AFC_Wimbledon        27   23  -17      -6.03    20.66    -5.87    43.29     5.84   -25.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.18R   46.60  



League 2    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 January 2019, Mansfield 1 0 Crawley_Town; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     --------------- Percentage chance ---------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1

Lincoln_City     26   52  +21       8.49    87.14     9.25    84.94     6.34    29.22    36.43    75.93    97.96    81.58P    0.00     0.00  
Bury             28   49  +21      -0.05    49.32     4.53    81.07     6.04    32.31    16.08    57.44    94.26    68.90P    0.00     0.00  
Mansfield        27   48  +18       3.11    65.76     6.66    79.70     6.03    26.24    10.78    45.30    91.27    58.72P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   47  +21      -0.16    48.54     3.72    83.71     6.35    34.79    30.75    72.32    97.03    80.86P    0.00     0.00  
Colchester       28   46  +12       1.94    59.73     3.64    73.06     5.95    15.53     1.32    11.08    60.53    22.91P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         28   45  +10       1.62    58.14     2.70    72.75     6.13    14.65     1.23    10.29    57.95    21.37P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green     26   44  +14       7.75    84.79    13.32    71.98     6.35    14.89     1.28     9.44    53.46    17.26P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter           27   44  +10       1.00    55.15     1.14    73.04     6.21    14.39     1.58    11.42    59.20    23.30P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         27   42   +8       4.06    69.98     6.80    67.35     6.28     6.94     0.21     2.28    24.75     6.72P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage        28   41   -2       3.20    66.50    -1.05    64.74     5.89    -3.43     0.03     0.52    11.62     2.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Oldham           27   39   +7      -4.41    28.81    -2.59    68.89     6.21    12.59     0.30     3.43    34.31    11.93P    0.00     0.00  
Swindon          28   37   -6      -1.44    43.24    -6.16    62.37     5.93    -5.17     0.01     0.18     5.79     1.33P    0.09R    0.01  
Newport_County   26   36   -8       3.76    69.75    -2.21    60.10     6.30   -13.29     0.00     0.15     3.54     0.65P    0.47R    0.07  
Crewe            28   35   -6       0.06    51.10    -0.60    57.90     5.89    -8.68     0.00     0.02     1.29     0.23P    0.67R    0.10  
Grimsby          27   34   -5       1.80    60.43     1.80    56.09     5.95   -10.59     0.00     0.01     0.67     0.10P    1.34R    0.21  
Northampton      27   33   +0      -6.01    22.61    -2.92    61.12     6.30     2.96     0.01     0.16     5.47     1.45P    0.21R    0.03  
Crawley_Town     28   33   -7      -1.53    42.73    -1.04    54.54     5.81   -12.08     0.00     0.01     0.35     0.08P    2.46R    0.49  
Cheltenham       27   29   -9      -3.80    31.31    -2.12    52.88     6.05   -12.53     0.00     0.01     0.21     0.05P    5.31R    1.34  
Port_Vale        27   29  -10      -3.63    31.70    -3.90    52.35     5.98   -13.97     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.04P    6.02R    1.46  
Cambridge_Utd    28   29  -22      -2.62    37.37   -11.91    49.73     5.73   -27.92     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.34R    3.94  
Morecambe        28   28  -16      -2.26    38.98    -3.91    48.02     5.69   -22.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.90R    6.67  
Yeovil           26   27   -4      -4.58    27.33     1.92    52.33     6.21    -7.15     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.04P    6.28R    1.69  
Macclesfield     28   24  -19      -2.17    39.61    -0.64    40.37     5.37   -31.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.95R   44.13  
Notts_County     28   21  -28     -10.55     7.92   -16.47    41.13     5.79   -35.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.94R   39.85  



National League    (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 15 January 2019, Maidstone_United 2 4 Maidenhead; Check up-to-date)
                  -- Current --     --------- Luck ---------   ------- Expected -------     ---------- Percentage chance -----------
Team              Pld  Pts   GD     Points   %(pts)       GD   Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot4     Bot1

Leyton_Orient      29   57  +29       6.13    77.86    12.77    87.35     5.61    39.58    52.99    96.89    66.91P    0.00     0.00  
Salford_City       29   55  +25       8.11    83.33    13.96    83.44     5.98    32.83    22.64    87.77    39.05P    0.00     0.00  
Solihull_Moors     29   54  +19      11.23    91.97    14.35    79.38     5.73    22.24     6.96    68.78    18.93P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham            29   53  +16       8.01    84.61     8.24    79.34     5.54    20.68     5.91    68.07    21.54P    0.00     0.00  
AFC_Fylde          29   50  +22       1.03    54.79     8.18    79.40     5.66    31.18     7.94    71.42    27.12P    0.00     0.00  
Sutton_United      28   49   +7       7.70    83.62     2.69    75.62     5.96    10.13     2.10    40.25     9.95P    0.00     0.00  
Harrogate_Town     29   47  +15       4.16    68.77    10.44    72.78     6.01    18.80     0.83    26.68     6.43P    0.00     0.00  
Gateshead          29   46   +8       2.44    62.02     2.14    70.51     5.77     9.91     0.24    14.37     3.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United   29   44  +12      -0.17    49.16     5.29    69.75     5.80    15.67     0.22    12.72     3.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastleigh          29   43   -5       6.29    78.61    -0.70    65.09     5.61    -6.88     0.01     1.90     0.34P    0.14R    0.00  
Bromley            29   39   -1      -1.77    41.59    -2.52    62.88     5.81    -0.33     0.00     1.01     0.22P    0.51R    0.00  
Barrow             29   39   -2       1.25    56.82     0.49    60.58     5.63    -4.13     0.00     0.34     0.07P    1.15R    0.00  
Boreham_Wood       29   38   -1      -2.62    37.27    -2.84    61.38     5.70    -0.53     0.00     0.54     0.13P    0.92R    0.00  
Hartlepool         29   36   -7      -1.78    41.48    -4.49    56.82     5.58   -10.40     0.00     0.06     0.02P    5.00R    0.01  
Barnet             25   35   -2      -3.83    30.65    -8.98    67.74     6.65     3.83     0.16     8.91     2.65P    0.14R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red          29   35   -4      -5.70    24.02    -5.57    59.67     5.81    -2.03     0.00     0.27     0.06P    2.16R    0.00  
Halifax            28   33   -5      -0.26    49.57     1.47    53.85     5.65    -9.78     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.90R    0.05  
Dover_Athletic     29   31  -16      -6.33    21.19   -12.72    54.09     5.73   -16.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.58R    0.12  
Maidenhead         29   31  -20      -1.11    45.23    -7.88    48.46     5.43   -29.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.14R    0.88  
Havant_&_Wville    29   29  -11      -3.24    35.38     1.80    46.65     5.68   -20.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.28R    1.74  
Aldershot          28   27  -21      -6.70    19.02   -14.53    49.01     5.84   -24.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.71R    1.28  
Chesterfield       28   26  -10     -13.32     4.54   -11.71    52.14     6.02    -7.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.21R    0.38  
Maidstone_United   29   25  -20      -5.16    25.15    -5.78    42.29     5.37   -29.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.58R    9.05  
Braintree_Town     29   19  -28      -5.71    22.25    -4.12    32.59     5.15   -43.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.58R   86.48